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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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 Posted: 02/18/19 10:14 pm ::: |
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| patsweetpat wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
So UConn has 2 wins vs the AP top 25 - nos. 5 and 13.
Miss St has 5 - nos. 11, 13, 16, 19 and 21.
Louisville has 5 - nos. 3, 16, 17, 18, and 22.
Oregon has 5 - nos. 6, 7, 12, 17, and 18, and could get another against 12 tonight.
Stanford has 3 - nos. 1, 12 and 17.
Notre Dame has 8 - nos. 4, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, 22 and 24.
In the rest of the season and conference tournament, ND will likely play three more ranked teams, as likely will Louisville, Stanford, and Oregon. Miss St will likely play two more. UConn will play none. |
Pretty sure the committee doesn't look at AP rankings, Art. |
You're right. Feel free to rework it to substitute RPI, which they do use. The pattern won't change in any material respect.
I don't see you chiming in at all the folks who refer to Massey here. The committee doesn't use that any more than they use the AP, so I'll look forward to your admonishing them too.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 02/18/19 10:44 pm ::: |
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Just to keep PatSweetPat happy:
So UConn has 2 wins vs the AP top 25 - nos. 5 and 13.
Switching to RPI doubles UConn's top 25 wins, adding two wins over 18 UCF, to make it 1, 18, 15, 18.
Miss St has 5 - nos. 11, 13, 16, 19 and 21.
Using RPI, 4 - nos. 9, 15, 21 and 22.
Louisville has 5 - nos. 3, 16, 17, 18, and 22.
RPI raises it to 6 - nos. 6, 12, 14, 20, 22, 23,
Oregon has 5 - nos. 6, 7, 12, 17, and 18, and could get another against 12 tonight.
RPI still 5 - nos. 5, 7, 12, 14, 25,
Stanford has 3 - nos. 1, 12 and 17.
RPI still 3 - Nov. 2, 14, 25.
Notre Dame has 8 - nos. 4, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, 22 and 24.
RPI still 8 - 3, 8, 9, 11, 13, 19, 20, 25,
In the rest of the season and conference tournament, ND will likely play three more ranked teams, as likely will Louisville, Stanford, and Oregon. Miss St will likely play two more. UConn will play none.
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WNBA 09
Joined: 26 Jun 2009
Posts: 12535
Location: Dallas , Texas
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| Posted: 02/18/19 10:57 pm ::: |
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Oregon
ND
Miss State
Louisville
All go down within 7 days. Baylor seems to be the true#1. No one wants to be a top seed in the tourney it seems.
Does UCONN leap frog Oregon? Or does Oregon stay #2 with the factor of hebard not playing the 2nd half and having beat oregon state just 3 days ago?
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 02/18/19 10:58 pm ::: |
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| WNBA 09 wrote: |
Oregon
ND
Miss State
Louisville
All go down within 7 days. Baylor seems to be the true#1. No one wants to be a top seed in the tourney it seems.
Does UCONN leap frog Oregon? Or does Oregon stay #2 with the factor of hebard not playing the 2nd half and having beat oregon state just 3 days ago? |
I would say only because their conference is so weak they don't have any real competition.
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bballjunkie
Joined: 12 Aug 2014
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| Posted: 02/18/19 10:59 pm ::: |
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| Probably but who knows, OR has a bad loss to Mich St who are spiraling downward.
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patsweetpat
Joined: 14 Jul 2010
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acsuc99
Joined: 10 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 02/18/19 11:10 pm ::: |
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Wow man things can change fast.
Wonder how the top 6 is gonna look now?
I think Baylor and UConn are pretty much guaranteed to win out.
Either Louisville and/or ND will lose again. Heck maybe both will.
Oregon and Miss State both lose this week and no guarantee they win out.
Based on Geography, selling tickets, and TV purposes I hope it plays out like this.
CHICAGO- 1. Notre Dame 2. Mississippi State
National title rematch. ND will bring people to Chicago.
PORTLAND- 1. Oregon 2. Louisville
Oregon needs a strong 2 seed after what I just saw should they falter. Oregon will bring fans to Portland
Albany- 1. UConn 2. Stanford
UConn will travel to Albany
Greensboro- 1. Baylor 2. NC State or South Carolina with the other being the 3.
