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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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 Posted: 03/20/20 11:10 pm ::: |
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| tfan wrote: |
| Saw that one of the reasons (besides extensive testing) that the South Korean death rate has been comparatively low is that they had a large portion of their cases from an outbreak at a very large church (possibly all from what they call “patient 31”) and the parishioners skew to being female and in their 20’s and 30’s. |
Also, S. Korea had recently and completely revamped, streamlined and strengthened its epidemic response system after getting hammered by the WHO for its poor showing in the MERS outbreak in 2015. |
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/20/20 11:42 pm ::: |
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| tfan wrote: |
| Saw that one of the reasons (besides extensive testing) that the South Korean death rate has been comparatively low is that they had a large portion of their cases from an outbreak at a very large church (possibly all from what they call “patient 31”) and the parishioners skew to being female and in their 20’s and 30’s. |
South Korea is in some ways not an ideal comparison in this context. For example, it is geographically smaller than Kentucky. With a VERY sealed land border (N. Korea), and surrounded by ocean. However, on that small land area, they have a population greater than California and North Carolina combined. That's a significantly higher population density than we have here.
Yet....they HAVE controlled their pandemic admirably. Yes...they were better prepared. In talking with my Korean friend -- we chat almost daily now -- I learned something unusual. I reiterated my surprise that, in his crowded city, he knew no one who'd tested positive. He told me that is private information, and that all he knew was that he had no family affected. I asked, "What about if a person tests positive, and authorities want to know of recent contacts for preventive reasons?"
His only explanation kinda blew my mind: He said that, for example, if someone tested positive and, say, they rode a city bus, government officials could track others on that bus via their "payment cards", i.e., most (all?) use public transport with ID cards that can be traced via government tracking systems. It sounded a bit "Big Brother"-ish to me, but....might be a useful tool, if it's as he says.
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Last edited by Howee on 03/21/20 11:21 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Genero36
Joined: 24 Apr 2005
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Genero36
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FrozenLVFan
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Randy
Joined: 08 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 03/21/20 10:52 am ::: |
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| Interesting that the age distribution peaks between 50 and 59. Could that just reflect the age distribution of the population in general?
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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 03/21/20 10:37 pm ::: |
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Update 10: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update
U.S.:
- confirmed cases increased by 6,950 (35%) from 19,624 to 26,574
- deaths increased by 76 from 260 to 336
- death rate decreased from 1.32% to 1.26%
U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:
?? – 3/11 2.89%
02 – 3/12 2.41%
07 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
The U.S. leapfrogged Iran, Germany and Spain to become 3rd in the world in confirmed cases, likely due to the rapid ramp up in testing, and is 6th in total deaths. The U.S. will probably move further up in both categories since it is the 3rd most populous country in the world.
Italy set its second consecutive single day world record with 793 deaths today, now having a death rate of:
4,825/53,578 = 9.00%, by far the worst in the world. Italy now accounts for 37% of the world's 13,044 deaths. Italy and China account for 62% of the deaths.
There have been 107,763 flu deaths in the world since Jan. 1, 2020. |
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 03/22/20 8:15 am ::: |
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https://covidtracking.com/
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| The COVID Tracking Project collects information from 50 US states, the District of Columbia, and 5 other US territories to provide the most comprehensive testing data we can collect for the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. We attempt to include positive and negative results, pending tests, and total people tested for each state or district currently reporting that data. |
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Conway Gamecock
Joined: 23 Jan 2015
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| Posted: 03/22/20 9:02 am ::: |
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The CDC estimates there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses so far this season, and 23,000 deaths.
Mar 20 CDC Flu view report
That's a 1,652 illness to 1 death ratio
Today, there are 26,909 coronavirus-19 cases in the United States, and 349 deaths.
That's a 77 illness to 1 death ratio
If the COVID-19 virus equals the influenza numbers of 38 million cases, and the death rate remains the same, that would mean 493,506 American citizens will succumb to COVID-19 this year.
And there is a vaccine for the flu. There won't be a vaccine for the COVID-19 until sometime early in 2021, by CDC's projections.....
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 03/22/20 9:27 am ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
https://covidtracking.com/
| Quote: |
| The COVID Tracking Project collects information from 50 US states, the District of Columbia, and 5 other US territories to provide the most comprehensive testing data we can collect for the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. We attempt to include positive and negative results, pending tests, and total people tested for each state or district currently reporting that data. |
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According to this site, there currently are 2,101 hospitalizations in the U.S., the vast majority, 1,603, in New York. The AHA says there are 6,146 hospitals in the U.S. |
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Randy
Joined: 08 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 03/22/20 10:27 am ::: |
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| It seems pretty clear that the hospitalization data is incomplete. I first noticed that Georgia already has 14 death, but no hospitalization is reported. The data shown as NA. In fact, most states don't report it and are shown as NA. If you download the table there is blank in that column for most states. Only 15 states are reporting the data.
