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Will You Be Getting the Coronavirus Vaccine?
Yes
40%
 40%  [ 6 ]
Hell to the Yeah
20%
 20%  [ 3 ]
Throw a dart and aim for my ass, yes
20%
 20%  [ 3 ]
Use a blowgun and hit me in the neck as I drive by the ER
6%
 6%  [ 1 ]
No, personal health reasons
6%
 6%  [ 1 ]
No, I don't trust/believe in it.
6%
 6%  [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 15

Author Message
jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 20629



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PostPosted: 01/12/21 9:39 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Okay. Moving right along. Shocked

The Trump administration will recommend administering the coronavirus vaccine to everyone over 65 in the country, in an attempt to accelerate lagging distribution as Covid-19 deaths have soared to their highest levels since the pandemic began.


Again with the distribution thing. Rolling Eyes



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6443
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 01/12/21 4:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Gov. announces CT residents ages 75 and older can make vaccine appointments next week

I know the older you are the more at risk, but this fatality rate seems high:

Quote:
The first people among the group will be people 75 years or older. That amounts to five percent of the state’s population, but this is the segment of the population that is seeing a 60 percent fatality rate.


This is just another example of the incompetent state of journalism today, where all most reporters do is read Twitter and Facebook. I always rely on my own research for anything technical.

As best as I can figure from somewhat fuzzy population statistics, there are about 245,000 people in CT 75 and older. Interpolating the official CT Covid death statistics from yesterday, there have been about 3,500 confirmed Covid deaths in this age group. That would be a death percentage of 1.4% for the entire state population of 75 and older folk.

If we are instead talking about death percentage of 75 and older among confirmed Covid cases in that age group, that (interpolated) would be about 3,500 confirmed deaths divided by about 17,315 confirmed cases = 20%.

Finally, if we are talking about confirmed deaths of 75 and older as a percentage of total confirmed Covid deaths in the state, that (interpolated) would be about 3,500 divided by 5,210 = 67%. This is the percentage to which the sloppy reporter was probably referring.

******************

As a school and school sports tangent, lets look at the death risk percentage of people in Connecticut under age 29, which should encompass everyone from preschool through college and most graduate students. The total confirmed deaths in the 0-9 age group is 1, in the 10-19 age group is 1, and in the 20-29 age group is 7. That's 9 deaths in a state age group population of about 1,404,000 = .0006%, which means a death risk of 0.6 people in 100,000.

This 0.6/100,000 CT Covid death count for ages 0-29 compares to the most recent CDC estimated national death counts for:

--> flu of 1.3/100,000 for ages 0-4, 0.4/100,000 for ages 5-17, and 1.8/100,000 for ages 18-49

--> motor vehicle accidents of 3/100,000 for ages 0-14 and 15/100,000 for ages 15-34

Q1: Does this CT death risk of 0.6/100,000 for ages 0-29, which is less than the death risk from flu and much less than deaths from vehicle accidents for that age group, warrant shutting down schools and school sports programs?

Q2: Is Q1 a science or political question?
FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 2237



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PostPosted: 01/12/21 5:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
tfan wrote:
Gov. announces CT residents ages 75 and older can make vaccine appointments next week

I know the older you are the more at risk, but this fatality rate seems high:

Quote:
The first people among the group will be people 75 years or older. That amounts to five percent of the state’s population, but this is the segment of the population that is seeing a 60 percent fatality rate.


This is just another example of the incompetent state of journalism today, where all most reporters do is read Twitter and Facebook. I always rely on my own research for anything technical.

As best as I can figure from somewhat fuzzy population statistics, there are about 245,000 people in CT 75 and older. Interpolating the official CT Covid death statistics from yesterday, there have been about 3,500 confirmed Covid deaths in this age group. That would be a death percentage of 1.4% for the entire state population of 75 and older folk.

If we are instead talking about death percentage of 75 and older among confirmed Covid cases in that age group, that (interpolated) would be about 3,500 confirmed deaths divided by about 17,315 confirmed cases = 20%.

Finally, if we are talking about confirmed deaths of 75 and older as a percentage of total confirmed Covid deaths in the state, that (interpolated) would be about 3,500 divided by 5,210 = 67%. This is the percentage to which the sloppy reporter was probably referring.


Death percentage isn't a recognized term and lacks specificity. When referring to a disease occurring in some population over a time period...

The case fatality rate for the disease is the number of deaths divided by the number of people with the disease. Using your numbers 3500/17315 = 20%.

The mortality rate of the disease is the number of deaths divided by the number of people in the specified group. 3500/245000 = 1.4%


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 6443
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 01/12/21 6:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
tfan wrote:
Gov. announces CT residents ages 75 and older can make vaccine appointments next week

I know the older you are the more at risk, but this fatality rate seems high:

Quote:
The first people among the group will be people 75 years or older. That amounts to five percent of the state’s population, but this is the segment of the population that is seeing a 60 percent fatality rate.


This is just another example of the incompetent state of journalism today, where all most reporters do is read Twitter and Facebook. I always rely on my own research for anything technical.

As best as I can figure from somewhat fuzzy population statistics, there are about 245,000 people in CT 75 and older. Interpolating the official CT Covid death statistics from yesterday, there have been about 3,500 confirmed Covid deaths in this age group. That would be a death percentage of 1.4% for the entire state population of 75 and older folk.

