RebKell's Junkie Boards

[root_thing]

We keep speculating that Han is going to be over-matched, but we know with certainty that no one the Liberty threw out there last night could handle Fowles. Why not give Han a try? Last season, after Smith cut Mercedes Russell, they had to bring her back as an Emergency Hardship replacement because Stokes got hurt on the last day of training camp. Russell played very well in the two games she was retained, including most of the second half of a game against Minnesota. She guarded Fowles way better than Zahui or Charles. Russell was likewise a rookie. She came out of the SEC, which was in no way as tough as the Chinese League. Look at all the WNBA players Han faced as a starter this winter: Charles, Nneka, Bonner, Achonwa, Dolson, Breland, Plaisance, McGee, Billings, Tuck, Coates. And that's not to mention facing Team USA, Cambage with Australia, Meesseman with Belgium, etcetera in the World Cup and other competitions. This idea that Han needs to be protected, that she is less ready than NCAA draftees to face WNBA competition makes no sense. Coming into the season, she had way more exposure to top players than almost any American rookie. I'm not saying that she's going to be great, but there's no reason to keep her glued to the bench either. Do we want Charles, who is already looking old this season, to play 38 minutes every game? If you don't play Han now, when will you ever use her?

People keep suggesting that Tsai "drafted" Han even though he has said repeatedly that Jonathan Kolb is the person most responsible. Where I do think Tsai might have gotten involved is pulling strings to help get her over here. However, those bureaucrats over at Chinese Basketball are probably now wondering why they let their star player go overseas just to waste away on the bench. They as much as Han are likely to view a return to New York as a waste of time if her season here yields very little benefit.

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You can always do something else.

[Bob Lamm]

[NYL_WNBA_FAN]

The difference between Russell and Han is that Russell has a lower-body base to draw balance and coordination from. Han just doesn’t have that yet. I know something about this. I’m built very similarly to Han in that I had long legs relative to my height and a slender build and I’ve played basketball. I can tell you from experience how difficult it is to get that type of balance and coordination and I’m 5’9”. So, at 6’9”, not speaking the language, possibly not knowing the schemes that well and 19 years old...this isn’t the Kia Nurse situation. I have an understanding of what it is to be that build at 5’9”. I can’t imagine what it’s like at 6’9” with all the above obstacles guarding elite athletes. In China she understood the language and probably had the schemes down. In the WNBA, everyone is fast. She not only has to guard bigs but has to switch and help. I’m not as worried about the 1-on-1 as I am about the help. She played 3 minutes WITHOUT Fowles on the floor and looked totally lost in my opinion. I thought she looked lost in help defense in garbage time too when she got some minutes. I thought her defense in the China game at Barclays wasn’t good. Rebounding isn’t much better.

I don’t see treating her differently than any other second round pick who’s not ready to play yet. There’s two and a half months of season left. If you’re looking to lose on purpose that’s one thing. As a fan I get that. The team doesn’t have the luxury of doing that though.

And I say this not trusting Katie Smith either. And if you want Han in purely for developmental purposes, I get it. If you view this as a lost season I get it. Even if I think the Libs are probably going to be much better in the second half of the season. But in my opinion I say with 100 percent certainty that Han right now lessens your chance of winning. Whatever you view those chances to begin with is another matter. If you view that difference as minimal (I don’t) then playing Han makes more sense.

Not playing Kia Nurse last year, who like most UConn players WAS ready to play certainly makes it understandable why one wouldn’t trust Katie Smith’s judgment now. Ditto Zahui vs. Vaughn. Ditto Coleman vs. anyone. I just personally see this as being different from those situations. And I’d love nothing more than for her to be able to play 15-20 minutes and provide 6 points, 4 rebounds and rim protection. I just don’t see that being realistic.

When Katie says Han isn’t ready I agree. But then you hear her say stuff like Gray is a good defender and the energy against Chicago was good and I wonder if I’m watching the same sport. Maybe Han is a double-double waiting to happen.

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The poster formerly known as LibWNBAFan.

[Bob Lamm]

Han didn't play for three minutes last night. She played for exactly one minute and 48 seconds. She looked lost for all of 108 seconds! She's a rookie whose entire WNBA career in games that count has added up to 31 minutes, spread over six games. Can Katie Smith or anyone else be certain that Han wouldn't figure out a few things if she was on the court for reasonable stretches? How about 12 minutes per game, two six-minute stints, over the next five games till Zahui and Stokes return? How much could Han hurt the team? The Liberty wasn't doing well defensively when Zahui B was there. Last night Fowles had a picnic against Charles, Gray, and Raincock-Ekunwe.