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justintyme
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| Posted: 03/22/20 10:39 am ::: |
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One thing to keep in mind as we look at current numbers, as Dr. Fauci has pointed out on numerous occasions, is that we are always looking at the past rather than what our current situation is actually like.
In the case of hospitlization, for instance, there is about a 15-20 day delay between when the initial infection occurs and when the cases become critical. So as the virus spread speeds up, think about where those people will be 2 to 3 weeks from now.
Also as far as hospitalizations go, we have to remember that most hospitals already operate at near capacity by design (we call it "efficiency"). And that is with 0 COVID-19 cases. It will not take much to suddenly overwhelm our hospitals.
The CEO of the hospital association was on Face the Nation today and spoke of how many hospitals have very limited resources and unless something is done, many of our smaller hospitals will end up closing their doors because those resources run out.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 03/22/20 10:57 am ::: |
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Could This Explain Why the Coronavirus Death Rate in Italy Is So High?
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An adviser to Italy's minister of health, Professor Walter Ricciardi, said the coronavirus death rate in Italy may be higher than in other countries not only because of demographics -- Italy has the second oldest population in the world -- but also because of the way Italy records deaths of those who have tested positive for the coronavirus.
"The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus," Prof. Riccardi told The Telegraph.
"On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 percent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 percent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three," the professor explains. |
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justintyme
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| Posted: 03/22/20 11:08 am ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
Could This Explain Why the Coronavirus Death Rate in Italy Is So High?
| Quote: |
An adviser to Italy's minister of health, Professor Walter Ricciardi, said the coronavirus death rate in Italy may be higher than in other countries not only because of demographics -- Italy has the second oldest population in the world -- but also because of the way Italy records deaths of those who have tested positive for the coronavirus.
"The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus," Prof. Riccardi told The Telegraph.
"On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 percent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 percent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three," the professor explains. |
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So in other words Italy is just being more accurate than everyone else.
Based upon the numbers we've seen so far the biggest risk COVID-19 represents is that it makes other health conditions much more dire. So while COVID-19 might not be the direct cause, people who would not have died from their heart disease or hypertension are suddenly dying from heart attacks or strokes because of the stress a severe COVID-19 case has on the body.
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Randy
Joined: 08 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 03/22/20 11:16 am ::: |
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There may a lot of confusing cause and effect here. Italy has to ration intensive care beds, ventilators, etc and they do so on the basis of life expectancy of patients. Those that are younger and don't have other conditions get the care the needed, the older, less healthy patients do not. It is not directly COV19 which is causing the patient to die, it is rationing of health care.
BTW - rationing is also the reason why case number start explode in certain places. Once more tests are available, the number of cases goes up.
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FrozenLVFan
Joined: 08 Jul 2014
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| Posted: 03/22/20 12:05 pm ::: |
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| justintyme wrote: |
One thing to keep in mind as we look at current numbers, as Dr. Fauci has pointed out on numerous occasions, is that we are always looking at the past rather than what our current situation is actually like.
In the case of hospitlization, for instance, there is about a 15-20 day delay between when the initial infection occurs and when the cases become critical. So as the virus spread speeds up, think about where those people will be 2 to 3 weeks from now.
Also as far as hospitalizations go, we have to remember that most hospitals already operate at near capacity by design (we call it "efficiency"). And that is with 0 COVID-19 cases. It will not take much to suddenly overwhelm our hospitals.
The CEO of the hospital association was on Face the Nation today and spoke of how many hospitals have very limited resources and unless something is done, many of our smaller hospitals will end up closing their doors because those resources run out. |
I'm not sure that's true. There are an increasing number of reports of patients showing up at a hospital's ER with shortness of breath, then developing severe respiratory compromise and dying 24 hours later. There seems to be a subset of patients with rapidly progressive disease.
| Randy wrote: |
There may a lot of confusing cause and effect here. Italy has to ration intensive care beds, ventilators, etc and they do so on the basis of life expectancy of patients. Those that are younger and don't have other conditions get the care the needed, the older, less healthy patients do not. It is not directly COV19 which is causing the patient to die, it is rationing of health care.
BTW - rationing is also the reason why case number start explode in certain places. Once more tests are available, the number of cases goes up. |
Rationing of health care will also increase the number of deaths in non-COVID patients with heart attacks, trauma, etc when no ICU beds are available. IMHO, those deaths should, but won't be, included in the death rate due to coronavirus.
