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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 8219



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PostPosted: 11/19/20 1:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I have to get a COVID-19 test before they will go ahead with a colonoscopy. Apparently they don't go as deep in the nose as they once did:

Quote:
Also, our testing centers are now using shorter, less invasive swabs (mid-turbinate) that don't go nearly as far into the nose.


tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 8219



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PostPosted: 11/20/20 10:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Without any explanation as to why, a Spanish study claims people who have groceries delivered have twice the risk of getting COVID-19 versus people who shop at the store. And people with dogs face a 78% higher risk of getting it than those without.

On the other hand a UK study says supermarkets are the most common place to catch COVID-19

So avoid grocery buying to be safest. Hopefully your garage has a few years worth of pasta and pasta sauce stocked up. And hopefully you have a garage.

Quote:
The following list is where, according to the PHE data, people were most likely to contract Covid;19:

Supermarket - 18.3%

Secondary school - 12.7%

Primary school - 10.1%

Hospital - 3.6%

Care home - 2.8%

College - 2.4%

Warehouse - 2.2%

Nursery preschool - 1.8%

Pub or bar - 1.6%

Hospitality - 1.5%

University - 1.4%

Manufacture engineering - 1.4%

Household fewer than five - 1.2%

General practice - 1.1%

Gym - 1.1%

Restaurant or cafe - 1.0%


But then again, other studies show that superspreader events are where most of the virus is transmitted

Quote:
Many studies now suggest the majority of people with COVID-19 barely pass it on to anyone else, but when infections happen they can be explosive and supercharge an outbreak.

Then the virus can infect "10, 20, 50, or even more people", said Benjamin Althouse, research scientist at the Institute for Disease Modeling.


jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 20496



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PostPosted: 11/21/20 10:37 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
I have to get a COVID-19 test before they will go ahead with a colonoscopy. Apparently they don't go as deep in the nose as they once did:

Quote:
Also, our testing centers are now using shorter, less invasive swabs (mid-turbinate) that don't go nearly as far into the nose.


Sometimes I don’t know if some of you have most bone desert dry sense of humor ever or not.



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 2098



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PostPosted: 11/21/20 11:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

We are now at 195K new cases/day. We are going to hit 12M cases by the end of the day, only 5 days after 11M, which was 6 days after hitting 10M. Percentages of ER visits, positive tests, and hospitalization rates are all up. Unless we take some draconian measures to control community spread, we'll be over 30M total cases by Feb 1st and our hospital system will be in dire straits.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html


FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 11/21/20 12:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Without any explanation as to why, a Spanish study claims people who have groceries delivered have twice the risk of getting COVID-19 versus people who shop at the store. And people with dogs face a 78% higher risk of getting it than those without.

On the other hand a UK study says supermarkets are the most common place to catch COVID-19

So avoid grocery buying to be safest. Hopefully your garage has a few years worth of pasta and pasta sauce stocked up. And hopefully you have a garage.

Quote:
The following list is where, according to the PHE data, people were most likely to contract Covid;19:

Supermarket - 18.3%

Secondary school - 12.7%

Primary school - 10.1%

Hospital - 3.6%

Care home - 2.8%

College - 2.4%

Warehouse - 2.2%

Nursery preschool - 1.8%

Pub or bar - 1.6%

Hospitality - 1.5%

University - 1.4%

Manufacture engineering - 1.4%

Household fewer than five - 1.2%

General practice - 1.1%

Gym - 1.1%

Restaurant or cafe - 1.0%


But then again, other studies show that superspreader events are where most of the virus is transmitted

Quote:
Many studies now suggest the majority of people with COVID-19 barely pass it on to anyone else, but when infections happen they can be explosive and supercharge an outbreak.

Then the virus can infect "10, 20, 50, or even more people", said Benjamin Althouse, research scientist at the Institute for Disease Modeling.


Of course obtaining groceries is the most common place to catch COVID. Everyone has to eat. Not everyone is involved in a lot of other activities.

