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purduefanatic
Joined: 10 Aug 2011
Posts: 2819
Location: Indiana
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 Posted: 03/09/19 11:13 am ::: |
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| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| purduefanatic wrote: |
| Shades wrote: |
| Does it matter? Has anybody ever tracked his success rate? |
Amen. He is usually pretty close on the teams that make it (well duh, I think most of us in here can do that) but his placement and seeds aren't always that great, esp the lower seeds. |
I agree the placements are usually off and I think some of his match-ups tend to be off. But I like to look at the predictions and there aren't nearly as many as there are for the Men's Tourney so this is one of the ones I look at. |
Oh I look at it as well. It's always fun to speculate. I just take them all with a grain of salt.
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acsuc99
Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 725
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| Posted: 03/10/19 11:22 pm ::: |
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How can selcom put the weakest 1 seed with Oregon now that they probably moved below Stanford on the S Curve to 7?
Shouldn't Ville-MSU be together if the last 1 seed is between them?
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summertime blues
Joined: 16 Apr 2013
Posts: 7826
Location: Shenandoah Valley
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| Posted: 03/10/19 11:27 pm ::: |
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| My theory is that ESPN employs Charlie to give us something to yell at the TV about besides the news.
_________________
Don't take life so serious. It ain't nohows permanent.
It takes 3 years to build a team and 7 to build a program.--Conventional Wisdom
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
Posts: 14550
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| Posted: 03/11/19 12:30 am ::: |
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| acsuc99 wrote: |
How can selcom put the weakest 1 seed with Oregon now that they probably moved below Stanford on the S Curve to 7?
Shouldn't Ville-MSU be together if the last 1 seed is between them? |
You're assuming a true S curve, but they use geographic considerations, as well as travel expense and other financial considerations, to distort the competitive structure. And there are other rules about conference affiliations that also come into play.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 5155
Location: Carson City
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| Posted: 03/11/19 1:00 am ::: |
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| acsuc99 wrote: |
How can selcom put the weakest 1 seed with Oregon now that they probably moved below Stanford on the S Curve to 7?
Shouldn't Ville-MSU be together if the last 1 seed is between them? |
That isn't the way the Women's Tournament works. There is a great geographical component that works along with some questionable choices. At this point it is a near foregone conclusion that Notre Dame will be 1 in Chicago, Connecticut will be 1 in Albany, Baylor will be 1 in Greensboro and Oregon will be 2 in Portland. Either Mississippi St or Louisville will be 1 in Portland. The other will probably be put in Albany. Even with their win I still have Stanford Overall number 7 and they should go to Chicago, leaving Iowa in Greensboro, but I wouldn't be shocked if those 2 were switched. As for competitive balance, the S-curve is hardly ever used. The Committee looks to balance the divisions by having the combined total of the top 4 seeds in each region add up to 34 (based on their overall 1-16 ranking) and even within that they have wiggle room of generally 3 points. A bracket could be completely balanced by having the 1, 5, 12 and 16 seeds.
It is also hard to know how the Committee will rank the teams. My rankings right now are
1. Baylor
2 Notre Dame
3 UConn
4 Louisville
5 Mississippi St
6 Oregon
7 Stanford
8 Iowa
9 Miami
10 Maryland
11 Syracuse
12 North Carolina St
13 Iowa St
14 South Carolina
15 Oregon St
16 Texas A&M or
16 Marquette (if they win Big East)
These are my perceptions, but I haven't looked closely at the numbers after the conference tourneys. Iowa St would move to a 3 seed with a win over Baylor
If it were me I would have Greensboro - Baylor, Stanford, North Carolina St, South Carolina
Chicago - Notre Dame, Iowa, Maryland, Iowa St
Albany - UConn, Mississippi St, Syracuse, Oregon St
Portland - Louisville, Oregon, Miami, Texas A&M or Marquette
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011
Posts: 1273
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| Posted: 03/12/19 11:48 am ::: |
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| I see Charlie has Quinnipiac vs Marquette in a first round game. Does he really think that or is he tweaking Marquette fans?
