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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/03/21 12:36 am    ::: Building a Bracket Reply Reply with quote

This year is much harder to predict because of the uneven schedules, the lack of non-conference games and instituting the NET. The term "Quadrant 1" win has replaced wins over the top 25 and top 50. (Quadrant 1 is similar to the top 50, but it is adjusted for home court advantage so that it includes games against the top 30 at home, the top 50 at a neutral site and the top 75 away.)

As always most teams are clearly in or out but the final few slots are up for grabs based on how you look at the data. This year I have 35 teams that are in and another 20 slots for conference winners, leaving 9 for the bubble,

IN-35

ACC (5) North Carolina St, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
ASUN (1) Florida Gulf Coast
American (1) South Florida
Big 12 (5) Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Texas
Big East (2) Connecticut, Marquette
Big 10 (6) Maryland, Indiana, Michigan, Rutgers, Northwestern, Iowa
MVC (1) Missouri St. (1)
Pac 12 (5) Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon St
SEC (7) Texas A&M, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama
Summit (1) South Dakota St
West Coast (1) Gonzaga

BUBBLE- 23

ACC (5) Notre Dame, Florida St, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Miami
American (2) Central Florida, Houston
Big 12 (1) Oklahoma
Big East (3) DePaul, Seton Hall, Villanova
Big 10 (2) Michigan St, Nebraska
Conference USA (1*) Rice
MVC (1) Drake
Pac 12 (3) Washington St, Colorado, USC
SEC (2) Mississippi St, LSU
Southland (1*) Stephen F Austin
Summit (1) South Dakota
West Coast (1) BYU

BOLD - in for now

1 BID CONFERENCES - 20

America East
Atlantic 10
Big Sky
Big South
Big West
Colonial
Conference USA*
Horizon
Metro Atlantic
Mid American
MEAC
Mountain West
Northeast
Ohio Valley
Patriot
Southern
Southland*
SWAC
Sun Belt
WAC

* Teams from 1 bid conferences with an outside chance of getting in if they lose their conference tournament

Tomorrow I will evaluate the bubble teams and seed the teams.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/04/21 1:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Bubble Teams

IN

Florida St Florida St is in despite their 1 point loss to Syracuse
Washington St A win over Utah is what they needed and what they got.

IN FOR NOW

North Carolina The Tar Heels' loss to Wake Forest means there will be some concern come Selection Monday, but I still think they will make it.

DePaul - Still need a win over Villanova to have a shot and a win over UConn to be safe.

Michigan St - I said before that they would likely play Nebraska in the Big 10 tourney because I neglected to consider Ohio St not being in the tourney. They need to beat Wisconsin tomorrow and their first round Big 10 game to have a chance and a win in the quarters to be in.

South Dakota The Coyotes lost 80-73 to Oklahoma in December. That game might keep them out of the NCAA Tourney unless they win the Summit. Losing in the finals to South Dakota St may keep them alive for an at-large bid.

Central Florida - The Knights win over South Florida helps considerably. Now a loss to USF in the AAC finals should be enough to get them in and even a loss to Houston in the semis might be enough.

Notre Dame Out after their loss to Clemson

Colorado Out after their loss to Washington

Oklahoma - The Sooners loss to TCU complicates their path. They now need to beat Kansas St Sunday and win their first round Big 12 game to merit consideration.

Wake Forest Wake is truly "on the bubble" now, their fate to be decided by others. IN FOR NOW

Nebraska Nebraska needs to beat Iowa tomorrow and win 2 games in the Big 10 tourney.

Mississippi St Even if Charlie Creme is sticking with them I believe they are out.

BYU BYU could have been helped by an LSU win over Texas A&M. A WCC finals loss leaves them with a chance but they probably need to win it. BARELY IN FOR NOW

Houston A win over UCF in the AAC semis is a must for consideration as an at-large selection

Seton Hall Two chances for the NCAA tourney. 1) Win the Big East - UConn probably won't let that happen. 2) Beat Marquette in the Semis and hope.

Drake It looks like they need to win the Missouri Valley.

Stephen F Austin - The Lumberjacks are 18 in the NET, but without a top 100 win I think they need a conference title.

Rice The Owls are in the same situation as SF Austin. Conference USA has gotten at-large bids before. Rice lost by only 4 to Texas A&M. But a loss to Marshall will likely be enough to leave them out.

