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Home vs Road games in the Bubble

 
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Shades



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 1:02 am    ::: Home vs Road games in the Bubble Reply Reply with quote

So even though every game is played on a neutral court, the outcomes are similar to actual Home-Road results.


Is it the home court sounds and music making the players better at “home”, or could it be the home jerseys? It’s pretty fascinating. Only the lowly Liberty have a better road record.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 9:27 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades this is one of the most interesting things I've ever seen on this board. Really kind of flies in the face of logic. If this holds up there may be a lot academic studies trying to explain it. Wonder if it true for the NBA as well. As you pointed out the Uni and music/crowd noise is the only difference between home and road but maybe that's all that matter.....



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sithinfiltrator



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 12:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I have actually been pretty floored by this info. Like folks have said, it flies in the face of reason. But it is obviously statistically significant. Front office people should really be looking into what it is about home court that makes this much of a difference. So many variables such as crowd noise and travel times have been removed. And still THIS much difference. Seems like more of the little things make a BIG difference.

-Lisa



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myrtle



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 12:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It would be interesting to compare shooting % from this year and previous years. Logically you would think they would be higher since the players should totally know the rims - both 'home' and 'away'.



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Shades



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 1:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

sithinfiltrator wrote:
Front office people should really be looking into what it is about home court that makes this much of a difference. So many variables such as crowd noise and travel times have been removed.

-Lisa


In case I wasn’t clear in my post, they do reproduce the home DJ sets, which tend to be repetitious and familiar. I suppose it can make a player feel like they’re actually at their own home stadium. Not sure if all the teams are using their own DJ sets, but I would assume so.



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Richyyy



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 1:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
It would be interesting to compare shooting % from this year and previous years. Logically you would think they would be higher since the players should totally know the rims - both 'home' and 'away'.

The percentages are a little better than usual, but not by much. Pretty much within the usual fluctuations from year to year.

There've been a bunch of articles written about the home/away stuff, including by Chantel Jennings at The Athletic and Megdal at FiveThirtyEight (it's also in my upcoming piece this week). It's weird, and hard to ignore at this point, but no one's come up with a good answer for why it's happening.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 1:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I suppose the first thing that needs to be done is to verify that it is statistically significant. There are probably enough games now that the sample size big enough, but most teams have about 8 games left so we'll have more data then.

I'm coming up with about 62% of the games won by the home team. I thought normally its about 55%, but I've never checked it. Bizarre. Maybe this proves WNBA fans are not as good at cheering on their teams as a phony soundtrack.....I wonder if cardboard cutout fans would improve the home court advantage? (Of course, some teams would need to use cutouts of empty seats.)



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Shades



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 1:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

There is no definitive “answer” per se, but my theory on what might be happening is as good as any I expect we’ll see.



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craigmont



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 1:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I've also noticed that they sit at the 'home' and 'visiting' benches.


craigmont



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 1:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It would be funny if they made the 'road' team sit around together in a room like an airport terminal for several hours the night before a game.


Shades



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 2:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

craigmont wrote:
I've also noticed that they sit at the 'home' and 'visiting' benches.


Are the home benches more deluxe? Smile Look pretty identical.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 2:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Another factor - home teams have some of their games televised in their home city - so maybe they try harder?



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Shades



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 3:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
Another factor - home teams have some of their games televised in their home city - so maybe they try harder?


I thought about that too for a minute but dismissed it because few players truly play for their home town. I doubt this is something they’re thinking about much. I doubt they even know who’s broadcasting unless it’s something big like ABC. I could see getting up for ABC games. I should probably do a study on that before some WNBA writer steals the idea from me.

But most of these young players love music so I think they’re responsive to the familiar stuff.
https://www.blhsnews.com/opinion/2015/09/29/how-does-music-affect-our-lives/

Also, newcomers to teams aren’t that familiar with their team’s local DJ set, so maybe an effect from the set would most likely be less prevalent among teams with the most newcomers, like the Liberty who have a better road record than home record.



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 4:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

they also play at times their home audiences can watch, no? this has been very apparent to me as a storm fan who lives in cst--still having to wait til 9 for some games. time of day has to be a huge factor.


