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Randy
Joined: 08 Oct 2011
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 Posted: 02/23/21 11:32 am ::: |
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The interesting this about the mock drafts is that the "professionals" usually do no better than the amateur basement dwellers in predicting what teams will do. In the end, the GM's often get the picks wrongs anyway.
If this is a really weak draft like 2017 it seems reasonable to expect some major blunders (like Coates and Akhator in the lottery ahead of Gray, Sykes. B. Jones and others.) Even in good drafts (2019) teams miss the mark like J. Young at 1 and KLS at 4.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 02/23/21 12:56 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| ClayK wrote: |
| Rock Hard wrote: |
| Some people have vision and some people don't. How many players in the WNBA that went to small schools or Mid- Major schools that have performed very well in the league that very few people had a vision of excellence for those players. |
This is a legit question that may be right up pilight's alley -- what percentage of WNBA players come from P5 schools? And what percentage of WNBA starters come from P5 schools? |
Last season 143 players played in the league. Five didn't attend a US university. 104 finished at a P5 school. 16 went to UConn, which isn't a P5 school but also isn't what you're talking about. That leaves 18 who went to other universities.
Those 18 started 142 games, which represents 10.8% of all WNBA starts last season. Four (Alysha Clark, Candice Dupree, Allie Quigley, Courtney Vandersloot) started every game for their team. Three others (Cheyenne Parker, Kayla Thornton, Courtney Williams) started more than half of their team's games.
NOTE: There are a few gray areas. Louisville is a P5 team now but wasn't when Angel McCoughtry was there, for example. I generally considered the schools by their current status rather than try to sort through all that. |
Thanks pilight ... amazing work, as always.
Candice Dupree: Temple
Alysha Clark, Cheyenne Parker: Middle Tennessee
Allie Quigley: DePaul
Kayla Thornton: UTEP
Courtney Williams: South Florida
CVS: Gonzaga
So it's fair to say that if you're looking draft a starter, check the big schools. (And I would be tempted to count Gonzaga as an honorary P5 ...)
One other note: The youngest of that group is Williams at 26; four are over 30.
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WNBA 09
Joined: 26 Jun 2009
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| Posted: 02/23/21 1:10 pm ::: |
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| What about Natasha Cloud ? Should be count on that list as well ? Or Does the Maryland /St. Joes transfer count as P5 ?
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 02/23/21 1:31 pm ::: |
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| WNBA 09 wrote: |
| What about Natasha Cloud ? Should be count on that list as well ? Or Does the Maryland /St. Joes transfer count as P5 ? |
She didn't play last season
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CamrnCrz1974
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Rock Hard
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| Posted: 02/23/21 4:30 pm ::: |
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| Vision is not seeing what is in front of you. Vision is seeing what can be.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 02/23/21 7:19 pm ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
| One other note: The youngest of that group is Williams at 26; four are over 30. |
Cheyenne Parker is also under 30
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myrtle
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WNBA 09
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root_thing
Joined: 28 Apr 2007
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| Posted: 02/24/21 10:01 am ::: |
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| Any time you have to justify a pick by saying ignore what the player is doing now but look at what she did two years ago, then you've already contorted yourself like a pretzel. It's a think-too-much, trying-too-hard-to-be-different idea. It also ignores comments made by Kolb recently that New York is drafting for the long-term rather than for immediate help. That suggests a foreign deferral player or maybe an American with raw talent that needs more development time -- maybe to switch positions. Before her recent shooting slump, Westbrook looked like the Steady Eddie type with a high floor/low ceiling. She doesn't fit the description of someone you would draft for future potential.
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DFWub2018
Joined: 24 Aug 2018
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| Posted: 02/24/21 3:03 pm ::: |
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| root_thing wrote: |
| Any time you have to justify a pick by saying ignore what the player is doing now but look at what she did two years ago, then you've already contorted yourself like a pretzel. It's a think-too-much, trying-too-hard-to-be-different idea. It also ignores comments made by Kolb recently that New York is drafting for the long-term rather than for immediate help. That suggests a foreign deferral player or maybe an American with raw talent that needs more development time -- maybe to switch positions. Before her recent shooting slump, Westbrook looked like the Steady Eddie type with a high floor/low ceiling. She doesn't fit the description of someone you would draft for future potential. |
"Contorted yourself like a pretzel." You be killing me with those one liners!!!
