View previous topic :: View next topic |
Author |
Message |
Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24397 Location: London
Back to top |
Posted: 08/15/10 9:13 pm ::: Three-Way Fun? |
Reply |
|
Okay, now that that title got you interested, time to talk about the three-way tie again .
Right now, if Minnesota, San Antonio and LA all finished tied, SASS are 5-4 in the head-to-head-to-head, LA are 4-3, and Minny are 3-5. With one game left between LA and Minnesota. Now to me, that seems pretty straightforward. Regardless of the result in Friday's Min-LA game, SASS and LA should go into the playoffs and Minnesota would go out, because there's no way they can catch either of the others.
However, I vaguely remember p_d saying something about the three-way tie-break deciding the top team, then starting over with the two-way tie-break to decide who comes next. So say LA beat Minnesota on Friday, but the rest of the results through the week bring about a three-way tie. That leaves the head-to-head-to-head looking like this:
LA 5-3
SASS 5-4
Min 3-6
Again, to me that looks like the Lynx should be done. But if the three-way decides LA finish third in the conference, and then they re-start with the two-way tie-break between the remaining teams, Minnesota have the edge on San Antonio 3-2 on their head-to-head.
So help me out here, someone who knows what's going on. Would Minnesota really hop over San Antonio despite being a clear third in the theoretical three-way tie?
|
|
Nerd2
Joined: 06 Jun 2010 Posts: 7659
Back to top |
Posted: 08/15/10 9:19 pm ::: Re: Three-Way Fun? |
Reply |
|
Richyyy wrote: |
Okay, now that that title got you interested, time to talk about the three-way tie again .
Right now, if Minnesota, San Antonio and LA all finished tied, SASS are 5-4 in the head-to-head-to-head, LA are 4-3, and Minny are 3-5. With one game left between LA and Minnesota. Now to me, that seems pretty straightforward. Regardless of the result in Friday's Min-LA game, SASS and LA should go into the playoffs and Minnesota would go out, because there's no way they can catch either of the others.
However, I vaguely remember p_d saying something about the three-way tie-break deciding the top team, then starting over with the two-way tie-break to decide who comes next. So say LA beat Minnesota on Friday, but the rest of the results through the week bring about a three-way tie. That leaves the head-to-head-to-head looking like this:
LA 5-3
SASS 5-4
Min 3-6
Again, to me that looks like the Lynx should be done. But if the three-way decides LA finish third in the conference, and then they re-start with the two-way tie-break between the remaining teams, Minnesota have the edge on San Antonio 3-2 on their head-to-head.
So help me out here, someone who knows what's going on. Would Minnesota really hop over San Antonio despite being a clear third in the theoretical three-way tie? |
I was confused by that too. Currently, the 3 way standings are : LA (4-3), SAN (5-4), MIN (3-5) so if it was used to knock a team out and reapply, it would either be LA, MIN, SAN (top out, then h2h tiebreak) or SAN, LA, MIN (bottom out first, then h2h). But the .com standings seem like they are going purely by the h2h % between the 3 (LA, SAN, MIN).
|
|
p_d_swanson
Joined: 01 Dec 2004 Posts: 9713
Back to top |
Posted: 08/15/10 9:23 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Richyyy wrote: |
So help me out here, someone who knows what's going on. Would Minnesota really hop over San Antonio despite being a clear third in the theoretical three-way tie? |
I believe this is correct in your scenario, as the tie for 3rd place would be broken first and then the two remaining teams would be compared for 4th...
Quote: |
K. PLAYOFFS/TIEBREAK FORMULA
2. Tiebreak Procedure.
c. More Than Two Teams Tied. As many teams as possible will be eliminated at each step. As soon as one or more teams are eliminated at any step, the process must begin again from step (1).
(1) Better winning percentage among all head-to-head games involving tied teams.
(2) Better winning percentage against teams within conference.
(3) Better winning percentage against all teams with a .500 or better record at the end of the season.
(4) Better point differential in games involving tied teams.
