RebKell's Junkie Boards

[calbearman76]

I am opening this thread now to address gambling on the WNBA this season. As the season gets closer I will post actual odds on the sport as well as other items of interest. I may even make up some odds that are available in other sports but are not widely available for the WNBA.

If you have any questions about WNBA betting or areas you would like me to cover please post your interests.

[Richyyy]

Given that asking this is another thread led to a hissy fit, I'll move it here:

[mavcarter]

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wrote:

Or maybe said poster should quit being a nuisance when people don’t agree?

[calbearman76]

Richyy posted a question on another thread:

"calbearman76, what stops you from going to one of the many, many, many gambling websites that are available over here and betting on them? Do they not work from US IP addresses (although a VPN could get round that fairly easily)? Or do US credit cards not work to set up an account? Or is it literally just that you can do it but it would be illegal to do so?

Honestly intrigued by how the US gets around the fact that a huge percentage of gambling is now done online."

I was just talking about legal wagering. It is illegal to place wagers on sports other than with a legal sportsbook, or across state lines. There are several international sportsbooks that will accept accounts from US residents (or help them to evade US law).

Bets can be placed over the phone providing that you have geolocation that shows you are in the same state as the sportsbooks.

[SpaceJunkie]

I am outraged knowing that I am probably screwed being in Minnesota! I hate everything now! The system is rigged against me!

[calbearman76]

[calbearman76]

Liz Cambage dramatically affects the odds to win the championship. With Wilson, McBride and McCoughtry this is still a good team but without Liz inside the Aces are perhaps 6th or 7th.

[calbearman76]

With only 8 days before the start of the season it is time to start thinking about the impact of playing in small gyms, playing in a bubble with no travel and playing without fans. Here are 5 questions that I would like people to consider:

1) Playing in a small gym - Assuming that both courts are set up the same way I believe that shooting should be slightly improved. The shooting background, with a wall (or curtain) a few feet behind the basket will be consistent. From watching games in holiday tournaments it often takes a while for players too get used to a background and as a result shooting often improves in the second half of the first game a team plays.

2) Playing in a bubble. This could be good for players coming together as a team, but I don't see any inherent changes which would affect odds. There is a chance that this might have an impact as the season progresses for individual teams.

3) No travel. This is much more of a season long impact. West teams historically have had a much larger home-road discrepancy than East teams. For instance last season teams in the West were 30 games better at home than on the road while the East was only 14 games better, and the East is skewed by Connecticut which accounted for half (7 games) of the difference. For those that have gone there, the Mohegan Sun is not close to a major airport so travel there is more difficult. This year there is no travel, no back-to-backs and so scheduling will have very little impact. Generally teams travelling on short rest play weaker defense (although this trend has been stronger in the NBA than the WNBA.

4) Playing without fans. I don't know what kind of impact this might have.

I'm curious as to what others might think. Do you believe that games would be higher or lower scoring, or do you see any other potential impact from the way games will be played. Also do you believe that the shorter schedule will help older players vs. younger players or any other issues to be considered from a betting perspective.

I'm interested in your thoughts.

[ClayK]

Very interesting questions ...

I think the walls behind the backboards will definitely improve shooting. Even though most of these pros have shot for years without a wall close to the basket, it's going to help -- it's like pro golfers having softer greens.

I do think the lack of travel will have an impact, and more on older players and teams. Presumably the bubble will supply better rest (no early morning wakeup calls), less hassle and more opportunity to get massages, etc. For all players, I think it will lead to more consistency. (The officials will also be better rested and less hassled.)

Along that line, I think playing on the same court all the time will make players more comfortable and again, more consistent.

As for lack of fans, I think that depends on the player's personality. Some players are energized by crowds; others are indifferent and a few might even play better. Tough call on this one ...

_________________
Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā

[pilight]

[Randy]

[Richyyy]

[ClayK]

[Richyyy]

[calbearman76]

I don't often say this but today I really wish I was in New Jersey.

Draft Kings has posted over/under win totals for the WNBA season and I believe at least 4 of the lines are significantly off.

Seattle 15.5 (over +110, under -143)
Los Angeles 14.5 (over +115, under -155)
Phoenix 12.5 (over -115, under -115)
Washington 12.5 (over +110, under +143)
Las Vegas 11.5 (over -134, under EV)
New York 10.5 (over -115, under -115)
Minnesota 10.5 (over +120, under -167)
Chicago 9.5 (over -134, under EV)
Indiana 7.5 (over -134, under EV)
Dallas 7.5 (over -115, under -115)
Atlanta 6.5 (over -115, under -115)

No line was shown for Connecticut.

The bet is simple, does a team win more or less than the number of games shown. The odds are shown in parentheses. If you believe Seattle will win more than 15 games you would bet $100 to win $110(+110). If you believe they will win win 15 or less you would bet $143 to win $100(-143).

While I like several of these lines, my 4 favorites are:

Washington under 12.5 - The Mystics have only Meeseman returning from last year's starters. As good as Mike Thibault is this team looks like it will struggle to even make the playoffs.

