RebKell's Junkie Boards

[calbearman76]

This thread will be used to evaluate teams for the NCAA tournament. The rankings I use will be the RPI (from Nolan), the ELO (from Nolan) and the Massey Ratings. The ELO is a rating based on wins and losses only and Massey (MAS) is a score-based system. I will also refer to the AP and Coaches (COA) polls.

The first group I will evaluate is the top 7 teams. These teams are nearly unanimously rated as the top 7 (Mississippi St is actually 9 in RPI, Iowa is 7)

Team (RPI,ELO,MAS,AP,COA) WL Top 10 WL 11-25 WL 26-50(Top 5 Wins by RPI) (Losses by RPI)


Baylor (2,1,1,1,1) 1-1 4-0 6-0 (5,12,12,15,20) (4)
UConn (5,2,2,2,2) 1-2 4-0 1-0 (1,15,17,17,25) (2,3)
NDame (1,3,3,4,4) 3-1 6-1 4-1 (3,7,8,11,14) (5,16,31)
L'ville (3,4,4.3,3) 2-1 4-1 4-0 (5,10,18,20,21) (1,16)
Miss St(9,5,5,5,5) 0-1 4-0 3-1 (11,15,18,19,29) (6,30)
Oregon (6,6,6,6,6) 3-0 2-1 4-2 (4,9,10,20,22) (22,32,39)
Stanford (4,7,7,7.7) 1-1 3-1 5-1 (2,20,20,22,32) (6,14,38,65)


It is hard to make a case against Baylor as the number 1 overall seed. The Bears have only 1 loss at Stanford and have enough good wins to justify the ranking. The wins aren't as good as the numbers indicate though because Iowa St is 12 in the RPI but as low as 25 in the ELO. If Baylor loses another game they will stay as a #1, but will probably fall below the ACC champion (Notre Dame or Louisville)

Connecticut has only 2 losses, both on the road to top 4 teams, and they also have a road win against Notre Dame. But other than the ND win there is little to support their case for being a top team. Two of their top 25 wins are to UCF, a team that is only 29 on the ELO and 46 in Massey. I woould put them as #4 right now, but unless they lose another game they will be the #1 seed in Albany.

Notre Dame has played the toughest schedule, including 7 top 25 teams non-conference. They have 3 top 10 wins (only Oregon has as many), 9 top 25 wins (3 more than anyone else) and 13 top 50 wins. They lost to North Carolina, but so did Louisville. Given their much tougher schedule I believe they should be #2 now, but the overall #2 will most likely be decided in the ACC Championship game and will most likely be rewarded with a trip to Chicago.

Louisville has only 2 losses, but unlike Notre Dame played only 4 top 25 teams non-conference. I have them #3 for now, but an ACC Championship will get them up to #2.

Oregon lost two games in the past week due to an injury to Ruthy Hebard. I believe they could have been the overall number 1 seed if they had stayed with only one loss, but now they are a solid #2 seed probably in need of an upset to move back to the 1 line. With a Pac-12 Championship they will still be in Portland, but if Oregon St wins out they could be placed in Portland instead of the Ducks. Currently I have them #5

Mississippi St is sweeping through the SEC which used to be a guaranteed #1 seed. But this season the SEC isn't that good and the loss to Missouri most likely assures they will be a #2 seed. They played only 3 top 50 schools non-conference, and with some of the cupcakes they are only 9 in the RPI.

Stanford is in a funny position. The Cardinal is the number 7 team, with little chance of moving up or down, short of a major upset to one of the Washington schools. Even with a Pac 12 championship they will still probably be shipped East as a 2 seed.

The real question is how these teams will be placed. Baylor is closer to Chicago than Greensboro, but the draw looks more elegant with Baylor in Greensboro. The ACC should get the #1 seed in Chicago as both Notre Dame and Louisville are within driving distance of the Windy City. Connecticut will be in Albany. The loser of ND-Louisville and Mississippi St will probably go Albany and Portland and it probably doesn't matter whether they are a #1 or #2 seed. Neither should be placed with overall #1 seed Baylor. And Stanford is destined for either Chicago or Greensboro.

[Howee]

[calbearman76]

Louisville also has to play NC St in the regular season. If the Cardinals lose to NC St but come back to win the ACC tourney that could confuse things more. But if both Notre Dame and Louisville win out until the ACC final I suspect the loser of that game would head west, either as a 1 or 2 seed. I would have them as a 1 and Oregon a 2, but it wouldn't really matter either way. And it would probably wind up that way even if one of them lost in the semis.