(5) Coin toss. |
|
|
gpark33
Joined: 17 Oct 2005 Posts: 5116
Back to top |
Posted: 08/15/10 9:28 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Is it safe to say everyone holds their own fate? At most, two of the three teams could win out (due to a head to head with Minny and LA). If two of them do win out, they make it, right?
_________________ The teacher and the student.
|
|
mozzie
Joined: 12 Jul 2010 Posts: 647
Back to top |
Posted: 08/15/10 9:31 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
p_d_swanson wrote: |
Quote: |
K. PLAYOFFS/TIEBREAK FORMULA
2. Tiebreak Procedure.
c. More Than Two Teams Tied. As many teams as possible will be eliminated at each step. As soon as one or more teams are eliminated at any step, the process must begin again from step (1).
(1) Better winning percentage among all head-to-head games involving tied teams.
(2) Better winning percentage against teams within conference.
(3) Better winning percentage against all teams with a .500 or better record at the end of the season.
(4) Better point differential in games involving tied teams.
(5) Coin toss. |
|
So through today's games that means LA is #3 and Minnesota is #4.
|
|
Nerd2
Joined: 06 Jun 2010 Posts: 7659
Back to top |
Posted: 08/15/10 9:35 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
p_d_swanson wrote: |
Richyyy wrote: |
So help me out here, someone who knows what's going on. Would Minnesota really hop over San Antonio despite being a clear third in the theoretical three-way tie? |
I believe this is correct in your scenario, as the tie for 3rd place would be broken first and then the two remaining teams would be compared for 4th...
Quote: |
K. PLAYOFFS/TIEBREAK FORMULA
2. Tiebreak Procedure.
c. More Than Two Teams Tied. As many teams as possible will be eliminated at each step. As soon as one or more teams are eliminated at any step, the process must begin again from step (1).
(1) Better winning percentage among all head-to-head games involving tied teams.
(2) Better winning percentage against teams within conference.
(3) Better winning percentage against all teams with a .500 or better record at the end of the season.
(4) Better point differential in games involving tied teams.
(5) Coin toss. |
|
Actually, that says to me "as many teams as possible are eliminated at any step." Since currently the scores are LA (4-3), SAN (5-4), MIN (3-5), the .com standings are set up as LA, then SAN, then MIN. It suggests that since there is a clear ranking between the 3 (meaning no two are still tied after laying this out) then you can use this as the basis for all three. That means that if LA loses against MIN, it would be SAN (5-4), LA (4-4) and MIN (4-5) and this is how it would end in the rankings. Conversely, if LA wins it would be LA (5-3), SAN (5-4) and MIN (3-6). Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct.
|
|
Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24397 Location: London
Back to top |
Posted: 08/15/10 9:39 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
mozzie wrote: |
So through today's games that means LA is #3 and Minnesota is #4. |
'If the season ended today...', as the saying goes, yes, if you accept p_d's interpretation. LA win the three-way, then Minny win the two-way over SASS. Of course, the bizarre thing is that remaining game. If Minnesota win, LA drop to 4-4 in the three-way, which means SASS now finish top of the three-way tie, and LA would then win the remaining two-way tie over Minnesota.
I don't think there's any scenario in which Minnesota would actually be better off overall just throwing the game against LA, but it's bizarre that winning a game would actually hurt them in a potential ultimate tie-break.
gpark33 wrote: |
Is it safe to say everyone holds their own fate? At most, two of the three teams could win out (due to a head to head with Minny and LA). If two of them do win out, they make it, right? |
Yes. Win all three games you have left, you're in. That applies to all three teams.
