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Richyyy



Joined: 17 Nov 2005
Posts: 24326
Location: London


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PostPosted: 08/15/10 9:13 pm    ::: Three-Way Fun? Reply Reply with quote

Okay, now that that title got you interested, time to talk about the three-way tie again Wink.

Right now, if Minnesota, San Antonio and LA all finished tied, SASS are 5-4 in the head-to-head-to-head, LA are 4-3, and Minny are 3-5. With one game left between LA and Minnesota. Now to me, that seems pretty straightforward. Regardless of the result in Friday's Min-LA game, SASS and LA should go into the playoffs and Minnesota would go out, because there's no way they can catch either of the others.

However, I vaguely remember p_d saying something about the three-way tie-break deciding the top team, then starting over with the two-way tie-break to decide who comes next. So say LA beat Minnesota on Friday, but the rest of the results through the week bring about a three-way tie. That leaves the head-to-head-to-head looking like this:

LA 5-3
SASS 5-4
Min 3-6

Again, to me that looks like the Lynx should be done. But if the three-way decides LA finish third in the conference, and then they re-start with the two-way tie-break between the remaining teams, Minnesota have the edge on San Antonio 3-2 on their head-to-head.

So help me out here, someone who knows what's going on. Would Minnesota really hop over San Antonio despite being a clear third in the theoretical three-way tie?


Nerd2



Joined: 06 Jun 2010
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PostPosted: 08/15/10 9:19 pm    ::: Re: Three-Way Fun? Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
Okay, now that that title got you interested, time to talk about the three-way tie again Wink.

Right now, if Minnesota, San Antonio and LA all finished tied, SASS are 5-4 in the head-to-head-to-head, LA are 4-3, and Minny are 3-5. With one game left between LA and Minnesota. Now to me, that seems pretty straightforward. Regardless of the result in Friday's Min-LA game, SASS and LA should go into the playoffs and Minnesota would go out, because there's no way they can catch either of the others.

However, I vaguely remember p_d saying something about the three-way tie-break deciding the top team, then starting over with the two-way tie-break to decide who comes next. So say LA beat Minnesota on Friday, but the rest of the results through the week bring about a three-way tie. That leaves the head-to-head-to-head looking like this:

LA 5-3
SASS 5-4
Min 3-6

Again, to me that looks like the Lynx should be done. But if the three-way decides LA finish third in the conference, and then they re-start with the two-way tie-break between the remaining teams, Minnesota have the edge on San Antonio 3-2 on their head-to-head.

So help me out here, someone who knows what's going on. Would Minnesota really hop over San Antonio despite being a clear third in the theoretical three-way tie?


I was confused by that too. Currently, the 3 way standings are : LA (4-3), SAN (5-4), MIN (3-5) so if it was used to knock a team out and reapply, it would either be LA, MIN, SAN (top out, then h2h tiebreak) or SAN, LA, MIN (bottom out first, then h2h). But the .com standings seem like they are going purely by the h2h % between the 3 (LA, SAN, MIN).


p_d_swanson



Joined: 01 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: 08/15/10 9:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
So help me out here, someone who knows what's going on. Would Minnesota really hop over San Antonio despite being a clear third in the theoretical three-way tie?

I believe this is correct in your scenario, as the tie for 3rd place would be broken first and then the two remaining teams would be compared for 4th...
Quote:
K. PLAYOFFS/TIEBREAK FORMULA

2. Tiebreak Procedure.

c. More Than Two Teams Tied. As many teams as possible will be eliminated at each step. As soon as one or more teams are eliminated at any step, the process must begin again from step (1).

(1) Better winning percentage among all head-to-head games involving tied teams.

(2) Better winning percentage against teams within conference.

(3) Better winning percentage against all teams with a .500 or better record at the end of the season.

(4) Better point differential in games involving tied teams.