If we are instead talking about death percentage of 75 and older among confirmed Covid cases in that age group, that (interpolated) would be about 3,500 confirmed deaths divided by about 17,315 confirmed cases = 20%.

Finally, if we are talking about confirmed deaths of 75 and older as a percentage of total confirmed Covid deaths in the state, that (interpolated) would be about 3,500 divided by 5,210 = 67%. This is the percentage to which the sloppy reporter was probably referring.


Death percentage isn't a recognized term and lacks specificity. When referring to a disease occurring in some population over a time period...

The case fatality rate for the disease is the number of deaths divided by the number of people with the disease. Using your numbers 3500/17315 = 20%.

The mortality rate of the disease is the number of deaths divided by the number of people in the specified group. 3500/245000 = 1.4%


Thanks, I appreciate correct terminology. So, what's infection fatality rate (IFR)?
jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 20629



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PostPosted: 01/12/21 10:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
Okay. Moving right along. Shocked

The Trump administration will recommend administering the coronavirus vaccine to everyone over 65 in the country, in an attempt to accelerate lagging distribution as Covid-19 deaths have soared to their highest levels since the pandemic began.


Again with the distribution thing. Rolling Eyes


Now anyone with pre-existing conditions. Spread the word.

Shocked

WOW. Did that tier thingy collapse quickly. I commend the change of plans.

So to review where we are now as per local and network news reporting: The feds aren’t waiting for Biden, they are now releasing all vaccine in their stockpiles with NEW guidelines that say anyone over the age of 65 or who has A pre-existing medical condition can be vaccinated NOW. I guess it’s up to the feds to get that directive to the states and hospitals. I don’t know and haven’t heard exactly what pre-existing conditions might now be included or if the list of comorbidities has also been changed in any way.

But with stadium level vaccination administrations being brought online as we speak... this really does sound like a dramatic moment in the fight to bring us all back from the edge of the abyss.

Start making phone calls. Hold your state and local officials accountable to the new directives from the federal government and good luck.



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 20629



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PostPosted: 01/13/21 5:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

NYTimes: (excerpts of a long article)

States Told to Vaccinate Everyone 65 and Over as Deaths Surge

The Trump administration ordered states to use Covid-19 vaccines set aside for second doses to get the shots to more people more quickly.

By Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Abby Goodnough
Published Jan. 12, 2021
Updated Jan. 13, 2021, 12:06 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration, racing a surging Covid-19 death toll, instructed states on Tuesday to immediately begin vaccinating every American 65 and older, as well as tens of millions of adults with medical conditions that put them at higher risk of dying from coronavirus infection.

The federal government will release all available doses of the vaccine instead of holding about half in reserve for second doses, Alex M. Azar II, the health secretary, said, adding that states should start allowing pharmacies and community health centers, which serve largely poor populations, to administer the shots.

So far, only Texas has offered shots to both people 65 and older and all residents with at least one chronic medical condition. The C.D.C. has estimated that more than 100 million adults have conditions — such as obesity, which affects at least 40 percent of adults, and diabetes — that put them at increased risk of severe illness from Covid-19.

The two companies making vaccines that have emergency approval, Pfizer and Moderna, are both ramping up production. In an interview Tuesday with CNBC, the Pfizer chief executive, Dr. Albert Bourla, said Pfizer and its German partner, BioNTech, have increased their global production estimate this year to two billion doses from 1.3 billion.

“We have much more than they can use right now,” he said.

Despite his state’s bumpy rollout, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who prioritized people 65 and older from the start, said he believed making all older people eligible was always the right thing to do.

The initial guidelines “would have allowed a 20-year-old healthy worker to get a vaccine before a 74-year-old grandmother,” Mr. DeSantis said on Tuesday at a news conference in the sprawling retirement community called the Villages. “That does not recognize how this virus has affected elderly people.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/us/politics/vaccine-states.html?



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 2237



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PostPosted: 01/13/21 12:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

When we've spent most of the past year agonizing about the elevation of politics over science, why are we now commending that? Why are we bumping up other people when frontline healthcare workers are still waiting to get their first injections, particularly since the lack of nurses is constraining hospital capacity in places across the country? Why are we ignoring the fact that we have no solid data evaluating the effectiveness of the vaccine if the second dose is deferred, so we're just going to wing it?


pilight



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PostPosted: 01/13/21 12:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Put politicians in charge and you're gonna get political decisions...



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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 01/13/21 5:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Well, my research time and efforts have paid off for something. I got an appointment for my first dose next Tuesday.

Connecticut will not be announcing the full menu of people eligible under Phase 1b until tomorrow, when they supposedly also will announce a statewide website and phone number to make appointments. Everyone needs an appointment. Imagine the flood on those phone lines and website beginning tomorrow.

But I read one sentence in small CT newspaper that said two health networks in the state are accepting online appointments RIGHT NOW for folks 75+, which is me, along with front line medical workers, because they are positive those two groups will be in 1b.

I'm not a member of either medical group, which are not near me, but I was able to sign up on one's website. Virtually every time slot, spaced five or ten minutes apart, was available. So, I grabbed one and got a confirmed appointment.

