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LitePal



Joined: 08 Sep 2005
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PostPosted: 01/01/20 1:47 pm    ::: Pac 12 coaching question Reply Reply with quote

How long can Trakh at USC and Wynn at UW last? They seem poised to be at the bottom of the conference for the next few seasons at least and they're midway through their contracts. Trakh has done some good recruiting. Last year's class was #5 and they're getting their chance with all the transfers USC had. Wynn, not so much.

USC is having serious problems with all sports and also an image problem with Admission-gate. UW seems more serious about sports and their AD has done a good job with most hires.

I think they both complete their contracts and then are both replaced.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 01/01/20 6:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Before the Plum era, I don't remember Washington being much, so in a way it's just reverting to 'normal'. They don't have a huge local base from which to recruit and what they do have seem to be siphoned off into the Oregon schools and Stanford which now have the reputations as winning programs. It's hard to revive a 'bad' program...which is why it's so much fun to see what Adia has done at Arizona.

As for USC, I dunno. Keep thinking they will be better than they are. Not really sure what holds them back. They've played musical chairs with coaches but nothing seems to revive them. They wouldn't be such a terrible team if they weren't in the P12.



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Stormeo



Joined: 14 Jul 2019
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PostPosted: 01/02/20 3:34 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Myrtle is right, UW WBB has never had a sustained eliteness about it. I think when our AD Jen Cohen (who has overall done a great job imo) hired Wynn, she understood this and saw that Wynn had demonstrated an ability to build a program completely from the ground up that this program would need. Most coaches going to a new school have some sort of foundational players at the new school to work with; some coaches just can't build up from nothing, which is pretty much what we had when Neighbors left. It took Wynn five seasons before LBSU saw its first winning one under her leadership, so Cohen I'm sure knew that the rebuild would be long in hiring her - and it was probably always gonna be long no matter what. Do I ultimately think Wynn was the right choice? As of now, no; though if Wynn can get this group to overachieve and finish around .500, I'll gladly start rethinking her. But I'm gonna guess the mediocrity will continue and Wynn will last into her sixth year before our AD pulls the trigger and starts over.

What was interesting that no one I think noticed was this: Wynn graduated and was an assistant coach at USC, and both the UW and USC WBB jobs were open at the same time. UW filled ours with Wynn before USC after several weeks went back to Trakh (they got "back on Trakh"? Laughing ). Did USC just not consider Wynn for their job? Or did she interview with USC and one of the two sides (namely hers) didn't consider it a good fit? LitePal, like you said, USC has their image problem given their more-than-fair share of scandals. Their athletic department & bigger-name programs will likely continue to be messy so long as the school's reputation doesn't improve. With regards to WBB, a bunch of players transferred after last season, and I don't see any reason why it won't happen again this year. The team is made up of mostly freshmen; some players inevitably will see an uphill battle for minutes or an awkward fit within the team/culture. Trakh though may be there longer than Wynn at least, especially if he can continue to bring in the recruits (even if it doesn't pan out). I'm kind of surprised high-level recruits still go there, cuz USC WBB hasn't been good let alone elite in a very long time.

Utah's Lynne Roberts is another one to speculate about. This year, whether they knew it or not, sure has become a rebuilding year, so maybe the 2020-2021 season makes-or-breaks her? Colorado to me won't ever get out of mediocrity with their coach JR Payne, but this year looks like their best chance to prove me wrong. (If y’all couldn’t tell, I’m very much a pessimist, but also a bit of a realist)




Last edited by Stormeo on 01/02/20 1:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
summertime blues



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PostPosted: 01/02/20 10:04 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I still believe the adage that it takes 3 years to build a team and 7 to build a program. Most fans are too impatient to get that when a program has been in the doldrums for a long time it may take even longer than that. Players may not want to come to a program that has been "trash" for years, which makes recruiting difficult. A new coach has to convince them to buy into his style. Players most likely come from less than top-tier high school programs, or if they come from good programs, they may have difficulty meshing with others who don't. It's tricky. Wisconsin, as an example, is just now coming out of the morass former AD Pat Richter threw it into years ago, and there are some already calling for Jonathan Tsipis' scalp, apparently. (Not many, I gather, because Badgers' WBB support dwindled badly in the lean years) The B1G is as loaded as the PAC-12, so the climb will be just as hard for them if it occurs at all.



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LitePal



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PostPosted: 01/02/20 11:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wynn has shown she can coach, like when she played OSU down to the wire with her badly outmanned LBSU team in the tournament. However, her recruiting has been woefully bad and you just can't compete in the Pac without the talent. Considering who she loses and what she gains, it's hard to see UW breaking out of the bottom for at least three years unless they can get some really great transfers. USC has recruited well and although the team got mopped up by UCLA, they showed some promise and a few, like Pili, could be a real force in the conference. Recruiting in itself could get Trakh an extension of the contract. The transfers were said to be a part of very poor chemistry last season, but if it happens again, all fingers point to Trakh. However, USC remains a popular destination for transfers so that in itself puts him ahead of UW and Wynn. And just for the record, I believe all but one transfer from last year was a grad transfer. Nonetheless, it's not a good look.

