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WNBA Mock Offseason

 
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Richyyy



Joined: 17 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: 12/17/20 9:01 pm    ::: WNBA Mock Offseason Reply Reply with quote

Borrowing an idea from the Dunc'd On NBA podcast, we recorded a bumper WNBA podcast simulating the offseason process. So six of us - myself, Kevin Pelton, Gabe Ibrahim, Clay Kallam, Ben Dull and Aaron Barzilai - took charge of two teams each, with Megan Gauer playing the role of player agent (and/or the actual players, where relevant). We started off with core designations and qualifying offers, just like the teams have to, then progressed to battling over free agents and negotiating signings and salaries. We even made a few trades along the way. Give it a listen, and let us know what you think (both of the exercise, and our moves Wink ).

I only have the Apple Podcasts link right now, but I presume it's available on all the usual platforms, or will be shortly. Look for the Her Hoop Stats Podcast.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-her-hoop-stats-podcast-wnba-womens-college-basketball/id1465418089



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root_thing



Joined: 28 Apr 2007
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PostPosted: 12/18/20 1:53 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'll have more to say in the morning because it's late and I want to go to bed, but that was very entertaining. Also, eye-opening in terms of some of the low offers people got (Tina Charles, Brionna Jones, and Riquna Williams). Another surprise was all the one-year contracts.

My major criticism was having only Megan represent all the players. That's an overwhelming task for one person, and just guessing from the way she speaks, I don't think Megan has the hardball alpha-dog personality to be an agent. She shouldn't just be sitting back and waiting for offers. She should be actively pitching her players to teams. Other than that, I don't see Jonathan Kolb making an offer for almost every free agent available, especially wing players who are over 30. Laughing



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Richyyy



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 11:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thanks for listening root_thing. I'm sure some players - like, for instance, Tina Charles - are viewed somewhat differently inside the league than by us on the outside. But it was certainly interesting the way the money and roster opportunities began to run out pretty quickly. As I wrote about a month or two ago, unless players are willing to go to bad teams they're going to have to take less money in several cases. That may even mean the vet minimum for some pretty decent players if they're willing to play for that rather than just stay home.

For those who don't want to listen to the whole thing, or who want an idea of what we got done before bothering, there's now a summary article/list of the moves and deals we made: https://herhoopstats.substack.com/p/mock-2021-wnba-free-agency-podcast

There are also links in there for the podcast at places other than Apple for those who want them.

root_thing wrote:
Other than that, I don't see Jonathan Kolb making an offer for almost every free agent available, especially wing players who are over 30. Laughing

As long as 'he' doesn't actually get any of them, all he's doing is making the rest of us spend more money to get them Wink.



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root_thing



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 11:27 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:

root_thing wrote:
Other than that, I don't see Jonathan Kolb making an offer for almost every free agent available, especially wing players who are over 30. Laughing

As long as 'he' doesn't actually get any of them, all he's doing is making the rest of us spend more money to get them Wink.


Yeah, the final results for New York -- signing Chiney and re-signing Zahui -- were pretty reasonable. And I get that Gabe was just trying to jack up prices for a lot of these players to make sure the other teams used up their cap space. I'm sure that happens to a certain extent in real life. However, I don't think any GM would play the bad guy role for virtually every free agent available. That would make you the most unpopular GM in the league, and then down the road, all your peers will be looking to stick it to you at every turn. The other thing is that Kolb and Hopkins are always emphasizing to everybody that they have a plan. Indiscriminately offering almost every free agent a contract regardless of position, age, experience or skill set doesn't sound like a plan. It's more like shameless begging. Laughing



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TDAO



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 11:59 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
However, I don't think any GM would play the bad guy role for virtually every free agent available. That would make you the most unpopular GM in the league, and then down the road, all your peers will be looking to stick it to you at every turn.

On the other hand, bidding up players makes you the good guy with agents. Not sure which is more important long-term.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 12:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Fun entertaining stuff.

And this one struck me as nutso for Dallas:
Quote:
Dallas trades Allisha Gray with her consent in a sign and trade along with Isabelle Harrison, Kayla Thornton, and the 2021 No. 7 pick to Indiana for Victoria Vivians and the No. 4 pick


I know they have a lot of players but Gray and Thornton, and even Izzy, are important cogs on their team. I actually love VViv but her value at this point is half or 2/3 of any of those Dallas players, and see the mock draft for what we think of #4.



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root_thing



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 12:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

TDAO wrote:

On the other hand, bidding up players makes you the good guy with agents. Not sure which is more important long-term.

As with most things in life, balance probably works best.


myrtle wrote:

And this one struck me as nutso for Dallas:
Quote:
Dallas trades Allisha Gray with her consent in a sign and trade along with Isabelle Harrison, Kayla Thornton, and the 2021 No. 7 pick to Indiana for Victoria Vivians and the No. 4 pick


I know they have a lot of players but Gray and Thornton, and even Izzy, are important cogs on their team. I actually love VViv but her value at this point is half or 2/3 of any of those Dallas players, and see the mock draft for what we think of #4.