I believe that superspreader commentary is true, but the predominant method of transmission is now community spread, followed by exposure at healthcare jobs.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 13121
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 11/21/20 12:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

The insanity of it all. Razz

This is amusing, to say the least:
Quote:
The following list is where, according to the PHE data, people were most likely to contract Covid;19:

Supermarket - 18.3%

Secondary school - 12.7%

Primary school - 10.1%

Hospital - 3.6%

Care home - 2.8%

College - 2.4%

Warehouse - 2.2%

Nursery preschool - 1.8%

Pub or bar - 1.6%

Hospitality - 1.5%

University - 1.4%

Manufacture engineering - 1.4%

Household fewer than five - 1.2%

General practice - 1.1%

Gym - 1.1%

Restaurant or cafe - 1.0%


A difference between 'college' and 'university'? And what about "Households with more than five"? Shocked



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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 8219



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PostPosted: 11/21/20 9:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
I have to get a COVID-19 test before they will go ahead with a colonoscopy. Apparently they don't go as deep in the nose as they once did:

Quote:
Also, our testing centers are now using shorter, less invasive swabs (mid-turbinate) that don't go nearly as far into the nose.


So I did a self something or other. They handed me a swab through the car window. After showing me how much of the handle should go into my nose I was told to swirl it 5 times and "swirl it on the way out", for both noses. He mentioned the "swirl it on the way out" a few times which I was confused by thinking I could have just done more swirling before taking it out, but now I realize that must have been to get contact on the lower part of the nose cavity. But seems like they should just tell you to lower it and then swirl 5 times as that gets a better sample as it is hard to do it well "on the way out".




Last edited by tfan on 11/22/20 10:46 pm; edited 3 times in total
tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 8219



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PostPosted: 11/21/20 9:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
tfan wrote:
I have to get a COVID-19 test before they will go ahead with a colonoscopy. Apparently they don't go as deep in the nose as they once did:

Quote:
Also, our testing centers are now using shorter, less invasive swabs (mid-turbinate) that don't go nearly as far into the nose.


Sometimes I don’t know if some of you have most bone desert dry sense of humor ever or not.


I have been accused of having a dry sense of humor before (I think accurately), but I wasn't intentionally trying to be funny there.

By the way jammer, did you happen to come across or be aware of the weekly MAGA rallies they were having in a park in Beverly Hills followed by a march down Rodeo Drive? I was looking at the crowd trying to see if anyone looked like it could be you. Can you confirm or deny whether or not you are MAGA Hulk?



<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/01qvQDG1zA0" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>


J-Spoon



Joined: 31 Jan 2009
Posts: 5782



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PostPosted: 11/23/20 9:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I have taken 4 tests since June

I travel home to Boston to help m mother but because she is high risk I always take a test before I go.

The first three times it was the long nasal swab which was similar to ramming a drum stick into your brain, swishing it around for five seconds and then they removed it with some brain tissue attached to test. In June results took seven days, in July 16 (I went and returned before I got the results, I actually got the results when my plane touched down back in NY which kind of defeated the purpose, but need to go out weighed the risk), in September the results took 3 days, but it was so painful I slapped the doctors hand away out of instinct and he had to perform it again so technically two test in one day (full disclosure I am a bad patient and have a low tolerance for pain. I know others who had no problem with test at all).

this past week I took my fourth test (all tests negative by the way) it was the less invasive nasal swab one thousands times better and it was a rapid test so I knew the results fifteen minutes after I received the test. (Only problem now is the lines at CityMD are around the block as opposed to getting in and out in twenty minutes as was the case over the summer).

The first three time I traveled by plane and it was such a ghost town I felt very safe, I actually thought it was more likely I would get infected on the subway ride over than the plane. (I am not a fancy plane person usually but 5 hours on the Greyhound, Peter Pan or the $20 Chinatown bus to Boston just seemed like a death wish during Covid). I just returned today from the fourth time and even though it is being advised not to travel for Thanksgiving I can tell you first hand many people are. I realize that since I was also traveling I am a hypocrite but I am fearful how these next months will play out as it is spiking and it seems while many aren't going to travel many still are. I felt the airlines and most individuals I encountered were all being diligent but the sheer numbers vs my previous trips is what has me a little worried.


jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 20496



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PostPosted: 11/23/20 10:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
jammerbirdi wrote:
tfan wrote:
I have to get a COVID-19 test before they will go ahead with a colonoscopy. Apparently they don't go as deep in the nose as they once did:

Quote:
Also, our testing centers are now using shorter, less invasive swabs (mid-turbinate) that don't go nearly as far into the nose.