Need NC State and South Carolina in Greensboro to sell tickets.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 02/18/19 11:11 pm ::: |
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| WNBA 09 wrote: |
Oregon
ND
Miss State
Louisville
All go down within 7 days. Baylor seems to be the true#1. No one wants to be a top seed in the tourney it seems.
Does UCONN leap frog Oregon? Or does Oregon stay #2 with the factor of hebard not playing the 2nd half and having beat oregon state just 3 days ago? |
One thing we can say with some confidence. With five games remaining against RPI nos. 211, 152, 248, 103, 140, UConn is not likely to join the upset roll. That's one way not to lose; don't play anyone.
At least Baylor still has to play 10, 29 and 56, two of those on the road.
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acsuc99
Joined: 10 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 02/18/19 11:21 pm ::: |
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Uh oh, I imagine this might change things. Would suck for Oregon. Hope she's ok.
echelle Voepel
@MechelleV
Kelly Graves, coach of the @OregonWBB said of Ruthy Hebard's injury: "Don’t know, doesn’t look good." Said he doesn't know what is wrong yet, but obviously is very worried.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 02/18/19 11:24 pm ::: |
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| So not only are there no undefeated teams, there's only one one-loss team in the country.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 02/18/19 11:27 pm ::: |
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| acsuc99 wrote: |
Uh oh, I imagine this might change things. Would suck for Oregon.
echelle Voepel
@MechelleV
Kelly Graves, coach of the @OregonWBB said of Ruthy Hebard's injury: "Don’t know, doesn’t look good." Said he doesn't know what is wrong yet, but obviously is very worried. |
That would be horrible. I've lived through end of season injuries to Achonwa and Turner in different years that basically ended any realistic chances. I hope that doesn't happen to Oregon after the year they've had.
Tonight showed how limited they are offensively without Hebard. They'd be toast.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 02/18/19 11:35 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| So not only are there no undefeated teams, there's only one one-loss team in the country. |
I think there's even only four 2 loss teams.
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WNBA 09
Joined: 26 Jun 2009
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| Posted: 02/19/19 12:06 am ::: |
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| myrtle wrote: |
| WNBA 09 wrote: |
Oregon
ND
Miss State
Louisville
All go down within 7 days. Baylor seems to be the true#1. No one wants to be a top seed in the tourney it seems.
Does UCONN leap frog Oregon? Or does Oregon stay #2 with the factor of hebard not playing the 2nd half and having beat oregon state just 3 days ago? |
I would say only because their conference is so weak they don't have any real competition. |
Agreed , but i also think UCONN's rise in the rankings are due to the same thing. These teams are playing tough opponents i firmly believe a team like Miami or Oregon State and maybe even missouri could beat UCONN this year.
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WNBA 09
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| Posted: 02/19/19 12:09 am ::: |
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| acsuc99 wrote: |
Wow man things can change fast.
Wonder how the top 6 is gonna look now?
I think Baylor and UConn are pretty much guaranteed to win out.
Either Louisville and/or ND will lose again. Heck maybe both will.
Oregon and Miss State both lose this week and no guarantee they win out.
Based on Geography, selling tickets, and TV purposes I hope it plays out like this.
CHICAGO- 1. Notre Dame 2. Mississippi State
National title rematch. ND will bring people to Chicago.
PORTLAND- 1. Oregon 2. Louisville
Oregon needs a strong 2 seed after what I just saw should they falter. Oregon will bring fans to Portland
Albany- 1. UConn 2. Stanford
UConn will travel to Albany
Greensboro- 1. Baylor 2. NC State or South Carolina with the other being the 3.
Need NC State and South Carolina in Greensboro to sell tickets. |
Why make Stanford #2 in Alabany though? If anything Albany #2 is between Louisville/ND/UCONN. 2 of those 3 will end up in Albany i believe.
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CBiebel
Joined: 23 Dec 2004
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| Posted: 02/19/19 4:33 am ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
| CBiebel wrote: |
No, but they might have ended up with a couple more losses this year, which is what is being discussed, not previous years. In previous years UConn had #1 or #2 RPI and had an SOS that was much better. This year that isn't the case. In previous years UConn wasn't 1-2 vs top 10 teams.