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myrtle
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| Posted: 02/24/21 5:11 pm ::: |
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| maybe I just haven't seen her on a good day, but another less than stellar Guirantes day. She is really cute though, so that should count for something. She shot really poorly - 3-15,1-4,4-4 - 11 pts, 9 rebs and 8 assists...but also 6 TOs. She looks solid all around but doesn't look like she can create for herself at all. MSU mostly played her one on one and sometimes doubled her when she got close to the basket. Maybe late first round IMO...but I've only watched her thru two games, so like I said, maybe that was her worst two games.
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ClayK
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| Posted: 02/24/21 5:24 pm ::: |
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| myrtle wrote: |
| maybe I just haven't seen her on a good day, but another less than stellar Guirantes day. She is really cute though, so that should count for something. She shot really poorly - 3-15,1-4,4-4 - 11 pts, 9 rebs and 8 assists...but also 6 TOs. She looks solid all around but doesn't look like she can create for herself at all. MSU mostly played her one on one and sometimes doubled her when she got close to the basket. Maybe late first round IMO...but I've only watched her thru two games, so like I said, maybe that was her worst two games. |
This one I didn't watch ... she had shot OK in the previous games.
My question is her athleticism ... a WNBA player should be noticeably quicker than her Big 10 opponents. How did she look from that angle?
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myrtle
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| Posted: 02/24/21 7:03 pm ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
| myrtle wrote: |
| maybe I just haven't seen her on a good day, but another less than stellar Guirantes day. She is really cute though, so that should count for something. She shot really poorly - 3-15,1-4,4-4 - 11 pts, 9 rebs and 8 assists...but also 6 TOs. She looks solid all around but doesn't look like she can create for herself at all. MSU mostly played her one on one and sometimes doubled her when she got close to the basket. Maybe late first round IMO...but I've only watched her thru two games, so like I said, maybe that was her worst two games. |
This one I didn't watch ... she had shot OK in the previous games.
My question is her athleticism ... a WNBA player should be noticeably quicker than her Big 10 opponents. How did she look from that angle? |
That's why I said it didn't look like she could create her own shot. I didn't see a great deal of speed/quickness which is why they could guard her one on one. Definitely no blowbys that I saw. She's savvy and tends to be in the right place at the right time, and made some quite nice passes. I think the other game I saw was v. Northwestern and she didn't shoot well in that one either, though her FTs are really good. I would like to see one of the games where she shoots well to see how she gets those shots.
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mavcarter
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Joined: 02 Sep 2010
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| Posted: 02/24/21 8:33 pm ::: |
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| myrtle wrote: |
| ClayK wrote: |
| myrtle wrote: |
| maybe I just haven't seen her on a good day, but another less than stellar Guirantes day. She is really cute though, so that should count for something. She shot really poorly - 3-15,1-4,4-4 - 11 pts, 9 rebs and 8 assists...but also 6 TOs. She looks solid all around but doesn't look like she can create for herself at all. MSU mostly played her one on one and sometimes doubled her when she got close to the basket. Maybe late first round IMO...but I've only watched her thru two games, so like I said, maybe that was her worst two games. |
This one I didn't watch ... she had shot OK in the previous games.
My question is her athleticism ... a WNBA player should be noticeably quicker than her Big 10 opponents. How did she look from that angle? |
That's why I said it didn't look like she could create her own shot. I didn't see a great deal of speed/quickness which is why they could guard her one on one. Definitely no blowbys that I saw. She's savvy and tends to be in the right place at the right time, and made some quite nice passes. I think the other game I saw was v. Northwestern and she didn't shoot well in that one either, though her FTs are really good. I would like to see one of the games where she shoots well to see how she gets those shots. |
Should’ve caught the last three games before Michigan State. Shot 61%, 57%, & 65% from the field.  _________________
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| Or maybe said poster should quit being a nuisance when people don’t agree? |
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 02/24/21 9:29 pm ::: |
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| mavcarter wrote: |
| myrtle wrote: |
| ClayK wrote: |
| myrtle wrote: |
| maybe I just haven't seen her on a good day, but another less than stellar Guirantes day. She is really cute though, so that should count for something. She shot really poorly - 3-15,1-4,4-4 - 11 pts, 9 rebs and 8 assists...but also 6 TOs. She looks solid all around but doesn't look like she can create for herself at all. MSU mostly played her one on one and sometimes doubled her when she got close to the basket. Maybe late first round IMO...but I've only watched her thru two games, so like I said, maybe that was her worst two games. |
This one I didn't watch ... she had shot OK in the previous games.
