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WNBA Hollinger Power Rankings
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petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/15/09 6:49 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

With the Storm's loss to the Sky there's a new queen of the rankings.

Ratings after 6/14/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Mystics 107.6
Storm 107.1
Lynx 106.7
Dream 102.0
Sky 100.4
Monarchs 98.9
Shock 98.8
Fever 97.9
Mercury 96.9
Sun 96.4
Liberty 94.6
Sparks 93.7
Silver Stars 93.5

RPI Strength of Schedule

Sky 0.584
Dream 0.584
Monarchs 0.569
Fever 0.525
Storm 0.515
Sun 0.510
Lynx 0.508
Sparks 0.497
Liberty 0.493
Shock 0.461
Mystics 0.443
Silver Stars 0.407
Mercury 0.359

Pythagorean Projections

Mystics 0.856
Lynx 0.833
Storm 0.747
Mercury 0.612
Shock 0.560
Sky 0.464
Fever 0.447
Dream 0.392
Monarchs 0.355
Sun 0.342
Silver Stars 0.288
Liberty 0.184
Sparks 0.134

Average Margin of Victory

Lynx 8.250
Mystics 8.000
Storm 4.600
Mercury 2.500
Shock 1.000
Sky -0.667
Fever -1.000
Dream -2.000
Sun -2.667
Monarchs -3.000
Silver Stars -4.000
Liberty -6.333
Sparks -8.000


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/17/09 6:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Two very close games yesterday that don't change the balance of the Hollinger Rankings.

Ratings After 6/16/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 107.2
Mystics 107.2
Lynx 106.3
Dream 101.8
Monarchs 100.2
Sky 99.6
Shock 98.9
Sun 98.7
Fever 98.3
Mercury 96.6
Sparks 94.2
Liberty 93.8
Silver Stars 93.1

RPI Strength of Schedule

Monarchs 0.593
Dream 0.575
Sun 0.554
Sky 0.542
Fever 0.539
Storm 0.518
Sparks 0.517
Lynx 0.492
Shock 0.466
Liberty 0.463
Mystics 0.426
Silver Stars 0.392
Mercury 0.345

Pythagorean Projections

Mystics 0.856
Lynx 0.802
Storm 0.747
Mercury 0.612
Shock 0.560
Sky 0.513
Fever 0.447
Dream 0.392
Monarchs 0.355
Sun 0.343
Silver Stars 0.288
Liberty 0.184
Sparks 0.134

Average Margin of Victory

Mystics 8.000
Lynx 7.200
Storm 4.600
Mercury 2.500
Shock 1.000
Sky 0.250
Fever -1.000
Dream -2.000
Sun -2.750
Monarchs -3.000
Silver Stars -4.000
Liberty -6.333
Sparks -8.000


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/18/09 7:53 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'll be out of town for a few days, so if you don't see rankings over the weekend...don't fret, I haven't abandoned the rankings.

In the meantime, the Mercury starts to rise in today's Hollinger rankings....

Hollinger Rankings

Mystics 107.2
Storm 106.8
Mercury 102.7
Lynx 102.4
Dream 101.6
Monarchs 100.5
Sky 99.2
Shock 98.7
Sun 98.7
Fever 97.8
Silver Stars 95.2
Liberty 95.1
Sparks 93.8

RPI Strength of Schedule

Monarchs 0.604
Dream 0.569
Sun 0.554
Sky 0.526
Fever 0.522
Lynx 0.516
Liberty 0.511
Storm 0.505
Sparks 0.500
Silver Stars 0.469
Shock 0.458
Mercury 0.426
Mystics 0.426

Pythagorean Projections

Mystics 0.856
Mercury 0.775
Storm 0.747
Lynx 0.595
Shock 0.560
Sky 0.513
Fever 0.447
Dream 0.392
Monarchs 0.355
Sun 0.343
Silver Stars 0.288
Liberty 0.184
Sparks 0.134

Average Margin of Victory

Mystics 8.000
Mercury 6.800
Storm 4.600
Lynx 2.000
Shock 1.000
Sky 0.250
Fever -1.000
Dream -2.000
Sun -2.750
Monarchs -3.000
Silver Stars -4.000
Liberty -6.333
Sparks -8.000


Luuuc
#NATC


Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 21900



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PostPosted: 06/18/09 8:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

petrel wrote:
In the meantime, the Mercury starts to rise in today's Hollinger rankings....