Nerd2 wrote: |
Actually, that says to me "as many teams as possible are eliminated at any step." |
I'll throw my hat into the ring and say you could read it either way .
|
|
Nerd2
Joined: 06 Jun 2010 Posts: 7659
Back to top |
Posted: 08/15/10 9:40 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
gpark33 wrote: |
Is it safe to say everyone holds their own fate? At most, two of the three teams could win out (due to a head to head with Minny and LA). If two of them do win out, they make it, right? |
That's what it seems to me. If Minny wins out then they will have 19 losses to LA's 20 losses and SAN will also have 19 losses. If LA wins out they will have 19 losses and MIN 20 losses with SAN at 19 losses. Bottom line is Minny needs one more win than whatever LA gets and the same # as whatever SAN gets. If they do that, they are in. Any less than that and they are out.
|
|
Nerd2
Joined: 06 Jun 2010 Posts: 7659
Back to top |
|
Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24397 Location: London
Back to top |
Posted: 08/15/10 10:17 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
I'll happily ignore the .com's standings. This is the same page that didn't signify Seattle as anything way beyond the stage at which you could calculate they'd won the conference on one hand.
Nerd2 wrote: |
There are a couple of ways that losing to LA could still let MIN get into the playoffs but it would involve getting help from other teams. |
Yes, but my point was that I don't think there's any real way that losing to LA would be better than just beating LA. Because it only helps if you fall into a 3-way tie (if we were going with p_d's interpretation). Beat LA, and you just avoid the three-way anyway by finishing above them on record.
|
|
p_d_swanson
Joined: 01 Dec 2004 Posts: 9713
Back to top |
Posted: 08/16/10 9:19 am ::: |
Reply |
|
Nerd2 wrote: |
Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct. |
Am told this morning that your version is the accurate one...
|
|
Nerd2
Joined: 06 Jun 2010 Posts: 7659
Back to top |
|
patsweetpat
Joined: 14 Jul 2010 Posts: 2313 Location: Culver City, CA
Back to top |
|
Nerd2
Joined: 06 Jun 2010 Posts: 7659
Back to top |
|
patsweetpat
Joined: 14 Jul 2010 Posts: 2313 Location: Culver City, CA
Back to top |
|
Nerd2
Joined: 06 Jun 2010 Posts: 7659
Back to top |
|
p_d_swanson
Joined: 01 Dec 2004 Posts: 9713
Back to top |
Posted: 08/17/10 4:27 am ::: |
Reply |
|
Nerd2 wrote: |
Minnesota really needs to beat LA. I think both Minnesota and LA will lose its other two so that Thursday game is the key one. |
On the other hand, should San Antonio go winless this week, the Lynx will qualify regardless of their own results...
|
|
Force10rulz
Joined: 11 Apr 2009 Posts: 1966 Location: Puget Sound
Back to top |
|
p_d_swanson
Joined: 01 Dec 2004 Posts: 9713
Back to top |
Posted: 08/17/10 4:48 am ::: |
Reply |
|
August Standings:
Code: |
East W L Pct GB
----------- - - ----- ---
New York 6 0 1.000 -
Indiana 5 2 .714 1.5
Washington 5 2 .714 1.5
Atlanta 2 4 .333 4
Connecticut 2 5 .286 4.5
Chicago 1 4 .200 4.5
West W L Pct GB
----------- - - ----- ---
Los Angeles 4 2 .667 -
Minnesota 5 3 .625 -
Phoenix 3 4 .429 1.5
Seattle 3 4 .429 1.5
San Antonio 2 4 .333 2
Tulsa 1 5 .167 3 |
|
|
RI_Sun_Fan
Joined: 16 Jan 2010 Posts: 858
Back to top |
Posted: 08/21/10 12:22 am ::: |
Reply |
|
Bump
|
|
pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67051 Location: Where the action is
Back to top |
Posted: 08/21/10 12:33 am ::: |
Reply |
|
p_d_swanson wrote: |
I believe this is correct in your scenario, as the tie for 3rd place would be broken first and then the two remaining teams would be compared for 4th... |
If this is true, then the LA game tomorrow has no bearing on whether or not Minnesota makes the playoffs. The Sparks would win a three way tie, leaving Minnesota two win a two way over the SASS.