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 32335
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| Posted: 03/12/19 12:05 pm ::: |
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In one sense we would be happy to be in Greensboro. We beat Baylor once so know we can do it...if we got that far. On the other hand, Baylor would be really up for it - so the revenge factor might be in play. And I'm not sure our secret weapon (Coffee) could make 3-4 from three again.
The team we'd like to get a shot at would be Louisville.., or send us to Albany and see if we can mess with UConn.
_________________
For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012
Posts: 2539
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 32335
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Oldfandepot2
Joined: 05 Jul 2013
Posts: 996
Location: Northeast
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 5155
Location: Carson City
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| Posted: 03/12/19 7:24 pm ::: |
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| myrtle wrote: |
The team we'd like to get a shot at would be Louisville.., or send us to Albany and see if we can mess with UConn. |
I think the most likely place is Chicago. There is no chance of Louisville because they will either be 1 in n the West or a 2 in either Greensboro or Albany. Albany or Greensboro are also possible if the Committee wants Iowa in Chicago.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 5155
Location: Carson City
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| Posted: 03/12/19 7:27 pm ::: |
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| In my earlier post I listed Miami as 9. Upon checking I would move the Hurricanes to 11 and move Maryland and Syracuse up 1 slot each
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 32335
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| Posted: 03/12/19 8:50 pm ::: |
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| calbearman76 wrote: |
| myrtle wrote: |
The team we'd like to get a shot at would be Louisville.., or send us to Albany and see if we can mess with UConn. |
I think the most likely place is Chicago. There is no chance of Louisville because they will either be 1 in n the West or a 2 in either Greensboro or Albany. Albany or Greensboro are also possible if the Committee wants Iowa in Chicago. |
yeah, I know. But I think ND is really the #1, #1...which is why I'm not so excited about going there...but whatever, you have to win to move on.
_________________
For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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PRballer
Joined: 18 Apr 2007
Posts: 2544
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| Posted: 03/14/19 8:56 am ::: |
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| Creme getting lazy! How can you have Louisville (2) and Syracuse (3) on the same side of the Albany bracket?!
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012
Posts: 2539
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Coyotes
Joined: 28 Jan 2018
Posts: 1467
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| Posted: 03/14/19 9:09 am ::: |
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| PRballer wrote: |
| Creme getting lazy! How can you have Louisville (2) and Syracuse (3) on the same side of the Albany bracket?! |
I haven’t looked, but if there are more than 5 ACC seeds, and 9 ACC teams, they have to meet before regionals somewhere.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 32335
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| Posted: 03/14/19 10:14 am ::: |
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| Coyotes wrote: |
| PRballer wrote: |
| Creme getting lazy! How can you have Louisville (2) and Syracuse (3) on the same side of the Albany bracket?! |
I haven’t looked, but if there are more than 5 ACC seeds, and 9 ACC teams, they have to meet before regionals somewhere. |
In this case, they have three #3 seeds and one #2 seed, so presumably they would all be in different brackets...and presumably the #3 seed would have to be in the bracket with their #1 seed. At least that way they wouldn't be on the same side of the bracket. But yeah, it becomes a conundrum.