Despite my excitement about Nurse and Durr, despite the welcome improvement by Zahui on both offense and defense, I view our team as quite weak. I don't see the Liberty making the playoffs. If somehow we finish 7th or 8th, I see us having a playoff season of exactly one game. That doesn't excite me. I have painful memories of much better Liberty teams having one-game playoff seasons. So if Han playing more would cost us a win or two, even three, my response is: so what? I'm fine with risking that to give her some experience and to better assess whether she can help our team in the future.

[root_thing]

I don't know how anyone can say Han looks lost when she has hardly played. She was on the floor for two defensive possessions yesterday. On the first, Nurse threw the ball away to DRob in the the middle of the floor. Han was on the far side. It became a race to the basket with Han surprisingly keeping up. However, Robinson who is very good at finishing made the layup. On the next Lynx possession, Lexi Brown drove to the basket, made the layup, and was fouled. The post player on that side of the floor was Raincock. Han wasn't even involved. And yet, she got pulled like it was her fault. It was similar to that time she played one minute against Indiana. First defensive possession, a long rebound to Achonwa where she goes back up and makes a jumpshot. Second possession, McCowan scoops a rebound off the floor and goes up right away. Han challenges and catches some arm. McCowan misses the first free throw, and Han gets yanked. Two plays, neither of which indicated that Xu was somehow confused or overmatched. Nonetheless, she was instantly pulled. In the two games where she did play significant minutes, Han was +11 vs -15 for the team against Indiana, and +0 vs -35 for the team against LVA. Again, I'm not saying that this is indicative that she'll thrive. I'm just pointing out that there is no evidence yet that she will struggle. It's all opinion and assumption at this point.

What I do know is that the Lynx repeatedly threw the ball over the top to Fowles yesterday. That was the main breakdown on defense. Charles, Raincock and Gray easily got outjumped. What allowed Russell to defend Fowles better than Zahui and Charles last year was the fact that she is 6-6. I have to believe that throwing the ball over 6-9 Han is a lot harder than players 6-2 or 6-3. Shooting over her would be harder too. Again, it was at least worth a try.

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You can always do something else.

[ClayK]

One of my long-time assertions is that you can't understand substitution patterns unless you're at practice every day.

If Han is getting worked every day by every other post, then it makes zero sense to play her. If she's holding her own in practice, even if she's behind by a bit, it makes sense to play her.

And I know WNBA teams don't scrimmage that much once the season starts, but you can find out pretty quickly who can do what on the block with a few drills and one-on-sessions with coaches.

My guess would be that Han is simply way overmatched by WNBA size, strength and skill, as even though I don't think much of Katie Smith's performance, I'm sure she's got enough savvy to determine if Han deserves, or would benefit from, more minutes. It does no good to just throw a young player to the wolves -- performance depends a lot on confidence.

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Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā

[NYL_WNBA_FAN]

In the two games where she has gotten more substantive minutes against mostly second string players, she's got 3 rebounds in 27 minutes. She gets bounced around by stronger players. Which is pretty much every forward in the WNBA. She also has weak hands. Her rebounding would not improve with more playing time. It might actually be more demoralizing to play and not be ready than it would be to sit on the bench. Just a thought. Post players take years to evaluate. People were ready to give up on Zahui, who is developing in a positive way, in favor of Han earlier this year. Whatever eval of Han that you'd get from this year probably bears no resemblance to what you'll get in the future anyway, which is why you drafted her in the first place.

Defending Fowles, throwing it over the top wouldn't matter. Fowles is so much stronger that she'd just pin Han in the post if Han attempted to 3/4 or front. Gray tried and couldn't get in front of her because Fowles pinned her in the post. Han is taller than Gray but her height would cease to matter because Fowles would back her under the basket at will.

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The poster formerly known as LibWNBAFan.

[NYL_WNBA_FAN]

FYI also...Katie Smith was absolutely giddy on the bench and was gesturing to Herb emphatically on the bench when Han made some good plays in the China game. As if to say, I told you so. There's no doubt in my mind that Katie thinks highly of Han's future. In terms of some of that sort of discussion. I don't think Katie is eager to bench Han. I also don't think Katie has any sort of loyalty to Gray. Last year you could argue Katie erroneously deferred to veterans. This isn't that either. Just making the point that I don't think this is equivalent to last year's decision-making. Not that anyone has said that. It's purely my own point.

This all said, there was a point last year that the Libs were so bad that they had nothing to lose by playing younger players. If they get to that point this year, then you've gotta let her play more. I just don't think they're there yet. Even last night, that game was a 2-possession game with a minute or two left. Once they started doubling more effectively in a man-to-man scheme they were better. Which I think begs a bigger question than who was guarding Fowles. Why didn't they scheme differently from the start? Yesterday was a game to double-team with abandon. You'd had a few days off going in. Then you had a whole week off afterward. I think that's the bigger question than who was guarding Fowles. She shouldn't be allowed to get position a few feet from the basket without seeing a double. Not understanding why the best they could do is switch to a 2-3 which also didn't work, before going man with more aggressive doubles. That's what they should have done from the start. How much did they even practice that 2-3 going in? It was horrible.

Today at half of DC-Atlanta Thibault told his players to close the gaps when playing D. Not sure how that specifically would pertain to their scheme but they did it in the second half and shut Atlanta down. Individually, you wouldn't even characterize them as really good defensive players. They're probably individually not much better than the Libs. But can anyone picture Katie straightening out the team's defensive scheme in one sentence? I sure don't.

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The poster formerly known as LibWNBAFan.

[root_thing]

All I know is every bad thing that is supposed to happen if Han plays is already happening. Fowles posted down low and easily scored against all three Liberty post players on Saturday. On top of that, she was able to grab rebounds and get putbacks even when double-teamed. In the previous game, Cheyenne Parker was able to get deep position on Zahui and shoot 4-4 from inside 5 feet. We've also seen games where the post players did a really poor job of rotating. And even if they're in the right place, all they seem to do is foul. NY leads the league in fouls. They give up the most points. They allow the most points in the paint. But it's okay as long as these players aren't named Han. It's like we're afraid our new umbrella isn't big enough, so rather than try it, we'll simply use the old one that has a hole in it.

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You can always do something else.

[Bob Lamm]

[NYL_WNBA_FAN]

Han doesn’t have readiness as a rebounder either. And that’s been a strength of NY in several games this year.

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The poster formerly known as LibWNBAFan.

[root_thing]

I agree, my greatest concern about Han is rebounding. However, her lack of rebounds is partly a function of how she is used. On offense, Han is deployed mostly at the elbows or at the foul line. She is essentially a perimeter player. Given the current depleted roster, Smith could employ that big line-up she tested against LVA with a frontcourt of Han, Gray, and Raincock. Han is essentially the 3 on offense and 4 on defense. The reverse is true for Raincock. In this alignment, one hopes that Han will score enough to offset shortcomings in other phases of her game. We won't know until we try.

What has gone unmentioned is the identity of this team. New York fans are used to thinking of the Liberty as a gritty defensive squad. However, it may not be appropriate for the current make-up of their roster. Right now, New York is second in PACE, which is one reason why their stats (good or bad) are much higher this year. Adding Stokes to the mix might help defensively, but adding Johannes is likely to push them in a more offensive direction. Depending on who gets the minutes, the Liberty might be better off trying to outscore opponents than holding them down.

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You can always do something else.

[GlennMacGrady]

All this existential angst about why Han doesn't get more than token minutes. Occam's Razor suggests the two most likely reasons are:

1. Han's failure to speak and understand English is a very significant barrier to Katie Smith's confidence in her. If a player can't understand the game plan, the bench and huddle instructions, or communicate instantaneously and effectively with her teammates, a coach's confidence in playing such a player will naturally be low.

2. Han's a stiff.

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http://www.youtube.com/MagicBusBasketball

[Luuuc]

[GlennMacGrady]

[NYSports56]

I agree with the people who say that Han Xu does not appear to be ready based on the minutes we have seen so far. Until she starts showing more, I don't think Han should be in at any time other than garbage time, unless fatigue or foul trouble dictates otherwise.

[root_thing]

William of Ockham didn't spend 55 years watching "genius" coaches fuck up teams across multiple sports. I'm actually advocating the simpler position -- trial and error. Give the kid a chance. The team is supposedly afraid of bad defense, but they keep using the same people who make them the worst defensive team in the league. What does your medieval friar have to say about that?

New York is missing two post players. If not now, when will Han ever play? We know that either Gray or Raincock is going to get cut. By playing both of them, you're favoring one player who isn't even going to be here in two weeks.

_________________
You can always do something else.

[Bob Lamm]

[GlennMacGrady]

[Luuuc]

The obvious problem with "Han's a stiff" is that we've already seen her put up 20 points in 22 minutes vs Team USA in a proper tournament.

[ClayK]

[justintyme]

Or perhaps the most obvious of all?

She is a 19 year old rookie. She is on the team because Smith sees a ton of potential in her and wants her to develop, but she is not ready yet to perform at a WNBA level.

If she were US born, she would have just finished her freshman (or perhaps sophomore?) season in college. What Smith is likely seeing in practice is a player that is not reading plays fast enough yet and who will be taken advantage of constantly by opposing players who will get her out of position or cause her to turn the ball over.

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[Bob Lamm]

None of us know what Katie Smith sees in practice from Han or any other player. Here's what I believe: in her 44 games as Liberty head coach, Katie Smith has demonstrated that she makes poor decisions as to who to play, in what position, for how many minutes, and at what points during the game.

Those of you who refer to what Katie Smith MAY see in practice are trusting her perceptions and conclusions. I don't. Not even close. So your speculations about what she may see in practice are, for me, completely unconvincing.

[NYL_WNBA_FAN]

First off, Han is not a stiff. I’ve never seen a 6’9” 19-year-old with her offensive talent.

However, the same way Bob is asking why people are insisting she’s not ready, I’m wondering why people are insisting she should be given a chance. Yes the defense is the league’s worst. That doesn’t mean, however, that it can’t be worse than it already is. The Minnesota game was a two possession game and a missed layup away from being a 3 point game with about a min left.

My argument is with Han that game would have been a double-digit blowout. I know some people don’t think that’s important. I do. I think the team actually still has a chance to be good. (Don’t laugh). Plus, the coach certainly isn’t going to give away possessions in a game. That’s not how coaches think.

Anyway, I looked at the Vegas game where she played in garbage time and I can find easily 5 sequences minimum that show she doesn’t belong just yet.

1. She doesn’t run well. She’s the last or next to last person down the court every possession she was on the floor. Not good if you’re trying to protect the rim. And certainly not if you’re trying to run with Fowles after Liberty TOs. Watching this aspect, I’m confident that Fowles’ 19 points and 4 TOs would have been 30+ with Han on the court.
2. She doesn’t rotate well. McBride curls on one play. Han doesn’t close out and fouls. For the exact reason I named. Her lower body strength is nonexistent and she’s all legs. When she comes down she almost toppled over. This isn’t a play that would be an isolated instance. I don’t care if she plays 12 minutes or 1200 minutes. It’s not an issue of improving with greater sample size in 2019. When you’re not physically ready for something, sample size ceases to matter. I could try to lift a car for 12 minutes or 1200. Either way, I still won’t.
3. IMO she doesn’t know the plays. I didn’t see one basketball cut while she was on the floor. Screen/roll situations, it appears as though she doesn’t know where to screen. One play she actually turned her back right before the player (Boyd or Durr I think) looks for the screen.
4. She’s a terrible rebounder. That will also not improve with sample size in 2019. Her movement is not WNBA-caliber. Neither is her physical strength.

I actually think the only reason people want her to play is she’s 6’9” and is sort of a sensation. The argument that a 14th overall pick who’s shown no on-court readiness in the WNBA “just because” it might make our defense better to me is not the answer. It’s guaranteed not to. And even in a best case scenario of not making it worse, it destroys your rebounding which in turn destroys your D. Plus she’s 19, doesn’t speak much English and needed a second translator just for basketball, which probably means picking up what coaches want is a challenge. Using the theory of “it’s not working so try something else,” should we try Bias at PG when Boyd makes four mindless plays in a row? Play Nayo for 10 straight minutes if Tina is struggling? Obviously both of those are absurd. But arguing against playing a 19-year-old with physical deficiencies who doesn’t play the pro game instinctively is ludicrous?

If you wanna tank the season that’s one thing. But there’s no way Han does anything to improve your chance to win. Or even keep it the same. None. Zero. I don’t care if she’s played 12 minutes or 1,200. Her physical skills and needs for improvement couldn’t be clearer.

Down the road she’ll be good. But not in 2019. Margo Dydek (RIP) was 7’2” with some physical skill. She was far from dominant and not too great defensively. Height alone is not always an equalizer.

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The poster formerly known as LibWNBAFan.

[justintyme]

My take has nothing to do with Katie Smith, and everything to do with a 19 year old rookie being actually ready to play in the WNBA being the biggest unicorn ever.

In a league that doesn't allow players to leave college early, the deficit in experience between a 19 year old and even rookies with 4 years of college is going to be incredible. And most of those rookies struggle for minutes and look lost when they do get out there. Sure, I guess it's possible that Xu with less experience is more WNBA ready than her older peers and the reason she isn't playing is only because Smith is just utterly incompetent and doesn't understand her personnel....

But...19 year old rookie. That's a lot to ignore to accept the incompetence angle. Is there a team in the league that would play her significant minutes this year? I really, really don't see it.

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