RebKell's Junkie Boards

[jammerbirdi]

Okay I knew that but what I meant is that once you’re exposed to the virus, and have it in your system, no amount of further viral exposure would overload your system and make you ‘more’ sick. Right?

But then again, who knows what matters during the indefinite period of time your body is incubating/fighting the virus in your system?

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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[Luuuc]

[jammerbirdi]

Yeah, that seems to make sense.

_________________
Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[GlennMacGrady]

Update 1: Changes in Statistics in the 24 Hours since the OP

Worldwide:
- confirmed cases increased by 2,207 from 126,136 to 128,343
- deaths increased by 90 from 4,630 to 4,720
- death rate remains same at 3.67%

China:
- no change in any of the numbers

U.S.:
- confirmed cases increased by 355 from 1,312 to 1,663 (the biggest increase other than Iran)
- deaths increased by 2 from 38 to 40 (one more in Washington, and Georgia's first)
- death rate decreased from 2.89% to 2.41%

Norway:
- confirmed cases increased by 73 from 629 to 702
- deaths remained same at 0
- death rate remained same at 0.00%
- apparently spooked by this statistical crisis, Norway closed its entire country to travel today except from other Nordic countries and closed all schools from kindergarten through college
- (I wonder if anyone will accuse Norway's prime minister of racism and xenophobia)
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Here are details about the 40 U.S. deaths I've learned so far from researching local newspapers.

1 in New Jersey: 69 year old man with underlying health conditions

1 in South Dakota: man in his 60's with underlying health conditions

1 in Georgia: 67 year old man with underlying health conditions

2 in Florida:
- 71 year old man with "severe" underlying health conditions
- 77 year old woman who had recently traveled abroad

4 in California:
- 71 year old man with underlying health conditions who contracted symptoms on a cruise ship
- woman in her 60's with "chronic health conditions"
- woman in her 90's with underlying health conditions living in a nursing home
- woman over 60 with underlying health conditions who had traveled extensively including a layover in South Korea

31 in Washington:
- 22 from same nursing home near Seattle (Life Care Center of Kirkland)
- 2 patients in 80's in other nursing homes near Seattle
- looking for more data

Therefore, as of now in the U.S. outside the state of Washington, the number of actual deaths is ZERO for people under 60, and hence the actual death rate for people under 60 is also ZERO. It's certainly close to zero, if not at zero, for people under 60 or not in nursing homes in the state of Washington, but I can't yet verify all the ages there.

Another way for people in the U.S. to look at their risk of CV death is to compare the 40 deaths to the U.S. population of 330,000,000. Doing that, there is a 1 out of 8,250,000 chance of dying of CV in the U.S. Outside the state of Washington's population of ~8,000,000, the chances of dying of CV in the other 49 states is 9 out of 322,000,000 or 1 out of 35,777,777.

Corrections to or comments on the calculations are welcome.

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http://www.youtube.com/MagicBusBasketball

[justintyme]

This is the breakdown by age that they were able to compile from China. As I noted before, the variance of risk based upon age is huge.


Very few young people will die from this unless they have underlying medical conditions. However it is extremely dangerous for people 70+.

So in these early stages of the disease it matters a great deal who is being infected as far as what the overall numbers are going to say.

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↑↑↓↓←→←→BA

[tfan]

Here is a puzzling ratio. Santa Clara County, California announced 18 new cases, bringing the total to 66 (it was 4 on 2/29). They also announced that 31 people are hospitalized. 31/66 = 47%??

[FrozenLVFan]

[FrozenLVFan]

This site shows closed cases...recoveries vs deaths. Death rate is 7%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I've read statements online without any attribution that China stopped reporting its numbers last week. Anyone know if that is true? It would explain why their number of cases is seeming to plateau on various website charts.

[GlennMacGrady]

[pilight]

[Luuuc]

Chinese numbers have been increasing daily, albeit very slowly for the last 6 days. But someone there is still reporting something (They've been untrustworthy for over a month IMO anyway).
If the trend there is remotely accurate then the lockdown has been incredibly effective.

_________________
Thanks for calling. I wait all night for calls like these.

[GlennMacGrady]

Update 2: Changes in the Statistics in the 24 Hours since Previous Update

I've changed my mind about the reliability of the Worldometer site linked by Frozen. Having spent an hour reading it, it appears to be well-sourced on most pages and reasonably close to the Johns Hopkins data. I'll use some information from it from time to time but still use Hopkins as my primary source for calculation data.

Worldwide:
- confirmed cases increased by 17,026 from 128,343 to 145,369
- deaths increased by 709 from 4,720 to 5,429
- death rate increased from 3.67% to 3.73%

China:
- confirmed cases increased by 39 from 80,932 to 80,971
- deaths increased by 21 from 3,172 to 3,193
- death rate increased from 3.91% to 3.94%

U.S.:
- confirmed cases increased by 511 from 1,663 to 2,174
- deaths increased by 7 from 40 to 47 (6 more in Washington, and Kansas's first)
- death rate decreased from 2.41% to 2.16%

Italy:
- 1,226/17,660 = 6.94%
- compared to 827/12,462 = 6.63%, 48 hours ago in the OP
- 250 new deaths in Italy the past day. The highest number of deaths per day in the world ever (including China at its peak) has been reported in Italy in each of the last four days.