(5) Coin toss.


gpark33



Joined: 17 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: 08/15/10 9:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Is it safe to say everyone holds their own fate? At most, two of the three teams could win out (due to a head to head with Minny and LA). If two of them do win out, they make it, right?



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mozzie



Joined: 12 Jul 2010
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PostPosted: 08/15/10 9:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

p_d_swanson wrote:

Quote:
K. PLAYOFFS/TIEBREAK FORMULA

2. Tiebreak Procedure.

c. More Than Two Teams Tied. As many teams as possible will be eliminated at each step. As soon as one or more teams are eliminated at any step, the process must begin again from step (1).

(1) Better winning percentage among all head-to-head games involving tied teams.

(2) Better winning percentage against teams within conference.

(3) Better winning percentage against all teams with a .500 or better record at the end of the season.

(4) Better point differential in games involving tied teams.

(5) Coin toss.


So through today's games that means LA is #3 and Minnesota is #4.


Nerd2



Joined: 06 Jun 2010
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PostPosted: 08/15/10 9:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

p_d_swanson wrote:
Richyyy wrote:
So help me out here, someone who knows what's going on. Would Minnesota really hop over San Antonio despite being a clear third in the theoretical three-way tie?

I believe this is correct in your scenario, as the tie for 3rd place would be broken first and then the two remaining teams would be compared for 4th...
Quote:
K. PLAYOFFS/TIEBREAK FORMULA

2. Tiebreak Procedure.

c. More Than Two Teams Tied. As many teams as possible will be eliminated at each step. As soon as one or more teams are eliminated at any step, the process must begin again from step (1).

(1) Better winning percentage among all head-to-head games involving tied teams.

(2) Better winning percentage against teams within conference.

(3) Better winning percentage against all teams with a .500 or better record at the end of the season.

(4) Better point differential in games involving tied teams.

(5) Coin toss.


Actually, that says to me "as many teams as possible are eliminated at any step." Since currently the scores are LA (4-3), SAN (5-4), MIN (3-5), the .com standings are set up as LA, then SAN, then MIN. It suggests that since there is a clear ranking between the 3 (meaning no two are still tied after laying this out) then you can use this as the basis for all three. That means that if LA loses against MIN, it would be SAN (5-4), LA (4-4) and MIN (4-5) and this is how it would end in the rankings. Conversely, if LA wins it would be LA (5-3), SAN (5-4) and MIN (3-6). Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct.


Richyyy



Joined: 17 Nov 2005
Posts: 24326
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PostPosted: 08/15/10 9:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

mozzie wrote:
So through today's games that means LA is #3 and Minnesota is #4.

'If the season ended today...', as the saying goes, yes, if you accept p_d's interpretation. LA win the three-way, then Minny win the two-way over SASS. Of course, the bizarre thing is that remaining game. If Minnesota win, LA drop to 4-4 in the three-way, which means SASS now finish top of the three-way tie, and LA would then win the remaining two-way tie over Minnesota.

I don't think there's any scenario in which Minnesota would actually be better off overall just throwing the game against LA, but it's bizarre that winning a game would actually hurt them in a potential ultimate tie-break.

gpark33 wrote:
Is it safe to say everyone holds their own fate? At most, two of the three teams could win out (due to a head to head with Minny and LA). If two of them do win out, they make it, right?

Yes. Win all three games you have left, you're in. That applies to all three teams.

Nerd2 wrote:
Actually, that says to me "as many teams as possible are eliminated at any step."

I'll throw my hat into the ring and say you could read it either way Wink.


Nerd2



Joined: 06 Jun 2010
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PostPosted: 08/15/10 9:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

gpark33 wrote:
Is it safe to say everyone holds their own fate? At most, two of the three teams could win out (due to a head to head with Minny and LA). If two of them do win out, they make it, right?
That's what it seems to me. If Minny wins out then they will have 19 losses to LA's 20 losses and SAN will also have 19 losses. If LA wins out they will have 19 losses and MIN 20 losses with SAN at 19 losses. Bottom line is Minny needs one more win than whatever LA gets and the same # as whatever SAN gets. If they do that, they are in. Any less than that and they are out.