... and yet somehow, despite being 4-1, we are second-last on the bizarro Strength Of Schedule rankings.
petrel wrote:
RPI Strength of Schedule

Monarchs 0.604
Dream 0.569
Sun 0.554
Sky 0.526
Fever 0.522
Lynx 0.516
Liberty 0.511
Storm 0.505
Sparks 0.500
Silver Stars 0.469
Shock 0.458
Mercury 0.426
Mystics 0.426


I am assuming that one should be read upside down.



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Linzin



Joined: 19 May 2007
Posts: 3046



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PostPosted: 06/18/09 8:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
petrel wrote:
In the meantime, the Mercury starts to rise in today's Hollinger rankings....

... and yet somehow, despite being 4-1, we are second-last on the bizarro Strength Of Schedule rankings.
petrel wrote:
RPI Strength of Schedule

Monarchs 0.604
Dream 0.569
Sun 0.554
Sky 0.526
Fever 0.522
Lynx 0.516
Liberty 0.511
Storm 0.505
Sparks 0.500
Silver Stars 0.469
Shock 0.458
Mercury 0.426
Mystics 0.426


I am assuming that one should be read upside down.


Well, a low strength of schedule means the teams you played against suck. This early in the season, winning teams will probably automatically have a very low strength of schedule simply because the teams they won against will have a bad record, and vice versa. Take the Monarchs, for instance. They have the highest strength of schedule because they lost to the Storm, Lynx, and Lifelocks. Wink If they'd won, their strength of schedule would be lower because those three teams would be several wins shorter than they are now. (...this whole strength of schedule thing confuses me too, but that's how I've figured it, at least.)



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Luuuc
#NATC


Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 21900



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PostPosted: 06/18/09 8:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah, it's weird.

The Monarchs & Lifelocks being at opposite ends of that list is odd given that we have played each other twice and split the wins.
There must be other factors in the equation otherwise it is a pretty pointless ranking system. (but I'm too lazy to look up the formula atm, so I'll just stay here making ignorant comments about it Razz )



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petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/18/09 8:51 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yep, that's pretty much the explanation, at least early in the season.

It's sort of circular mathematical reasoning:

"The reason my team has a low strength of schedule is because the teams we played against suck."
"The reason the teams we played against suck is because they don't win games."
"The reason they have no wins in the few games they've played...is because we were the ones that beat them."

In order to counter for that, RPI Strength of Schedule takes into account not just your opponent's wins and losses...but your opponent's opponent's wins and losses, i. e. it tries to give back what it took away from you. However, since the balance is about 2/3 to 1/3 on the above, teams that win early and often will take a hit in the strength of schedule, but that hit will go away as more games are played by all the teams in the league.


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/20/09 12:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Now that I have the power of the internet back, I can update my Hollinger Power Rankings.

Rankings after 6/19/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 109.3
Mystics 104.4
Sun 102.9
Dream 102.7
Mercury 102.3
Monarchs 100.7
Fever 100.6
Liberty 99.1
Lynx 98.6
Shock 94.7
Sparks 94.0
Silver Stars 92.5
Sky 89.8

RPI Strength of Schedule

Monarchs 0.610
Dream 0.545
Sky 0.522
Lynx 0.516
Sparks 0.505
Liberty 0.493
Sun 0.493
Fever 0.488
Mystics 0.487
Storm 0.486
Silver Stars 0.476
Shock 0.451
Mercury 0.407

Pythagorean Projections

Storm 0.878
Mercury 0.789
Sun 0.708
Mystics 0.655
Fever 0.589
Dream 0.542
Liberty 0.456
Lynx 0.390
Shock 0.364
Monarchs 0.355
Sky 0.223
Sparks 0.137
Silver Stars 0.137

Average Margin of Victory

Storm 8.500
Mercury 7.167
Sun 3.800
Mystics 3.000
Fever 1.600
Dream 0.800
Liberty -0.750
Shock -2.250
Lynx -2.286
Monarchs -3.000
Silver Stars -8.000
Sparks -8.200
Sky -9.667


StevenHW



Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 10979
Location: Sacramento, California


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PostPosted: 06/20/09 12:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

petrel wrote:
Now that I have the power of the internet back, I can update my Hollinger Power Rankings.

