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toad455



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PostPosted: 07/25/19 8:36 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It doesn't matter what came out from this, his base will still support him. Putin could say he rigged the election so Trump would win with proof on national TV and his base would still back him. It doesn't matter what happens to him or what he says, his base will always stick by him and put him on a pedestal.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 07/25/19 8:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

sambista wrote:
now tripe's trying to convince the public that they saw and heard something totally different.

he's saying "our president - that's me . . ."

and he's calling the reporters at the white house fake news, still.

delusional. dangerous.


There's so much to unpack here. When you have an adversarial foreign government interfering in your presidential election to this degree it is a huge and very complex thing. And dangerous. But Trump? Seriously? OMG. EVERYONE is complicit with taking the focus off of the huge complicated thing that was the Russian interference and putting it on fucking Trump. Trump. Trump. Trump.

The Mueller Report, meaning how it was taken and used politically in the aftermath of its release, has been ALL ABOUT getting Trump.

You did not get Trump and you likely never will. And at least in some part due to the emphasis of the Russian interference being placed ON Trump instead of on the Russians and what can we ALL do to combat this ongoing threat, you have only made Trump stronger. He is SUCH a good bet to win re-election right now. And the Russians are well-positioned to do it all over again.

There were no winners yesterday except maybe Nancy Pelosi. Other than her, the closest thing TO a winner you have is ... yep... you guessed it... Trump. The needle did not register yesterday. Trump survives. What doesn't... you know.

Politics has never been played as bad is it is being played right now. Never. And I'm thinking it can't be unintentional. CNN, MSNBC. FOX. This is nothing but a great big show. Every good story needs a villain and Trump allows everyone to cast themselves as the heroes. Everyone in this great show or covering it has a great life. There are no responsible people left it seems with any power at so many of the mainstream media organizations. We are living in a post-truth world and anyone who thinks it begins and ends with Donald Trump is just not seeing the forest for the trees. Fake news? It's bigger than that. Fake news world where everything that matters is out of focus. Every day.



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/26/19 8:18 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Trump is a criminal to the extent unseen in US politics in my lifetime, likely ever.

Barr is as anti-democratic, as is McConnell.

This unholy trinity is overseeing the end of US democracy and ushering in an era of US fascism.

It's less about "getting" these fuckers as it is about preserving the system of checks and balances as written in our glorious constitution, and protecting the sanctity of our damn elections, ffs.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 07/26/19 10:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
Trump is a criminal to the extent unseen in US politics in my lifetime, likely ever.

Barr is as anti-democratic, as is McConnell.

This unholy trinity is overseeing the end of US democracy and ushering in an era of US fascism.

It's less about "getting" these fuckers as it is about preserving the system of checks and balances as written in our glorious constitution, and protecting the sanctity of our damn elections, ffs.


This is perfect. "and protecting the sanctity of our damn elections" added almost as an afterthought and NO mention of Russia.

Republicans are bad. Got that. So let's hand them paths to victory in elections like candy on Halloween.

And fascism? People as smart as you guys can't possibly be missing that reasonable people are pointing out the proclivity toward fascism is at least as prominent and visibly evident on the far left>left>Democratic Party as it is with the Republicans and Trump.

The right then takes this behavior and packages it for oh about half the voters in this country and makes sure they don't miss any of it along with everyone calling them stupid and racist and suckers and on and on.

I'm not a believer but I've come to like the old wisdom that the path to the kingdom of heaven, whatever that might be for any person or group, is narrow and difficult. As I've said many times, there shouldn't even BE a Republican Party at this point in the big time American politics. The worst impulses of the left MADE them. And now we're never going to get rid of them. Or nationalists like Trump.

Favorite twitter exchange I saw yesterday. I'll leave the names out of it.

Donald Trump is a rapist, a white supremacist, a fascist who cages children. He hates Muslims, Jewish people, trans people, non-white people, poor people, disabled people, women. He’s a pathological liar. By not impeaching, the Democratic Party co-signs all of the above.

And to that someone responded:

---wow your insane

lol. I'm sorry but that was perfect. This first tweet is one of the most perfect expressions of the most disastrous and dangerous thinking that EVERYONE who is not actively trying to bring down Trump is a 'co-signer' to 'all of the above.'

Here's a quote by a Republican congressman, Josh Hawley. And it is, as I've said here for years, an under discussed element of the political debate right now but a BIG driver of American voting sentiments.