I've got to travel an hour to get to the clinic, but so what. The only negative is that my wife doesn't turn 75 until May, so we'll still have to hibernate together to stay in sync. We're hoping this clinic will have extra doses on the day of my appointment and they'll sympathize with my wife's plight. Or that the state will include those over 65 with comorbidities in the final 1b menu.
jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 20629



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PostPosted: 01/13/21 6:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
When we've spent most of the past year agonizing about the elevation of politics over science, why are we now commending that? Why are we bumping up other people when frontline healthcare workers are still waiting to get their first injections, particularly since the lack of nurses is constraining hospital capacity in places across the country? Why are we ignoring the fact that we have no solid data evaluating the effectiveness of the vaccine if the second dose is deferred, so we're just going to wing it?


So I can only speak for myself, but here are some of my thoughts on this.

Surely, Pfizer is made up of scientists. Stick a pin in that for a second. I'm hoping and assuming that those at the federal level who came up with the original vaccination schedules were scientists, answering only to the science, but it seems to me that they might be the same people who just abandoned the original plans.

One thing that is a factor is the quality of information we're receiving as a public from the news media. For instance, and there are so many examples, this NYTimes piece was FAR down the page on the NYTimes app, after about seven Trump articles. AND the information that the federal government is now going to change plans to prioritize people who are, for instance, obese, roughly 40% of the population, was buried in this article. Why?

I would suggest BURYING THE LEDE here was done in order to HIDE this critical information that actually effects the very lives of every American beneath the layers of political bullshit in Washington the reporting of which is certainly not as critical as the information that any one of us who a) were expecting to wait until possibly June for a lifesaving vaccine might b) have now been deemed eligible to receive our vaccines immediately.

I would also suggest this is actually how the mainstream media does its job in supporting and stabilizing an un-Democratic elite-driven power structure as it exists in the United States. Because information is power. Let's call this: What Benefits the Masses Does Not Necessarily Benefit the Elite. I won't go into it, because it LITERALLY is from my Poli-Sci 101 classes and as it has been identified and dissected by everyone from God knows who before Noam Chomsky to now Chris Hedges and Matt Tiabbi etc. This is exactly what they do. But that's a whole 'nuther subject.

So what am I talking about as it applies to this? Well, let's get back to Pfizer. The Pfizer vaccine was developed by scientists and scientists most certainly have a voice at Pfizer. As I have REPORTED, and I'm standing on that word with my reputation, I HEARD on a late night broadcast on CNN that Pfizer had stipulated that no one should be withholding first doses in order to make sure they have people's second doses on hand. I'm assuming and counting on the notion that the scientists at Pfizer were behind that guidance.

And now, in this New York Times' piece that I've posted here, Pfizer says something that supports what I contend that I heard:

Pfizer chief executive, Dr. Albert Bourla, said Pfizer and its German partner, BioNTech, have increased their global production estimate this year to two billion doses from 1.3 billion.

We have much more than they can use right now,” he said.


More information that was reported to the public is that California was already vaccinating prisoners and that over half the states had plans to vaccinate prisoners very early, like in the second tier, LONG before those who are now moved up by this latest change in plans including most elderly people and people with pre-existing health conditions.

I started this thread showing how, again by way of the information that was presented to the public by the news media, a massive state bureaucracy LIKE California could, by the wording of its own take on essential personnel, deliver vaccine doses to virtually anyone who works for the state of California or at any school, college or university, trade schools, etc. before THE ELDERLY who are dying disproportionally from this disease OR people with pre-existing conditions who are more likely to get severely ill or die from COVID.

What I ALSO foresaw very soon after that was the rising likelihood that something else entirely might happen and I said it before it was even being reported in the media.

I Tweeted this on 12/29:

I’m predicting a #vaccinapocalypse with tens of millions of #COVID19 #vaccine doses going to waste by being unused or mishandled or stored improperly rendering them ultimately unusable or useless.

And I voiced a similar concern here about a week ago.

Fro, you say that frontline healthcare workers have yet to get their vaccines. I would ask where specifically that is happening but the answer, I'm sure, is that it is indeed happening in many places. But it's not because they weren't stipulated, in most places, to be there in the first tier of those eligible for vaccine doses. It's a host of other logistical problems, I'm assuming, that has prevented them from getting vaccinated wherever that is happening.

But the vaccine landed in California and was being distributed to frontline healthcare workers in mid-December. Here we are a month later and California is the epicenter of the nationwide pandemic and we've only used a fraction of the doses of vaccine that we have on the ground in this state.

So, for sure, each state is apparently doing things in their own way, as the piece I posted here (I linked to the entire story) clearly reports on. But it does not take a scientist to understand that getting vaccine into people's bodies in America and getting it off the shelves of cold storage where it is going unused MUST be a priority above all others. I never said that frontline healthcare workers should be bumped aside and I don't see how that could happen in places where vaccine is plentiful.

In America, we treat people who are very ill or dying with COVID-19 in hospitals. By now, those hospitals where COVID-19 patients are being treated by frontline healthcare workers should have (but clearly haven't in every instance) gotten their allocations of vaccine doses and had time to vaccinate those frontline workers on their staff who are willing to get the vaccine. Continuing to hold up getting the vaccine into the arms of the public because we haven't gotten vaccine delivered to every last hospital (and that has happened and is happening) or if, for any other reason, something is holding up frontline healthcare workers from getting vaccine doses they want to get (still happening, I'm sure) can not be seen as helpful in the fight against COVID continuing to spread throughout the country killing and making people sick.