Rankings after 6/19/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 109.3
Mystics 104.4
Sun 102.9
Dream 102.7
Mercury 102.3
Monarchs 100.7...[snip]...


Not too bad for a team that's 1-4! Shocked



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petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/21/09 8:20 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Only one game, but the rankings liked what they saw from the Chicago Sky....

Rankings after 6/20/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 109.7
Mystics 105.1
Sun 104.3
Dream 103.7
Mercury 102.3
Monarchs 100.8
Fever 100.8
Liberty 99.3
Lynx 98.9
Sky 95.3
Shock 95.2
Sparks 94.2
Silver Stars 92.5

RPI Strength of Schedule

Monarchs 0.615
Dream 0.582
Sky 0.559
Sun 0.546
Lynx 0.527
Sparks 0.510
Mystics 0.508
Liberty 0.502
Storm 0.501
Fever 0.495
Silver Stars 0.476
Shock 0.470
Mercury 0.407

Pythagorean Projections

Storm 0.878
Mercury 0.789
Mystics 0.711
Sun 0.708
Fever 0.589
Dream 0.542
Liberty 0.456
Lynx 0.390
Shock 0.364
Monarchs 0.355
Sky 0.204
Sparks 0.137
Silver Stars 0.137

Average Margin of Victory

Storm 8.500
Mercury 7.167
Mystics 4.200
Sun 3.800
Fever 1.600
Dream 0.800
Liberty -0.750
Shock -2.250
Lynx -2.286
Monarchs -3.000
Sky -6.333
Silver Stars -8.000
Sparks -8.200


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/22/09 7:24 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Fever and the Liberty are the big winners in the most recent Hollinger rankings.

Rankings after 6/21/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 110.3
Mystics 104.6
Sun 104.6
Fever 101.4
Liberty 100.8
Mercury 100.8
Dream 100.5
Lynx 99.2
Monarchs 97.4
Sparks 96.8
Sky 95.5
Shock 95.5
Silver Stars 92.5

RPI Strength of Schedule

Monarchs 0.577
Sky 0.569
Dream 0.567
Lynx 0.536
Shock 0.516
Sun 0.516
Storm 0.508
Silver Stars 0.500
Mystics 0.490
Liberty 0.488
Fever 0.473
Sparks 0.470
Mercury 0.441

Pythagorean Projections

Storm 0.873
Sun 0.779
Mystics 0.711
Mercury 0.710
Fever 0.678
Liberty 0.600
Dream 0.431
Lynx 0.390
Sparks 0.307
Shock 0.267
Monarchs 0.227
Sky 0.204
Silver Stars 0.101

Average Margin of Victory

Storm 8.571
Sun 5.333
Mercury 4.857
Mystics 4.200
Fever 3.333
Liberty 1.800
Dream -1.333
Lynx -2.286
Sparks -3.500
Shock -4.200
Monarchs -5.833
Sky -6.333
Silver Stars -9.250


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/24/09 6:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Liberty take the biggest bruising, and the Sun move up a notch in the recent Hollinger rankings.