My question is her athleticism ... a WNBA player should be noticeably quicker than her Big 10 opponents. How did she look from that angle? |
That's why I said it didn't look like she could create her own shot. I didn't see a great deal of speed/quickness which is why they could guard her one on one. Definitely no blowbys that I saw. She's savvy and tends to be in the right place at the right time, and made some quite nice passes. I think the other game I saw was v. Northwestern and she didn't shoot well in that one either, though her FTs are really good. I would like to see one of the games where she shoots well to see how she gets those shots. |
Should’ve caught the last three games before Michigan State. Shot 61%, 57%, & 65% from the field. |
The B1G hides behind their firewall so it's not easy to catch games. Even though she got those numbers, as I said, I'd like to see HOW she got them and how she was guarded...or not guarded. MSU had a switching man to man so she was guarded by a variety of players and she never really got around any of them. MSU's defense didn't strike me as particularly great but it was man to man. Maybe those other games, they played zone? Plus I notice those games were v. the bottom teams in the league.
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okstateguy
Joined: 18 Feb 2021
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| Posted: 02/24/21 9:47 pm ::: |
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Mack vs Baylor
18 points, 18 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block, 3 TO's. 9-19 from the floor, 0-1 from the stripe.
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Stormeo
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| Posted: 02/24/21 10:09 pm ::: |
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| okstateguy wrote: |
Mack vs Baylor
18 points, 18 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block, 3 TO's. 9-19 from the floor, 0-1 from the stripe. |
Better than I would've expected, considering she had essentially no help from her teammates in this game.
On the Baylor side, I see that Carrington finished with a pts-reb double-double off the bench, and Richards finished with 11 assists to just one turnover. Man, if only they could be one super prospect instead of the two decent ones that they are. Of course, that super prospect still wouldn't have much of a reliable 3PT shot. 
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J-Spoon
Joined: 31 Jan 2009
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| Posted: 02/24/21 11:41 pm ::: |
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I am always a little confused by the knock on Carrington
She has a W build and seems to have game to me but she is continually in low 2nd/3rd round territory in most drafts.
I could see her either going higher or going lower but making a team and having more impact than some of the guards who ATM are considered a better pick
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J-Spoon
Joined: 31 Jan 2009
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| Posted: 02/24/21 11:48 pm ::: |
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here is a fun question
lets say you are Dallas and you decide to draft two posts with picks 1, 2 and 5
all three of the top teir post are available and willing to play this season
which two do you pick between Collier, Mack and Kuier?
extra credit question who is the non post you would like with the other pick?
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okstateguy
Joined: 18 Feb 2021
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| Posted: 02/24/21 11:58 pm ::: |
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| Stormeo wrote: |
| okstateguy wrote: |
Mack vs Baylor
18 points, 18 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block, 3 TO's. 9-19 from the floor, 0-1 from the stripe. |
Better than I would've expected, considering she had essentially no help from her teammates in this game.
On the Baylor side, I see that Carrington finished with a pts-reb double-double off the bench, and Richards finished with 11 assists to just one turnover. Man, if only they could be one super prospect instead of the two decent ones that they are. Of course, that super prospect still wouldn't have much of a reliable 3PT shot. |
I missed the 1st half, but it appears she struggled mightily. She got in a groove late in the 3rd through the 4th. Left her in against the end of Baylor's rotation where she grabbed like 4 or 5 boards. Baylor didn't really double her much, but Baylor is sound enough to take advantage of her inability to go strong to the left with her left hand. Carrington got to post up alot on offense, so she played closer to the rim a good chunk of the game she was in.