Sometimes I don’t know if some of you have most bone desert dry sense of humor ever or not.


I have been accused of having a dry sense of humor before (I think accurately), but I wasn't intentionally trying to be funny there.

By the way jammer, did you happen to come across or be aware of the weekly MAGA rallies they were having in a park in Beverly Hills followed by a march down Rodeo Drive? I was looking at the crowd trying to see if anyone looked like it could be you. Can you confirm or deny whether or not you are MAGA Hulk?



<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/01qvQDG1zA0" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>


I have stories. And pictures. That’s all I’ll say for now. Except this. I’ve been a COVID careful paranoid since March. Very careful. So the rallies were a weekly thing yes. But Beverly Hills was the epicenter of a lot of things this summer. So one day, on the corner of Brighton Way and Canon Drive, we’re on Brighton trying to cross Canon. Police motorcycles pull up and block us. We’re the first car, and we’re like WTF? And then this fucking marching army of Trump supporters starts to parade up Canon.

I have a cloth mask I wear from the apartment to the car and I keep it around my neck. I pull it up but other than that COMPLETELY forget that there’s a pandemic going on. The photographer instinct is as irresistible as sex or hunger. So I jump out of the car and start shooting. I’m happier than I’ve been in months. Everyone is festive and I’m down low to get those kinds of shots and then it passes and I get back in the car.

So then I start looking at the pictures. No one is wearing a mask. I mean NO ONE.

And you know, it was just like THAT, in a snap of the fingers, this dumb mother fucker very suddenly remembered that we’re in the middle of a pandemic. Rolling Eyes I’m not going to lie. That was a god-awful creepy moment.

But that was at least two months ago and I’m fine. But that really surprised me. That I still have the capacity to be that reckless is scary.



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
jammerbirdi



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 20496



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PostPosted: 11/23/20 10:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

J-Spoon wrote:
I have taken 4 tests since June

I travel home to Boston to help m mother but because she is high risk I always take a test before I go.

The first three times it was the long nasal swab which was similar to ramming a drum stick into your brain, swishing it around for five seconds and then they removed it with some brain tissue attached to test. In June results took seven days, in July 16 (I went and returned before I got the results, I actually got the results when my plane touched down back in NY which kind of defeated the purpose, but need to go out weighed the risk), in September the results took 3 days, but it was so painful I slapped the doctors hand away out of instinct and he had to perform it again so technically two test in one day (full disclosure I am a bad patient and have a low tolerance for pain. I know others who had no problem with test at all).

this past week I took my fourth test (all tests negative by the way) it was the less invasive nasal swab one thousands times better and it was a rapid test so I knew the results fifteen minutes after I received the test. (Only problem now is the lines at CityMD are around the block as opposed to getting in and out in twenty minutes as was the case over the summer).

The first three time I traveled by plane and it was such a ghost town I felt very safe, I actually thought it was more likely I would get infected on the subway ride over than the plane. (I am not a fancy plane person usually but 5 hours on the Greyhound, Peter Pan or the $20 Chinatown bus to Boston just seemed like a death wish during Covid). I just returned today from the fourth time and even though it is being advised not to travel for Thanksgiving I can tell you first hand many people are. I realize that since I was also traveling I am a hypocrite but I am fearful how these next months will play out as it is spiking and it seems while many aren't going to travel many still are. I felt the airlines and most individuals I encountered were all being diligent but the sheer numbers vs my previous trips is what has me a little worried.


Daunting stories there. I heard a poll that said something like 65% of Americans think that getting family together on Thanksgiving is worth the risk. Lot a people traveling. I feel for people and what they’re going through and I hope it all turns out in their favor. But wow.



_________________
Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin
FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 2098



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PostPosted: 11/28/20 2:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yesterday our new daily case count hit 205K (some of which represents cases that weren't counted on the holiday), but it pushed us over 13M. We're adding 1M new cases every 5-6 days.