Here’s truth liberal elites can’t stand hearing: THEY are the ruling class, THEY are the rich, THEY are the powerful. They’ve failed this country. Working Americans are tired of being despised & dismissed.

This is also the truth. All my life I've been a Democrat and for most of that time I was out on what was once the socialist progressive far-left. But a big element of my personal politics has always been about recoiling from what I saw as these great mistakes by my own side. Humiliating people out in America for their ignorance from an apartment or dorm room in New York City would have been the first visual that came into my head. Then I moved to California.

Politicians used to be known for shaking as many hands as they could or kissing babies because they operated in the reality that every vote counts.

Today you have people living in mansions in Bel-Air berating regular Americans every day on twitter. Literally. I have many examples bookmarked of the Downward Punching Dogs of Hollywood doing their thing. Here's one.

This is a TV actor whose name escapes me. But his face is very familiar to all of us. A hairdresser in North Carolina tweeted, I don't understand why you're all being so mean to our president?

This guy tweeted back, "Because you're a fucking moron."

Laughing

So I googled the guy, because I don't know everyone and everything about everyone. It popped up that he was selling his house, which he'd purchased for $15M ... for $25M. Shocked

That's maybe the worst I can recall at this moment. But there is so much going out every day from people living in mansions that is just nasty. Every vote counting? Puh-leeze. Whose work are these people doing? What good are they serving? In the political reality where every vote counts, these celebs are napalming voters.

And still you people don't get it. If I asked you why Trump might win re-election I'd bet no one here could articulate anything other than variations on something about the country being racist.

I'll save it for some other thread.

One last thought. I'm appalled at the criticism leveled at Mueller from all sides. That was a grandstanding shit show by both sides. I couldn't believe my eyes and ears how many times Mueller was cut off or rushed or not permitted to finish his answers. This in the context of his only giving one word or nearly one word answers. But every time he appeared to want to provide a more complete answer he was talked over by one of these preening asses. It was revolting.

And people are worried about 'preserving our democracy?' Our government and political system has been in a state of collapse for decades. And before that it was completely and indefensibly undemocratic. It has always just barely worked and most of that time only for the few. Always with a hand that moves the needle toward the side of the rich and the powerful. An undemocratic theater of the infuriatingly absurd.

Okay, so I will point out how Trump should win in 2020, because it flows from all of this.

People don't believe the bullshit about America that is sold to them. The sentiment that I've stated above here, parts of which all of you agree with yourselves, is so widely held by the public that they cannot be moved by calls of preserving our democracy. For years the Left led the charge that the American political system was undemocratic. Everyone gets that. So here is what it comes down to in 2020.

This election will come down to two things. The police and the border.

Many many Americans, more than are registering in polls, and many who would reasonably and predictably respond negatively to polls regarding Trump or his job performance, care more about the debate regarding law enforcement and as it applies to the protection of themselves, their families, and their property than they do any OTHER thing about Donald Trump or his shortcomings. Trump backs the cops. End of story there. He's a head cracking hardliner in support of law enforcement. The world is going nuts. We have political turmoil here that has been manifested in violence. People want crime contained now more than ever. Trump reflects that in his support for law enforcement and in his rhetoric.

On the other side is a Democratic Party and a bunch of candidates who are all trying to signal that they are more woke than the next person on that stage. You have to address police violence, the incarceration state. Any position you might have held suggesting law and order in your political past is now a great and potentially career ending liability. Even Kamala Harris is under fire for being a tough prosecutor during her days as a DA and AG in California.

This is what people see. One guy who is all in for the police. And the other side scaring the living daylights out of them. Those people don't give a fuck if Trump is unfit for office or a liar or a pussy grabber or any of the other things he is. Not when you have the other side going soft on crime and having to adapt all of these anti-law enforcement sentiments as basically party platform now.

Now the border. One thing has changed this debate permanently. Video. Visuals. Trump said there was a crisis on the border and he was mocked for it. Then the visuals came into people's living rooms. Masses of people entering the country illegally and that was also evidenced visually by the images of those being held. Then the Democrats and those who were heretofore mocking Trump for claiming there was a crisis on the border were now leading the fight against Trump with the story that there was a humanitarian crisis on the border. We know the outrage that has been stoked by the images. But I'm telling you, that's just one takeaway from those images. That's the takeaway of the resistance. The takeaway of the Democrats trying to oppose Trump and his border politics. Yes, it found many sympathetic Americans who saw those images and could not abide them. But again, that's just one kind of reaction to those images that happened on the political landscape.