[Phil]

Nice analysis. Hard to argue with just about anything.

[calbearman76]

Group 2 - the teams that could get a top 4 seed

After the top 7 teams there are 15 more teams that at least deserve some consideration for the remaining 9 hosts. They are all of the teams ranked in the top 20 in at least one of the ratings with the exception of Central Florida, 16 in the RPI. These teams are much more closely grouped and their order will be greatly affected by the next two weeks.

Team W-L(RPI,ELO,MAS,AP,COA) WL Top 10 WL 11-25 WL 26-50(Top 5 Wins by RPI) (Losses by RPI)
(As of 2/26)

Iowa....... 22-6(7,14,14,12,11) 0-1 3-1 2-2 (11,13,24,27,39)(1,20,39,45,51,73)
NC St...... 24-3(8,10,11,10,10) 0-1 1-1 5-1 (12,31,39,40.41)(1,20,31)
Marquette. 23-5(10,15,10,13,12)0-2 2-1 2-0(25,25,29,45,53)(1,9,18,55,104)
Iowa St.... 20-7(11,25,16,20,22)0-3,2-0,4-3(18,24,37,37,47)(2,2,7,26,34,49,71)
Syracuse.. 20-7(12,20,19,17,17)0-4 3-1 3-1(16,22,25,31,37)(1,3,6,8,18,40,106)
Maryland.. 25-3(13,9,9,8,9)0-1 1-0 4-2 (15,27,36,40,45)(7,27,39)
Gonzaga... 25-3(14,22,17,16,14)1-1 0-0 1-2 (4,27,56,56,69)(1,28,28)
S Carolina 20-7(15,11,13,14,15)0-3 2-4 3-0 (17,22,30,41,43)(2,5,9,13,17,21,24)
Kentucky.. 23-5(17,13,15,11,13)0-2 1-2 5-0 (15,30,31,32,43)(3,9,15,22,205)
Miami....... 23-6(18,12,12,15,15)3-0 2-3 1-1(1,3,10,12,20)(11,20,23,41,62,73)
Arizona St. 18-8(19,23,16,21,20)0-5 1-0 3-2 (21,37,38,50,65)(2,3,4,4,6,32,38,65)
Florida St...21-6(20,19,22,22,21)2-2 1-1 1-2 (7,8,18,31,62)(1,3,18,41,41,67)
Oregon St. 23-5(21,8,8,9,8)1-3 1-2 5-0 (6,15,32,32,38)(1,4,6,19,22)
Texas A&M 21-6(22,16,23,19,18)0-1 2-2 4-1 (17,21,35,43,47)(9,12,15,30,59,67)
DePaul...... 21-7(25,17,20,-,24)0-4 0-1 1-0 (37,53,53,55,55)(1,5,10,10,12,105,140)

Later today I will add in the Coaches poll and analysis

[Nixtreefan]

Nice job Cal. I am still having heart attacks as my Trees are really up and down so I just hope you are right and those teams below cannot make a move

_________________
"White privilege is unseen by white pompous asses"
Feelings, nothing more than feelings...

[pilight]

[Nixtreefan]

So I see you want me to have more heart attacks

_________________
"White privilege is unseen by white pompous asses"
Feelings, nothing more than feelings...

[Fighting Artichoke]

[ArtBest23]

On what seed line will Maryland and Iowa end up if neither wins the Big10 tourney, which doesn't seem all that far fetched. Will the Committee permit a situation where no Big10 team hosts?

The only iron clad lock appears to be Baylor. The other four P5 tournament titles are definitely in play. Haven't seen that in a long time, if ever. (I think Miss St is the next most likely winner, but they're far from certain, in my eyes.)

[calbearman76]

[Phil]

[ArtBest23]

[calbearman76]

There is nothing more frustrating that writing an analysis of every team in the group 2 list and getting down to Oregon St when there is a power outage that wipes out your work, The analysis will be redone tomorrow.

