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Gamecock1
Joined: 02 Dec 2018
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 Posted: 02/11/20 12:35 pm ::: |
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| PickledGinger wrote: |
| snlMINAJ wrote: |
| i predict that of the 3 favorites, south carolina will not make FF. |
Agreed. Three freshman starters doesn’t necessarily bode well for them come late March.
I predict that Oregon will win it all. Everything else up till that point might be a giant cluster F, which I would love. |
You do realize that by the time March comes along these girls will be as seasoned as a sophomore right ?
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ucbart
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 2815
Location: New York
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| Posted: 02/11/20 12:46 pm ::: |
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| summertime blues wrote: |
| ucbart wrote: |
Has there ever been a season where the overall #1 seed is more important than this one? There are clearly 3 teams heads and shoulders above the rest and 2 of those teams will have to play in one Final Four. The other will blow out the team they play in the other semifinal.
How do we see this playing out?
**Baylor won't lose another game because the B12 stinks. That will hurt them for the overall #1 because their OOC schedule, outside of UCONN and South Carolina, was cupcake city as usual.
**Oregon plays the most good teams and the Pac-12 is the best conference, but I think all of those teams are bad match-ups playing a team like Oregon. I think you need toughness to beat them and nobody in the Pac-12 has that. UCLA maybe, but they don't have the offense to keep up with Oregon. Oregon can out smart and out skill and out shoot everyone in WCBB. They will only have trouble with a physical defensive team, like SC or Baylor.
**South Carolina looks good, really good, but they rely a lot on freshman. They had some lapses last night that a team who can shoot the ball would've exploited. When you rely so much on freshman, even good ones, and get a game away from home or on a neutral court against a team with great guards, like Mississippi State, they could be in trouble. The SEC is relatively weak this year, so they'll probably run the table, but they're the team most likely to lose, IMO.
Thoughts? |
!. Baylor ALWAYS has a cupcake OOC schedule. Always. Kim does that to pad their resume. Regardless, they are well-disciplined and pretty dang deep. Cox is, for my money, one of the best in the game and a sure 1 to 3 pick in the draft, depending on the needs of a team. Richardson is right up there with her. I love Moon Ursin coming off the bench. I expect them to be in the championship game.
2. Oregon. Yikes. They just keep getting better. Barring injury, I don't see any problems. Ionescu is guardable though she's getting better at that. Maybe someone really physical and *quick* can get her, but beyond that....*shrug*
3. South Carolina. They have some weaknesses, but relying on freshmen isn't one of them. Freshmen aren't necessarily weak. They might be young, but can still be pretty mature. They're physical and are led by experienced players, and they can hurt you in a lot of ways.
4. The #4 team is still a mystery to me and I think will depend on placement more than anything. Right now I could look at NC State as much as anyone. I don't think Maryland, their bad hands could doom them. |
My points were made in relation to the overall #1 seed and the importance of it. I think your reply cold be in this thread, but not to my post.
I agree with everything you said, however. At this point, I've seen Baylor and Oregon in person lay the smack down on UCONN. I think Baylor is better on D. I think Oregon is better on O. But I think Baylor is better on O than Oregon is on D.....if that made any sense. I think Hebard will have a hard time against Cox....and I think Ny'lyssa Smith can chase Sabally around. It would be a fascinating match-up.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 02/11/20 1:40 pm ::: |
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| J-Spoon wrote: |
obviously it has to be someone who is not in the bracket with Oregon, Baylor, or SC, so probably anyone in the fourth region if Conn ends up as the 2 in that region they have a chance, or whatever Pac team ends up in that region UCLA, OrS, Stanford
for a completely random suggestions I will go with Florida State |
yep, I think teams will be lining up with hands raised to be the #2 or #3 in that fourth region.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 02/11/20 1:43 pm ::: |
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| ucbart wrote: |
I agree with everything you said, however. At this point, I've seen Baylor and Oregon in person lay the smack down on UCONN. I think Baylor is better on D. I think Oregon is better on O. But I think Baylor is better on O than Oregon is on D.....if that made any sense. I think Hebard will have a hard time against Cox....and I think Ny'lyssa Smith can chase Sabally around. It would be a fascinating match-up. |
I think the defensive matchups from Oregon's side (when they play man to man) would be:
Hebard on Smith
Sabally on Cox
Boley on Richards
guards on guards
but I'm guessing they would play quite a bit of zone to try to prevent the drives and dare Baylor to shoot from outside.