Here are the details on the seven new deaths in the U.S.:

1 (the first) in Kansas: man in 70's with underlying health conditions including heart disease, bed-ridden in a long-term care facility; CV diagnosed after autopsy

6 in Washington: The state now accounts for 37 of the U.S. deaths, and 25 of them are from the Life Care Center of Kirkland. Speaking of all 37, U.S. News reported: "Most of the people who died were in their 70s through 90s. One man in his 40s and two others in their 50s and two in their 60s died from COVID-19."

So, as to the 47 U.S. deaths, my research reveals that 44 were over 60 and almost all are reported to have had underlying medical conditions, and/or were in a nursing home, and/or had recently traveled abroad, and/or were on a cruise ship. Two were in their 50's and one in the 40's with no detail as to their other medical conditions.

_________________
http://www.youtube.com/MagicBusBasketball

[tfan]

[Luuuc]

I was speaking with a doctor about it today with this thread in mind, and they confirmed it too, and mentioned that it also varies by the type of virus.
eg. apparently Hepatitis A is renowned for needing only a tiny dose to infect a person, which is why if someone gets infected from some food, they will generally try to trace it back to recall & destroy the entire batch / truck load that it was sourced from.
Not sure where SARS-CoV-2 falls on the scale, but dosage matters.
So basically whatever correct measures you take might still limit how sick you get even if they don't completely prevent you from getting infected.

_________________
Thanks for calling. I wait all night for calls like these.

[GlennMacGrady]

[jammerbirdi]

So is it possible that we aren’t getting as sick, for whatever myriad reasons that might be possible, as other countries? You know we have way way more than 2200 people in this country infected with coronavirus. The jammer is a numerical illiterate. But I have this old on the fly restaurant manager quick in my head math thing. 10 cases of seriously ill patients out of possibly millions already infected. 46 dead and 20 of them were under one roof in one Seattle nursing home. Something just doesn’t figure here for me.

???

_________________
Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[jammerbirdi]

Is it possible that there is some kind of ... shelf life... to this bug... existing or maybe thriving in the atmosphere? Could it be weakening as a species? Losing its ability to make people sick?

Like I can hear people saying that’s not how these things typically work. But I would think it is how these things typically work or we would be inundated year after year with pandemic bugs. Things don’t survive or thrive to the point where they reach up and grab the human race by the throat very often.

Maybe I’m too stupid for this thread.

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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[GlennMacGrady]

Let's look at worldwide deaths from various causes since January 1, 2020.

8,555,100 – abortions
2,613,300 – all communicable diseases
338,403 – HIV/AIDS
271,744 – road accidents
197,457 – malaria
169,525 – water related diseases
97,825 – flu
5,614 – coronavirus

One of these causes is orders of magnitude less fatal than the others. So, why is there media hysteria, public panic and aggressive governmental interventions against the least fatal and none of the others?

_________________
http://www.youtube.com/MagicBusBasketball

[justintyme]

Based upon the best scientific models and estimates that we have at the moment, COVID-19 is not "orders of magnitude less fatal than the others".

It is more fatal than the flu and most other widespread communicable diseases, and more fatal than driving a car.

For instance, there is not a 10% chance that every person over the age of 70 who gets into a car will die in an auto accident.

And those that have high fatality rates have been major focuses for years. For instance, HIV/AIDS did have major panic, governmental intervention, and media coverage for years when it hit epidemic levels. Malaria has been the target of huge government programs and tons of money has been spent to prevent its spread.

Comparing deaths at this point is not how epidemiologists track the risks. It is extremely early and most places have not yet reached the point of community spread. But what happens once it does? What happens once the curve catches up and it is being transmitted throughout society like the flu? When the number of cases rival or transcend that of the flu? What happens to these numbers them? Based upon what epidemiologists believe is the most likely scenario, it is more contagious than the flu, so the likelihood of it not spreading like wildfire is rather low.

To say this shouldn't be taken with extreme seriousness based upon the data we now have, even with so much still unknown and with all the uncertainty about what the exact numbers are, is incredibly flawed and I have heard no actual expert in the field suggest such a thing.

It would be like being in the first few months of the AIDS crisis and saying, "No need to be concerned or treat this as a huge deal because so many more people have died from auto accidents in the last 3 months. Look at how few deaths have come from this AIDS thing."

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↑↑↓↓←→←→BA

[jammerbirdi]

Well I’m not taking it one bit more or less serious based on anything. I’m simply saying there are likely already millions infected with it here in this country and essentially nobody is dying of it here. So IF millions are infected and statistically zero percent of those millions are even sick let alone dying what might that mean?

You know, as long as we’re all just sitting around waiting to die.

_________________
Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[justintyme]

[FrozenLVFan]

[jammerbirdi]

So absolutely for certain there are “countries ahead of us.” How and why could there be countries in Europe and, ahem, Iran, ahead of California? That’s kind of the heart of my questioning here. And believe me, I’m not making a judgement that’s running counter to science. I’m just asking questions.

_________________
Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[jammerbirdi]

Why is the United States behind any other country on the timeline?

_________________
Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[FrozenLVFan]