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PostPosted: 08/26/20 4:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cass wrote:
they also play at times their home audiences can watch, no? this has been very apparent to me as a storm fan who lives in cst--still having to wait til 9 for some games. time of day has to be a huge factor.


I think that’s a big factor for a normal season outside the bubble, but all the players should now be assimilated to the east coast time zone. Do the west coast teams maintain an internal clock that helps them play better later at night?



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 5:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cass wrote:
they also play at times their home audiences can watch, no? this has been very apparent to me as a storm fan who lives in cst--still having to wait til 9 for some games. time of day has to be a huge factor.

That's definitely one of the things I've mentioned in discussions about this (and the article coming out tomorrow). Most of the east coast team's game, including nearly all their home games, tip off at 7pm ET. Most of the west coast ones at 10pm ET. So I can see there being a small benefit to being attuned to the tip-off time for your home games.

If anyone wants to pick out whether the home/road discrepancy stays the same in only east-east and west-west matchups, go right ahead Smile.



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PostPosted: 08/26/20 6:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

My vote is the music. Presumably the teams have previously chosen their own music because it helps them get "up" for their home games...now when they hear it in the wubble it subconsciously invokes the same response.


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PostPosted: 08/27/20 2:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
craigmont wrote:
I've also noticed that they sit at the 'home' and 'visiting' benches.


Are the home benches more deluxe? Smile Look pretty identical.


They're at different ends of the court. Very Happy


root_thing



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PostPosted: 08/27/20 9:32 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Walt Hopkins mentioned that the teams have fixed time slots for practice and testing. Even if they play the late 10 PM games, the next day’s schedule remains the same. Usually, the team gets back to the hotel around 1:30 AM after late games. Because everyone is still amped up, they probably don’t get to bed until somewhere around 3:00 AM. Nonetheless, people still have to get up in the morning if they want to use the practice facility or get to testing on time. So if the entire schedule – games, practice, and everything else -- is based on a team’s normal time zone, that could certainly create more of a normal home/road feeling.



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PostPosted: 09/13/20 11:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Did I do the math right? The final record ended up being 66-66?
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PostPosted: 09/14/20 12:04 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

awhom111 wrote:
Did I do the math right? The final record ended up being 66-66?

Looks right to me.
(Would be simpler to confirm if the WNBA had updated the standings on their website, but 6+ hours since the regular season has been over and they still haven't. Rolling Eyes )



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PostPosted: 09/14/20 1:22 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
awhom111 wrote:
Did I do the math right? The final record ended up being 66-66?

Looks right to me.
(Would be simpler to confirm if the WNBA had updated the standings on their website, but 6+ hours since the regular season has been over and they still haven't. Rolling Eyes )

It's so dumb that they've vastly improved their stats section and then not linked any of the main site to it. The scores on the main site still link to the crappy box scores (there are much better ones via the stats section), and the standings are still separate old ones as well. The standings on the stats pages - https://stats.wnba.com/standings/ - are auto-updated moments after games end.

To the original question, yes, I got 66-66 too. Which is hilarious after all the articles about home-court advantage midway through. Of course, the conspiracy theorist would now ask what the hell changed halfway through to turn it into a road-court advantage...?



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awhom111



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PostPosted: 09/14/20 11:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
Luuuc wrote:
awhom111 wrote:
Did I do the math right? The final record ended up being 66-66?

Looks right to me.
(Would be simpler to confirm if the WNBA had updated the standings on their website, but 6+ hours since the regular season has been over and they still haven't. Rolling Eyes )

It's so dumb that they've vastly improved their stats section and then not linked any of the main site to it. The scores on the main site still link to the crappy box scores (there are much better ones via the stats section), and the standings are still separate old ones as well. The standings on the stats pages - https://stats.wnba.com/standings/ - are auto-updated moments after games end.

To the original question, yes, I got 66-66 too. Which is hilarious after all the articles about home-court advantage midway through. Of course, the conspiracy theorist would now ask what the hell changed halfway through to turn it into a road-court advantage...?


I know how this managed to sneak up on us. By the time the games started on Thursday, home teams were still 65-55. The home team won the first game of the day... and then the home teams lost the last 11 games of the season. I suppose Connecticut, which had 4 more wins as the road team than the home team (obviously the fault of Uncasville) has a reasonable chance at 12 and then we will see with Washington.
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