Surely... and I mean SURELY, there will continue to be failures and horror stories. But I contend that there is NO horror story like vaccine sitting in storage. That is and will be a proven killer of tens of thousands of us. I think that actual scientists looked at the reality of what has happened and made appropriate adjustments.

As far as delaying second doses and data on all that. Again, I believe Pfizer DESIGNED their rollout of the vaccine on a schedule that they determined based on their product and its dosing requirements, as well as their ability to manufacture and deliver it to the government and the states. I would have never thought for a minute that we shouldn't be listening to them on this.

But here's the deal and again this touches on the quality of information we might be receiving. Pfizer is a private company with a now MASSIVELY powerful customer/partner: the federal government. Maybe the reason we're not hearing Pfizer actually publicly SHOUTING to administer the vaccine doses they have already shipped is because they want to tread lightly in terms of their ongoing relationship with this giant all-powerful highly valued customer/partner, the United States of America.



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 20629



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PostPosted: 01/14/21 7:49 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This Bud’s for you, FrozenLVFan:

New York Times again. Don’t click on the link if you don’t want to burn a free article.

Cash, Breakfasts and Firings: An All-Out Push to Vaccinate Wary Medical Workers

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/14/business/covid-vaccine-hospitals-
nursing-homes.html

Anxious about taking a new vaccine and scarred by a history of being mistreated, many frontline workers at hospitals and nursing homes are balking at getting inoculated against Covid-19.

Workers at hospitals and nursing homes were among the first to become eligible to get inoculated against the coronavirus when the vaccines became available last month. Their hesitance has been one reason for the sluggish start to the U.S. vaccination drive.

At Jackson Health System in Miami, a survey of about 5,900 employees found that only half wanted to get a vaccine immediately, a hospital spokeswoman said. Most of the rest said they would consider taking it at some point in the future. But about 880 employees said they were not interested in getting vaccinated at all.

Henry Ford Health System, which runs six hospitals in Michigan, said that as of Wednesday morning, about 22 percent of its 33,000 employees had declined to be vaccinated. Seventy percent have been vaccinated, a spokesman said.

Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio said last month that roughly 60 percent of nursing home staff members offered the vaccine in his state had declined it. In New York City, at least 30 percent of health care workers resisted getting a vaccine in the first round of inoculations, Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Monday.

At Long Island Jewish Hospital in Forest Hills, Queens, respiratory therapists who intubate critically ill coronavirus patients are among those at highest risk of contracting Covid-19. Yet only three of the 19 full-time staff members in the hospital’s respiratory therapy department had agreed to get vaccinated.


etc.



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 01/14/21 8:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I’m posting this LA Times article in it’s entirety because of the dire importance of the subject matter, but also in the hopes that someone could explain what the hell any of it means. I haven’t a clue.

California allows residents 65 and older to get COVID-19 vaccine, but doses remain limited

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-13/california-opens-covid-vaccine-eligibility-people-over-65

SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newson announced Wednesday that people 65 and older are now eligible for COVID-19 vaccinations, but the sudden addition of roughly 6 million people to an already strained distribution network could still leave many waiting weeks for inoculations.

The major expansion of vaccination guidelines, which broadens the priority list beyond healthcare workers and nursing home residents and staffers, has been pushed by some health officials and experts as a way to boost access amid surging caseloads. Newsom and others said it was a positive step forward that will provide access as quickly as possible to people 65 and older, a group that has suffered disproportionately from the virus.

“There is no higher priority than efficiently and equitably distributing these vaccines as quickly as possible to those who face the gravest consequences,” Newsom said in a statement.

But the announcement was met with confusion and pleas for more details from some county health officials, raising questions whether state and local officials are prepared to meet growing demands and expectations for vaccinations. County officials across the state cited an array of ongoing problems that has contributed to the slow rollout, ranging from insufficient doses to not enough healthcare workers who are able to administer vaccine.

Those seeking vaccines have also complained about a scarcity of information on how to make an appointment. Residents on Wednesday flocked to vaccine registration portals, but in some instances, could not load the site — likely due to high traffic. Some county websites were not updated prior to the announcement to communicate who is now eligible.

In Los Angeles, public health officials said people 65 and older won’t have access to the vaccine until the county finishes vaccinating front-line workers. The county plans to vaccinate 500,000 more healthcare workers by the end of January, but currently does not have enough doses to meet that goal.

“We’re not done with our healthcare workers,” said LA County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer, adding that the county has asked the state for more doses. “We haven’t heard back from the state about vaccine availability and how it would be distributed.”

As of last week, L.A. County had administered only about 151,000 doses of the more than 490,990 it has received.

In Santa Clara County, providers are ready to expand vaccine access to all adults 75 and older, but officials say that the county needs more doses. The county asked the state for 100,000 more doses but was told this week it would receive 6,000, said Dr. Jeff Smith, county executive.

The shifting pool of who is eligible has complicated the county’s plans on how to distribute the vaccines. “We’re getting confusing and inconsistent messaging,” Smith said.