Rankings after 6/23/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 110.5
Sun 104.7
Mystics 104.4
Fever 101.5
Mercury 100.6
Lynx 100.0
Dream 100.0
Liberty 99.8
Monarchs 97.1
Sparks 96.8
Sky 96.7
Shock 95.5
Silver Stars 93.8

RPI Strength of Schedule

Monarchs 0.566
Dream 0.565
Sky 0.554
Sun 0.521
Lynx 0.520
Storm 0.516
Shock 0.516
Liberty 0.511
Silver Stars 0.488
Mystics 0.480
Fever 0.475
Sparks 0.469
Mercury 0.449

Pythagorean Projections

Storm 0.873
Sun 0.779
Mystics 0.711
Fever 0.678
Mercury 0.666
Lynx 0.475
Liberty 0.471
Dream 0.436
Sparks 0.307
Shock 0.267
Sky 0.251
Monarchs 0.227
Silver Stars 0.186

Average Margin of Victory

Storm 8.571
Sun 5.333
Mystics 4.200
Mercury 3.750
Fever 3.333
Liberty -0.500
Lynx -0.500
Dream -1.286
Sparks -3.500
Shock -4.200
Sky -5.286
Monarchs -5.833
Silver Stars -6.600


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/26/09 6:52 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Phoenix's road win over Washington doesn't leapfrog them over the Mystics in the Hollinger rankings, but Phoenix continues to move upward.

Rankings after 6/25/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 110.8
Sun 104.5
Mystics 102.5
Mercury 102.1
Fever 101.5
Lynx 100.3
Liberty 100.1
Dream 99.5
Monarchs 97.5
Sparks 97.1
Sky 96.4
Shock 95.4
Silver Stars 94.4

RPI Strength of Schedule

Monarchs 0.582
Dream 0.549
Sky 0.545
Lynx 0.529
Storm 0.526
Liberty 0.521
Sun 0.512
Silver Stars 0.511
Shock 0.509
Mystics 0.500
Sparks 0.480
Fever 0.474
Mercury 0.471

Pythagorean Projections

Storm 0.873
Sun 0.779
Fever 0.678
Mercury 0.676
Mystics 0.627
Lynx 0.475
Liberty 0.471
Dream 0.436
Sparks 0.307
Shock 0.267
Sky 0.251
Monarchs 0.227
Silver Stars 0.186

Average Margin of Victory

Storm 8.571
Sun 5.333
Mercury 4.000
Fever 3.333
Mystics 2.500
Liberty -0.500
Lynx -0.500
Dream -1.286
Sparks -3.500
Shock -4.200
Sky -5.286
Monarchs -5.833
Silver Stars -6.600


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/27/09 12:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Four games yesterday, but only the Sparks move up in the Hollinger Rankings on the strength of a close away loss to the Storm.

Rankings after 6/26/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 108.5
Sun 104.7
Mystics 102.4
Mercury 101.9
Fever 100.9
Lynx 100.1
Liberty 100.1
Dream 99.6
Sparks 97.7
Monarchs 96.9
Sky 96.7
Shock 95.6
Silver Stars 95.4

RPI Strength of Schedule

Monarchs 0.569
Sky 0.556
Liberty 0.543
Lynx 0.524
Sun 0.519
Dream 0.513
Shock 0.502
Storm 0.497
Mystics 0.495
Sparks 0.482
Silver Stars 0.470
Mercury 0.465
Fever 0.441

Pythagorean Projections

Storm 0.853
Sun 0.779
Mercury 0.676
Fever 0.659
Mystics 0.627
Dream 0.506
Lynx 0.475
Liberty 0.468
Sparks 0.316
Silver Stars 0.291
Sky 0.251
Shock 0.235
Monarchs 0.197

Average Margin of Victory

Storm 7.750
Sun 5.333
Mercury 4.000
Fever 3.000
Mystics 2.500
Dream 0.125
Lynx -0.500
Liberty -0.571
Sparks -3.286
Silver Stars -3.833
Shock -4.429
Sky -5.286
Monarchs -6.429


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/28/09 9:01 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Lynx's 109-80 victory over the Mercury last night gave them the biggest boost in the Hollinger Rankings:

Ratings after 6/27/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 109.0
Sun 105.2
Lynx 103.2
Mystics 102.1
Fever 101.1
Liberty 99.8
Mercury 99.5
Dream 98.7
Sparks 97.9
Sky 97.4
Monarchs 96.8
Shock 95.6
Silver Stars 95.0