Our next superspreader event?
https://deadspin.com/arizona-to-host-massive-soccer-tournament-because-stupi-1845764925


tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
Posts: 8219



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PostPosted: 11/29/20 5:41 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Months ago, some guy sent out an email on our complex group list about being on the elevator and someone came running in from the garage to get on and they weren't wearing a mask. The person writing then exited the elevator while the maskless interloper said "Oh, I actually have a mask with me!". After that story was told the office went and put up signs on every single hallway/common door in the complex and by all the elevators saying to wear a mask and quoting the state or local health department about it being a requirement in various areas, including common areas of multi-unit residences. But there wasn't anything about any penalties for not doing so.

At around 10:30 pm last night I was in the small mailroom which is next to the elevators at the garage level. Even with all these signs everywhere and all these headlines and news reports about how it keeps getting worse and worse and various places are starting new restrictions... in walks a couple and their young son, none of whom are wearing masks. And they were Asian, the folks who pioneered wearing masks, in the heavily Democratic San Francisco Bay area. I think we should give some credit to the American people for the high American rates, not just the American politicians and those in whatever job category Fauci and Michael Osterholm are (neither of which gets the criticism they should for their lack of prescient advice).


FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 11/29/20 11:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Sociopath (noun): a person with a personality disorder manifesting itself in antisocial attitudes and behavior and a lack of conscience.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 13121
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 11/29/20 6:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
....not just the American politicians and those in whatever job category Fauci and Michael Osterholm are (neither of which gets the criticism they should for their lack of prescient advice).


You -- and apparently MANY others -- seem to lose sight of the fact that Fauci et. al. are SCIENTISTS. Medical scientists. They are neither psychics nor hold crystal balls. They gave advice according to what data were available at the time, using scientific methods to analyze and re-calculate when needed. This is part & parcel of scientific method in which, I'll grant you, MOST Americans are illiterate. The scientists do not deserve criticism; they acted in good faith, and served no ulterior agendas.

Politicians who advise the injection of bleach, and poo-poo the wearing of masks, long after their efficacy is agreed upon? THESE guys deserve every condemnation they get.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 11/29/20 8:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
tfan wrote:
....not just the American politicians and those in whatever job category Fauci and Michael Osterholm are (neither of which gets the criticism they should for their lack of prescient advice).


You -- and apparently MANY others -- seem to lose sight of the fact that Fauci et. al. are SCIENTISTS. Medical scientists. They are neither psychics nor hold crystal balls. They gave advice according to what data were available at the time, using scientific methods to analyze and re-calculate when needed. This is part & parcel of scientific method in which, I'll grant you, MOST Americans are illiterate. The scientists do not deserve criticism; they acted in good faith, and served no ulterior agendas.


I never heard Fauci quote any scientific study or talk about other pandemics as an example of why he wasn't advising anything be done for the first 1.5 months. Such as when he told NewsMax TV in late January that he didn't think that the virus was a danger to the USA (but did add a "although you never know"). Or when he argued in February against the China travel ban and finally said that "OK, you can ban travel to one country (something we really didn't do - Americans could still come from China with no forced quarantine, which 40,000 did) but you can't ban travel to all countries". Was there data that showed him banning someone from visiting Italy in February was impossible or did he just feel it would upset people and hurt the travel industry? And would that be scientific? Was he looking at data when he told a CNN host in the end of February that we didn't need to start putting in restrictions on activities because the virus was not yet widespread enough? What science and data was Fauci relying on when he joined the March lie that people shouldn't wear masks because they both didn't work, and were needed by medical personnel? What science and data was Osterholm relying on when he said early on that any efforts to stop the virus spread would prove futile and we needed to wait for herd immunity and would see 2.2 million deaths? The 1918 Spanish Flu?

Science is involved in observation and experimentation. We don't get many global pandemics for that to happen. The one thing we did have was what went on in China a month or two ahead of the world. Horrible hospital overcrowding and deaths, followed by an internal travel ban, forced quarantine of anyone arriving from outside the country, and policed lockdowns. And that stuff worked, but the "scientists" didn't appear to observe it and learn from it. I never heard anyone propose, back when maps showed many states with no cases, that travel into those states be restricted with a forced quarantine.