Wynn might have had the USC job if they didn't have such a worthless AD like Swann. However, the front runner was Smesko but that came after a long, humiliating public search where contenders were mentioned and then shot down. Not enough money or not enough support but Smesko didn't sign, but he really wanted the job. He even came to USC for an on campus interview at the very end. Some say he will be next in line when Trakh is fired/retired. The fact that Swann was golfing, at a convention, or whatever, when this search was going on does say what his priorities were.

What might help Wynn is to get a real recruiting ace like April Phillips but I don't think much can save her. Cohen has indeed done a good job, has gotten a bit lucky in places but this is a real disaster, especially since she was scouting Wynn before Neighbors left and it was well known he would depart.


PUmatty



Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: 01/02/20 11:25 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:
The B1G is as loaded as the PAC-12,



There is no world in which this is true.


ClayK



Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: 01/02/20 11:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:
I still believe the adage that it takes 3 years to build a team and 7 to build a program. Most fans are too impatient to get that when a program has been in the doldrums for a long time it may take even longer than that. Players may not want to come to a program that has been "trash" for years, which makes recruiting difficult. A new coach has to convince them to buy into his style. Players most likely come from less than top-tier high school programs, or if they come from good programs, they may have difficulty meshing with others who don't. It's tricky. Wisconsin, as an example, is just now coming out of the morass former AD Pat Richter threw it into years ago, and there are some already calling for Jonathan Tsipis' scalp, apparently. (Not many, I gather, because Badgers' WBB support dwindled badly in the lean years) The B1G is as loaded as the PAC-12, so the climb will be just as hard for them if it occurs at all.


So true ... sometimes a coach can get lucky, or is truly exceptional, and it looks like a magic wand was waved and a program has turned around.

But it takes time to build a program, at any level. Even in high school, where the competition isn't nearly as fierce, it takes two or three years to right the ship. (Of course, if some elite talent lands on any roster, change for the good can happen very quickly, but that's like relying on winning the lottery.)



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patsweetpat



Joined: 14 Jul 2010
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PostPosted: 01/02/20 3:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PUmatty wrote:
summertime blues wrote:
The B1G is as loaded as the PAC-12,



There is no world in which this is true.


My eye got caught on that sentence-fragment as well, but then I decided to just let it go unremarked upon. But then you didn't, so now I didn't.


Stormeo



Joined: 14 Jul 2019
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PostPosted: 01/02/20 4:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

patsweetpat wrote:
PUmatty wrote:
summertime blues wrote:
The B1G is as loaded as the PAC-12,



There is no world in which this is true.


My eye got caught on that sentence-fragment as well, but then I decided to just let it go unremarked upon. But then you didn't, so now I didn't.


Laughing I do think the adage of 3 years to rebuild, 7 years to fully build would certainly apply to UW’s program at this point. Although, both Kelly Graves’ and Scott Rueck’s first 20-win seasons at their current programs came in just their second years, with Rueck’s first NCAA-tourney appearance coming in his fourth year and Graves’ in his third. That probably contributes to why I’m so impatient about UW’s program tbh. Embarassed Both coaches have proved to be master recruiters (especially considering how little talent the state of Oregon itself has), which truly does make all the difference. If a coach can’t secure that top talent, their program will never be elite (which makes USC’s everlasting struggle all the more perplexing. And across town, will UCLA ever make it to the Final 4?).


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3924
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 01/02/20 5:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

patsweetpat wrote:
PUmatty wrote:
summertime blues wrote:
The B1G is as loaded as the PAC-12,



There is no world in which this is true.


My eye got caught on that sentence-fragment as well, but then I decided to just let it go unremarked upon. But then you didn't, so now I didn't.


The comparison of Pac 12 to the Big 10 is a bit complicated. There is no question that the top of the Pac 12 is far better. UCLA is number 4 in the Pac 12 but beat Indiana on the road. But the Big 10 has better depth, with 12 teams in the top 50 in Massey versus 8 for the Pac 12. And Cal seems a bit overrated.

For a program on the rise it may be harder to make inroads in the Big 10 if your best effort can only beat a top 80 team, not a top 50 team


osubeavers



Joined: 07 Jan 2017
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PostPosted: 01/02/20 6:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Stormeo wrote:
Myrtle is right, UW WBB has never had a sustained eliteness about it. I think when our AD Jen Cohen (who has overall done a great job imo) hired Wynn, she understood this and saw that Wynn had demonstrated an ability to build a program completely from the ground up that this program would need. Most coaches going to a new school have some sort of foundational players at the new school to work with; some coaches just can't build up from nothing, which is pretty much what we had when Neighbors left. It took Wynn five seasons before LBSU saw its first winning one under her leadership, so Cohen I'm sure knew that the rebuild would be long in hiring her - and it was probably always gonna be long no matter what. Do I ultimately think Wynn was the right choice? As of now, no; though if Wynn can get this group to overachieve and finish around .500, I'll gladly start rethinking her. But I'm gonna guess the mediocrity will continue and Wynn will last into her sixth year before our AD pulls the trigger and starts over.