RPI Strength of Schedule

Monarchs 0.564
Liberty 0.554
Sky 0.551
Lynx 0.529
Dream 0.520
Storm 0.512
Mystics 0.507
Sun 0.505
Shock 0.500
Sparks 0.489
Mercury 0.482
Silver Stars 0.457
Fever 0.434

Pythagorean Projections

Storm 0.853
Sun 0.823
Fever 0.700
Lynx 0.634
Mystics 0.576
Mercury 0.532
Dream 0.428
Liberty 0.407
Sparks 0.316
Sky 0.300
Silver Stars 0.291
Shock 0.235
Monarchs 0.197

Average Margin of Victory

Storm 7.750
Sun 6.571
Fever 3.750
Lynx 2.778
Mystics 1.429
Mercury 0.700
Dream -1.444
Liberty -1.625
Sparks -3.286
Silver Stars -3.833
Sky -4.000
Shock -4.429
Monarchs -6.429


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/29/09 6:49 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

With their loss to the Sparks, the Storm take a tumble out of the top of the Hollinger Rankings.

Ratings after 6/28/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Sun 105.2
Storm 104.9
Lynx 102.8
Mystics 102.2
Fever 101.4
Sparks 101.4
Liberty 99.8
Mercury 99.2
Dream 98.8
Sky 97.2
Shock 97.0
Silver Stars 94.8
Monarchs 94.2

RPI Strength of Schedule

Liberty 0.554
Sky 0.545
Monarchs 0.526
Dream 0.524
Lynx 0.516
Mystics 0.510
Sun 0.505
Sparks 0.499
Storm 0.494
Shock 0.484
Mercury 0.470
Silver Stars 0.448
Fever 0.444

Pythagorean Projections

Sun 0.823
Storm 0.708
Fever 0.700
Lynx 0.634
Mystics 0.576
Mercury 0.532
Sparks 0.529
Dream 0.428
Liberty 0.407
Shock 0.366
Sky 0.300
Silver Stars 0.291
Monarchs 0.168

Average Margin of Victory

Sun 6.571
Storm 3.889
Fever 3.750
Lynx 2.778
Mystics 1.429
Mercury 0.700
Sparks 0.500
Dream -1.444
Liberty -1.625
Shock -2.125
Silver Stars -3.833
Sky -4.000
Monarchs -7.375


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 07/01/09 7:11 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Rankings after 6/30/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Sun 105.2
Storm 105.0
Lynx 103.3
Mystics 102.4
Fever 101.4
Sparks 101.4
Liberty 99.6
Mercury 99.2
Dream 98.7
Shock 97.0
Sky 96.7
Monarchs 95.3
Silver Stars 94.8

RPI Strength of Schedule

Dream 0.549
Liberty 0.544
Monarchs 0.535
Sky 0.517
Lynx 0.508
Sun 0.505
Mystics 0.502
Sparks 0.500
Storm 0.497
Shock 0.482
Mercury 0.469
Silver Stars 0.460
Fever 0.446

Pythagorean Projections

Sun 0.823
Storm 0.708
Fever 0.700
Lynx 0.648
Mystics 0.579
Mercury 0.532
Sparks 0.529
Liberty 0.407
Dream 0.407
Shock 0.366
Sky 0.330
Silver Stars 0.308
Monarchs 0.186

Average Margin of Victory

Sun 6.571
Storm 3.889
Fever 3.750
Lynx 3.100
Mystics 1.500
Mercury 0.700
Sparks 0.500
Liberty -1.625
Dream -1.900
Shock -2.125
Sky -3.333
Silver Stars -3.571
Monarchs -6.778


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 07/02/09 6:57 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

With the Mercury's 11th game, the rankings now begins to put special emphasis on the last 10 games of each team.....

