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Does it make sense to declare early?

 
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ClayK



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 9:57 am    ::: Does it make sense to declare early? Reply Reply with quote

The primary logic to going into the WNBA draft, for the most part, is financial. Prior to this year, there was between $200,000 and $250,000 on the table for a lottery pick, and maybe $150,000 for a fairly high pick.

That money could never be recouped, so it made sense to grab it.

But with Covid-19, of course, the equation has changed dramatically. The WNBA will hold a draft, but will there be a season? No one knows. If the season is truncated, will salaries be cut? No one knows.

It's clear the economic impacts will be enormous. Will the European model of professional sports survive? No one knows. Will European sporting events be permitted by late 2020? No one knows.

On the flip side, staying in school brings stability, health care, a degree and a year to evaluate what could be a much different professional basketball landscape.

So even though Satou Sabally, to name one, had every intention of turning pro, now it may not make nearly as much sense. If the money isn't there, why do it? The NCAA season is likely to be played, in one form or another, and so scholarships, etc., should still be in place.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 10:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Why is the NCAA season any more likely to be played than the European leagues?



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root_thing



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 10:59 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yep, it's called a pandemic for a reason. And everyone is suffering from the financial strain.



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 12:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Even if the NCAA season is eventually cancelled, it probably won't be until early fall. A player who elects to stay in school will already be enrolled, on a scholarship, and able to complete her degree +/- a masters, although likely online. I can't imagine schools will pull scholarships in that event. I also bet the NCAA will grant all those players another year of eligibility. That's all a tremendous upside.

If the player is drafted, and the WNBA season is cancelled which seems likely, and the overseas leagues are in a shambles due either to the pandemic or the economic fallout which seems equally likely, then what does she do? Her NCAA eligibility is gone. That's a tremendous risk.


Richyyy



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 12:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It is possible that if a player renounced their remaining eligibility, was drafted, and then there was no WNBA season, the NCAA could let them go back to school. Would be good to get a ruling on that before the draft (or ideally before the declaration date 10 days earlier).



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Randy



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 1:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
It is possible that if a player renounced their remaining eligibility, was drafted, and then there was no WNBA season, the NCAA could let them go back to school. Would be good to get a ruling on that before the draft (or ideally before the declaration date 10 days earlier).


They would be making it easier for a player to declare in that case. I don't think they want to do that.



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root_thing



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 1:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I remember an interview with John Calapari where he said top recruits get guaranteed 4-year scholarships. Even if they leave early, which is what usually happens with top male prospects, players can return to finish college on full scholarship. That may be true with some of the top women recruits too. In that case, they can declare for the draft, get picked and still go back to school for academics if there is no basketball being played anywhere. Obviously, this applies to very few people, but it may be relevant to someone like Chennedy Carter (Hoopgurlz #6).

As far as being granted an extra year of eligibility goes, I doubt anyone who seriously considers leaving school in 2020 wants to be playing college basketball in 2021-22.



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J-Spoon



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 2:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Declaring early is also about the last few years of your career financially not just the first

in the W you get to all of the minimum years to increase salary a year earlier and you probably add an addition year over seas to your career as well for top players the extra year could be 215K in the W and 500K over seas

and as is being proven right now you can do most of your college course work online so leaving early doesn't have to mean sacrificing a degree.


Richyyy



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 2:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

But as pilight has often pointed out over the years when this conversation has come up, leaving does mean joining the adult world a year earlier. These kids may not have quite the typical college experience, due to the amount of time they spend in the gym, on the court, or travelling to games, but they're still basically messing around with their friends without many responsibilities. Plenty of people when they graduate would love to go back to the days where they weren't worrying about bills and rent and taking care of themselves like an adult. You may still get the degree, but you don't get to go back to that.



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myrtle



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 3:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
Richyyy wrote:
It is possible that if a player renounced their remaining eligibility, was drafted, and then there was no WNBA season, the NCAA could let them go back to school. Would be good to get a ruling on that before the draft (or ideally before the declaration date 10 days earlier).


They would be making it easier for a player to declare in that case. I don't think they want to do that.


It would also leave schools up in the air re: scholies. If a player declares, the school may offer another kid that scholie, then be caught in the middle with no scholie for the one who already declared!



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Shades



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 3:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:

If the player is drafted, and the WNBA season is cancelled which seems likely,


The boss lady says playing games this season is paramount. I’m going with the boss lady on this one.

Quote:
“Playing games this year is paramount,” Engelbert said. “Even if the league must play in empty arenas for safety’s sake,” she said, she and her team are reimagining what experiencing live sports might look and feel like.



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FrozenLVFan



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 4:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Playing games in empty arenas only provides social distancing for the fans, not for the players, coaches, team staff, refs, TV/radio crews, cleaning crews, etc. And then there's the travel issue. I'd bet there's at least one stakeholder group who won't buy into this at all.


toad455



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 4:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
Playing games in empty arenas only provides social distancing for the fans, not for the players, coaches, team staff, refs, TV/radio crews, cleaning crews, etc. And then there's the travel issue. I'd bet there's at least one stakeholder group who won't buy into this at all.


As I just posted in another thread, the NBA is considering having its playoffs in select cities(Vegas, New York, the Bahamas?) with multiple teams playing at one venue. The WNBA might be looking into the same thing. I suggested Mohegan Sun & Everett(Angels of the Winds Arena). Maybe four arenas and divide the schedule into quarters? Wintrust in Chicago is an option plus College Park in Dallas. Small enough arenas where playing without fans won't look bad on TV.



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GEF34



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PostPosted: 03/28/20 10:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

In some cases like Satou Sabally who will leave Oregon with a degree this season (from what I’ve been told), it may not make sense to her to go back to Oregon, if she doesn’t want a minor, another bachelor’s degree or a master’s degree. As for ones who will not get a degree at the end of the semester/quarter they can and most likely will, unless there is some kind of bit falling out and other issues, go back and get their degrees paid for when they decide to go back whether it’s next year, in 5 years, in 20 years they can still get it paid for, so it’s not like choosing to leave early means they would have to pay for the rest of the degree themselves now.

I don’t get why people say players shouldn’t leave early, they need to finish school before going pro, but yet if a player has played 4 years and didn’t graduate no one ever says they shouldn’t go pro they need to get their degree when it’s the exact same thing, they are both leaving the university to go pro without a degree.



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ClayK



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PostPosted: 03/29/20 9:50 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

And of course Sabally, unlike the other candidates, is from Europe, and may be more comfortable returning home.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 03/29/20 10:57 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
And of course Sabally, unlike the other candidates, is from Europe, and may be more comfortable returning home.


Germany seems to be one of the safest places now outside of the ISS or China.



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PUmatty



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PostPosted: 03/29/20 9:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Another thought: Some people don't like school or college.


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PostPosted: 03/29/20 11:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

For some people, yes as a professional athlete. But I would only say that given they’ve already gotten their degree. Especially considering what’s going on with Covid-19. Who knows what the landscape of professional sports looks like for the next year or two.



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PostPosted: 03/30/20 7:04 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Until so many women professional options opened up, the primary reason women busted their rear to play college ball was for the scholarships. Now Scholarships seem to be secondary to going to a program that will lead to a professional career.

College degrees have sort of lost their value because there are more degrees than are actually needed for the number of available openings. Even though the women's salaries do not match the NBA's, if you are a really good player you can make more money playing ball than most entry-level post-college positions.

The NCAA committees have not adjusted to this change in WCBB. They are still focused on NCAA WCNN being about degrees and leveling the playing field and not that it is actually training for a vocation much like other college classes.

Of course, this is all supported by the government and corporation supported womens basketball model in the rest of the world.



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PostPosted: 03/30/20 1:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PUmatty wrote:
Another thought: Some people don't like school or college.


I agree with this. College and it's degrees are far overrated in this country. If I had a kid, and they wanted to go into a trade, I would SHOVE them in that direction.

I'm the managing partner of a restaurant, have three college degrees, including a masters, and I don't need one of them to be in this position. Have my degrees helped me? Perhaps. But-I know I could do my job without them, and do it just as well.


Speebs56



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PostPosted: 03/30/20 3:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ucbart wrote:
PUmatty wrote:
Another thought: Some people don't like school or college.


I agree with this. College and it's degrees are far overrated in this country. If I had a kid, and they wanted to go into a trade, I would SHOVE them in that direction.

I'm the managing partner of a restaurant, have three college degrees, including a masters, and I don't need one of them to be in this position. Have my degrees helped me? Perhaps. But-I know I could do my job without them, and do it just as well.


Sometimes the benefit of college isn't SOLELY the degree; it's the maturing time, the opportunity to learn how to think critically, to be exposed to new ideas -- or OLD ideas that you'd never encountered before.

IMHO college isn't just a vocational school for white collar workers, it's a place where some people can find themselves. Unfortunately, many people don't recognize the value in learning how to learn.


pilight



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PostPosted: 03/30/20 3:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Quite a bit of the value of college, especially high end schools, is networking. You get to meet people who can help you in your career.



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PostPosted: 03/30/20 3:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

There was an editorial in the New York Times last year where the writer explained how we’re all taught that the blueprint for the American Dream is you go to college, study a subject of interest, graduate, and then get a job in your chosen field. He then point out that you can divide the US adult population into five almost equal segments:

1) Roughly 1/5 of Americans don’t graduate from high school
2) The next group graduates from high school but never attends college
3) A third segment begins college but never graduates
4) Another roughly 1/5 graduates from college but is unable to sustain a career in their desired field
5) Finally, only the last group graduates from college and is able to maintain a career in their chosen profession

That means our blueprint for the American Dream fails 80% of Americans.



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PostPosted: 03/30/20 3:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
There was an editorial in the New York Times last year where the writer explained how we’re all taught that the blueprint for the American Dream is you go to college, study a subject of interest, graduate, and then get a job in your chosen field. He then point out that you can divide the US adult population into five almost equal segments:

1) Roughly 1/5 of Americans don’t graduate from high school
2) The next group graduates from high school but never attends college
3) A third segment begins college but never graduates
4) Another roughly 1/5 graduates from college but is unable to sustain a career in their desired field
5) Finally, only the last group graduates from college and is able to maintain a career in their chosen profession

That means our blueprint for the American Dream fails 80% of Americans.


A blueprint is only a blueprint. Somebody has to put in the work to build the building.


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PostPosted: 03/30/20 4:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FrozenLVFan wrote:
root_thing wrote:
There was an editorial in the New York Times last year where the writer explained how we’re all taught that the blueprint for the American Dream is you go to college, study a subject of interest, graduate, and then get a job in your chosen field. He then point out that you can divide the US adult population into five almost equal segments:

1) Roughly 1/5 of Americans don’t graduate from high school
2) The next group graduates from high school but never attends college
3) A third segment begins college but never graduates
4) Another roughly 1/5 graduates from college but is unable to sustain a career in their desired field
5) Finally, only the last group graduates from college and is able to maintain a career in their chosen profession

That means our blueprint for the American Dream fails 80% of Americans.


A blueprint is only a blueprint. Somebody has to put in the work to build the building.


But if you only need 20% as many buildings as you have builders, one blueprint isn't enough. I think there would be a lot less students in each major if colleges had to publish anonymous data of what each alumnus majored in and their next 10 years of job history.

Making it even tougher for workers across the spectrum in the USA is that business/rich control the government. So the government acts on their behalf and against workers. An illegal workforce is at first condoned, and then cherished. Jobs are allowed to be exported while people (workers) are imported. Special work visas are given to further attack wages in targeted areas.


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