What was interesting that no one I think noticed was this: Wynn graduated and was an assistant coach at USC, and both the UW and USC WBB jobs were open at the same time. UW filled ours with Wynn before USC after several weeks went back to Trakh (they got "back on Trakh"? Laughing ). Did USC just not consider Wynn for their job? Or did she interview with USC and one of the two sides (namely hers) didn't consider it a good fit? LitePal, like you said, USC has their image problem given their more-than-fair share of scandals. Their athletic department & bigger-name programs will likely continue to be messy so long as the school's reputation doesn't improve. With regards to WBB, a bunch of players transferred after last season, and I don't see any reason why it won't happen again this year. The team is made up of mostly freshmen; some players inevitably will see an uphill battle for minutes or an awkward fit within the team/culture. Trakh though may be there longer than Wynn at least, especially if he can continue to bring in the recruits (even if it doesn't pan out). I'm kind of surprised high-level recruits still go there, cuz USC WBB hasn't been good let alone elite in a very long time.

Utah's Lynne Roberts is another one to speculate about. This year, whether they knew it or not, sure has become a rebuilding year, so maybe the 2020-2021 season makes-or-breaks her? Colorado to me won't ever get out of mediocrity with their coach JR Payne, but this year looks like their best chance to prove me wrong. (If y’all couldn’t tell, I’m very much a pessimist, but also a bit of a realist)
After Ionsecu’s graduation I wouldn’t be surprised to see uo’s associate HC Mark Campbell start shopping around for a HC spot. And if he wants to stay on the West Coast and the UW job is available that might look like a good match for the Huskies.



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Last edited by osubeavers on 01/05/20 1:35 pm; edited 2 times in total
Stormeo



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PostPosted: 01/02/20 7:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

osubeavers wrote:
After Ionescu’s graduation I wouldn’t be surprised to see uo’s associate HC Mark Campbell start shopping around for a HC spot. And if he wants to stay on the West Coast and the UW job is available that might’ve look like a good match for the Huskies.


And I didn't realize Campbell was actually from Mount Vernon, which is a city about an hour north of Seattle. It'd be nice if he stayed at Oregon for another few years until the UW job opens up again. Smile


elsie



Joined: 08 Apr 2016
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PostPosted: 01/04/20 1:34 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think that Campbell had a hold on Ionescu when he was still at Oregon state....which is why he was hired away from Oregon state by Graves, because why else would Graves hire someone he never worked with before..... he was hired immediately after Graves left Gonzaga....its worked out well......but Campbell will probably now that Ionescu's reign is nearly done, seek the HC job somewhere...all of this is just my opinion, based on no facts that I know of, just making a good guess...


ClayK



Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: 01/04/20 11:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

elsie wrote:
I think that Campbell had a hold on Ionescu when he was still at Oregon state....which is why he was hired away from Oregon state by Graves, because why else would Graves hire someone he never worked with before..... he was hired immediately after Graves left Gonzaga....its worked out well......but Campbell will probably now that Ionescu's reign is nearly done, seek the HC job somewhere...all of this is just my opinion, based on no facts that I know of, just making a good guess...


No one really has "a hold" on Sabrina Ionescu. She is a young woman who makes her own decisions ...



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elsie



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PostPosted: 01/08/20 5:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I meant he had a good connection on recruiting her, but you knew that.....

I wonder how much of a contract she'll get from Nike after her college days .....it'll probably be massive..


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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PostPosted: 01/09/20 12:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ahh, yes....U-Dubb. I remember when Cameo Hicks was a star. Very Happy

LitePal wrote:
....However, the front runner was Smesko but that came after a long, humiliating public search where contenders were mentioned and then shot down. Not enough money or not enough support but Smesko didn't sign, but he really wanted the job. He even came to USC for an on campus interview at the very end. Some say he will be next in line when Trakh is fired/retired.

I don't remember knowing that, at the time: Karl has long been one of my FAVORITE coaches....talk about 'waving wands', and making the most with the least! He will be a catch for any P5 program. I really had hoped he'd get the Ohio Sate job before they hired McGuff. Karl is an Ohioan.

osubeavers wrote:
After Ionsecu’s graduation I wouldn’t be surprised to see uo’s associate HC Mark Campbell start shopping around for a HC spot. And if he wants to stay on the West Coast and the UW job is available that might look like a good match for the Huskies.


Kelly himself will tell you how indispensable Campbell has been to his program's rise. An obviously talented guy.



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