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When will the pandemic end?

 
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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 01/09/21 10:18 pm    ::: When will the pandemic end? Reply Reply with quote

12/10/2020 - no end date given. Summer will "look more normal".
How the Pandemic Will End

Quote:
Not with a bang, but with a whimper.

This is how the pandemic will end, too. It will end slowly. In drips.

Part of this is because vaccination will not be immediate.


1/5/201 - no date given, but world not fully vaccinated in 2021.
What Will It Take To End The COVID-19 Pandemic?

Quote:
Health experts agree that, to end the pandemic, the world needs to immunize a large percentage of Earth's population. And that population needs to be distributed evenly, not clustered in wealthy countries.

"In many pockets around the world, it's becoming increasingly likely that people will not get access to the COVID-19 vaccine in 2021."


09/25/2020
Here’s How the Pandemic Finally Ends

Quote:
A vaccine by early 2021, a steady decline in cases by next fall and back to normal in a few years—11 top experts look into the future.

By November 2021, most Americans have received two doses of a vaccine that, while not gloriously effective, fights the disease in more cases than not.

Eventually, as more and more Americans develop immunity through exposure and vaccination, and as treatments become more effective, Covid-19 recedes into the swarm of ordinary illnesses Americans get every winter.


FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
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PostPosted: 01/10/21 12:37 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan posted this article in the other thread. The pandemic is never going to end for some patients.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/most-covid-19-survivors-still-23288783

I bet it will take 3 years for the world to receive their initial vaccines, and this is almost certainly going to require an annual shot, like the flu does now.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 01/10/21 5:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I know this is probably documented somewhere, but....does anyone here know medical/clinical details on how the 1918 pandemic 'ended'? I don't even remember if scientists ever did a DNA analysis of it -- is/was it a coronavirus? It seems to have been even more virulent than Covid.

Has there ever been a clear delineation of how that plague played out and 'ended'?



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 01/10/21 7:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
I know this is probably documented somewhere, but....does anyone here know medical/clinical details on how the 1918 pandemic 'ended'? I don't even remember if scientists ever did a DNA analysis of it -- is/was it a coronavirus? It seems to have been even more virulent than Covid.

Has there ever been a clear delineation of how that plague played out and 'ended'?


It was an H1N1 influenza virus, not a coronavirus. Not only was there no specific treatment for the flu, there were no antibiotics to treat secondary pneumonia, and supportive care was terrible. It swept the world in 3 major waves in 1918-19 and finally subsided in the summer of 1919, probably because of herd immunity, prior deaths of the most susceptible, and diminished transmissibility in the summer months. There were some sporadic cases the following year and then it disappeared. It infected 500M people and killed ~50M (world pop was ~1.5B at the time).

I'm not sure how to compare virulence. Spanish flu infected 1/3 of the population with an estimated death rate of 10%, but that was with essentially no treatment. It seems likely that COVID will infect 1/3 of the US population before vaccines are completed, and the death rate is only 2% but that's with vastly better treatments.

The CDC has a pretty readable article about the pandemic.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
This section describes how the virus was obtained and isolated for study. Scroll down to "Discovering a lost killer" section which is really fascinating (at least to science nerds).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 13240
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 01/11/21 12:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thank you for that, FLVFan. That was, indeed, an interesting piece. The Alaskan connection alone was interesting enough, but I always am fascinated by the way scientists determine how the smallest pieces of genetic material alter the course of a virus' reach among various species, and its severity.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 01/13/21 10:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

MASK UP Brits could wear Covid face masks FOREVER as coronavirus will ‘always be with us’, warns JVT

Quote:
JVT: "I don’t think we are ever going to take this virus away out of humankind. I think the virus is going to continue to change over time, as the disease has already shown signs of doing.


Moderna CEO: We will have to live with COVID-19 ‘forever’


Quote:
"SARS-CoV-2 is not going away," Bancel said during a panel at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, according to CNBC. "We are going to live with this virus, we think, forever."


There has been a disease eliminated through vaccination, but so far only one: smallpox.


FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 01/14/21 1:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

While I have no doubt that this virus will be with us for an indefinite period, hopefully it will be controlled much as influenza is, with an annual vaccine tailored to the strains of most concern.

And The Sun is about on the same level as the National Enquirer...not something I would use as a source for reliable information. Just saying.


tfan



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PostPosted: 01/15/21 5:33 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:

And The Sun is about on the same level as the National Enquirer...not something I would use as a source for reliable information. Just saying.


In this case they are quoting Professor Jonathan Van-Tam who they interviewed. Wikipedia says Van-Tam is "a British specialist in influenza, including its epidemiology, transmission, vaccinology, antiviral drugs and pandemic preparedness". Although, having said that, epidemiology is not a profession that I hold in high regard after this pandemic. I think I should have excluded him on that basis.


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