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For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 02/11/20 3:17 pm ::: |
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So it turns out Charlie's latest has NC State as the fourth #4. To me that's what makes sense at this point. We'll see if they beat Louisville this week....
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology
In general, I think the P12 would be quite happy with this bracket.
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For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 8225
Location: Heisenberg
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| Posted: 02/11/20 3:57 pm ::: |
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N.C. State
Northwestern
S. Dakota
Stanford
A girl can dream. |
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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| Posted: 02/11/20 3:57 pm ::: |
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| Being the best #2 seed won’t be so bad this year. The original premise of this thread is who do you see as the Final Four teams, not who are the four #1 seeds. A team that starts out the season slow but finishes strong may not be a #1 seed but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re not a Final Four team.
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SocksTerp
Joined: 15 Jan 2009
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| Posted: 02/11/20 6:41 pm ::: |
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| Shades wrote: |
| Maryland has a lot of talent, and if they could consistently fire on all cylinders, they could be a Final Four level team. But they struggle to be consistent for some reason. |
If the Terps can regain some 3 point shooting consistency and eliminate the careless turnovers, they could make some noise in the tournament.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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Coyotes
Joined: 28 Jan 2018
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Conway Gamecock
Joined: 23 Jan 2015
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| Posted: 02/12/20 4:04 am ::: |
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| snlMINAJ wrote: |
| i predict that of the 3 favorites, south carolina will not make FF. |
It could happen. After losing in the 2014-15 Final Four by 1 point to Notre Dame, I felt the Gamecocks would come back for 2015-16 even stronger, and make a serious run at the championship. And they were better, going undefeated in the SEC, winning the SECT, losing only to Connecticut in the regular season.
But the team was not strong defensively, and started games slowly and sloppily, only averaging scoring less than 4 points more in the 1st quarters than what our opponents averaged.
We went into the NCAAT playing like that, and it bit the team against Syracuse, who upset the Gamecocks in the Sweet Sixteen. Of course, Syracuse would go on to play Connecticut in the championship game, like we were hoping to do.
So it could happen again. But lets play this thing out on paper: South Carolina is currently the #1 ranked team in the nation, and 23-1. we play at Kentucky, and home against Texas A&M and LSU - those are the remaining toughest SEC competition the rest of the regular season.
The Aggies have dealt with the injury to their top player Chennedy Carter, although she is back practicing with the team, and should be back for our game - LSU lost their top player Ayana Mitchell for the season - Kentucky lost their top player Rhyne Howard for awhile to injury, but she's back playing again.
If the Gamecocks can close out winning the SEC regular season title, or at least finish in the top 4 of the standings, they will get the coveted double-bye in the SECT straight into the quarterfinals. That helps them in winning the SECT, but they don't have to win it to maintain a #1 Seeding for the NCAAT.
But they currently are in the driver's seat for the overall #1 - either way, should they get any of the four #1 Seeds, they most likely are the sure-bet #1 Seed in the Greenville, SC Regional.
That means that South Carolina would essentially have home court advantage straight into the Final Four in New Orleans (especially since this year Columbia, SC will NOT be a regional host for the MBB NCAAT like it was last season - it forced the Women Gamecocks to be the "host" in Charlotte, NC).
Being able to play 2/3rds of the NCAAT in front of 10,000+ partisan fans can never be discounted. IF South Carolina can maintain the overall #1 Seed for the tourney, they will have the best chance of the 4 to make the FF......