Quote:
Politicians who advise the injection of bleach, and poo-poo the wearing of masks, long after their efficacy is agreed upon? THESE guys deserve every condemnation they get.


Trump never advised the injection of bleach. He wondered if disinfectant and UV light, which he had been just told kill the virus on surfaces, could be used internally by medical personnel and asked Dr Birks if that had been investigated. The Democratic punditry turned that into "He told people to drink bleach". But a non-doctor shouldn't have been musing about potential medical treatments on national TV.

Yes, his failure to embrace masks and social distancing, even after the second peak occurred, was very bad and I was surprised that even he wouldn't budge from that position.




Last edited by tfan on 11/29/20 11:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 13121
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 11/29/20 10:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
I never heard Fauci quote any scientific study or talk about other pandemics....I never heard anyone propose....


"I never heard" sez it all: YOU "never heard" means, for example, that you weren't paying attention, OR you weren't privy to his many discussions and briefings about it. That you "never heard" implies that it just never happened. True or not? Can you present a timeline of every decision he generated or supported throughout the pandemic?

I KNOW I *heard* Fauci explaining his (apparent) contradictions regarding the unfolding of the pandemic with sound logic. You may choose to fault him and his cohorts all you want, but he DOES deserve credit for being one of the most informed, reliable sources our nation -- and the world -- has seen in this mess.

IF NOTHING ELSE, he and his cohorts should be given credit for what we NOW see unfolding: the crushing second wave. He NEVER wavered from predicting that inevitability.

tfan wrote:
Yes, his [Trump's] failure to embrace masks and social distancing, even after the second peak occurred, was very bad and I was surprised that even he wouldn't budge from that position.


"....was surprised...." also speaks volumes on your comprehension of exactly who/what 45 is. Rolling Eyes



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tfan



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PostPosted: 11/29/20 11:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
tfan wrote:
I never heard Fauci quote any scientific study or talk about other pandemics....I never heard anyone propose....


"I never heard" sez it all: YOU "never heard" means, for example, that you weren't paying attention, OR you weren't privy to his many discussions and briefings about it. That you "never heard" implies that it just never happened. True or not? Can you present a timeline of every decision he generated or supported throughout the pandemic?


I presented a timeline of his "nothing to do yet" 1.5 months. A very critical 1.5 months.

Late January - "Don't think the USA has to worry about this virus".
Mid February - "We shouldn't do travel bans".
Mid February - "People shouldn't be frightened, the risk right now, today, is really relatively low".
Late February - "No need for local restrictions until it is more widespread".
and
Early March - "No need to wear masks".

I think Fauci should have been removed when he told (I think) Jake Tapper that the virus needed to get a better spread before we did local restrictions. China had people lying on the floor in the hallway of their hospitals after their outbreak and Fauci is back in America, knowing that it has reached the country, with his fingers crossed.

You once justified this do-nothingness by saying that he (somebody supposedly tasked with dealing with disease transmission) was the one who should take a passive lets-hope-for-the-best path and Trump, the politician, was the one who should be aggressive in fighting the virus.

Quote:
I KNOW I *heard* Fauci explaining his (apparent) contradictions regarding the unfolding of the pandemic with sound logic. You may choose to fault him and his cohorts all you want, but he DOES deserve credit for being one of the most informed, reliable sources our nation -- and the world -- has seen in this mess.


What is the number one insight that you heard Fauci provide that put him up at the top of the world disease folks?

Quote:
IF NOTHING ELSE, he and his cohorts should be given credit for what we NOW see unfolding: the crushing second wave. He NEVER wavered from predicting that inevitability.


Second wave would imply we got out of the first like Australia and European countries. We never got our cases down very low. We got a decline from a peak of about 35K/day in early April to a low of around 20K/day in late May. I think he was wrong to start talking about a second wave when we were in the first wave. It gave people the false impression that we were in good shape and just needed to worry in the fall when that second wave hit.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 11/30/20 10:43 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Well tfan, you're back at it: providing information without sources. I don't know what you've made up or imagined re: Fauci's stances or opinions. You certainly invented what I "once justified".