California officials have struggled thus far to distribute its allotment of vaccine doses. As of Tuesday, more than 2.8 million doses have been shipped to California, but less than one-third had been administered. There has been lower than expected demand from the healthcare and nursing home workers who have highest priority to receive the vaccines, with up to 40% declining the initial opportunity to be vaccinated.

Ahead of the announcement, some counties have been moving to create mass vaccination sites. At Dodger Stadium, officials are scheduled to open facilities for vaccinations by Friday, and hope to eventually provide up to 12,000 daily doses.

At Disneyland, more than 10,000 people signed up for vaccinations in less than two hours Tuesday. Orange County set a goal to vaccinate more than 7,000 people per day at the site.

Newsom on Wednesday promised more help with vaccine rollouts to achieve his ambitious target of vaccinating an additional 1 million people over the course of 10 days ending Jan. 17.

He announced a new system to let people know when they are eligible to receive a vaccine, but there were no additional details other than it is expected to launch next week. The governor’s office also said a “second phase” of that system will help counties, cities and providers run mass vaccination events for which people could schedule appointments. But that second phase is not expected to be ready for several weeks.

California’s decision to open up eligibility for vaccine comes after federal officials pushed states to take swifter action distributing doses. U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said Tuesday that states had simply moved too slowly and that lifesaving vaccine should be doled out immediately.

“That is the most effective way to save lives now,” Azar said, “and some states’ heavy-handed micromanagement of this process has stood in the way of vaccine reaching a broader swath of the vulnerable population more quickly.”

New federal guidelines call for anyone 65 and older to qualify now for the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. In addition, the federal guidelines say anyone age 16 to 64 with a documented medical condition should also qualify now.

Azar said state regulations limiting who was eligible had “obstructed speed and accessibility” of the vaccines. He added that the federal government will release all of its available vaccine instead of holding back a reserve for second doses.

To push states into making vaccines more readily available, Azar said the federal government was providing two weeks’ notice that future doses would be released to states based on how effectively each used its existing supplies.

“It gives states a strong incentive to ensure doses are going to work protecting people, rather than sitting on shelves or in freezers,” Azar said.

“With the case counts we face now, there is absolutely no time to waste.”
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Tuesday that the Empire State would follow the federal guidelines to drastically open availability, despite concerns about too few vaccines and problems with the state’s system to make appointments.

Prior to the federal push, California planned to allow individuals in certain job sectors, such as education and agriculture, along with adults 75 and older, to be vaccinated next, followed by individuals 65 to 74. Under the new guidelines, the state lowered the age threshold to 65 years and older, bumping that group up to priority access.

“California is in the middle of a surge and as we look at hospitalizations and deaths, we see that 75% of deaths are individuals 65 and older,” said California Surgeon General Dr. Nadine Burke Harris. “We want to distribute as many doses as possible.”

The state, however, will not follow federal guidance calling for individuals 16 to 65 with medical conditions to be eligible now for the vaccine. California has those individuals in the next tier.

Wednesday’s eligibility expansion poses significant challenges. California counties are scrambling to find more healthcare professionals who can administer the shots, large facilities where inoculations can be offered, and more of the vaccines themselves.

Some members of the state’s vaccine advisory committee expressed concern in a meeting Tuesday that, with the focus on age, individuals who might face other vulnerabilities could be lost in the shuffle. Others have raised concern that at-risk individuals, including essential workers, could be overlooked as the doors open for a wider pool of eligible vaccine recipients.

“When you add this big group of people, you end up with not enough vaccine,” Carol Green of the California State Parent Teachers Assn. said at the meeting.



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 01/14/21 8:36 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So much to unpack in the LA Times article.

Again we see a mention of the refusal of a significant portion of frontline healthcare workers to getting vaccinated. And the New York Times piece suggests that this has been a factor in slowing down the overall pace of vaccinations. I guess I’d just like someone to draw me a picture of what exactly that looks like.

So let’s say 30% of your staff at the hospital refuses the vaccine.

Does that mean you keep their doses on the shelf in case they change their minds? And this is happening so much and so widespread and yet it hasn’t been factored in yet with some kind of a quick workaround to put all of these refused vaccine doses back in the pipeline?

For Christ’s sake what else.

Oh. So California is apparently going to quite openly cherry-pick what guidance from the federal government it will follow in determining who is going to be vaccinated and in what order and the picture taking shape there is starting to come into focus around some of my initial concerns as expressed in my first two posts in this thread.

California it seems will decide for itself that front line workers in jobs like, for instance, the entirety of the education system in the state, will get their vaccines before people 16-65 who have medical conditions putting them at risk of developing more serious complications from COVID-19.

Also, despite the state having used only a third of the vaccine it has received and that being the biggest aspect of the story since the vaccine landed a month ago, now the rhetoric is about shortages of vaccine? Despite Pfizer’s CEO saying they have more vaccine than America can use right now.

So I just needed to read it again. And probably a few more times. I do have a slightly better understanding of the information there at this point. But wow. I mean, just wow.

COVID-19 actually kills a very small percentage of those who become infected with it. Older people and those with certain pre-existing medical conditions make up the bulk of those who are sickened the most severely and those who are dying.

Also, the vaccine does not prevent those who are vaccinated from contracting the virus asymptomatically and spreading it to others. It only prevents severe illness and death in those who have received the vaccine.