Hollinger Rankings

Sun 105.2
Storm 104.0
Lynx 103.4
Mystics 102.7
Sparks 101.6
Fever 101.6
Mercury 100.0
Liberty 99.7
Dream 98.9
Sky 96.7
Shock 96.7
Monarchs 95.5
Silver Stars 95.2

RPI Strength of Schedule

Dream 0.554
Liberty 0.550
Monarchs 0.541
Sky 0.515
Mystics 0.512
Storm 0.511
Lynx 0.511
Sparks 0.507
Sun 0.506
Shock 0.485
Mercury 0.479
Silver Stars 0.474
Fever 0.452

Pythagorean Projections

Sun 0.823
Fever 0.700
Lynx 0.648
Storm 0.626
Mercury 0.579
Mystics 0.579
Sparks 0.529
Liberty 0.407
Dream 0.407
Shock 0.366
Sky 0.330
Silver Stars 0.308
Monarchs 0.186

Average Margin of Victory

Sun 6.571
Fever 3.750
Lynx 3.100
Storm 2.300
Mercury 1.727
Mystics 1.500
Sparks 0.500
Liberty -1.625
Dream -1.900
Shock -2.429
Sky -3.333
Silver Stars -3.571
Monarchs -6.778


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 07/03/09 9:16 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

With the Sun's loss, the Storm take their spot back at the top of the rankings.

Ratings after 7/2/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 104.0
Sun 103.8
Fever 102.5
Mystics 102.5
Lynx 101.5
Sparks 101.4
Liberty 100.7
Mercury 100.1
Dream 98.5
Monarchs 97.0
Sky 96.4
Shock 95.5
Silver Stars 95.5

RPI Strength of Schedule

Dream 0.542
Monarchs 0.539
Liberty 0.527
Sun 0.526
Storm 0.513
Sky 0.506
Mystics 0.503
Sparks 0.503
Lynx 0.501
Shock 0.488
Silver Stars 0.485
Mercury 0.482
Fever 0.453

Pythagorean Projections

Fever 0.755
Sun 0.722
Storm 0.626
Lynx 0.612
Mercury 0.579
Mystics 0.579
Sparks 0.529
Liberty 0.519
Dream 0.407
Sky 0.330
Silver Stars 0.308
Shock 0.283
Monarchs 0.230

Average Margin of Victory

Fever 4.889
Sun 4.000
Storm 2.300
Lynx 2.273
Mercury 1.727
Mystics 1.500
Sparks 0.500
Liberty 0.333
Dream -1.900
Sky -3.333
Silver Stars -3.571
Shock -4.125
Monarchs -5.500


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 07/04/09 8:21 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ratings after 7/3/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 104.0
Sun 103.8
Fever 102.6
Mystics 101.8
Lynx 101.5
Sparks 101.4
Liberty 101.0
Mercury 100.2
Dream 98.6
Silver Stars 97.4
Monarchs 96.9
Sky 95.8
Shock 95.6

RPI Strength of Schedule

Liberty 0.538
Monarchs 0.538
Dream 0.527
Sun 0.524
Storm 0.510
Sky 0.503
Mystics 0.503
Sparks 0.503
Lynx 0.501
Silver Stars 0.493
Shock 0.488
Mercury 0.486
Fever 0.458

Pythagorean Projections

Fever 0.755
Sun 0.722
Storm 0.626
Lynx 0.612
Mercury 0.579
Mystics 0.530
Sparks 0.529
Liberty 0.519
Dream 0.445
Silver Stars 0.416
Sky 0.286
Shock 0.283
Monarchs 0.230

Average Margin of Victory

Fever 4.889
Sun 4.000
Storm 2.300
Lynx 2.273
Mercury 1.727
Mystics 0.556
Sparks 0.500
Liberty 0.333
Dream -1.091
Silver Stars -1.500
Shock -4.125
Sky -4.300
Monarchs -5.500


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 07/06/09 6:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Mercury and Sparks switch places in the rankings.