But. Sourced or not sourced. Let's go with your 'timeline'. Fauci -- LIKE EVERYONE HERE -- was working with a new, unknown quantity in this disease. He had to balance a reasoned, calm perspective, dealing with such things as "How DOES this spread?", and "How dire is our ppe shortage?": Here's an 8 minute timeline in Fauci's own words. AND, all this with a (constantly interrupting) overseer in 45, who quickly took to contradicting him at every turn.

Yes, we ARE in a clearly-defined 'second wave'....some say it's already a THIRD wave. You can source that for yourself. And you'll notice, Fauci is STILL the 'go-to' information source, NOT 45.

And out of mild curiosity....who do YOU view as more informed, and better aware of The Big Picture re: Covid (other than yourself, obviously)?? Who do YOU trust more than Fauci?



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 11/30/20 3:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FWIW, you can pull up a graph of US daily cases on the Hopkins website which clearly shows we're in a third wave. Prior to the current debacle, there were peaks in April and July, each followed by a trough. The peaks are getting bigger and the troughs shallower. In contrast, many other countries are experiencing a second wave.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html


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PostPosted: 11/30/20 7:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
which clearly shows we're in a third wave.

It depends on the definition of a wave is I guess, but the US pattern is very different to most other countries. Most places had troughs that got a lot closer to zero before the next wave rolled in. The US never did that. There was a decline which never even got as low as 50% of the peak before the next surge came.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 12/01/20 6:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wow, I didn't realize Europe was getting hit so much more now than in the spring. And after a significant period of time with very low levels.

The vaccines can't come soon enough. I heard someone connected to the vaccine effort in the USA say that they thought they will have vaccinated enough people for herd immunity by June/July. But the one problem with that was that the figure he gave for herd immunity (something like 65 to 75%) was more than the figure the person interviewing gave for the percentage of people who said they were going to take the vaccine. It appeared that the vaccine person felt or hoped that people who had the coronavirus already would have at least some immunity even without a vaccine.


tfan



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PostPosted: 12/01/20 8:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
Well tfan, you're back at it: providing information without sources. I don't know what you've made up or imagined re: Fauci's stances or opinions. You certainly invented what I "once justified".


I saw this one from 2/18/2020 yesterday, so easy to find. I went by the headline, which is "Anthony Fauci on coronavirus: risk is 'low for the American public'". But I just listened to more of it and after saying that the risk is really relatively very low for the American public, he does add that "this could evolve into a global pandemic" ("which could then have significant implications for us" - ya think) while he is also saying "but we don't want people to be worried now" and "So right now, don't worry about it". This was 11 days after Trump is criticized for telling Bob Woodward that it was serious because it "goes through the air", while he publicly downplayed it.

The video has something that to me demonstrates why I feel these "disease transmission" folks were so impotent in this whole thing.

Fauci: "But that could change, because what's going on outside the United States, particularly obviously in China and other countries where there are travel-related cases. That this could evolve, and I think it would be unrealistic to deny that, that this could evolve into a global pandemic".

He later also says "we're taking it very seriously" and "it could be a substantial threat".

And: "We know we have 15 cases in the United States, 13 of which are travel, 2 or which are the spouses of travellers".

The first case in this country was on 1/21/2020 (traveled to Wuhan China). My county had its first case on 1/31/2020 (traveled to Wuhan China). So Fauci is talking about "travel-related cases' in other countries and ignoring:

a) as he later admits: we have travel-related cases
b) we have tons of people who are still traveling
c) America is a big spread out country, but where people travel a lot internally.
d) no mention of quarantining travelers

He's telling us not to worry for now, and yet acknowledging that the virus spreads from travel - and ignoring we are still traveling. He not only doesn't advocate we stop travel (or travel with quarantine as some countries did) - he doesn't want people to worry about traveling. He actually isn't taking it "very seriously" in my book, because he isn't advocating stopping the one thing that he has just said spreads the virus - travel.

I saw a TED presentation by a woman who was in this "infection disease control" line of work and at some point, she says what these people all seem to think: "you can't ban travel" with the reason being something like "too bad for the economy".

Fauci also says that the CDC says "we're not having, to our knowledge, undetected spread in our communities" (it is unfortunate that the CDC both botched their test and refused the WHO test kit). I am no doctor/scientist so maybe I am missing something - but what exactly did he and the CDC think would allow it to spread while traveling, but not in communities once someone has contracted it during travel and then returned home? Although he did say the CDC was going to do some testing to see if there was any local transmission taking place. At that point, they must have been hoping that the 13 USA travelers all got it from sleeping from someone who had it. At least I don't know what else they could have been thinking about with regard to getting it in Italy but not spreading it back in Detroit other than to your spouse.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Lhy2FgkP0Yw" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Quote:
And out of mild curiosity....who do YOU view as more informed, and better aware of The Big Picture re Covid (other than yourself, obviously)?? Who do YOU trust more than Fauci?


I didn't hear anyone in the USA who I would say was advocating proper action - doing things from the start. Sometime in February, I saw cell phone video on YouTube or Twitter that showed how bad things were in Wuhan, China. Both in the hospital and with regard to measures taken to quarantine people (e.g. welding apartment doors shut) and stop travel into and out of the entire province as well as foreigners who couldn't get out. And news reports on the rush to build a new hospital facility in 2 weeks. Was very alarming. But then no one in the USA was talking about taking any serious measures or a big calamity looming, so I was optimistic that it was gonna be OK. That was all of February. And right around the first of March, I went looking for details on the first case in my area and found the old news report, and watched the press conference from 1/31/2020. The health department head said that they had been monitoring the situation in China closely because "we have so many people who travel for business and pleasure". And something about daily meetings on the matter. And what had come out of that? Didn't seem like anything. The first case was a guy who had been to Wuhan before they locked it down. He wasn't met at the airport and told to quarantine. There was no mass cellphone message saying that people like him should contact the health department and also quarantine. He just went about his business and when he felt sick he went to the doctor and only after testing positive did the health department find out about him. The fact that they weren't even looking for Wuhan travelers killed my optimism. But I think it took them starting to ban large gatherings in early March before I fully realized that we were screwed.


FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
Posts: 2098



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PostPosted: 12/01/20 11:43 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Wow, I didn't realize Europe was getting hit so much more now than in the spring. And after a significant period of time with very low levels.

The vaccines can't come soon enough. I heard someone connected to the vaccine effort in the USA say that they thought they will have vaccinated enough people for herd immunity by June/July. But the one problem with that was that the figure he gave for herd immunity (something like 65 to 75%) was more than the figure the person interviewing gave for the percentage of people who said they were going to take the vaccine. It appeared that the vaccine person felt or hoped that people who had the coronavirus already would have at least some immunity even without a vaccine.


Right now, we have increasing case reports of infected people who already had COVID once in the spring, confirmed by PCR both times, and we've also documented the fall of antibody levels to negligible or undetectable levels several months after an active infection. We have NO information about long-term, i.e. one year, efficacy of any of these vaccines under consideration. Who knows if they produce an immune response that's more persistent than what the virus itself elicited? Without that info, talking about immunizations in June and how many people get the vaccine is just wasted breath.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 13121
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 12/01/20 5:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Quote:
And out of mild curiosity....who do YOU view as more informed, and better aware of The Big Picture re Covid (other than yourself, obviously)?? Who do YOU trust more than Fauci?


I didn't hear anyone in the USA who I would say was advocating proper action - doing things from the start.


Precisely. You/me/everyonelse can critique with the benefit of great hindsight. However: NOBODY had that kind of foresight at that time. Remember? What NOW appears to be prescient information was parsed/doubted/overthought from the start. Fauci at least had the scientific mind to reshape his thinking, and dispense *better* information accordingly. Unlike our Idiot In Chief who STILL thinks it's not a big deal, and isn't even concerning himself with it anymore.

For context, just go back and look at the pages of the Corona Tracking thread, and how folks like Glenn consistently cast doubt and aspersions on the plethora of theories and missteps of those at the forefront. This has been a bumpy ride, to say the least, and who do you know that has been better at trying to consistently, intelligently present the best current info, and providing the best theories on the pandemic's outcomes than Fauci?



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