And so in California, we’re not going to first vaccinate those who are overwhelmingly more likely to become severely ill and to die from coronavirus as per the newest guidelines from the federal government.

We’re going to instead immunize millions of younger stronger people who will STILL be fully capable of becoming infected asymptomatically and passing coronavirus along to their patients or customers or family members who might have these certain pre-existing medical conditions that have proven to be so dangerous for COVID patients?



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
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PostPosted: 01/14/21 1:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
FrozenLVFan wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
tfan wrote:
Gov. announces CT residents ages 75 and older can make vaccine appointments next week

I know the older you are the more at risk, but this fatality rate seems high:

Quote:
The first people among the group will be people 75 years or older. That amounts to five percent of the state’s population, but this is the segment of the population that is seeing a 60 percent fatality rate.


This is just another example of the incompetent state of journalism today, where all most reporters do is read Twitter and Facebook. I always rely on my own research for anything technical.

As best as I can figure from somewhat fuzzy population statistics, there are about 245,000 people in CT 75 and older. Interpolating the official CT Covid death statistics from yesterday, there have been about 3,500 confirmed Covid deaths in this age group. That would be a death percentage of 1.4% for the entire state population of 75 and older folk.

If we are instead talking about death percentage of 75 and older among confirmed Covid cases in that age group, that (interpolated) would be about 3,500 confirmed deaths divided by about 17,315 confirmed cases = 20%.

Finally, if we are talking about confirmed deaths of 75 and older as a percentage of total confirmed Covid deaths in the state, that (interpolated) would be about 3,500 divided by 5,210 = 67%. This is the percentage to which the sloppy reporter was probably referring.


Death percentage isn't a recognized term and lacks specificity. When referring to a disease occurring in some population over a time period...

The case fatality rate for the disease is the number of deaths divided by the number of people with the disease. Using your numbers 3500/17315 = 20%.

The mortality rate of the disease is the number of deaths divided by the number of people in the specified group. 3500/245000 = 1.4%


Thanks, I appreciate correct terminology. So, what's infection fatality rate (IFR)?


I had to look IFR up.

Per the CDC, the infection fatality rate is the number of individuals who die of the disease among all infected individuals (symptomatic and asymptomatic). So compared to the case fatality rate, it includes, or attempts to include, all asymptomatic patients in the denominator. This presupposes that enough testing has been done of the general population to determine the prevalence of asymptomatic patients, and it's supposed to give a better "big picture" of what's going on with the disease.

Because your numbers don't include enough info about asymptomatic patients, all we can know is that the IFR will be less than the CFR of 20%.


jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 01/14/21 6:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

NYTimes again:


The Maddening Red Tape Facing Older People Who Want the Vaccine

A million city residents who are over 65 are now eligible to be vaccinated. But try making an appointment.


By Sharon Otterman
Jan. 14, 2021
Updated 3:52 p.m. ET

In the city, over a million older New Yorkers started the week with optimism that they would finally gain access to the vaccine after months of fearing they would fall victim to the coronavirus. But the reality of actually getting the shots has proved to be far more maddening.

Buggy websites, multiple sign-up systems that act in parallel but do not link together and a lack of outreach are causing exasperation and exhaustion among older New Yorkers and others trying to set up vaccination appointments. It is also stymying New York’s early efforts to get the vaccine to many of the city’s most vulnerable, creating a situation that elected officials say risks exacerbating the inequalities that Covid-19 has already laid painfully bare.

The race to vaccinate millions of New Yorkers has reached a critical point, as officials on Wednesday announced that two cases of a more contagious British variant of the virus had been detected in New York City, one in Manhattan and one in Queens.

The state has used 35 percent of its available vaccine, in line with the national average in a rollout that has gone far slower than expected nationwide. New York City has distributed 38 percent of its shots, with 491,000 available doses as of Thursday.

But in the race to get shots in arms, some say the bigger picture about exactly whose arms should be prioritized has been lost.

“Here we are, facing a global pandemic, with thousands of New Yorkers who have lost their lives, and who is again the forgotten group of people? The very people who need help the most,” said Mark Treyger, a city councilman from Brooklyn.

“Right now, if we don’t get more vaccine, there literally will not be appointments available after the next couple of weeks,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said at a Wednesday news conference. He called the frustrating sign-up system a smaller problem by comparison.

On Thursday, the main New York State website posted an all-caps alert, blaming the federal government for not sending enough shots for the 7 million New Yorkers now eligible and saying all appointments at state-run sites were booked for the next 14 weeks.

In Jackson Heights, Roseline David, 80, a retired auditor, said that she had been trying to get vaccination appointments for herself and her husband since Monday. She sent repeated messages to her regular doctor. She spent hours on the city’s website on Tuesday night, painstakingly filling out forms, only to find out at the end that there was no availability and she had to cancel out of the system. She called 311 and is waiting for a call back.

“I’ve spent about 18 to 19 hours so far,” she said on Wednesday. “I call this harassment. It affects my mental ability to do other things. And this is only for the first shot, who knows when the second shot is coming?”



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: 01/14/21 8:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It will be chaos everywhere for a very long time.

Yesterday, in CT, when two hospital systems opened up appointments to 75 year olds in anticipation of today's official announcement, I had my pick of over a thousand five-minute appointment slots at several locations next week. Today, a few hours after the government's official announcement for 75's, the same websites have no openings for 75's until March.