Out there in America, a lot of people saw, and for the first time, people coming across the border. Illegal border crossings was made real. It no longer was a concept with no images in people's minds. A lot of people watching that came away just wanting it to stop. Who's going to stop this? Who's TRYING to stop it?

Trump. Hard line.

Okay, what's on the other side? What have the Democrats got to say about it all? Well, if you don't know that Trump's extremism on border politics combined with a hard shove from the far left base has pushed the Democrats very close to adapting a policy of open borders you're not reading the newspapers. These aren't my words. This is in the Washington Post and New York Times. I'm not giving Trump any credit for being smart. It's like we elected a guy from the end of the bar who sits under the TV mumbling about what's going on in the world. But if you did that, you'd see that that person does speak for a lot of people in this country. Not the elites. Not the erudite fine statesmen and women who have always been in charge of these things, uh, to a disastrous end, I should add.

So the border comes down to Trump's hard line or the perception of the Democrats complete abandonment of any line at all.

These are the issues that will decide the 2020 presidential election. Remember where you heard it.



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 07/26/19 1:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The idea that going all in on immigration is a winning strategy for Trump is not supported by any evidence at all. In fact, there is significant evidence that the more he doubles down on it, the more it hurts his chances. It is something that plays very well with his base, but it is something that swing voters just don't really care about. That is supported both by the polls--and since people when the polls don't say what people want them to day the first response is "well it's people not represented in the polls"--the empirical evidence of the 2018 elections. He went all in on immigration. It was the issue. And he got destroyed on it.

Trump's best best for 2020 is the economy. Full stop.

Any issue that distracts from that hurts him.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 07/26/19 4:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I don't think he has to go "all in on immigration' although he won't be able to stop himself. He doesn't have to even mention it or his support for the police. What I'm saying is that a significant portion of the American public are now looking at what has become a clear binary proposition when it comes to two things they care deeply about. And they care so much about these things as to NOT care what kind of an unfit clown Donald Trump is otherwise. They don't care even if they clearly see that and agree with that assessment. If he is the only one strongly supporting law enforcement and a hard line against illegal crossings at the border and not answering to the outraged woke social justice warriors on the left on these two issues, he is going to get those votes.

And we know he's going to be running against a candidate who will invariably be answering to this loud and powerful social media ruling monster on the left represented by people calling much of America racist and Nazis, etc.

I mean, lol, just look at some of the threads here right now. How long does it take before someone starts posting pictures of Nazis?



So my post isn't really about what Donald Trump should run on. I think, by the way, Trump has that one in the bag. He's running against AOC, Omar, and the Squad. No matter the candidate on the other side, he's running against this group and is going to characterize this election as being him against them. And that's going to be very fruitful for him I think. They are an absolute American political disaster.

No, my point is that there is a bunch of Americans who AGREE that Trump is just about every bad thing that can be said about him. But they'll vote for him because of their own concerns about what is happening with law enforcement right now, which I won't bother typing here, and their own feelings about these border crossings that are happening to the point that they have overwhelmed the border patrol and our ability to absorb and process them and it's not a myth but something that has created a lot of problems. I italicized that because a lot people will articulate it just that simply. It's causing a lot of problems.

Or, you could say that Trump's hard line has created the problems. And there is the choice. People storming the US border throwing themselves by the thousands plus children into the Rio Grande and a president who they see as merely taking a hard line in enforcing the law, or weeping celebrities and AOC visiting the border and the tragically unfair and un-American concentration camps that recall Nazi Germany. Your choice.

And the economy is doing well but I think that's for people for whom things go well when the economy goes well. Inequality and people working three jobs and all of that is still a thing in America and it's not likely to ever not be a thing. I don't think Trump has been good for Trump voters on the economy. I just don't think anything, anybody or any policy could give this part of America relief in the short term and I don't think that part of America really ever believed Trump would change their fortunes anyway and certainly not quickly.

But this swing part that's probably most concerned with being protected and the border etc. is probably doing okay with their retirement accounts etc. but anyone who is doing well in this economy doesn't need ANY ONE to tell them about it. We know.

As far as supporting evidence. I mean, come on. At this point, justintyme, have some respect for people throwing things out there based on their own reading of the political landscape. Like especially me. Hello. Because I've now called so much of this shit before it happens I should hang a neon sign outside my place offering Psychic consultations.