_________________
For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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thefutureisbright
Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Posts: 4176
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| Posted: 03/14/19 10:35 am ::: |
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Here is NCAA site w/ Team Sheets and Nitty Gritty Report (MBB is also included in this archive) - https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx
I pulled top 35 RPI teams (NCAA Top 16 to start the list)
NCAA/Team/RPI/SOS/1-25/26-50/51-100/101-150/150+/Top 50/Top 100
1......Baylor...…..2.....3......6-1...6-0...5-0...6-0...8-0...12-1..17-1
2...….Louisville...3.....6......7-3...6-0...6-0...7-0...3-0...13-3..19-3
3...….ND...……….1...…1......12-2..2-1...9-0...6-0...1-0... 14-3..23-3
4...….U Conn.....6......31....6-2....1-0...4-0...7-0...13-0..7-2....11-2
5...….Oregon.....5.....10....6-2...6-2...6-0...2-0...8-0...12-4..18-4
6...….Miss St.....8.....45....5-1...3-1...9-0...2-0...11-0..8-2...17-2
7...….Stanford...4.....7......5-2...5-1...9-1...4-0...5-0....10-3.19-4
8...….Iowa...…...7.....8......4-2...5-3...6-1...5-0...6-0....9-5...15-6
9...….NC State...9.....14....3-4...5-1...8-0...5-0...5-0....8-5...16-5
10....Maryland...14...68....2-2...5-2...6-0...7-0...8-0....7-4...13-4
11....Oregon St..24...69....2-6...4-0...6-0...3-1...9-0....6-6...12-6
12....SCarolina...19...11....2-8...3-0...4-1...3-0...9-0....5-8...9-9
13....Miami FL,...18...37....5-4...1-2...6-2...4-0...8-0....6-6...12-8
14....Iowa St.....11...5......2-4...6-2...3-2...5-0...9-0....8-6...11-8
15....Syracuse...10...4......5-6...4-0...5-1...7-1...3-0....9-6...14-7
16....Texas A&M.17...25....3-3...3-1...5-3...2-0...11-0..6-4...11-7
……….Marquette..12...22....2-4...2-0...9-2...8-1...5-0....4-4...13-6
……….Gonzaga....13...52....1-1...4-3...6-0...4-0...13-0..5-4...11-4
……….UCF...……….15...40....0-4...1-1...4-0...8-0...13-1..1-5....5-5
……….AZ St...…...23...13....2-6...2-3...5-1...1-0...10-0..4-9....9-10
……….Kentucky...22...42....1-5...4-1...7-0...3-0...9-1....5-6....12-6
……….Drake...…..16...49....1-3...2-1...5-1...5-0...11-0..3-4....8-5
……….FSU...……...21...33....3-5...1-2...7-1...7-0...5-0....4-7....11-8
……….DePaul...….20...44....1-5...1-0...10-1..7-1...7-0....2-5....12-6
……….Rutgers.....30...28....1-5...3-1...6-2...5-1...7-0....4-6....10-8
……….C.Mich……..28...61....2-1...4-3...3-1...3-0...13-1..6-4....9-5
……….SDakSt…….27...63....1-3...3-2...3-1...1-0...18-0..4-5....7-6
……….Missouri....31...27....3-3...2-3...6-3...1-0...11-1..5-6....11-9
……….Rice...……..35...196..0-1...0-2...2-0...5-0...18-0..0-3....2-3
……….JMU...……..25...135..0-1...0-0...5-0...7-2...13-1..0-1....5-1
……….BYU...……..26...70....3-0...1-2...5-2...2-1...14-1..4-3....9-4
……….Texas...…..29...23....1-5...2-2...5-2...5-0...10-0..3-7....8-9
……….Kansas St..32...17....0-8...2-0...7-2...4-0...8-1....2-8....9-10
……….UCLA ……….34...12....3-7...3-2...4-1...5-2...5-0....6-9...10-10
……….Ohio...…....33...111..0-0...3-3...5-1...4-0...14-0..3-3....8-4
Last edited by thefutureisbright on 03/14/19 4:02 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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5thmantheme
Joined: 11 Apr 2016
Posts: 540
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| Posted: 03/14/19 3:53 pm ::: |
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Minnesota v Marquette would be an interesting match-up, and get lots of local coverage and attendance.
Baylor and Miss St as the 2 in the same bracket, is the only way to keep good odds of a McCowan and Brown show down. I get it that Bird versus Magic is Not what the NCAA thinks is it's job, but still.
Iowa in Notre Dame's bracket, for a possible Turner on Gustafson D vs O gun fight.
Missouri and Iowa State to see how much kaboom happens with Cunningham and Carleton.
Oregon > Stanford on point diff head to head, and injury.
Stanford 2 lined with Maryland 3 who could go small at close out.
otherwise ifs and nuts
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Coyotes
Joined: 28 Jan 2018
Posts: 1467
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| Posted: 03/14/19 5:30 pm ::: |
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| 5thmantheme wrote: |
Minnesota v Marquette would be an interesting match-up, and get lots of local coverage and attendance.