And the online lines will even get longer, when all the other groups now allowed into Phase 1B are allowed to book along with the 75's.

There are about 245,000 75+'s but another million+ people in CT's Phase 1b. The state is getting 46,000 does per week. You do the math. The governor stumbled and evaded when asked about these actual numbers by reporters this afternoon. "Maybe we'll get more supply from the federal government." "Maybe some other states will give us their excess supply." "Maybe we'll continue to have only a 60% 'uptake' [translation: 40% refuseniks] in the 1.3 million Phase 1b population."

I wouldn't expect general availability of the vaccine for the entire U.S. population for a year.

In CT, aside from the private website signups at two or three hospital systems, there is a State telephone number, probably staffed by about 20 people for thousands of calls a day. The other official route is to email the Department of Health, which will send you a code number for you to log onto a CDC website called VAMS, which will then attempt to schedule an appointment. I would assume VAMS is already jammed if not crashed.

Note that all of these methods of getting an appointment require you to have computer access and an email address, other than the obviously-to-be-overwhelmed state telephone numbers, which lots of older and sick people just don't have.

Summary: The very old folks with the very highest mortality risk and most computer illiteracy, not in group homes, will likely end up near the end of the virtual appointment lines.
jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 01/14/21 10:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Very bad rollout. I’m trying to switch up my news sources. But the story that is emerging is really bad and inadequately reported on. They’ve done these prime time network news specials and town halls on so many things, some of them even of peripheral importance. If there was ever a moment for a deep investigative dive in a two hour prime time special on ABC, etc. this would most assuredly be that moment. Get the questions and get the answers and present it all to the American people. Oh why do I bother to dream of such things?



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 01/15/21 3:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Vaccine reserve was already exhausted when Trump administration vowed to release it, dashing hopes of expanded access


By Isaac Stanley-Becker and Lena H. Sun

January 15 at 10:06 AM PT

Washington Post

States were anticipating a windfall after federal officials said they would stop holding back second doses. But the approach had already changed, and no stockpile exists.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/15/trump-vaccine-reserve-used-up/



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 01/15/21 4:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

In New Jersey, smokers can now get the coronavirus vaccine before teachers or public transit workers


By Andrea Salcedo

January 15 at 4:30 AM PT
Washington Post

As New Jersey expands its coronavirus vaccine distribution this week, state officials announced that anyone 65 or over can now get the shots, as well as those between 16-64 with certain medical conditions.


One group covered among those medical conditions, though, has raised backlash — namely, the state’s roughly 2 million smokers, who can now get the vaccine before teachers or public transit workers.


State officials say smokers should be a priority for the nearly 732,000 doses New Jersey has received so far because, just like those suffering from other underlying medical conditions, they run the risk of experiencing more severe covid-19 symptoms.


“Smoking puts you at a significant risk for and adverse result from covid-19,” state Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said at a Wednesday news conference.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/15/newjersey-smokers-covid-19-vaccine/



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 2237



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PostPosted: 01/15/21 5:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
Vaccine reserve was already exhausted when Trump administration vowed to release it, dashing hopes of expanded access


By Isaac Stanley-Becker and Lena H. Sun

January 15 at 10:06 AM PT

Washington Post

States were anticipating a windfall after federal officials said they would stop holding back second doses. But the approach had already changed, and no stockpile exists.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/15/trump-vaccine-reserve-used-up/



I am shocked, shocked I say, to learn that maybe the governors who complained they were only allocated a fraction of the doses requested and then only received a fraction of their allocations were maybe telling the truth, and that there's a problem with vax supply.

FrozenLVFan wrote:
States and hospitals are holding doses for the second round because they've been unable to even obtain their full allocations for the first round.

FrozenLVFan wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
Fro is that because the feds are withholding stockpiles?


IDK. I doubt it's "withholding." Either the fed isn't getting the supplies from the manufacturers, or more likely it's bureaucratic ineptitude in the supply chain. Just a guess.

Example...NH had 113K people in Tier 1a, and the federal govt allocated 65K doses for those people. NH had received 49K doses as of the end of Dec. (The state has actually administered >50% of what it's received, so obviously it's not withholding a second round of doses for all the patients who received a first round dose.)


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: 01/15/21 6:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

My wife, an R.N., got her first Covid shot today.

Two days ago, one computer appointment system asked three questions: Are you allergic to any vaccines? Are you exclusively a telehealth worker? Do you work in an ambulatory/outpatient setting, for our healthcare network, or both?

Yesterday, the questions were two: Allergy? Are you any kind of healthcare worker?

Later yesterday, the only question was: Allergy? My guess is that the healthcare network kept loosening up the qualification questions so that their doses wouldn't go to waste.

At the vaccination site today, no one asked for any proof of being a healthcare worker or mentioned the subject of occupation at all. Therefore, anyone really could have gotten an appointment, lying if necessary. ("I'm a part time janitor in a doctor's office.") This lack of verification will get exponentially worse for the cohort of 16-64 year-olds who can register under Phase 1b if they have any one of 12 CDC medical conditions, including obesity or smoking. (Yessiree, as they used to say in the ads: "Come to Marlboro country.")