You know I can predict the future, right? No REALLY. I can. And have. Don't ask me to prove it unless you want it to be proved.



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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 07/26/19 5:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
What a president does is less important than what a president is. To be president is to be a symbol of all that is best about the United States. The president is the embodiment of our history, our culture, our morality, our pride of achievement, our ideal of a civilization. The president should, in the harsh light of public scrutiny, exhibit all of our virtues and none of our shortcomings.


I'd posit that our current president DOES embody the New Morality of "our country". Think about it: RichRichRICHHHH. That's what people want, morals be damned. Cheat about it, lie about it, but being rich--hell, even flying FIRST CLASS--makes it all right. Our country has faced a growing moral deficit for a looong time....not coincidentally out of sync with our budgetary deficit.

But. I diverge. Your essay DOES make for some interesting nostalgia. Razz



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 07/26/19 6:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:

As far as supporting evidence. I mean, come on. At this point, justintyme, have some respect for people throwing things out there based on their own reading of the political landscape. Like especially me. Hello. Because I've now called so much of this shit before it happens I should hang a neon sign outside my place offering Psychic consultations.

You know I can predict the future, right? No REALLY. I can. And have. Don't ask me to prove it unless you want it to be proved.

I subscribe to the Nate Silver brand of thinking when it comes to political punditry.

"Reading of the political landcape" almost always comes down to people pointing to things that either speak to their own hopes or fears. And it seldom is in step with what the actual empirical evidence says on the subject. Take immigration. It's really important to the Republican base--the people who were going to vote for him anyways. But outside of that there is little fact based evidence that the voters who will swing these sort of elections care one way or another about it. And there is a lot of evidence that if he goes too hard at it it can turn off these voters. So it is at best a wash, at worse a net negative for him.

The other factor that the "Squad" stuff ignores is that there are two paths that Democrats have to win a presidency, compared to the single path that the GOP has (well, excluding voter suppression techniques). The Denocrats can either try to win over what is known as the "Obama-Trump" voter, the moderate swing voter and try to pull some of them back into their camp, or else they can go all in on trying to energize their base. Ideally they walk a line and do both, but with enough turnout the Democratic base can win the election without the need for "swing" votes. This is not true for the GOP (which is why, as I noted, GOP works hard on suppression techniques).

Because of this, I really have no idea at all how effective Trump's strategy with regards to race will be. We know playing up racial divides was very effective in the 2016 GOP primaries, and there is some evidence that it was mildly effective in 2016 in certain places, but there is evidence that it backfired on him in 2018. The evidence is really not conclusive any one way or another. Which is to say, anyone saying "this will happen" is speaking out of hope or fear based upon their own personal experiences rather than ones shared generally across the entire country.



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/26/19 8:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
Trump is a criminal to the extent unseen in US politics in my lifetime, likely ever.

Barr is as anti-democratic, as is McConnell.

This unholy trinity is overseeing the end of US democracy and ushering in an era of US fascism.

It's less about "getting" these fuckers as it is about preserving the system of checks and balances as written in our glorious constitution, and protecting the sanctity of our damn elections, ffs.


This is perfect. "and protecting the sanctity of our damn elections" added almost as an afterthought and NO mention of Russia.



I really don't know what you mean here.



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mercfan3



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PostPosted: 07/26/19 11:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Jammer - you got it wrong, like really wrong.

Trump voters aren't voting for Trump in spite of how horrible he is..they LIKE how horrible he is.

They like that they have been able to come out of the closet with their horrid internal thoughts.

There has been a significant increase in racist rhetoric. In hate crimes. We had a god damn Nazi rally, and the President of the United States said some fo them are good people.

Nazis aren't ever good people.

Cut the bullshit with immigration. It’s racism. No one cares about the Canadians coming into the country, and there is no reason for people in..say..Kentucky or Indiana, no where near the god damn border..to be concerned about immigrants.

Oh, and it’s been at an all time low since the end of the Obama administration.


Call it what it is.

Second, there isn’t a class divide over Trump. There is a white divide. Period. Again, we see clear as day racism.


Liberal elites are running the country. LMAO. Sure. Keep watching Fox. Hollywood and celebrities aren't running the country Jammer.

Trump's win was heartbreaking to me (even with the cheating..the fact that it was close was abysmal) because I got it.

