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Evaluating teams for the NCAA Tournament
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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/11/19 2:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PRballer wrote:
Regardless of tonight’s outcome, do you have UCF in the field? Of course if they win they get in. :)


I have them in and rate them slightly higher than Charlie Creme. While they have only 1 top 50 win (Quinnipiac), they also beat Villanova who just fell out. But what puts them in is that they have only 1 bad loss, the others are to UConn, Syracuse and Central Michigan. They have 5 top 100 wins, and while that might not be important evaluating a top 4 seed it does count when trying to get in. I expect a 9 seed if they lose tonight.


ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 03/11/19 3:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
PRballer wrote:
Regardless of tonight’s outcome, do you have UCF in the field? Of course if they win they get in. Smile


I have them in and rate them slightly higher than Charlie Creme. While they have only 1 top 50 win (Quinnipiac), they also beat Villanova who just fell out. But what puts them in is that they have only 1 bad loss, the others are to UConn, Syracuse and Central Michigan. They have 5 top 100 wins, and while that might not be important evaluating a top 4 seed it does count when trying to get in. I expect a 9 seed if they lose tonight.


So how does that get them in over, say, VaTech who also beat Nova, but in addition beat #18 Miami and #28 Rutgers and unlike UCF doesn't have a loss to the RPI 166 team or to any other 100+ team. Much better wins, no horrible losses. If UCF had played VT's ACC schedule, they'd easily have double digit losses too. UCF hasn't demonstrated they are capable of beating anyone with a pulse.


pilight



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PostPosted: 03/11/19 3:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
PRballer wrote:
Regardless of tonight’s outcome, do you have UCF in the field? Of course if they win they get in. Smile


I have them in and rate them slightly higher than Charlie Creme. While they have only 1 top 50 win (Quinnipiac), they also beat Villanova who just fell out. But what puts them in is that they have only 1 bad loss, the others are to UConn, Syracuse and Central Michigan. They have 5 top 100 wins, and while that might not be important evaluating a top 4 seed it does count when trying to get in. I expect a 9 seed if they lose tonight.


Their biggest problem is that 2/3 of their schedule is outside the top 100. Compare their resume to a team like Ohio, Creme's last team in, and they don't look that good (unless you think getting blown out by UConn takes some great skill).



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myrtle



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PostPosted: 03/11/19 3:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
UCF hasn't demonstrated they are capable of beating anyone with a pulse.


Laughing



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/11/19 5:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The comparison of UCF and Virginia Tech is intriguing. UCF played a more difficult non-conference schedule (NCSOS 37(UCF) 234 (VaT)), they have a better record 26-5 vs 20-11 despite a tougher overall SOS, 55 vs 69, and they are 15 in the RPI vs 75. On the other hand VaT has two good wins over Rutgers and Miami. For me the difference is the 4-0 record over the 51-100 vs 4-3 for Vat.. The quadrant 1 records are 1-4 vs 2-8., a push to me. And finally Virginia Tech was only 6-10 in conference, finishing in a tie for 10th. If wins were the only thing that mattered I would take Virginia Tech, but overall I like UCF


myrtle



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PostPosted: 03/11/19 6:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

watching UCF today...of course it is v. UConn, but they look like a team VaTech would love to play a playin game against.

But...I really really don't like any team with a losing conference record, which is why I always say Tenn shouldn't be in. Actually it's just one of the reasons, but it's a big one!



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ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 03/11/19 6:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
The comparison of UCF and Virginia Tech is intriguing. UCF played a more difficult non-conference schedule (NCSOS 37(UCF) 234 (VaT)), they have a better record 26-5 vs 20-11 despite a tougher overall SOS, 55 vs 69, and they are 15 in the RPI vs 75. On the other hand VaT has two good wins over Rutgers and Miami. For me the difference is the 4-0 record over the 51-100 vs 4-3 for Vat.. The quadrant 1 records are 1-4 vs 2-8., a push to me. And finally Virginia Tech was only 6-10 in conference, finishing in a tie for 10th. If wins were the only thing that mattered I would take Virginia Tech, but overall I like UCF


You overlooked UCF's loss to 166. That's worse than losing to any of those ACC teams. ZERO of UCF's conf wins were against tournament teams.

At least on the men's side they usually say they want to see that teams have demonstrated the ability to win games in the tournament. VT has done that; UCF has not.

BTW, UCF is in the process of getting its ass kicked again tonight.


And now their Q1 is 1-5.


pilight



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PostPosted: 03/11/19 9:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
ZERO of UCF's conf wins were against tournament teams


Untrue! Quinnipiac is tournament bound, as is Mercer.



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purduefanatic



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PostPosted: 03/11/19 9:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:
ZERO of UCF's conf wins were against tournament teams


Untrue! Quinnipiac is tournament bound, as is Mercer.


I don't think Q-Pac or Mercer is in the AAC. If they were, they wouldn't be heading to the NCAA Tournament either.


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