Ratings after 7/5/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 104.0
Sun 103.5
Fever 102.1
Mystics 101.7
Lynx 101.6
Mercury 101.5
Liberty 101.1
Sparks 99.5
Dream 99.1
Silver Stars 97.7
Monarchs 96.9
Sky 95.8
Shock 95.4

RPI Strength of Schedule

Liberty 0.543
Dream 0.542
Monarchs 0.537
Sparks 0.514
Storm 0.512
Lynx 0.504
Sky 0.504
Silver Stars 0.503
Sun 0.500
Mystics 0.499
Shock 0.491
Mercury 0.478
Fever 0.453

Pythagorean Projections

Fever 0.750
Sun 0.709
Mercury 0.627
Storm 0.626
Lynx 0.612
Mystics 0.530
Liberty 0.519
Dream 0.433
Sparks 0.431
Silver Stars 0.416
Shock 0.294
Sky 0.286
Monarchs 0.230

Average Margin of Victory

Fever 4.800
Sun 3.889
Mercury 2.833
Storm 2.300
Lynx 2.273
Mystics 0.556
Liberty 0.333
Sparks -1.222
Dream -1.333
Silver Stars -1.500
Shock -4.000
Sky -4.300
Monarchs -5.500


WNBAfan23



Joined: 14 May 2007
Posts: 280



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PostPosted: 07/06/09 8:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thanks again as always


abontorab9



Joined: 19 Jun 2008
Posts: 6207
Location: Connecticut


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PostPosted: 07/06/09 8:17 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I know the Sun beat a bad team (record-wise), but why is their pythagorean projection less after the win than before? (.722 vs .709)


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 07/06/09 8:39 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Pythagorean Projection projects what the winning percentage of a team will be based on its total points scored (a) and points against (b).

The formula usually used is:

(a^(16.5))/(a^(16.5) + (b^(16.5)).

For Connecticut, the value before the game was (570)^16.5/((570)^16.5 + (538)^16.5), which equals 0.721785.

After the Detroit game, the numbers were (665)^16.5/((665)^16.5 + (630)^16.5), which equals 0.709325.

So currently, the projection based entirely on points scored and points allowed is that the Sun will win 70.9 percent of the games they play this year.

Why did the numbers go down after the win? First, the win was a close win, 95-92. In effect, we're adding the same number - "k" - to the value of a and b in the equation above. The equation becomes

((a+k)^16.5)/((a+k)^16.5 + (b+k)^16.5)

If the values of k were to dominate, the above would converge to approximately k^16.5/(2*k^16.5), or 0.500. As a rule, adding equal amounts to points scored and points allowed forces the result closer to 1/2 than it was before.

Second, this makes sense in a practical way. Assume the difference between a team's points scored and points allowed is 45. Early in the season, there won't be very many points scored and points allowed, and the difference of 45 will have a great effect on the final results - this reflects that with so much of the season left to play, there could still be great variance between the current total and the ultimate total.

As the season progresses though, and more games are played, there will be a large number of both points scored and points allowed, and the 45 point difference will make less of an impact - it is much more likely that the team's true record is something close to .500.

--Pet


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 2001
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 07/08/09 6:50 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Rankings after 7/7/2009

Hollinger Rankings

Storm 104.6
Sun 102.7
Fever 102.4
Mercury 101.9
Mystics 101.8
Liberty 101.0
Lynx 100.8
Sparks 100.0
Dream 98.9
Monarchs 98.3
Silver Stars 97.0
Shock 95.4
Sky 95.4

RPI Strength of Schedule

Monarchs 0.542
Liberty 0.538
Sparks 0.530
Dream 0.521
Storm 0.520
Lynx 0.515
Silver Stars 0.507
Mystics 0.504
Shock 0.493
Mercury 0.491
Sky 0.490
Sun 0.490
Fever 0.463

Pythagorean Projections

Fever 0.750
Storm 0.678
Sun 0.666
Mercury 0.627
Lynx 0.609
Liberty 0.519
Mystics 0.516
Dream 0.457
Sparks 0.431
Silver Stars 0.346
Shock 0.294
Monarchs 0.288
Sky 0.264

Average Margin of Victory

Fever 4.800
Storm 3.273
Sun 3.000
Mercury 2.833
Lynx 2.250
Liberty 0.333
Mystics 0.300
Dream -0.846
Sparks -1.222
Silver Stars -2.778
Shock -4.000
Monarchs -4.091
Sky -4.818


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