[Marquette Fan]

[calbearman76]

[calbearman76]

Group 2 Analysis:

This group of 15 teams are those that have at least some claim to possibly be a host for the first two rounds. I have included most teams that are rated in the top 20 of any of the rating systems. These teams are closely grouped depending upon whether you give more weight to good wins or bad losses. Only 4 of these teams have a win over a top 10 team, Miami (3), Florida St (2), Gonzaga and Oregon St. Only 5 teams have no losses to a team outside the top 50, Oregon St (worst loss 22), South Carolina (24), Gonzaga (28), NC St (31) and Maryland (39). And only two teams (Miami 5-3 and Iowa 3-2) have winning records against the top 25.

Iowa has a solid record with some very good wins. Right now they are probably a 3 seed and have an outside shot at the final 2 seed if they win the Big 10 championship. A loss before the Big 10 final will most likely make them a 4 seed.

NC St is the current last #2 seed according to Charlie Crème. I think their resume is too thin with only 1 top 25 win, but with games left against Miami and Louisville as well as the ACC tourney they have a chance to earn that slot. Right now I see them as a #3 seed and will almost certainly be a host team.

Marquette has an interesting resume. Until a few weeks ago they didn't have a loss to a team outside the top 25. Now they have two losses (to Butler and St John's) and have also lost Erika Davenport. Their best wins are to #25 DePaul. Right now I believe Marquette is still a 4 seed, but another loss to anyone other than DePaul will knock them out of a host slot. A loss to DePaul will make their position tenuous.

Iowa St is an RPI darling. They are one of 3 teams in the Big 12 with 5 losses, but while they are 11 while Texas is 26 and West Virginia is 71. The Cyclones did have good non-conference wins over Miami and Drake, but lost to Iowa and South Dakota. They look like a #4 seed right now and still have to play at Austin. They need to either beat Texas in the regular season or get to the Big 12 final or they may lose their host spot.

Syracuse has had several chances to prove they deserve a host spot and have constantly come up short. Now they need to beat Florida St and probably get to the ACC final to host.

Maryland is in a very similar position to Iowa. Iowa has played the better schedule and beat Maryland head-to-head but the Terps are still a game ahead in the Big Ten. The winner of the Big 10 tourney still has an outside shot at the last 2 seed, but more likely they would wind up with a 3 if they win and either a 3 or a 4 if they don't.


Gonzaga is seen by Charlie Crème as a 4 seed, but I don't see it. The Zags are 2-3 against the top 50 teams, every one else on the list has at least 4 wins. They beat Stanford but lost twice to BYU. Spokane will support the Zags if they get to host but I don't think they deserve it.

South Carolina has no bad losses, but few good wins. They are 2-7 against the top 25. If they can beat Mississippi St and then win the SEC tournament they could get 2 seed consideration, but right now they look like a #4 seed.

[calbearman76]

Group 2 Analysis (part 2)

Kentucky would be looking good for a top 4 seed if it wasn't for a pesky loss to Mississippi. As it is they play Texas A&M for third place in the SEC on Thursday, and a win gives them a good chance of getting a 4 seed. They would have to make at least the SEC semis, and a finals berth would secure it. Texas A&M is in the same position.

Miami has 3 wins over top 10 teams and is 5-3 over the top 25. This is a resume good enough for the last two seed if it weren't for losses to Virginia Tech and Purdue. As it is a win over NC St in the final game of the regular season would give the Hurricanes the inside track for that seed. In any event they should be a host team.

Arizona St has great numbers but they have been sliding of late. Absent 2 wins over the Oregon schools this weekend ASU will not be a host.

Florida St is certainly in the mix for a host slot and a win over Syracuse tomorrow would solidify that position. Right now it appears they will have a quarterfinal matchup against North Carolina St or Miami and that game could be the final determinant.

Oregon St is in position to get the final #2 seed depending on what they do along with how the ACC shakes out. The Beavers play at the Arizona schools and need 2 wins to maintain that position. The most interesting possibility is if they sweep through the Pac 12 tourney not only could they get a 2 seed but they could potentially supplant Oregon in the Portland Regional.

Texas A&M needs a win against Kentucky tomorrow. Their resume is slightly below Kentucky right now because of a loss to Lamar, but their win over Oregon St just about balances that out.

DePaul has only 1 top 50 win over Kansas St, so even with a Big East tourney win I can't see them as higher than a 5 seed.


The only other teams that I think have even a longshot of gaining a 4 seed are North Carolina and UCLA. In each case they would have to win their conference tournament, and even then they probably come up short.

[mred]

[Phil]

I had the same thought about Syracuse.