Nerd2



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PostPosted: 08/15/10 10:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:

I don't think there's any scenario in which Minnesota would actually be better off overall just throwing the game against LA, but it's bizarre that winning a game would actually hurt them in a potential ultimate tie-break.

Nerd2 wrote:
Actually, that says to me "as many teams as possible are eliminated at any step."

I'll throw my hat into the ring and say you could read it either way Wink.


Yeah, that's why I'm going by the standings in the .com list. Because of course they should know. And they never make mistakes Smile

There are a couple of ways that losing to LA could still let MIN get into the playoffs but it would involve getting help from other teams. That would then be a calculated risk that the other games would fall just right. More importantly, you wouldn't be able to predict on that Thursday that a win or loss would be more likely to get you in. It's a strange end to the season but any of those three missing the playoffs had plenty of chances that they let get away. I mean all three would enter the playoffs as a sub-.500 team and the 2nd seed would be at the most .500.


Richyyy



Joined: 17 Nov 2005
Posts: 24326
Location: London


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PostPosted: 08/15/10 10:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'll happily ignore the .com's standings. This is the same page that didn't signify Seattle as anything way beyond the stage at which you could calculate they'd won the conference on one hand.

Nerd2 wrote:
There are a couple of ways that losing to LA could still let MIN get into the playoffs but it would involve getting help from other teams.

Yes, but my point was that I don't think there's any real way that losing to LA would be better than just beating LA. Because it only helps if you fall into a 3-way tie (if we were going with p_d's interpretation). Beat LA, and you just avoid the three-way anyway by finishing above them on record.


p_d_swanson



Joined: 01 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: 08/16/10 9:19 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nerd2 wrote:
Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct.

Am told this morning that your version is the accurate one...


Nerd2



Joined: 06 Jun 2010
Posts: 7659



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PostPosted: 08/16/10 12:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

p_d_swanson wrote:
Nerd2 wrote:
Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct.

Am told this morning that your version is the accurate one...


Whoo hoo! Praise from PD! Smile

Minnesota really needs to beat LA. I think both Minnesota and LA will lose its other two so that Thursday game is the key one.


patsweetpat



Joined: 14 Jul 2010
Posts: 2305
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PostPosted: 08/16/10 8:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nerd2 wrote:
p_d_swanson wrote:
Nerd2 wrote:
Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct.

Am told this morning that your version is the accurate one...


Whoo hoo! Praise from PD! Smile

Minnesota really needs to beat LA. I think both Minnesota and LA will lose its other two so that Thursday game is the key one.


This is all interesting speculation, but I feel pretty confident about the Sparks' playoff chances on account of I just got an email from my season-ticket account rep today asking me if I wanted to reserve playoff tickets now.

So, y'know, it looks like the Sparks got this one in the bag.

Best wishes to the rest of you in fighting over the scraps.

Patrick Meighan
Culver City, CA


Nerd2



Joined: 06 Jun 2010
Posts: 7659



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PostPosted: 08/16/10 8:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

patsweetpat wrote:
Nerd2 wrote:
p_d_swanson wrote:
Nerd2 wrote:
Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct.

Am told this morning that your version is the accurate one...


Whoo hoo! Praise from PD! Smile

Minnesota really needs to beat LA. I think both Minnesota and LA will lose its other two so that Thursday game is the key one.


This is all interesting speculation, but I feel pretty confident about the Sparks' playoff chances on account of I just got an email from my season-ticket account rep today asking me if I wanted to reserve playoff tickets now.

So, y'know, it looks like the Sparks got this one in the bag.

Best wishes to the rest of you in fighting over the scraps.