Baylor and Miss St as the 2 in the same bracket, is the only way to keep good odds of a McCowan and Brown show down. I get it that Bird versus Magic is Not what the NCAA thinks is it's job, but still.
Iowa in Notre Dame's bracket, for a possible Turner on Gustafson D vs O gun fight.
Missouri and Iowa State to see how much kaboom happens with Cunningham and Carleton.
Oregon > Stanford on point diff head to head, and injury.
Stanford 2 lined with Maryland 3 who could go small at close out.
otherwise ifs and nuts |
We've already seen Gustafson versus Turner and Shephard this season.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 32335
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| Posted: 03/14/19 7:04 pm ::: |
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| 5thmantheme wrote: |
Stanford 2 lined with Maryland 3 who could go small at close out.
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we'd be quite happy with that matchup.
_________________
For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005
Posts: 3575
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| Posted: 03/14/19 7:25 pm ::: |
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| 5thmantheme wrote: |
Minnesota v Marquette would be an interesting match-up, and get lots of local coverage and attendance.
Baylor and Miss St as the 2 in the same bracket, is the only way to keep good odds of a McCowan and Brown show down. I get it that Bird versus Magic is Not what the NCAA thinks is it's job, but still.
Iowa in Notre Dame's bracket, for a possible Turner on Gustafson D vs O gun fight.
Missouri and Iowa State to see how much kaboom happens with Cunningham and Carleton.
Oregon > Stanford on point diff head to head, and injury.
Stanford 2 lined with Maryland 3 who could go small at close out.
otherwise ifs and nuts |
I don't think Minnesota is real likely to make the NCAA Tournament. Marquette-Quinnipiac like Charlie Creme has would be interesting as it would be a rematch of 2017 when 12 seed Quinnipiac won but I don't think it will happen because I don't think the NCAA will want to do the rematch.
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 4241
Location: Minnesota
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| Posted: 03/14/19 7:28 pm ::: |
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| Marquette Fan wrote: |
| I don't think Minnesota is real likely to make the NCAA Tournament. Marquette-Quinnipiac like Charlie Creme has would be interesting as it would be a rematch of 2017 when 12 seed Quinnipiac won but I don't think it will happen because I don't think the NCAA will want to do the rematch. |
I don't know who Minnesota is supposed to be, since Minnesota obviously isn't in the NCAA Tournament.
The committee was evil enough to make Miami rematch with Quinnipiac last year, so I couldn't count them being evil enough to make Marquette have to play them again out.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
Posts: 14550
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| Posted: 03/14/19 8:37 pm ::: |
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| 5thmantheme wrote: |
Minnesota v Marquette would be an interesting match-up, and get lots of local coverage and attendance.
Baylor and Miss St as the 2 in the same bracket, is the only way to keep good odds of a McCowan and Brown show down. I get it that Bird versus Magic is Not what the NCAA thinks is it's job, but still.
Iowa in Notre Dame's bracket, for a possible Turner on Gustafson D vs O gun fight.
Missouri and Iowa State to see how much kaboom happens with Cunningham and Carleton.
Oregon > Stanford on point diff head to head, and injury.
Stanford 2 lined with Maryland 3 who could go small at close out.
otherwise ifs and nuts |
It would make sense for Iowa to be in Chicago, BUT. . . .
If Creme is right that ND is the 1 in Chicago, and Miami, NCSt, Syracuse and Maryland are the four 3 seeds, then Maryland needs to be the 3 in Chicago to avoid doubling up the ACC top 4 seeds. Then you have to put Iowa somewhere else to avoid putting the top two Big10 teams in the same region.
It's like a Rubik's cube. Every move has a cascade of effects.
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005
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. I really don't care who they play or where they play as I'm so bummed about them blowing their chance to host. I hope they can play Fri/Sun because that's much better for me logistically. And I hope they can avoid dropping to an 8/9 seed.