Nerd2 wrote: |
Conversely, if LA wins it would be LA (5-3), SAN (5-4) and MIN (3-6). Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct. |
That's a completely nonsensical way to tiebreak. Why on earth would a tie for fourth between San Antonio and Minnesota be broken based on how well they did against LA?
The three way tiebreak is for third place. Once that's broken in LA's favor, their results shouldn't affect the remaining two way tie for 4th.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
|
|
RI_Sun_Fan
Joined: 16 Jan 2010 Posts: 858
Back to top |
Posted: 08/21/10 12:41 am ::: |
Reply |
|
In a three-way tie, the order would be determined by a head-to-head total of the involved teams. MN’s record vs. SA and LA; LA’s record vs. MN and SA; SA’s record vs. LA and MN, the Lynx would miss the playoffs by virtue of LA’s 5-3 record vs. SA/MN and SA’s 5-4 record vs. LA/MN. The Lynx are a combined 3-6 vs. LA (0-4) and SA (3-2) this year.
That is what the league is going with, since you can rank LA/SA/MN distinctly (LA clear first, SA clear second, and MN clear third) you rank all three and use that order instead of going to a head to head between second and third.
(not my rules)
See Notable at bottom of this page:
http://www.wnba.com/lynx/news/lynx_playoff_chances_2010_08_17.html
Last edited by RI_Sun_Fan on 08/21/10 12:46 am; edited 1 time in total |
|
pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67051 Location: Where the action is
Back to top |
Posted: 08/21/10 12:45 am ::: |
Reply |
|
I hope it does end in a three way tie, just so we can have some sort of precedent to go by.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
|
|
Nerd2
Joined: 06 Jun 2010 Posts: 7659
Back to top |
Posted: 08/21/10 12:46 am ::: |
Reply |
|
pilight wrote: |
p_d_swanson wrote: |
I believe this is correct in your scenario, as the tie for 3rd place would be broken first and then the two remaining teams would be compared for 4th... |
If this is true, then the LA game tomorrow has no bearing on whether or not Minnesota makes the playoffs. The Sparks would win a three way tie, leaving Minnesota two win a two way over the SASS.
Nerd2 wrote: |
Conversely, if LA wins it would be LA (5-3), SAN (5-4) and MIN (3-6). Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct. |
That's a completely nonsensical way to tiebreak. Why on earth would a tie for fourth between San Antonio and Minnesota be broken based on how well they did against LA?
The three way tiebreak is for third place. Once that's broken in LA's favor, their results shouldn't affect the remaining two way tie for 4th. |
It's the WNBA! of course it's nonsensical!
Actually, it is perfectly logical. It is a 3 way tie. You need a way to rank these teams and the next way they have determined is the winning percentage for the teams as they play each other. In other words, a head 2 head 2 head matchup. Since one of the other tiebreaks is how you do against all other teams in the conference, how is this worse if you just match how you do against the other teams involved in the tiebreak? It's no less logical than one of the other tiebreaks where you match the winning percentages against any other team with > .500 record. Or, when all else fails, a coin toss.
|
|
pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67051 Location: Where the action is
Back to top |
Posted: 08/21/10 12:53 am ::: |
Reply |
|
Nerd2 wrote: |
It's the WNBA! of course it's nonsensical! |
Expect Nonsense!
Quote: |
Actually, it is perfectly logical. It is a 3 way tie. You need a way to rank these teams and the next way they have determined is the winning percentage for the teams as they play each other. In other words, a head 2 head 2 head matchup. Since one of the other tiebreaks is how you do against all other teams in the conference, how is this worse if you just match how you do against the other teams involved in the tiebreak? It's no less logical than one of the other tiebreaks where you match the winning percentages against any other team with > .500 record. Or, when all else fails, a coin toss. |
It's a three way for third, which would be broken in favor of the Sparks. We all agree on that.
Once third is determined, we're left with a two way tie for 4th. Minnesota ought to win such a tie, as they were 3-2 against the SASS. Apparently they won't, however, because they struggled against LA.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
|
|
|
|