And for the record, you're reading too much into my post. I wasn't actually taking a position one way or the other. I was just pointing out the different perspectives. Which do you value more, the losses or the wins? I wasn't promoting either position, just pointing out different ways of looking at the situation.
My actual position is that there are way too many games to be played for us to really make this decision. You never know if a team like, say, Louisville, might lose a game to a team like, say, Miami...  |
LOL If you weren't taking a position then you fooled me. I didn't see but one perspective.
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Really? Where? I was asking questions. If there was a position, you provided it yourself, which suggests that you aren't sure of your owns team's position here. I asked questions. I didn't answer a single one of those questions. Which is correct? Did I say? No. Please provide proof of your position. I'm willing to bet that if the situation was reversed (UConn had more losses but had beaten more top 10 teams while ND a losing record vs 10 teams but had beaten UConn) you would be arguing the opposite position you are now.
Here is the gist of my post (quoted directly from my post):
So the basic question is, do you count losses more than number of top level wins? Which is more important?
I ask which is more important. In no place do I suggest which is more important. To some people more losses is more important. To others, more wins against top opponents is more important.
Please show where in my post I showed one perspective. Please do so. You can't. Because I didn't.
Last edited by CBiebel on 02/19/19 5:10 am; edited 3 times in total |
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CBiebel
Joined: 23 Dec 2004
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| Posted: 02/19/19 4:51 am ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
When was the last time UConn lost to a non-top 10 team? ans: 2012, St Johns. 7 years to the day. So yeah, "they might", but you are drawing conclusions based on speculation and I ain't no lawyer but I don't think that's real evidence.
UConn titles vs the rest of wcbb over the last 10 years - 6-4. That's evidence.
NC's in the last 10 years.
AAC - SIX
B12 - TWO
ACC - ONE
SEC - ONE
P12 - ZERO
And all this from what I read here is a pathetic conference. LOL The rest of you can go back to talking about the "competitive balance" in your conferences. Personally, I'm a UConn fan, not an AAC fan, and since like most UConn fans I can't remember the plenitude of conference regular and post season titles I do not care. Take it from someone who knows, winning titles loses it's excitement value after a while and it starts being a standard by which a good season is measured. |
When was the last time UConn lost 2 games in the regular season? 2012-13. Yet UConn lost 2 regular season games. This is 2018-19.
So basically, any season from 2012-13 to 2017-18 is completely irrelevant to your argument because guess what? News flash! Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson, and Morgan Tuck are no longer on the UConn team! This UConn team does not consist of the juggernauts that the previous teams have been. They haven't beaten everyone by 10+ points. Yes, they beat ND early in the season when Mabrey was still recovering from a preseason injury. But as the saying goes "what have you done lately?" Beat Baylor? Nope. Beat Louisville? Nope. BTW, I loved how before that game Lobo talked about how the refs should "let them play." I laughed out loud about that one. Normally that is the battle cry of UConn fans: "Let them play!" However, when playing Louisville, the last things you want the refs to think is "Let them play." Just ask Britteny Griner....
As for evidence, how many times in the last 7 years has UConn beaten a 6-18 team by only 9 points? Please tell me because I want to know...
That's evidence...
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CBiebel
Joined: 23 Dec 2004
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 02/19/19 10:01 am ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
OTOH, in 1998 they didn't drop Stanford despite them losing two of their top players, including leading scorer Kristin Folkl |
If I remember correctly, Vanessa Nygard's ACL injury was known at the time of the seeding, but the ACL injury to Kristin Folkl didn't happen until after the selections were made. That said, the point is still well taken as Vanessa's injury alone could have been justification for dropping them from a one seed. I've always felt that the 16 one upset deserves an asterisk because it's not truly the case that a 16 seed took down a legitimate number one seed. No disrespect to Harvard, but I think we still have some time to wait until a 16 seed can take on a one seed at full strength.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 02/19/19 10:05 am ::: |
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| Phil wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
OTOH, in 1998 they didn't drop Stanford despite them losing two of their top players, including leading scorer Kristin Folkl |
If I remember correctly, Vanessa Nygard's ACL injury was known at the time of the seeding, but the ACL injury to Kristin Folkl didn't happen until after the selections were made. That said, the point is still well taken as Vanessa's injury alone could have been justification for dropping them from a one seed. I've always felt that the 16 one upset deserves an asterisk because it's not truly the case that a 16 seed took down a legitimate number one seed. No disrespect to Harvard, but I think we still have some time to wait until a 16 seed can take on a one seed at full strength. |
Harvard should have been better than a #16 seed anyway
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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| Posted: 02/19/19 10:18 am ::: |
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| Do the injury whiners think Charlie reads these threads LMAO. Although maybe he does as the twisting and contortions some have to do to make losses to unranked bottom conference dwellers is hilarious.
