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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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Posted: 03/17/19 12:48 pm ::: |
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Very complicated, but intriguing.
_________________ "White privilege is unseen by white pompous asses"
Feelings, nothing more than feelings...
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63976
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Posted: 03/17/19 1:54 pm ::: |
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toad455 wrote: |
Honestly, I can see the four team draft day trade going as:
Las Vegas gets the #2 pick(McCowan) & a 2020 pick from someone (NY).
New York gets the #1 pick (Ionescu) & Jantel Lavender.
Dallas gets the #7 pick, Chelsea Gray & Isabelle Harrison.
Los Angeles gets Liz Cambage and Brittany Boyd. |
Put it in an equation what everybody gives up:
#2 in 2019 + Boyd + first round in 2020 =
#1 in 2019 + Harrison =
#7 in 2019 + CGray + Lavender =
Cambage
Why would Dallas need to get anybody else involved? Look at what the Sparks would supposedly give up for Cambage and Boyd. I think Dallas might be willing to throw in Davis (Parker’s goddaughter) or maybe a second round pick in order to land those three players. Lib fans always want to overvalue Boyd in a trade.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11232
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Posted: 03/17/19 8:25 pm ::: |
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There are some issues involving the Olympics that might affect Ionescu's decision.
As I understand it, it works like this:
There are two basketball teams for the 2020 Olympics, the USNT and the 3-on-3 team.
Logic would suggest that the players who are chosen for the 3-on-3 team would be the last cuts from the USNT, but apparently USA Basketball has a points' system for making the 3-on-3 team -- and those points have to be accumulated in 3-on-3 competitions. (I don't understand all I know about this, so I'm not sure if the points are only from international play, or come from USAB events as well.)
In any event, if Ionescu goes to the WNBA this summer, apparently she would not be able to add to her point total for 3-on-3, and thus would not go to the Olympics in 2020. Being an Olympian is big for the shoe companies, so Ionescu apparently would get a much nicer shoe contract (I have no idea how much) if she's an Olympian in 2020 than if she's a top pick in 2019.
Bottom line is that the financial penalty for staying in school is less than it would be because of the bump in the shoe deal for being an Olympian, and that might tilt the scales.
Of course, from Ionescu's point of view, she has to be confident that USAB will not change the rules for Olympic 3-on-3 qualification and that she won't get hurt/play poorly and not wind up on the team anyway (I'm not sure if the points overrule everything, and if she gets hurt, say, and doesn't play for Oregon but is healthy for the Olympics, whether she still goes.)
Then again, if Oregon insures her senior season, as they did for Marcus Mariota several years ago and probably are doing for Justin Herbert this year, then that makes the financial risk even less -- though again, I don't know what that insurance entails. Is it only for career-ending injuries? What if you miss two years?
Or her WNBA team might allow to play in the 3-on-3 tournaments she needs to play in to qualify for 2020.
Tough decision for a 21-year-old ... but of course she will have good guidance (not me, of course).
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24414 Location: London
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Posted: 03/17/19 8:43 pm ::: |
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Turn pro and play well enough in the WNBA and Ionescu still has a decent chance to be in the proper team for 2020. Plum and Clarendon certainly didn't establish themselves as anything close to permanent fixtures during the Worlds, Chelsea Gray didn't show up for no obvious reason, who knows what kind of shape Diggins-Smith will be in, and then we're down to the likes of J.Thomas, Sims or K.Mitchell.
The succession plan behind Bird is still very much an open question, it just got sped up a little by Whalen decomposing/retiring a little earlier than anticipated. |
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J-Spoon
Joined: 31 Jan 2009 Posts: 6831
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Posted: 03/17/19 8:55 pm ::: |
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On the flip side Ionecu might still be in the running for an Olympic team spot. It looks like there is a spot at the back up pg position, and maybe even an additional guard wing spot. Plum has a slight edge with her World experience but is a certainty. Diggins-Smith and C. Gray are probabably still in the conversation but A WNBA season and a season over-seas might be better preparation for Ionecu to grab that last spot and as the youngest and possibly the most in the mold of future starter at the position I could see team USA passing over the others for their heir apparent to Bird. Maybe not? But I could see a player like Ionecu having the confidence to think she is a serious contender for the 12th spot in 2020
(Must have been typing the same time as Richyyy).