Patrick Meighan
Culver City, CA


Wow, I got one from my Storm rep, too! Very Happy

That last game of the regular season could be something. And to think I was feeling sorry for ESPN2 thinking they'd be televising a clunker.


patsweetpat



Joined: 14 Jul 2010
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Location: Culver City, CA


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PostPosted: 08/16/10 8:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nerd2 wrote:
patsweetpat wrote:
Nerd2 wrote:
p_d_swanson wrote:
Nerd2 wrote:
Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct.

Am told this morning that your version is the accurate one...


Whoo hoo! Praise from PD! Smile

Minnesota really needs to beat LA. I think both Minnesota and LA will lose its other two so that Thursday game is the key one.


This is all interesting speculation, but I feel pretty confident about the Sparks' playoff chances on account of I just got an email from my season-ticket account rep today asking me if I wanted to reserve playoff tickets now.

So, y'know, it looks like the Sparks got this one in the bag.

Best wishes to the rest of you in fighting over the scraps.

Patrick Meighan
Culver City, CA


Wow, I got one from my Storm rep, too! Very Happy

That last game of the regular season could be something. And to think I was feeling sorry for ESPN2 thinking they'd be televising a clunker.


I know, and my wife tells me we have to go to my neighbor's birthday party at that same time.

The only reason I didn't put up a big fight is because of how confident I feel that the Sparks will have playoff games to follow.

Patrick Meighan
Culver City, CA


Nerd2



Joined: 06 Jun 2010
Posts: 7659



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PostPosted: 08/16/10 9:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

patsweetpat wrote:
Nerd2 wrote:
patsweetpat wrote:
Nerd2 wrote:
p_d_swanson wrote:
Nerd2 wrote:
Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct.

Am told this morning that your version is the accurate one...


Whoo hoo! Praise from PD! Smile

Minnesota really needs to beat LA. I think both Minnesota and LA will lose its other two so that Thursday game is the key one.


This is all interesting speculation, but I feel pretty confident about the Sparks' playoff chances on account of I just got an email from my season-ticket account rep today asking me if I wanted to reserve playoff tickets now.

So, y'know, it looks like the Sparks got this one in the bag.

Best wishes to the rest of you in fighting over the scraps.

Patrick Meighan
Culver City, CA


Wow, I got one from my Storm rep, too! Very Happy

That last game of the regular season could be something. And to think I was feeling sorry for ESPN2 thinking they'd be televising a clunker.


I know, and my wife tells me we have to go to my neighbor's birthday party at that same time.

The only reason I didn't put up a big fight is because of how confident I feel that the Sparks will have playoff games to follow.

Patrick Meighan
Culver City, CA


It's called "DVR and don't check scores." But it may all be decided by then if LA beats Minny on Thursday and Minny loses on Tuesday.


p_d_swanson



Joined: 01 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: 08/17/10 4:27 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nerd2 wrote:
Minnesota really needs to beat LA. I think both Minnesota and LA will lose its other two so that Thursday game is the key one.

On the other hand, should San Antonio go winless this week, the Lynx will qualify regardless of their own results...


Force10rulz



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PostPosted: 08/17/10 4:33 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Sparks and Lynx are going to lose at least one each after a visit to the Key Twisted Evil



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p_d_swanson



Joined: 01 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: 08/17/10 4:48 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

August Standings:
Code:
East          W  L    Pct   GB
-----------   -  -  -----  ---
New York      6  0  1.000    -
Indiana       5  2   .714  1.5
Washington    5  2   .714  1.5
Atlanta       2  4   .333    4
Connecticut   2  5   .286  4.5
Chicago       1  4   .200  4.5

West          W  L    Pct   GB
-----------   -  -  -----  ---
Los Angeles   4  2   .667    -
Minnesota     5  3   .625    -
Phoenix       3  4   .429  1.5
Seattle       3  4   .429  1.5
San Antonio   2  4   .333    2
Tulsa         1  5   .167    3


RI_Sun_Fan



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PostPosted: 08/21/10 12:22 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Bump


pilight



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PostPosted: 08/21/10 12:33 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

p_d_swanson wrote:
I believe this is correct in your scenario, as the tie for 3rd place would be broken first and then the two remaining teams would be compared for 4th...