We had to travel 23 miles to get this first shot for my wife. We'll have to travel to a different location 60 miles away for her second shot. My first shot will be at a third location about 40 miles away.

If you don't have a computer, an email address, the time to spend 18 hours a day checking multiple health provider websites for changes to appointment times and places every 15 minutes, and a car, good luck scheduling a Covid shot in Connecticut.

But we're happy with the outcome, and I haven't had to spend time for three days reading about nothingburger WBB.


Last edited by GlennMacGrady on 01/15/21 6:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 13227
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 01/15/21 6:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
My first shot will be at a third location about 40 miles away.

If you don't have a computer, an email address, the time to spend 18 hours a day checking multiple health provider websites for changes to appointment times and places every 15 minutes, and a car, good luck scheduling a Covid shot in Connecticut.

But we're happy with the outcome, and I haven't had to spend time for three days reading about nothingburger WBB.


Ummmm, is this your "concession speech" re: the validity of the pandemic's spread? If you've ever done a retraction to your earlier *Hoaxer* theories, I've missed it. Wink



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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 01/15/21 6:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
My first shot will be at a third location about 40 miles away.

If you don't have a computer, an email address, the time to spend 18 hours a day checking multiple health provider websites for changes to appointment times and places every 15 minutes, and a car, good luck scheduling a Covid shot in Connecticut.

But we're happy with the outcome, and I haven't had to spend time for three days reading about nothingburger WBB.


Ummmm, is this your "concession speech" re: the validity of the pandemic's spread? If you've ever done a retraction to your earlier *Hoaxer* theories, I've missed it. Wink


I know you're trying to joke, but I don't receive it well. You clearly have not read, or have not understood, or are deliberately misrepresenting my 100's of statistical posts on Covid, virtually all providing links to medical authority.

In case you missed it, there never has been any doubt that folks in their mid-70's with comorbidities are at high relative risk of death. Just three days ago in this very thread, I calculated the case fatality rate for 75+ year old people in Connecticut to be 20%. However, there have been and still are plenty of valid medical and scientific doubts, debates and disputes about many other aspects of the virus, the pandemic and the responses to it.
Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 13227
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 01/15/21 7:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
Howee wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
My first shot will be at a third location about 40 miles away.

If you don't have a computer, an email address, the time to spend 18 hours a day checking multiple health provider websites for changes to appointment times and places every 15 minutes, and a car, good luck scheduling a Covid shot in Connecticut.

But we're happy with the outcome, and I haven't had to spend time for three days reading about nothingburger WBB.


Ummmm, is this your "concession speech" re: the validity of the pandemic's spread? If you've ever done a retraction to your earlier *Hoaxer* theories, I've missed it. Wink


I know you're trying to joke, but I don't receive it well. You clearly have not read, or have not understood, or are deliberately misrepresenting my 100's of statistical posts on Covid, virtually all providing links to medical authority.


You understandably might not "receive it well." It wasn't a commendation, but rather, speaking truth to one who CLEARLY parlayed the statistics-du-jour back when, to (apparently) undergird a political perspective; if you were always/only playing Devil's Advocate, okay.... that can be productive to discussions here. But I (and many others) saw many posts that implied The Truth was systematically hidden in the early days of the crisis, etc., or that we oughtn't fear what is NOW our reality. Jus' sayin'.

Here are some past comments whose author might acknowledge error in their prejudgment.

GlennMacGrady wrote:
(3/10/20)This is the most hyped thing I've ever seen.
Some perspective.

Neither the WHO nor the CDC has yet to deem this a pandemic. The H1N1 (swine) flu in 2009-10 was a pandemic. According to Wikipedia, it is estimated that 11–21% of the then global population (of about 6.8 billion), or around 700 million–1.4 billion people contracted the swine flu — more in absolute terms than the Spanish flu pandemic. There were about 150,000–575,000 fatalities.

Speaking now just in terms of the U.S., here's how the 29 deaths attributed to the coronavirus would have been reported before the age of social media, internet and 24-hour cable news stations. On page seven of your local newspaper a small blurb would have said that 19 people at a nursing home in Washington state have died from an sudden infection. The other ten deaths would not have been reported at all, because that number of people may have died from choking on bubble gum during an equivalent period. That's it.

Maybe this will turn out to be a world-destroying Andromeda strain. But, as of now, count me as skeptical.


GlennMacGrady wrote:
(3/14/20)President Obama didn't declare the H1N1 (swine) flu a national emergency until seven months (October) after the first cases appeared in the U.S. (March) and when the total deaths were approaching 4,000 (November). Even then and thereafter, there was little media attention.

Make more sense now? Do you still wanna compare Obama's H1N1 outcomes to this hot mess?

GlennMacGrady wrote:
(3/16/20)Let's play CDC estimator for coronavirus. Using the data in the table, if we estimate the actual coronavirus cases to be a very modest 20 times the 3,806 confirmed cases, that would be 76,120 estimated cases. Using that as the denominator, the estimated coronavirus death rate would be 69/76,120 = 0.09%.

Panic and hoard over that, lemmings.


Lemmings are so cute, but....I'm not one of them, as a rule.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 01/15/21 7:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The jab was personal. Bringing up past shit at a time when we’re all literally trying to survive. Literally. Trying. To. Survive. Physically and emotionally. Let’s think about the person on the other end of our jabs.



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Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
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