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11232
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Posted: 03/18/19 9:05 am ::: |
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I think the issue is a pretty much sure trip to the Olympics -- with all that implies -- on the 3-on-3 team, or rolling the dice with the big girls.
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63976
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11232
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Posted: 03/18/19 10:24 am ::: |
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Yes Shades, I altered my opinion due to updated information ... I would hope that I wouldn't stick to a position regardless of additional info.
And yes, the Olympics aren't until 2020, but the points' system for qualification for the 3-on-3 team will be affected by events that take place in the summer or 2019. And if Ionescu is in the WNBA, presumably she won't be able to accumulate any more points, and thus would not be on the 3-on-3 team because other college players would pass her by.
But all that said, I don't think it's a done deal either way, for Ionescu or any of the other eligibles. It's a complicated, potentially life-altering decision, and has to be made while going through an emotionally draining season and a year of classwork.
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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canadaball
Joined: 24 May 2013 Posts: 525
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Posted: 03/18/19 10:33 am ::: |
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Question: Seems USA will have separate teams for the Olympics, but can other countries have players on both regular team and 3x3?
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8289 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 03/18/19 10:51 am ::: |
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Having a national championship and POY awards on one's resume must be worth something in terms of overseas pay, endorsement contracts and maybe even the Olympics. Therefore, it's likely that Ionescu's decision to declare for the draft will be affected by whether she wins POY awards and whether Oregon wins the national championship this season.
On this theory, Ionescu should surely declare if Oregon wins the national championship and she wins one of the major POY awards this season.
Conversely, if neither happens this season, the probability that she declares might decrease, because she'll have less competition for POY awards as a senior and Oregon should be relatively stronger against much of the field (UConn, Notre Dame, MSSt, Louisville) next season. |
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11232
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Posted: 03/18/19 12:07 pm ::: |
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GlennMacGrady wrote: |
Having a national championship and POY awards on one's resume must be worth something in terms of overseas pay, endorsement contracts and maybe even the Olympics. Therefore, it's likely that Ionescu's decision to declare for the draft will be affected by whether she wins POY awards and whether Oregon wins the national championship this season.
On this theory, Ionescu should surely declare if Oregon wins the national championship and she wins one of the major POY awards this season.
Conversely, if neither happens this season, the probability that she declares might decrease, because she'll have less competition for POY awards as a senior and Oregon should be relatively stronger against much of the field (UConn, Notre Dame, MSSt, Louisville) next season. |
My understanding is that European teams aren't influenced much, if at all, by college awards and achievements, but by WNBA status. And it's unclear whether 3-on-3 Olympic success (and by the way, the Americans are not necessarily favorites to win a medal) factors in at all.
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24414 Location: London
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Posted: 03/18/19 12:23 pm ::: |
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Most overseas contracts are only for that season anyway, two at the max. Very quickly your price tag is going to be based on what you've proven you can offer in those overseas seasons. Of course, if cash is the overriding factor - as ClayK has implied at various points - her overseas earning potential would be significantly higher as a Romanian than an American... |
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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Posted: 03/18/19 12:46 pm ::: |
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Yep she could be on one of those unlimited budget teams.
_________________ "White privilege is unseen by white pompous asses"
Feelings, nothing more than feelings...
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canadaball
Joined: 24 May 2013 Posts: 525
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Posted: 03/18/19 1:14 pm ::: |
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[quote="Nixtreefan"]Yep she could be on one of those unlimited budget teams.[/quote
A foreign passport (see Sloot, Prince, Tolliver etc) means much more than ethnicity.Sabrina has played for USA basketball; thus her attractiveness to overseas teams limited to ability alone. Bears repeating that, despite her great passing, she has played against no quality guards (Stanford second stringer Anna Wilson shut her down), and might be one of the slowest guards around. Those putting her on the same level as past college sensations are way premature.
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24414 Location: London
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Posted: 03/18/19 1:18 pm ::: |
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She hasn't played for the USA at full senior level. At this point recent history would suggest FIBA would probably still let her switch. |
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canadaball
Joined: 24 May 2013 Posts: 525
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Posted: 03/18/19 1:38 pm ::: |
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Richyyy wrote: |
She hasn't played for the USA at full senior level. At this point recent history would suggest FIBA would probably still let her switch. |
From the FIBA rules manual: "23. A player who has played in a main official competition of FIBA (see article 2-1) after having reached his seventeenth (17) birthday may not play for a national team of another country'
There seem to be some obscure exemptions. Are you aware of any players who played for USA basketball after age 16 that were able to switch national teams? Sloot played for USA in exhibition games, but never in an official competition.