I agree. That one immediately struck me as being lopsided in favor of Indiana. However, the "Dallas GM" apparently does not like Thornton so he views it as a salary dump. Gaining cap space is the additional asset on his side -- just like the real Dallas GM dumped Tayler Hill's salary on the Liberty last season.



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Richyyy



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 1:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

There's more commentary on what happened coming next week - we recorded a podcast reviewing the podcast Very Happy, and I believe Ben Dull (the Dallas/Vegas mock GM) is writing something as well. So there'll be some further analysis/explanation. But I believe Ben's general view was that the current core, including Gray, isn't going to make Dallas a genuine contender, so he preferred to get some salary off the books, open up some roster spots for all those new rookies, move up the draft a bit and take a shot on Vivians. But yeah, it's a move I wouldn't have made. I'd have rather just kept Gray, especially considering there was then no use made of the extra space he'd opened up. So barring a big midseason trade, that only leaves one more offseason where clearing that salary has the chance to be worth anything.

And it's not like Harrison or Thornton are just worthless contracts (like Hill essentially was). They're not stars, but they're at least useful players.



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myrtle



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 1:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think all three of those players have value to other teams, so if you want to dump them at least get some value. But getting rid of ALL your vets just seems ridiculous. And if I were Indy, I'd do that trade in a hearbeat. It immediately improves their team hugely and gives them options about some marginal players.



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TDAO



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 2:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Harrison has value, but it's not as much as you could likely get for the same salary in free agency, so I do think the Wings would have to include something to move her salary.

In my case, including her in the trade did prevent me from making a run at Brionna Jones that would have bid her eventual salary way up, so it was a negative I weighed in making the deal. (Outweighed, clearly, by getting Allisha Gray.)

As Richard notes, I think the big question is why Dallas would want to prioritize opening up cap space at this point without much to do with it.


Randy



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 2:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nice work, and I appreciate the written summary.

Anigwe to Phoenix seems like it would have an explosive effect on team chemistry. Razz



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Richyyy



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 3:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Trade possibilities and general roster manipulation would get way more variable and interesting if we just had more teams. It's often not lack of money or even roster spots that block things - there just aren't that many people/teams to work deals with. The "oh I'll be able to ship that player somewhere" or "someone must need a decent big at a reasonable salary" moves can get really tricky with only 12 teams. There are always going to be a few teams already stocked, and a few capped out, and then maybe a couple more rebuilding... and you very quickly run out of options.



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ClayK



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 4:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
Nice work, and I appreciate the written summary.

Anigwe to Phoenix seems like it would have an explosive effect on team chemistry. Razz


On the one hand (as I was Phoenix), Anigwe fits as a backup because she's a shotblocker and low-post scorer, so nothing schematic has to change when she comes in. And she's cheap, which was vital to allow Phoenix to sign Shatori Walker-Kimbrough. Finding a decent backup at the rookie minimum was going to be an issue. And presumably, they're professionals.

On the other hand, should add a little intensity to scrimmages in practice -- and I know both would be in shape if Kristine ducks and runs as she did in the past. Why do sprints? "Everyone follow those two" ...



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Richyyy



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 4:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Meanwhile as LA, we were thoroughly happy to get the #6 overall pick - even in a crapshoot draft - for a player who's been at best mediocre for three different WNBA teams in her two seasons in the league (and hasn't impressed in Europe and international play, either). It could potentially leave LA a bit thin inside if Vadeeva doesn't show up, but I didn't think the possible downgrade from Anigwe to Random Backup Post X was enough to worry about.



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DFWub2018



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PostPosted: 12/18/20 5:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
Fun entertaining stuff.

And this one struck me as nutso for Dallas:
Quote:
Dallas trades Allisha Gray with her consent in a sign and trade along with Isabelle Harrison, Kayla Thornton, and the 2021 No. 7 pick to Indiana for Victoria Vivians and the No. 4 pick


I know they have a lot of players but Gray and Thornton, and even Izzy, are important cogs on their team. I actually love VViv but her value at this point is half or 2/3 of any of those Dallas players, and see the mock draft for what we think of #4.


Jeeeeeeez, why do they hate us so much in this league 🙉


Richyyy



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PostPosted: 12/23/20 10:52 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Podcast reviewing and analysing the Mock Offseason podcast is out. Also assesses how realistic we felt it was, and how differently reality might play out.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-her-hoop-stats-podcast-wnba-womens-college-basketball/id1465418089#episodeGuid=849f46e8-4674-4ff3-8e06-f75efea774fd

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7EgOaLG1b222wdaxlmaxTZ?si=22bp-4nTRvq3BsDle6cJGg&nd=1



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