Racism exists at different levels. Our country is still systemically racist, and there is no doubt that implicit bias exists and the idea of colorblindness is pervasive. But I hadn't realized the extent that individual - hateful - racism exists. Not until Donald won.

That being said, I think something else happened. A political strategist described the difference between two campaigns he was a part of, his candidates ran against David Duke.

The first time was a race for the Governor. Conventional wisdom was to not bring up his racist beliefs. To talk about his other negatives - he hadn't payed taxes, for instance.

The result. Duke won.

Then Duke ran for the senate. Instead of running on Duke's other negatives, they ran against his racism.

Duke actually got more votes that time, but he lost. Why? More people voted. When they suppressed his racism, and talked about his other faults..it was normalized. He was "just another candidate." When it was opened up, people were hellbent to go and vote.

And we need to do the same thing in 2020.

In 2016 MSM equated the two candidates. As if Clinton's small negatives (being careless with three emails) was equated to Trump's racism against immigrants, sexual assault, as if they were the same type of bad.

Clinton didn't mess up by calling his voters deplorable - she messed up by apologizing and only doing it once.

Democrats need to stop going after people who are lost in the Republican/foxnews mindset. It's not happening. They need to get more people to the polls because more people are Democrats.

if they want to make a play for some conservatives - they should talk about their support for the veterans, as opposed to the way the GOP treats vets. The Americana aspect of support for our troops has tribalistic (and thus, problematic) aspects, but it's an easy play...and Democrats should no longer let the GOP own "American culture." They aren't supportive of the vets.

The Dem nominee needs to run on the idea that Trump is a racist traitor, and that they are the true American. (And American culture includes diversity now.)



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 07/27/19 2:36 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:

I subscribe to the Nate Silver brand of thinking when it comes to political punditry.

"Reading of the political landcape" almost always comes down to people pointing to things that either speak to their own hopes or fears.


I'm glad we got that 'almost' thrown in there. lol. Because we are all different and possess (or not) different levels of intelligence and foresight and perceptiveness, etc. Obviously there is a great range of talents that individual humans might uniquely possess.

So I'm clearly and obviously exempt from the concerns that you regurgitated from Nate Silver. Not saying I'm going to be proven right this time. I'm just reading the political landscape as I have in the past. And I'm just saying my conclusions are based on my talents and not on my own personal hopes and fears, as you, or Nate, put it.

Wink



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 07/27/19 4:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

mercfan I don't watch FoxNews. I got the Hawley quote from twitter. I think I've been very explicit about how I've come to my political perspectives and how I began having criticisms of my own political party and side beginning as a very young person. 12 maybe.

I know Trump has a base and some very large portion of it is flat-out racist. He won't win without a lot more voters than that base and I'm describing what I think will be the deciding factors for a lot of other voters who might swing this election for Trump.

Democrats should have a great advantage in terms of their ground game and passion to defeat Trump. We'll see. I think there will be enough mistakes made by the party as it acquiesces to its more progressive base and in the process continues to alienate moderate voters in swing states. And that's how Trump will win.



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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
Shades



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PostPosted: 07/27/19 8:53 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eB-pEXllxSk" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>



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Howee



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PostPosted: 07/27/19 9:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

mercfan3 wrote:
Democrats need to stop going after people who are lost in the Republican/foxnews mindset. It's not happening. They need to get more people to the polls because more people are Democrats.


I heard an interesting soundbite the other day (Mark Shields, maybe?) that a big part of why 2016 went as it did is that black voters came out in historically low numbers. Maybe y'all knew that, but I didn't. I can't IMAGINE that happening next year, barring something like blatant voter suppression in key areas.



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mercfan3



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PostPosted: 07/27/19 9:07 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
mercfan3 wrote:
Democrats need to stop going after people who are lost in the Republican/foxnews mindset. It's not happening. They need to get more people to the polls because more people are Democrats.


I heard an interesting soundbite the other day (Mark Shields, maybe?) that a big part of why 2016 went as it did is that black voters came out in historically low numbers. Maybe y'all knew that, but I didn't. I can't IMAGINE that happening next year, barring something like blatant voter suppression in key areas.


That is almost right.

The annihilation of the voting rights acts allowed states to suppress votes. (Less polls to go to, etc..) it’ll be depressed again of something doesn’t change there.

Then of course we end up with progressive talking points that black voters are to blame for Trump..even though around 90% voted for Clinton, where as only 30% of white people did.



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PostPosted: 07/28/19 1:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

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