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Howee
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Marquette Fan
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PRballer
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Marquette Fan
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5thmantheme
Joined: 11 Apr 2016
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 Posted: 03/15/19 3:59 pm ::: |
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| Coyotes wrote: |
| 5thmantheme wrote: |
Iowa in Notre Dame's bracket, for a possible Turner on Gustafson D vs O gun fight.
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We've already seen Gustafson versus Turner and Shephard this season. |
Oops, then maybe Iowa v UConn for a Collier + Gustafson show.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 03/15/19 5:30 pm ::: |
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MAC. Charlie has three teams in. I don't really understand it. CMU has a signature win over Miami and a high enough RPI.
One of Ohio or Buffalo will win the MAC and get the auto bid. But why will the loser get in? Neither have a signature win and both have bad losses.
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if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
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summertime blues
Joined: 16 Apr 2013
Posts: 7817
Location: Shenandoah Valley
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| Posted: 03/15/19 5:38 pm ::: |
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| myrtle wrote: |
MAC. Charlie has three teams in. I don't really understand it. CMU has a signature win over Miami and a high enough RPI.
One of Ohio or Buffalo will win the MAC and get the auto bid. But why will the loser get in? Neither have a signature win and both have bad losses. |
Because as I've been saying for years, Charlie is an idiot.
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Don't take life so serious. It ain't nohows permanent.
It takes 3 years to build a team and 7 to build a program.--Conventional Wisdom
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 66881
Location: Where the action is
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| Posted: 03/15/19 6:16 pm ::: |
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| myrtle wrote: |
MAC. Charlie has three teams in. I don't really understand it. CMU has a signature win over Miami and a high enough RPI.
One of Ohio or Buffalo will win the MAC and get the auto bid. But why will the loser get in? Neither have a signature win and both have bad losses. |
What do you consider a signature win?
They both have better qualifications than UCF, who has been comfortably in. Kentucky has a worse loss than either of them and only one win that's marginally better than either of their best wins.
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purduefanatic
Joined: 10 Aug 2011
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Coyotes
Joined: 28 Jan 2018
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012
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Location: Minnesota
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| Posted: 03/15/19 8:24 pm ::: |
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| myrtle wrote: |
MAC. Charlie has three teams in. I don't really understand it. CMU has a signature win over Miami and a high enough RPI.
One of Ohio or Buffalo will win the MAC and get the auto bid. But why will the loser get in? Neither have a signature win and both have bad losses. |
Buffalo beat South Dakota St (projected 6 seed by Creme) in non-conference play. That's what has Buffalo now, after beating Central Michigan, in good shape to be an at-large now even if they lose tomorrow.
Ohio only has one loss that may be bad, but their best win is a win over Central Michigan, and nothing else except splitting with Buffalo during the regular season. If they don't win tomorrow, they may be on shakier ground.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 03/15/19 8:57 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
What do you consider a signature win?
They both have better qualifications than UCF, who has been comfortably in. |
A: Miami
B: I've never said, or thought, that UCF should be in.
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For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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Location: Where the action is
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| Posted: 03/15/19 9:18 pm ::: |
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| myrtle wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
What do you consider a signature win?
They both have better qualifications than UCF, who has been comfortably in. |
A: Miami
B: I've never said, or thought, that UCF should be in. |
Who would you put in instead of Buffalo/Ohio? TCU? Butler? St Mary's?
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 03/15/19 9:37 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| myrtle wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
What do you consider a signature win?
They both have better qualifications than UCF, who has been comfortably in. |
A: Miami
B: I've never said, or thought, that UCF should be in. |
Who would you put in instead of Buffalo/Ohio? TCU? Butler? St Mary's? |
Possibly JMU. They have one bad loss. No real good ones. But they clearly won their conference which has a decent RPI for a mid. And likely lost in their tourney due to injuries. I'd want to know that those players would be back. But if so, I'd reward their performance in conference.
But in general, I don't really know who deserves it more...just that there are several teams that sure look like they DON'T. I'd look for teams that maybe had a bad beginning but got a lot better as the year progressed.
Maybe another B1G team. They had a really competitive conference.
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For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 5155
Location: Carson City
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| Posted: 03/15/19 11:01 pm ::: |
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The issue of the MAC teams points out the significance of the strength of conference. This year the MAC has 4 top 50 teams according to the RPI. That means that the teams can get top 50 wins in conference and not have to rely on non-conference wins alone. These are the 4 teams:
Central Michigan (31 -RPI) 2-1 Top 25 (W-15 UCF,18 Miami L-3 Louisville)
4-4 26-50 (W-33 Buffalo(2), 29 Ohio (1), 39 Quinnipiac, L-26 South Dakota St, 33 Buffalo, 29 Ohio, 44 Miami(O))sub 50 L 2 (84-Toledo, 168-Tulane)
Buffalo (33) 0-2 (L-4 Stanford, 5-Oregon) 5-3 (W-26 South Dakota St, 31-CMU, 29 Ohio, 44 Miami(O)(2), L-29 Ohio, 31 CMU(2)sub 50 L 4(83 Kent St, 118 Dayton, 162 Akron, 218 Bowling Green)
Ohio (29) 0-0 4-3 (W-31 CMU, 33 Buffalo, 44 Miami(O)(2), L-31 CMU, 33 Ohio, 44 Miami(O)) sub 50 L 1 84 Toledo. Best N/C win 51 Lamar
Miami(O) (44) 0-1 3 (Louisville) 2-4 (W-29 Ohio, 31 CMU, L-29 Ohio(2), 33 Buffalo(2))sub 50 L 2(83 Kent St, 124 NIU) Best N/C win 77 Cincinnati
CMU has 2 top 25 wins and 6 top 50 wins with only 2 bad losses which is clearly good enough to make the Tournament.