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okstateguy
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| Posted: 02/25/21 12:07 am ::: |
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| J-Spoon wrote: |
here is a fun question
lets say you are Dallas and you decide to draft two posts with picks 1, 2 and 5
all three of the top teir post are available and willing to play this season
which two do you pick between Collier, Mack and Kuier?
extra credit question who is the non post you would like with the other pick? |
I'd go with Kuier and Collier, strictly for the stretch they offer on offense. I've got to watch every live streamed OK State game the past 2 years, and I still don't think Mack is WNBA ready skill wise. Has a pretty underdeveloped left hand. Shot has slow release and pretty streaky. No clear strong skill that translates to the W outside of rebounding and blocks. With her body type, I don't see either translating very strongly to the WNBA right now.
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mavcarter
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| Posted: 02/25/21 12:32 am ::: |
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| okstateguy wrote: |
| and I still don't think Mack is WNBA ready skill wise. Has a pretty underdeveloped left hand. Shot has slow release and pretty streaky. No clear strong skill that translates to the W outside of rebounding and blocks. With her body type, I don't see either translating very strongly to the WNBA right now. |
Agreed.
Mack’s ceiling gives me Jessica Breland for some reason.._________________
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| Or maybe said poster should quit being a nuisance when people don’t agree? |
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bbsamjj
Joined: 27 Jul 2005
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| Posted: 02/25/21 12:38 am ::: |
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On the topic of Arella, you can see her game by game stats here: https://scarletknights.com/sports/womens-basketball/roster/arella-guirantes/8465
She's basically had 5 terrible shooting games (under 33%FG), 7 excellent shooting games (50% from FG or better), and two games in between. There's not really a consistent snapshot on which teams she does better against (except Nebraska, where she shot horribly in both games).
Teams have known she's RU's top scorer for two seasons now, so she never is left alone for easy buckets (Except on fast breaks). Last season she did a lot more posting up/working baseline for points. But she can score at all three levels--she's become a much better 3-pt shooter (39% for the season), she's always had a terrific midrange game, and she can drive and score with contact. Agree she's not mind blowing athletic, but she's crafty, tough and has good instincts. And she's a two-way player, as she's in the top 5 in B10 in both steals and blocks per game (as well as scoring and assists).
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Stormeo
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| Posted: 02/25/21 2:04 am ::: |
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| J-Spoon wrote: |
lets say you are Dallas and you decide to draft two posts with picks 1, 2 and 5
all three of the top tier posts are available and willing to play this season
which two do you pick between Collier, Mack and Kuier?
extra credit question who is the non post you would like with the other pick? |
Mack and Kuier for Picks 1 & 2.
Evans if she's still there for Pick 5. If not, McDonald.
As a bonus, Pick 7 can be Rupert, another deferral. If the Wings really do keep all these picks and don't make any more roster changes, then they realistically can't be taking on more than two draft picks. The only player they can cut (and surprisingly still haven't) is Gustafson; Literally everyone else either has a guaranteed contract or is part of that younger core unit. (We'll see if Ndour chooses to skip out on the season, but I'm betting that lofty paycheck of hers gets her to show up at some point & count against the cap.) But then, most of us agree that there are more moves to come from the Wings anyway. If this exercise doesn't end up becoming moot, then I feel like that's a bad sign...
| J-Spoon wrote: |
I am always a little confused by the knock on Carrington
She has a W build and seems to have game to me but she is continually in low 2nd/3rd round territory in most drafts.
I could see her either going higher or going lower but making a team and having more impact than some of the guards who ATM are considered a better pick |
She's a true SG who has always been a shaky 3PT shooter, so that's her biggest knock. Still a decent scorer overall, has good size (5'11), and is good on defense. But she doesn't have that one elite skill that'll get her drafted into the 1st round imo. I also don't know how teams would view the fact that she comes off the bench for Baylor (which I too have never really understood, but it seems to work for both her & the team, I guess).
| mavcarter wrote: |
| Mack’s ceiling gives me Jessica Breland for some reason. |
That's really not a bad ceiling at all imo. Breland was drafted in the 2nd round back in 2011, had cancer, sat out last season (after a lackluster prior season), and still got signed to a six-figure contract for this year; Even if she gets cut this year, she's had a good run. In this kind of a Draft, I'd take that kind of ceiling/comparison out of a 1st-round prospect – especially if Mack falls outside the lottery picks. If she can just get her defense and rebounding to translate, I'd think her coach would be patient with her offense. If nothing else, she can start out with getting putbacks around the rim & go from there.
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