[Marquette Fan]

[calbearman76]

Group 3 - Other teams that appear to be in (or nearly in) the NCAA tournament

In addition to the 22 teams previously listed there are an additional 13 teams that have already done enough to get an at-large bid. Additionally there are at least 20 automatic bids (or more if there are upsets in conference tournaments), so there are 9 remaining spots which will be included in the fourth group.

Team W-L(RPI,ELO,MAS,AP,COA) WL Top 10 WL 11-25 WL 26-50(Top 5 Wins by RPI) (Losses by RPI)
(As of 2/27)

UCF.... 22-5(15,29,46,-,-) 0-2 0-2 0-0 (51,52,82,90,95)(6,6,12,23,166)
CMU... 20-6(23,25,33,-,-) 0-1 2-0 3-3 (15,18,32,43,43)(3,29,32,41,81,166)
Drake. 20-5(24,36,25,23,23)0-2 1-1 2-1(17,26,33,85,90)(1,7,11,29,69)
Texas. 21-7(26,18,24,18,19)0-3 1-0 2-3(11,46,50,51,72)(2,2,9,37,37,44,72)
Rutgers 19-8(27,59,30,-,-) 0-1 1-3 1-2 (13,39,55,55,67)(7,13,24,46,60,78,107)
BYU.... 21-6(28,54,59,-,-) 0-0 2-0 1-1 (14,14,50,56.95)(38,56,64,101,110,285)
SD St.. 22-6(29,31,26,-,-) 0-3 2-0 1-3 (23,24,34,70,76)(2,5,10,34,43,45)
Missouri 19-9(30,28,32,-,-)1-0 1-2 2-4 (9,22,44,47,51)(16,17,34,44,46,47,67,76,220)
NCarolina 17-12(31,41,38,-,-)2-2 0-4 4-1(1,8,33,35,40)(3,8,12,17,18,21,46,58,78,83,124,165)
UCLA.. 17-11(33,21,21,25,-)1-3 1-3 4-2(5,19,35,38,38)(4,4,5,17,20,20,31,49,55,110,135)
SDakota 22-4(34,45,29,-,25)0-0 1-1 2-1(11,29,30,69,76)(24,29,55,159)
Rice.. 23-3 (35,27,35,24,-) 0-0 0-1 0-2(62,68,87,103,118)(22,31,33)
Cal ... 16-11 (38,43,31,-,-) 1-3 1-2 2-3(4,19,28,49,56)(4,5,6,19,20,33,33,49,64,75,80)

UCF does not have a top 50 win but it is rated #15 in the RPI. They have only 1 bad loss to Tulane and 2 wins that could move into the top 50(Villanova and Quinnipiac). UCF has 2 games remaining in the regular season including a return match with Tulane and a game at Houston. Even 1 win probably secures a bid.

CMU has about as good a resume as a mid-major can have with 6 top 50 wins including 2 top 25 wins (even if 1 is against UCF). If they can win the MAC tourney they could get as high as a 6 seed.

Drake is another mid major with a stellar resume. They have neutral court wins over South Carolina and Rutgers and only one hiccup against Missouri St. If they win out they should be a 7 seed.

Texas could have been included in group 2 and if they win out they could be a 4 seed. The Longhorns have been consistently ranked in the polls, but other than a 2 point win over Iowa St they have no wins over the top 40. Depending on their finish they will likely wind up a 5 to 7 seed.

Rutgers will likely finish third in the Big 10 but a look at the numbers shows a weak resume. Unless they lose 3 straight to finish the season they are in, but without a top 50 win in the Big 10 tourney an 8 or 9 seed is likely.

BYU has beaten Gonzaga twice but otherwise this team has nothing to suggest they are a tournament team. Their loss to Southern Utah is the worst by any team in position for an at-large berth. But unless they are upset at home by WCC bottom dwellers Santa Clara and San Francisco the Cougars will be in, probably as a 9 or 10 seed.

South Dakota St is another mid-major that has done enough to be safely in. They have no sub-50 losses and 2 top 25 wins. Expect a 7 or 8 seed.

[myrtle]

[calbearman76]

[myrtle]

Basically they gamed the system. Can't blame them really. Blame the system. It just seems like someone looking at them/their record would notice that they haven't beaten anybody. But it appears that Charlie at least is just plugging them in without even looking. I mean, maybe there aren't 64 teams better, but I'd sure be looking at it.

_________________
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if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman