RebKell's Junkie Boards

[Ex-Ref]

NOT who you want to win, who WILL win.

Let's see how we do vs. the rest of the nation and pollsters.

And, no, I'm not putting in an "other" choice.

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"Women are judged on their success, men on their potential. It’s time we started believing in the potential of women." —Muffet McGraw

“Thank you for showing the fellas that you've got more balls than them,” Haley said, to cheers from the crowd.

[jammerbirdi]

Definitely believe Trump wins a second term. It should be close. And much like 2016, we’ll likely know before we go to bed tonight.

One thing the media (mainstream and otherwise) is not covering as an issue at all in this election is, I believe, ironically, the main driver of what I think will be a Trump victory and that is not Covid or the economy. It’s the rioting, the unrest, the violent takeover of cities, the talk of defunding police, all of it. Enough people want to see law and order restored right now I think to elect Richard Nixon as president. We’ll see.

An interesting thing to watch is going to be California numbers for Trump. I’m also predicting a big increase there over 2016. Should impact popular vote results. Again. I can’t see the future. We don’t have long to wait now. Be well and stay safe. Honestly, it doesn’t matter all that much who is President right now.

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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[J-Spoon]

I don't want to get blind sided again but I believe Biden will win.

My theory without going too deeply in to politics is this

In 2016 there was a referendum on more of the same vs something new. Trump represented something new so besides his rabid base he also got a lot of independents who while they may not have liked him, like the idea of change over staying the same.

In 2016 many people thought Clinton would win, some people really didn't like Clinton, some people even thought the establishment rigged the election against Sanders and that brought turn out down among the left.

In 2020 the referendum is now against 4 years of Trump. While his base may be more passionate than ever many of the independent voters who decided to give him a chance have had buyers remorse. Combine that with Biden while maybe not driving the enthusiasm bus, is also not driving voters away in the way the Clinton may have, especially among the working class in the mid west. (full disclosure I personal don't have a problem with Hillary this is just my simplified perception/explanation of what I think happened and will happen).

In 2020 the left while maybe not energized by the specific candidate is super energized to get rid of Trump there will be huge turn out. Quite frankly there would be huge turn out from the left if the candidate was a broom with a sign that said not Trump. Actually that is pretty much what Biden is.

And finally while Trump will still get huge numbers from most of his base he will lose some of the independents who chose him as an unknown quantity over the known quantity in 2016 and he will also lose the Grandma vote. A lot of Grandma's were able to give him a pass on his quaint racism and sexism because they grew up in another time and it wasn't as shocking to them as the young left and they hated the Clinton's, but this is where the virus comes into play. Grandma doesn't feel safe going into town not because of unrest, but because she could catch a virus that could kill her, or her husband. Lots of Grandma's haven't seen their kids or Grand kids in months because it is too dangerous to come over. And lots of Grandma's who watch the news everyday trying to figure out what is going on with the virus and the leadership and messaging has been so poor that they can't take it anymore. They are literally being told by the government that their lives don't matter, and that nice Biden fellow looks like he cares and will try in a way that Trump has failed at. So while the virus might not be important to younger demographic the seniors do care and it is causing them turn on Trump in a way that all his other faults never did.

So in 2020 Trump losing some independents, losing some Grandmas, and the left being energized and united in 2020 to a fever pitch is why I think Biden will win.

(Because of this I have Biden winning back Penn, Mich and Minn., and possibly flipping Florida and Arizona as well getting him both the popular vote and close to 300 electoral college votes)

My other bleaker scenario is Biden picks up a lot of votes in places like TX and Georgia compared to Hillary, but not enough to win them and turn out in classically blue states like Cal, NY, NJ, MA etc is super high but Trump squeaks by in most of the swing states, maybe Biden flips Penn and Mich but Trump holds onto the rest leading to Biden winning the popular vote by almost 10 million but Trump winning the electoral college with say 272 to 268 which would be my nightmare, outside of a completely contested election the drags us into 2021 with no certain outcome.

[Shades]

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://youtube.com/embed/Rg4ldloe8EU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

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Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned

[FrozenLVFan]

We need a side poll asking how long it will be before we have official election results. Given the numbers of absentee ballots and the current chaos in our postal system, it could be days. The post office declined to perform the court-ordered sweep of their facilities for undelivered ballots this afternoon.

[craigmont]

Biden's polling has been consistently 52-54% with Trump consistently 42-44%. that's a whole different ballgame from 2016.

[Howee]

[Ex-Ref]

And Atlanta vote counting is being delayed by a burst pipe at State Farm Arena!

And the weirdness of 2020 continues!!!!

_________________
"Women are judged on their success, men on their potential. It’s time we started believing in the potential of women." —Muffet McGraw

“Thank you for showing the fellas that you've got more balls than them,” Haley said, to cheers from the crowd.

[Ex-Ref]

I'd be shocked if Biden wins Michigan unless it's Detroit that carries him.

At one poll site, and I'm guessing others as well, there was a tent with people gathering signatures to recall Gov. Whitmer (D). LOTS of people are pretty pissed at her over COVID - 19 closings.

_________________
"Women are judged on their success, men on their potential. It’s time we started believing in the potential of women." —Muffet McGraw

“Thank you for showing the fellas that you've got more balls than them,” Haley said, to cheers from the crowd.

[jammerbirdi]

Right now the election looks so much different than 2016 because of early voting and mail in ballots.

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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[J-Spoon]

Florida be screwing up my prediction

[jammerbirdi]

I’m calling this. Trump is re-elected.

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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[J-Spoon]

Oh shit! Oh shit! oh shit!

[pilight]

Maybe the Democrats should quit rigging their primaries to favor weak candidates

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I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[Ex-Ref]

I went to bed four years ago with Clinton leading and feeling pretty safe that I would wake up on Wednesday to the first woman president of the United States. I woke up in the middle of the night and turned on the TV to see that Trump was the projected winner.

Now I'm going to go to bed having no clue who is really leading. Sure, USAToday, CNN and Fox all have Biden projected to have 209, 192 and 223 electoral votes respectively, and Trump 118, 114 and 148 votes. I take no comfort in that. After all, I was one of the three to vote for Trump in this poll. 😢

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"Women are judged on their success, men on their potential. It’s time we started believing in the potential of women." —Muffet McGraw

“Thank you for showing the fellas that you've got more balls than them,” Haley said, to cheers from the crowd.

[Richard 77]

[jammerbirdi]

Not as confident in my early call for Trump. Still think he’ll win but I’m going to retract on that one. I needed some chips and dip to bring me to my senses.

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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[jammerbirdi]

[Shades]

Wisconsin hasn’t counted any early votes yet. Keep that in mind. Early votes tend to favor democrats. That’s why autocrat Trump wants to stop counting the votes on election night. Pennsylvania might take until Thursday to be counted. Wish it wasn’t so close so Trump wouldn’t contest, that weasel.

Disappointed Graham has made it through.
Disappointed the Senate is leaning back to Republican control.

_________________
Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned

[jammerbirdi]

Biden to speak soon. This is now somewhat reminiscent of 2000. Except I had alcohol to lean on that night.

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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[J-Spoon]

Its looking a little closer but

but Biden still has to win 2 of 3 of Wisc, Mich and Penn.

and hold onto Ariz and Nevada

[taropatch]

[jammerbirdi]

I’m sleepier than Sleepy Joe himself. So my prediction of knowing the outcome before bedtime in California is a lost cause.

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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[J-Spoon]

Trumps remarks sometime he just can't get out of his own way, he is ahead in all of the remaining swing states could have just said "we are way ahead and we are going to win, wow would it be weird if we lost all of these huge leads" sort of setting up his talking points but instead he just jumped the shark said he won, the left is going to try and steal it now, and he wants all the counts to stop (technically he said all voting stopped but he meant counting because well at 215 am all voting had stopped so he meant all coating except in Arizona where he might catch up) and he'll take it to the Supreme Court. So instead of casting suspicion on the other side he now looks like the one trying to steal it, when he might just win it anyway. Welcome to the next few crazy days.

You know what he said is crazy when even the Fox News people were like "yeah he hasn't won yet, no one has called those states for him yet, he shouldn't declare victory and there are more votes to count." They actually seemed disappointed because it was looking like he was going to win anyway.

[hyperetic]

The US has more shitty people than I realized.

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