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GlennMacGrady
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GlennMacGrady
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| Posted: 03/22/20 3:56 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
I've wanted to compare the crude flu death rate to the crude coronavirus death rate in the U.S., the way I've consistently been doing it: deaths/confirmed cases. But someone beat me to it. The results show the flu to have five times the death rate of coronavirus, 10% to 2%.
So, how does the CDC come up with the widely touted death rate of 0.1% for the flu? They estimate the number of actual cases to be 36,000,000, which is 162 times the actual confirmed cases of 222,552. Then, they divide that estimated number into the death number of 22,000.
Let's play CDC estimator for coronavirus. Using the data in the table, if we estimate the actual coronavirus cases to be a very modest 20 times the 3,806 confirmed cases, that would be 76,120 estimated cases. Using that as the denominator, the estimated coronavirus death rate would be 69/76,120 = 0.09%. |
According to this person's updated calculations as of yesterday, the U.S. crude death rate for CV-19 (1.3%) is 7.7 times less than this season's flu (10%).
As discussed earlier in this thread, the fly in all these statistical ointments is that the actual infection rate of the general population is not known for CV-19 or the flu, and never will be known via randomized testing. After-the-fact estimates is the most we'll ever get, as the CDC has done for the flu for decades. |
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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012
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| Posted: 03/22/20 6:26 pm ::: |
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| FrozenLVFan wrote: |
I'm not sure that's true. There are an increasing number of reports of patients showing up at a hospital's ER with shortness of breath, then developing severe respiratory compromise and dying 24 hours later. There seems to be a subset of patients with rapidly progressive disease.
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Shortness of breath (especially shortness of breath that is severe enough to seek help at a hospital) is considered a critical symptom. It usually doesn't come about until the virus has progressed and usually 5-10 days after the first symptom appears (typically a sore or scratchy throat).
And that first symptom can appear somewhere from 5-10 days from exposure.
COVID-19 is not a sudden onset virus like influenza. It this is it actually more similar to a rhinovirus where you start feeling off, then some minor symptoms appear, and then comes more symptoms and/or a worsening of the patient's initial symptoms. It is also common for people to actually have a lessening of symptoms and then have them suddenly come back with a vengeance.
So, yes, once people are having severe enough symptoms that they are heading to the hospital it can be a very quick progression into respiratory failure and death. But that tends to usually be 15-20 days from exposure.
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Randy
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| Posted: 03/22/20 6:31 pm ::: |
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| The similarity to the common cold is troubling because the earlier versions of the corona virus cause colds along with other viruses. As we all know - there is no cure or vaccine for the common cold.
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justintyme
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| Posted: 03/22/20 6:43 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
As discussed earlier in this thread, the fly in all these statistical ointments is that the actual infection rate of the general population is not known for CV-19 or the flu, and never will be known via randomized testing. |
This is absolutely true. Which is why back-of-the-envelope calculations are not going to tell us anything.
If you listen to Dr. Fauci and the other experts they are always talking about their "models". And that is what's key here. They have very sophisticated models into which they plug this raw data and these models adjust for things like non-representative samples and for mild or asymptomatic cases that won't be tested. It is from these models that they get the numbers they report. And they are always adjusting these models to make sure they give the most up-to-date and accurate estimates as possible.
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jammerbirdi
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| Posted: 03/22/20 8:11 pm ::: |
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| Randy wrote: |
| The similarity to the common cold is troubling because the earlier versions of the corona virus cause colds along with other viruses. As we all know - there is no cure or vaccine for the common cold. |
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GlennMacGrady
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| Posted: 03/22/20 10:53 pm ::: |
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Update 11: Changes in 24 Hours since Last Update
U.S.:
- confirmed cases increased by 6702 (25%) from 26,574 to 33,276
- deaths increased by 81 from 336 to 417
- death rate decreased from 1.26% to 1.25%
U.S. deaths each day since March 11 and U.S. cumulative death rate on that day:
?? – 3/11 2.89%
02 – 3/12 2.41%
07 – 3/13 2.16%
10 – 3/14 1.93%
12 – 3/15 1.83%
16 – 3/16 1.82%
23 – 3/17 1.70%
42 – 3/18 1.60%
55 – 3/19 1.44%
55 – 3/20 1.32%
76 – 3/21 1.26%
81 – 3/22 1.25%
The U.S. increase in confirmed cases today was the most of any country, which indicates to me that the U.S. is now testing more than anyone else. The U.S. is likely to surpass S. Korea in total tests this coming week.
New York accounts for 47% of the confirmed cases in the U.S. This must be, in part, because the state is testing like blazes compared to the other states. The N.Y. death rate is lower than the overall U.S. rate at:
117/15,793 = 0.74%, which is approaching the CDC's guesstimated death rate for flu of 0.10%. |
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tfan
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