LSU OUT
Miami OUT
Villanova Need to beat Connecticut
USC (78) OUT




Last edited by calbearman76 on 03/06/21 12:07 am; edited 1 time in total
Queenie



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: 03/04/21 8:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I suspect that if the committee leapfrogged Seton Hall to take DePaul as the third and last from the Big East, said committee would be receiving visits from an intercontinental ballistic Bozzella. And he's really not supposed to work himself up like that. I'd like to beat Marquette just to be sure (sorry, Marquette Fan!) but maybe we can use the UConn mystique that always seemed to give the AAC an extra at-large in our favor now that they're back again.



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Marquette Fan



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PostPosted: 03/04/21 9:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Queenie wrote:
I suspect that if the committee leapfrogged Seton Hall to take DePaul as the third and last from the Big East, said committee would be receiving visits from an intercontinental ballistic Bozzella. And he's really not supposed to work himself up like that. I'd like to beat Marquette just to be sure (sorry, Marquette Fan!) but maybe we can use the UConn mystique that always seemed to give the AAC an extra at-large in our favor now that they're back again.


We need to beat Seton Hall for payback for that game there where MU looked awful. And then the rematch in Milwaukee was canceled and never rescheduled. But yeah I can see why you'd want to win that one and it's not out of the question it happens. Then again I don't take anything for granted and right now just want to make sure MU wins their first BET game.


PickledGinger



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PostPosted: 03/04/21 9:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How long has it been since the last time DePaul didn't make the tourney?



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pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 03/04/21 11:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PickledGinger wrote:
How long has it been since the last time DePaul didn't make the tourney?


Last time was 2002



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/05/21 12:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Queenie wrote:
I suspect that if the committee leapfrogged Seton Hall to take DePaul as the third and last from the Big East, said committee would be receiving visits from an intercontinental ballistic Bozzella. And he's really not supposed to work himself up like that. I'd like to beat Marquette just to be sure (sorry, Marquette Fan!) but maybe we can use the UConn mystique that always seemed to give the AAC an extra at-large in our favor now that they're back again.


At this point I see Seton Hall and DePaul as nearly equal. Even though Seton Hall beat out DePaul in the Big East DePaul won the head-to head matchup and beat Kentucky non-conference. That is why I have the Blue Demons in for now. Seton Hall should get in with a win over Marquette. The Big East could get 2,3 or 4 teams right now.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/05/21 1:07 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

BUBBLE UPDATE

Today's games shook up the bubble as Oklahoma and Notre Dame lost games they should have won, Wake Forest beat North Carolina in the ACC 8-9 matchup and Central Florida moved close to a bid with a win over South Florida. Oklahoma now needs to beat Kansas St and Oklahoma St to have a chance to get in. Notre Dame will have to sweat it out. Wake Forest and North Carolina are now close. I still have North Carolina in but they are close. Wake Forest can secure a bid with a win over NC St. UCF should get in if they get to the AAC finals and may get in if they lose to Houston in the semis. Mississippi St's loss to LSU should end their hopes. They are 5-8 in the SEC with only 1 good win over Georgia and they had no good wins out of conference. But somehow Creme still has them in. There are still a lot of moving pieces.


purduefanatic



Joined: 10 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: 03/05/21 9:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Mississippi St's loss to LSU should end their hopes. They are 5-8 in the SEC with only 1 good win over Georgia and they had no good wins out of conference. But somehow Creme still has them in. There are still a lot of moving pieces.


Where did Miss State start the year in the polls? Weren't they like #6 or something? Has there ever been a team that the pollsters were so wrong about in the past? I mean, that is a massive swing and miss. And man, lose a coach and watch the program fall fast.


pilight



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PostPosted: 03/05/21 10:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

purduefanatic wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Mississippi St's loss to LSU should end their hopes. They are 5-8 in the SEC with only 1 good win over Georgia and they had no good wins out of conference. But somehow Creme still has them in. There are still a lot of moving pieces.


Where did Miss State start the year in the polls? Weren't they like #6 or something? Has there ever been a team that the pollsters were so wrong about in the past? I mean, that is a massive swing and miss. And man, lose a coach and watch the program fall fast.