If this is true, then the LA game tomorrow has no bearing on whether or not Minnesota makes the playoffs. The Sparks would win a three way tie, leaving Minnesota two win a two way over the SASS.

Nerd2 wrote:
Conversely, if LA wins it would be LA (5-3), SAN (5-4) and MIN (3-6). Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct.


That's a completely nonsensical way to tiebreak. Why on earth would a tie for fourth between San Antonio and Minnesota be broken based on how well they did against LA?

The three way tiebreak is for third place. Once that's broken in LA's favor, their results shouldn't affect the remaining two way tie for 4th.



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RI_Sun_Fan



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PostPosted: 08/21/10 12:41 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

In a three-way tie, the order would be determined by a head-to-head total of the involved teams. MN’s record vs. SA and LA; LA’s record vs. MN and SA; SA’s record vs. LA and MN, the Lynx would miss the playoffs by virtue of LA’s 5-3 record vs. SA/MN and SA’s 5-4 record vs. LA/MN. The Lynx are a combined 3-6 vs. LA (0-4) and SA (3-2) this year.

That is what the league is going with, since you can rank LA/SA/MN distinctly (LA clear first, SA clear second, and MN clear third) you rank all three and use that order instead of going to a head to head between second and third.

(not my rules)

See Notable at bottom of this page:
http://www.wnba.com/lynx/news/lynx_playoff_chances_2010_08_17.html




Last edited by RI_Sun_Fan on 08/21/10 12:46 am; edited 1 time in total
pilight



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PostPosted: 08/21/10 12:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I hope it does end in a three way tie, just so we can have some sort of precedent to go by.



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Nerd2



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PostPosted: 08/21/10 12:46 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
p_d_swanson wrote:
I believe this is correct in your scenario, as the tie for 3rd place would be broken first and then the two remaining teams would be compared for 4th...


If this is true, then the LA game tomorrow has no bearing on whether or not Minnesota makes the playoffs. The Sparks would win a three way tie, leaving Minnesota two win a two way over the SASS.

Nerd2 wrote:
Conversely, if LA wins it would be LA (5-3), SAN (5-4) and MIN (3-6). Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct.


That's a completely nonsensical way to tiebreak. Why on earth would a tie for fourth between San Antonio and Minnesota be broken based on how well they did against LA?

The three way tiebreak is for third place. Once that's broken in LA's favor, their results shouldn't affect the remaining two way tie for 4th.


It's the WNBA! of course it's nonsensical!

Actually, it is perfectly logical. It is a 3 way tie. You need a way to rank these teams and the next way they have determined is the winning percentage for the teams as they play each other. In other words, a head 2 head 2 head matchup. Since one of the other tiebreaks is how you do against all other teams in the conference, how is this worse if you just match how you do against the other teams involved in the tiebreak? It's no less logical than one of the other tiebreaks where you match the winning percentages against any other team with > .500 record. Or, when all else fails, a coin toss.


pilight



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PostPosted: 08/21/10 12:53 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nerd2 wrote:
It's the WNBA! of course it's nonsensical!


Expect Nonsense!

Quote:
Actually, it is perfectly logical. It is a 3 way tie. You need a way to rank these teams and the next way they have determined is the winning percentage for the teams as they play each other. In other words, a head 2 head 2 head matchup. Since one of the other tiebreaks is how you do against all other teams in the conference, how is this worse if you just match how you do against the other teams involved in the tiebreak? It's no less logical than one of the other tiebreaks where you match the winning percentages against any other team with > .500 record. Or, when all else fails, a coin toss.


It's a three way for third, which would be broken in favor of the Sparks. We all agree on that.

Once third is determined, we're left with a two way tie for 4th. Minnesota ought to win such a tie, as they were 3-2 against the SASS. Apparently they won't, however, because they struggled against LA.



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