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Vulnerable Republican senate seats
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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 01/07/21 9:17 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CamrnCrz1974 wrote:

And Arizona and Georgia, two states that were once considered solidly Republican, both went for Joe Biden and both now have two Democratic Senators.


Once upon a time I guess southern states went from Democrat to Republican. But at this point it looks like all the states will eventually go Democratic. Texas is on the brink. We have infinite immigration and the immigrants are primarily Democrats. At least to this point.

There has been a little change in party affiliation this election that people are talking about, including pollster Frank Luntz who I just saw mention it on CNBC. It may be only a "Trump phenomena", but the Democrats picked up rich people (also, white men was the only group Trump did worse with in 2020) and Republicans picked up blue collar folks. I think the latter may be because of Trump's blue collar persona and the fact that he paid lip service to bringing manufactuing jobs back. But we will likely now return to all of DC condoning job export and massive trade deficits. And of course, condoning an illegal workforce went on right through the Trump era, despite any nonsense suggesting otherwise.


CamrnCrz1974



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: 01/07/21 10:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:

And Arizona and Georgia, two states that were once considered solidly Republican, both went for Joe Biden and both now have two Democratic Senators.


Once upon a time I guess southern states went from Democrat to Republican. But at this point it looks like all the states will eventually go Democratic. Texas is on the brink. We have infinite immigration and the immigrants are primarily Democrats. At least to this point.


Let's not get carried away, especially with Southern states. Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana are not going Democratic any time soon.


CamrnCrz1974



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PostPosted: 01/14/21 12:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
pilight wrote:
AP has the Republicans up six not counting NY-11 or NY-22. CA-21 and UT-4 are not looking good for the Dems either. Yeah, it's not 1994 but it's pretty bad considering the expectations.

As for the senate, I'll be surprised if the GOP doesn't win both the run-offs. I'd rate Warnock's chances as slim and Ossoff's as none.


And yet, both Warnock and Ossoff won, solidifying the 50-50 tie, with VP-elect Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker.

Democrats have a net gain of 3 Senate seats from the 2020 election.

I still disagree with your assessment that this was "pretty bad". Was it disappointing? Yes. Pretty bad? No.

The FiveThirtyEight model ran 40,000 simulations. The model showed Democrats with an 80 percent chance of holding between 48 and 55 seats, with an average of 51.5 seats. While 50 seats fell short of the model's average, it still means, with the wins in the two Senate runoffs in Georgia, Democrats effectively have control when President-elect Joe Biden's administration sworn in.

And Arizona and Georgia, two states that were once considered solidly Republican, both went for Joe Biden and both now have two Democratic Senators.


Another way to look at it is this:
— For the new term, Republicans narrowly lost control of the U.S. Senate, which it held 54-46 prior to the 2016 election.

— The GOP also narrowly lost control of the U.S. House, which it dominated by 247-188 heading into 2016. This had a complicated trajectory, however: Republicans lost a few House seats in 2016 and a ton of seats in 2018 before regaining some ground in 2020.


pilight



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PostPosted: 03/31/21 7:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
pilight wrote:
AP has the Republicans up six not counting NY-11 or NY-22. CA-21 and UT-4 are not looking good for the Dems either. Yeah, it's not 1994 but it's pretty bad considering the expectations.


It's now GOP +11 (counting IA-2) with NY-22 still pending (the Republican is ahead by 12 votes, recounts coming).


With Rita Hart finally acknowledging defeat in IA-2, the final count was GOP +13



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