They were #6 in the preseason poll



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myrtle



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PostPosted: 03/05/21 1:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think Colorado, USC, Mississippi St, and LSU have all bubbled themselves out barring help from above.


Phil



Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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PostPosted: 03/05/21 1:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
BUBBLE UPDATE

Wake Forest can secure a bid with a win over NC St.


I'm guessing you meant Louisville. But they played close till van Lith blew them off the court.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/05/21 8:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Phil wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
BUBBLE UPDATE

Wake Forest can secure a bid with a win over NC St.


I'm guessing you meant Louisville. But they played close till van Lith blew them off the court.


Yes. I had thought NC St was the 1 seed. Wake is now a true bubble team.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/06/21 2:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Major Upset as Omaha beats South Dakota St in the first round of the Summit League, The conference will get 2 bids now and South Dakota will have to win the tournament to get in.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 03/06/21 3:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Major Upset as Omaha beats South Dakota St in the first round of the Summit League, The conference will get 2 bids now and South Dakota will have to win the tournament to get in.


so SDSU's win over ISU is enough to make them a 'for sure'. I think they've also had some season ending injuries, but not sure about that.
edit: Yeah, they lost their best player. So it's a totally different team than the one that won those OOC games.


SDHoops



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PostPosted: 03/06/21 4:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Major Upset as Omaha beats South Dakota St in the first round of the Summit League, The conference will get 2 bids now and South Dakota will have to win the tournament to get in.


so SDSU's win over ISU is enough to make them a 'for sure'. I think they've also had some season ending injuries, but not sure about that.
edit: Yeah, they lost their best player. So it's a totally different team than the one that won those OOC games.

I hope they still get serious consideration.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/06/21 4:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Major Upset as Omaha beats South Dakota St in the first round of the Summit League, The conference will get 2 bids now and South Dakota will have to win the tournament to get in.


so SDSU's win over ISU is enough to make them a 'for sure'. I think they've also had some season ending injuries, but not sure about that.
edit: Yeah, they lost their best player. So it's a totally different team than the one that won those OOC games.


It isn't just Iowa St. SDSU also beat Missouri St and Gonzaga. I agree that the team isn't the same without Selland but their season merits inclusion. But they sure did look bad today.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 03/06/21 5:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

and what about Depaul...losing today to 'Nova?


myrtle



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PostPosted: 03/06/21 5:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
myrtle wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Major Upset as Omaha beats South Dakota St in the first round of the Summit League, The conference will get 2 bids now and South Dakota will have to win the tournament to get in.


so SDSU's win over ISU is enough to make them a 'for sure'. I think they've also had some season ending injuries, but not sure about that.
edit: Yeah, they lost their best player. So it's a totally different team than the one that won those OOC games.


It isn't just Iowa St. SDSU also beat Missouri St and Gonzaga. I agree that the team isn't the same without Selland but their season merits inclusion. But they sure did look bad today.


I thought the committee supposedly takes into consideration major injuries? But yeah, I guess the team should get to at least make the trip.


Marquette Fan



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PostPosted: 03/06/21 6:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
and what about Depaul...losing today to 'Nova?


I feel like they've played their way out of the NCAA Tournament at this point.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/06/21 7:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Marquette Fan wrote:
myrtle wrote:
and what about Depaul...losing today to 'Nova?


I feel like they've played their way out of the NCAA Tournament at this point.


I agree. They needed a win today to stay in consideration.


PickledGinger



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PostPosted: 03/06/21 8:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

That would break an 18 year streak for Doug Bruno. I believe that is the third longest current streak behind Vanderveer and Auriemma (tied at 31). Up next is Kim Mulkey at 16 and Gary Blair at 14.



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Phil



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PostPosted: 03/07/21 8:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Don't forget ND at 24 and, of course, Tennessee at 38


mzonefan



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PostPosted: 03/07/21 9:28 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Marquette Fan wrote:
myrtle wrote:
and what about Depaul...losing today to 'Nova?


I feel like they've played their way out of the NCAA Tournament at this point.


I agree. They needed a win today to stay in consideration.


Wow. They’re #71 in the NET after that.


mzonefan



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PostPosted: 03/07/21 9:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Phil wrote:
Don't forget ND at 24 and, of course, Tennessee at 38


Pickled was listing coaching records, not program records.


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