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24414 Location: London
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Posted: 03/18/19 1:47 pm ::: |
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Why should it being USA Basketball make any difference? The most recent example of a player being allowed to switch - even after playing in a senior FIBA competition - was Jonquel Jones, who played for the Bahamas and is now Bosnian. By comparison, Ionescu has only played for the US at lower/younger levels. FIBA ignores its own rules when it feels like it. |
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11232
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Posted: 03/18/19 2:13 pm ::: |
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Playing in the Olympics, though, shuts the door completely.
Again, as I understand it, being an Olympian adds enough value (in shoe contracts and otherwise) to offset the financial advantages of being a Romanian citizen, in Ionescu's case. But being an NCAA champion and/or Player of the Year does much, much less in either situation.
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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canadaball
Joined: 24 May 2013 Posts: 525
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Posted: 03/18/19 3:21 pm ::: |
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Richyyy wrote: |
Why should it being USA Basketball make any difference? The most recent example of a player being allowed to switch - even after playing in a senior FIBA competition - was Jonquel Jones, who played for the Bahamas and is now Bosnian. By comparison, Ionescu has only played for the US at lower/younger levels. FIBA ignores its own rules when it feels like it. |
Big difference....Jones had to get the approval of the Bahama Basketball Association https://ewnews.com/jones-denounces-bahamian-citizenship
After age 16, Sabrina has played on USA team in international competition: 2017 U 24 Four Nations, (plus last year's 3x3...not sure that would count)). It would appear she would need approval from USA basketball to switch country, and, as a general policy, I do not think that has ever been done. One saying going around is that USA basketball wants to lock up promising players.
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24414 Location: London
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Posted: 03/18/19 4:20 pm ::: |
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canadaball wrote: |
Richyyy wrote: |
Why should it being USA Basketball make any difference? The most recent example of a player being allowed to switch - even after playing in a senior FIBA competition - was Jonquel Jones, who played for the Bahamas and is now Bosnian. By comparison, Ionescu has only played for the US at lower/younger levels. FIBA ignores its own rules when it feels like it. |
Big difference....Jones had to get the approval of the Bahama Basketball Association https://ewnews.com/jones-denounces-bahamian-citizenship
After age 16, Sabrina has played on USA team in international competition: 2017 U 24 Four Nations, (plus last year's 3x3...not sure that would count)). It would appear she would need approval from USA basketball to switch country, and, as a general policy, I do not think that has ever been done. One saying going around is that USA basketball wants to lock up promising players. |
Actually as I understand it the US actively doesn't stand in the way if players want to play for other countries. They want players on their squads who want to be there, and they've got more than enough strength in depth to stick to that policy and win anyway. Bria Hartley, Kia Vaughn and Tiffany Hayes come to mind as recent players who represented Team USA at youth levels and have gone on to play for other countries (although I'm sure there are plenty more). USA Basketball have even relaxed their "once you choose someone else you're dead to us" policy by inviting Hayes back into the squad when FIBA decided that European Games 3x3 thing didn't count.
All of this is hypothetical, by the way. Players very rarely switch away from Team USA when they're right in the mix to actually make the squad for major tournaments. It's far more common for fringe players (or ones with no chance whatsoever) to randomly discover their new love for a Montenegrin homeland (or wherever). |
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WNBA 09
Joined: 26 Jun 2009 Posts: 12647 Location: Dallas , Texas
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Posted: 03/18/19 9:12 pm ::: |
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Any WNBA draft related info in here? Just a thought ya know with the title and all that's what id expect.
_________________ 3-Time WNBA Champion-3-Time National Champion-4-Time Olympic Champion....And Yes DT "We Got Confeti" lol
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toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005 Posts: 22482 Location: NJ
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Posted: 03/19/19 12:36 pm ::: |
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WNBA 09 wrote: |
Any WNBA draft related info in here? Just a thought ya know with the title and all that's what id expect. |
Seriously. Take this outside already guys. Mods?
_________________ LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63976
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Posted: 03/19/19 1:53 pm ::: |
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The draft is being held on April 10 at Nike Headquarters, same location as last year.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005 Posts: 22482 Location: NJ
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