Buffalo has a solid resume with 5 top 50 wins, but they also have 4 bad losses. Only 19 teams have more than 5 top 50 wins. Comparable teams would be Missouri (5 top 50 wins, 4 sub 50 losses) Rutgers (4 top 50 wins, 3 sub 50 losses) Michigan St (6 top 50 wins, 6 sub 50 wins) Indiana (5 top 50 wins, 6 sub 50 losses, Clemson (4 top 50 wins, 5 sub 50 losses) Tennessee (6 top 50 wins, 4 sub 50 losses). Most of those teams are in, I think Buffalo will make it also.
Ohio has 4 top 50 wins, even if all of them are against MAC teams. Lamar could actually make the top 50 as well with a win in the Southland final. They only have one bad loss and that was to a top 100 team. Given the alternatives I expect that Ohio will also get in.
Miami(O) isn't close, but by being in the top 50 they make the resumes of the other MAC teams significantly better.
There is a problem in this analysis which is that it uses the RPI to rank the teams, so a win over Miami(O) is seen as better than a win over Tennessee, a win over UCF is better than a win over UCLA. But that is what the Committee uses. If you look at the first 8 out according to Charlie Crème only 2 (West Virginia and LSU have 3) have more than two top 50 wins.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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Location: Carson City
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| Posted: 03/15/19 11:26 pm ::: |
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| myrtle wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
| myrtle wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
What do you consider a signature win?
They both have better qualifications than UCF, who has been comfortably in. |
A: Miami
B: I've never said, or thought, that UCF should be in. |
Who would you put in instead of Buffalo/Ohio? TCU? Butler? St Mary's? |
Possibly JMU. They have one bad loss. No real good ones. But they clearly won their conference which has a decent RPI for a mid. And likely lost in their tourney due to injuries. I'd want to know that those players would be back. But if so, I'd reward their performance in conference.
But in general, I don't really know who deserves it more...just that there are several teams that sure look like they DON'T. I'd look for teams that maybe had a bad beginning but got a lot better as the year progressed.
Maybe another B1G team. They had a really competitive conference. |
JMU did not have a top 50 win. Their best wins are over Drexel. They also have four bad losses against UNCW, Wake Forest, Hampton and Hofstra. I agree that when you are trying to come up with the last 3 or 4 at-large teams there are no stellar resumes. But 32 teams get in at-large and unless Drake loses I believe the MAC will get 3.
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acsuc99
Joined: 10 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 03/16/19 12:07 am ::: |
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I am too lazy to scroll this thread, did Charlie Creme explain why MISS STATE would be a 1 over Louisville? The VILLE seems to have better NUMBERS.
What's THAT all about Charlie?
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 03/16/19 11:58 am ::: |
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| I see they are supposed to announce the debatable eight during sportscenter on Sunday...so 4 of whom will be in and 4 of whom out. Seems kind of like torture for those 8 teams.
_________________
For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 5155
Location: Carson City
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| Posted: 03/16/19 1:14 pm ::: |
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| acsuc99 wrote: |
I am too lazy to scroll this thread, did Charlie Creme explain why MISS STATE would be a 1 over Louisville? The VILLE seems to have better NUMBERS.
What's THAT all about Charlie? |
Crème gave 2 reasons for Mississippi St. First was how big the Louisville loss to Notre Dame was. Second was that Mississippi St got the nod because they were both a regular season and tournament champion.
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huskiemaniac
Joined: 24 Nov 2004
Posts: 1049
Location: NE CT
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purduefanatic
Joined: 10 Aug 2011
Posts: 2819
Location: Indiana
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| Posted: 03/17/19 6:12 pm ::: |
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| huskiemaniac wrote: |
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/sports/ncaa-bracket-selection-sunday-net-rating.html?fbclid=IwAR3HVau5kAUiPIc97imAAgBTUeBvBHA0hqE1BG8zvWaG847cgkhYUkCtz2A
Apologies if this article has already been linked/discussed. |
The NET is only used for men's basketball
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 03/17/19 6:20 pm ::: |
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Very interesting. The NCAA has abandoned RPI for men's basketball in favor of a more advanced metric called NET. As the article suggests, NET is closest to Georgia Tech's LMRC (Bayesian) rating and KenPom's main rating. LMRC also rates women's basketball teams, and I've suggested it to pilight for his Fun Bracket. Here is the LMRC (Bayesian) page for WCBB:
https://www2.isye.gatech.edu/~jsokol/lrmcW/ |
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huskiemaniac
Joined: 24 Nov 2004
Posts: 1049
Location: NE CT
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| Posted: 03/17/19 7:24 pm ::: |
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| purduefanatic wrote: |
| huskiemaniac wrote: |
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/sports/ncaa-bracket-selection-sunday-net-rating.html?fbclid=IwAR3HVau5kAUiPIc97imAAgBTUeBvBHA0hqE1BG8zvWaG847cgkhYUkCtz2A
Apologies if this article has already been linked/discussed. |
The NET is only used for men's basketball |
Indeed.
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