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Conway Gamecock
Joined: 23 Jan 2015
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| Posted: 02/12/20 4:20 am ::: |
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| calbearman76 wrote: |
Barring something very strange Oregon will be in Portland, Baylor will be in Dallas and South Carolina will be in Greenville. All will have strong site advantages. The Fort Wayne region is open for the 4th #1 seed. There are several teams that could get there, including North Carolina St, Louisville, Maryland, Connecticut (with a win over South Carolina) or even Stanford or UCLA with a Pac12 tournament win. These teams would all be in contention for the overall number 5 slot as well, but if that team is from the Pac 12 it would likely go to Dallas. More likely the 3rd seed in this region will come from the Pac 12 and the 4th seed should come from the Big 10 if Maryland is not the 1 seed. I see the ACC winner (Louisville or North Carolina St) as the probable 1 seed with Maryland the 2, Arizona or UCLA as the 3 and Indiana as the 4. Any of them could get to the final 4.
South Carolina seem the most vulnerable of the top 3 as the 2 seed could be North Carolina St, limiting their site benefit. Carolina also has some freshman that may not respond to tournament pressure. Baylor look superior to any team that could be shipped to Dallas, but the #2 team out of the Pac 12 will likely get the 2 seed in Dallas unless they get the 1 seed in in Fort Wayne. Mississippi St could also find their way to Dallas. Oregon could get a rematch with UConn in Portland. Another thing to watch for is whether the Committee could put a 4 or 5 seed Oregon St in Portland also as the 5th team out of the Pac 12. Despite already playing twice that would be an amazing Sweet 16 game.
So going out on a limb I will take Oregon, Baylor, Maryland and Louisville, as long as 1 of them is in Greenville. |
NC State is currently averaging 3,892 through 12 home games this season - USC is averaging 11,942 through 11 gms. I doubt the Gamecocks will be too heavily impacted by the Wolfpack faithful. Bon Secours holds 15,000, so it will hold all of us 
South Carolina currently has the #1 RPI in the nation, and a top 10 overall SOS. They are 11-1 versus Q1 tier RPI opponents, with 3 more left to play - only one other WBB team currently has as many as 9 Q1 wins - and 9-1 against top 25 opponents. They are 4-0 against top 10 opponents. Three of those freshmen players have started every single game USC has played thus far, and 2 of them have alternated being the Gamecock's leading scorer throughout the season. I'm not worried about them being too "freshman" for the rest of the season, at this point.....
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taropatch
Joined: 24 Feb 2009
Posts: 814
Location: Kau Rubbish Dump
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| Posted: 02/16/20 11:36 pm ::: |
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So after this week of carnage, who gets the 4th top seed?
It appears UConn is back in the picture with Stanford and Louisville in Geno's rearview mirror. Huskies took care of South Florida and should win out till the AAC tourney.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 02/17/20 8:04 am ::: |
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| taropatch wrote: |
So after this week of carnage, who gets the 4th top seed?
It appears UConn is back in the picture with Stanford and Louisville in Geno's rearview mirror. Huskies took care of South Florida and should win out till the AAC tourney. |
Maryland has four wins better than UConn's best win and have no bad losses
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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| Posted: 02/17/20 11:28 am ::: |
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| myrtle wrote: |
So it turns out Charlie's latest has NC State as the fourth #4. To me that's what makes sense at this point. We'll see if they beat Louisville this week....
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology
In general, I think the P12 would be quite happy with this bracket. |
In usual Charlie Creme fashion, he screwed up.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 02/17/20 12:52 pm ::: |
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| Shades wrote: |
| myrtle wrote: |
So it turns out Charlie's latest has NC State as the fourth #4. To me that's what makes sense at this point. We'll see if they beat Louisville this week....
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology
In general, I think the P12 would be quite happy with this bracket. |
In usual Charlie Creme fashion, he screwed up. |
This year is much harder than most to predict.
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For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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