New York under 10.5 - Unless Sabrina Ionescu is the second coming of Oscar Robertson and lifts everybody else to a heretofore unseen level of productivity the Liberty are not a .500 club. I can only think that people in the New York area want to bet on their team because the line makes no sense.

Chicago over 9.5 I am not as high on the Sky as some people and I believe the loss of Jantel Lavendar will be a concern, but this is a team that won 20 games last season and has almost everyone else back. Azure Stevens fits the team well.

Indiana over 7.5. Teaira McCowan should be improved. Dupree, Cox and Achonwa complete a solid front line. And with Viviens coming back the Fever looks like a team that will fight for the playoffs.


Fanduel has posted futures odds to win the WNBA:

Seattle 9/2
Los Angeles 9/2
Washington 9/2
Las Vegas 5/1
Connecticut 6/1
Phoenix 17/2
Chicago 13/1
New York 13/1
Minnesota 27/1
Indiana 55/1
Dallas 70/1
Atlanta 70/1

Seattle looks like a steal at 9/2. They are certainly the best team coming into the season. LA is also strong and Phoenix can compete if Skyler Diggins returns to form after giving birth, but barring injuries the Storm should be at or near the top all year.

[SpaceJunkie]

[pilight]

I would for sure go under on LA. Playing almost every game on 1-2 days rest will mean lots of Parker-struggle or lots of Poison Parker on the bench.

I'd definitely go over on Dallas, they're going to be much improved.

I'd also go over on Atlanta, because I'm an impossible homer.

_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[RP]

Unfortunately, the NY line is juiced at Bovada (under 10 wins at -150), but I was able to get Washington under 15.5 at -115 and Seattle at +500 before those were pulled. I also have Connecticut under 11.5 at -115 and Dallas over 6.5 at -125.

Anyone that can bet via DK should hammer NY under 10.5.

[calbearman76]

The sportsbooks are very wary of the WNBA it seems. Less than 19 hours before the first game and no books in Nevada have posted odds, At least DraftKings has posted lines (but no totals) for tomorrow's games:

Seattle 6.5 New York
Los Angeles 3 Phoenix
Washington 2.5 Indiana

Seattle is my top play. The line is understandably short given that no one really knows how the games will play out in the Wubble. But from all indications the Storm are the best team in the league with a core of players that have played together (even if Stewart and Bird were out last season. Meanwhile the Liberty are a complete unknown, but does not have a single starter that could start for Seattle (sorry Sabrina, you still have to show something in the WNBA)

I was really looking forward to taking Phoenix but the line is lower than I expected. If the teams play as I expect even 3 points would be a gift 2 weeks into the season, but this is the first game for SDS with her new team. I lean to the Sparks in game 1.

Another game where I expected a higher line (and indeed the early lines in some books were as high as 4), Washington is only a 2.5 point favorite over a Fever team that missed the playoffs last year. I like Indiana, but with the short line and no Lauren Cox I can't quite make it a play. Lean to Fever.

Hopefully lines will be posted in Nevada this evening, including totals.

[calbearman76]

[Richyyy]

I know gamblers will bet on anything, but it's interesting that the WNBA is still at that level where there's enough interest for the books to be scared but they can still get things (what appears to be) pretty wrong. I thought we'd largely moved past the point where they screwed up WNBA odds to that extent a few years ago (although this season has obviously been chaos).

_________________
Independent WNBA coverage: http://www.wnbalien.com/

[calbearman76]

The Las Vegas books finally put lines up this morning and they show the game that the earlier books got most wrong.

Seattle 11 New York Over/Under 155
Los Angeles 3 Phoenix 153
Washington 2 Indiana 163

The Seattle game looked off when I saw it. I had made the line 10. At 11 I don't see value. Washington continues to drop which makes total sense. The Mystics are the defending champs, but so as not to tarnish their legacy perhaps this year's edition should just be called the Washington Basketball Team.

As for the totals, I like Seattle over. The Liberty have made no secret about their desire to go up tempo. While the 4th quarter may see Seattle sit on a lead I still like the over.

I also like Washington under. This one is a little more guesswork. Indian will probably look to run but I believe that Thibault may try to slow the game down a bit. Even without Sanders and Cloud, I believe the Mystics will focus on defense.

I lean toward Los Angeles over the small number, but I can't make it a play. Both teams could feel comfortable playing half court basketball so I will just watch.

[calbearman76]

The WNBA lines continue to move. Part of this is due to generally lower limits which allow the books to more quickly address bad lines. Seattle has moved up to 14.5 as bettors aren't impressed with Sabrina et al. The Washington total has moved down to 159.5

[calbearman76]

Game 1 of the WNBA season sure had betting excitement. The total went down to the wire as the game sat at 151 with 1 minute to go, but a 3 point play by Sami Whitcomb with 37 seconds to go secured the over. It also guaranteed that Seattle would cover the final line of 14.5

[calbearman76]

I am having significant computer problems so I will not be able to post here until I get it fixed