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 02/19/19 11:23 am ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| Phil wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
OTOH, in 1998 they didn't drop Stanford despite them losing two of their top players, including leading scorer Kristin Folkl |
If I remember correctly, Vanessa Nygard's ACL injury was known at the time of the seeding, but the ACL injury to Kristin Folkl didn't happen until after the selections were made. That said, the point is still well taken as Vanessa's injury alone could have been justification for dropping them from a one seed. I've always felt that the 16 one upset deserves an asterisk because it's not truly the case that a 16 seed took down a legitimate number one seed. No disrespect to Harvard, but I think we still have some time to wait until a 16 seed can take on a one seed at full strength. |
Harvard should have been better than a #16 seed anyway |
It is absolutely the case. My guess is that the tournament selection committee was being sloppy and adopting the usual mindset that the Ivy League champ was likely to be a very weak team and just automatically slotted them as a 16 seed. that's not really forgivable as Alison Feaster was the nation's leading scorer, so this no excuse for this team falling under the radar.
Harvard was ranked 68 by Massey. Obviously, as discussed elsewhere, the selection committee does not directly use Massey to make the selections but Massey is an excellent measure of strength, so if Massey ranked Harvard 68th, one would think that sensible committee members would come to a comparable if not exactly the same conclusion. A ranking of 68 makes them not just better than the other 16 seeds, that ranking is better than the 15 seeds. for example Howard is at 151 in Fairfield at 135. This is even better than three of the 14 seeds. Green Day was at 77, holy cross at 90 Montana at 77 and only Santa Clara at 54 had a better rating.
Maine was a 13 seed and ranked 87th by Massey.
I think Harvard clearly fits as as a 14 seed but one could argue for a 13 seed. The committee often has to move up or down a line for various reasons but I can't see a justification for moving down two lines to a 16 seed.
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Phil
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| Posted: 02/19/19 11:31 am ::: |
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| As an odd alternative history note, had the selection committee seeded Harvard correctly, they probably would've been a 14 seed. Had the committee reflected the known injury to the all American, they plausibly might have dropped Stanford to a three seed, in which case Harvard might have met Stanford in the first round with the result being an upset, but not anywhere near as dramatic an upset.
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cthskzfn
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Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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myrtle
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| Posted: 02/19/19 6:04 pm ::: |
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moved this from the wrong thread:
| myrtle wrote: |
| cthskzfn wrote: |
| myrtle wrote: |
So Charlie's latest still doesn't pay attn to the geographical thingie, which is puzzling since the committee has shown such a proclivity to do so.
Anyway he has:
Albany: UConn, ND
Chicago: Louisville, Stanford
Greensboro: Baylor, Miss St (this would at least make everybody happy about the meeting of the bigs)
Portland: Oregon, NC State
so IMO whatever else, whatever seed
UConn will be in Albany
ND will be in Chicago
Louisville, Maryland, SoCaro will be in Greensboro
Oregon, Gonzaga will be in Portland |
This is WCB. I doubt we'll see CT and ND in the same region, simply cuz TV wants that game to be in the FF, should it happen.
I'm nearly 100% sure ND will be in Chicago. |
exactly my point. I think it's obvious to almost all fans everywhere...so why is Charlie doing this? |
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For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
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J-Spoon
Joined: 31 Jan 2009
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| Posted: 02/19/19 7:00 pm ::: |
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this is not my gig at all but i like puzzles how about
Alb Conn, Stan, Miami, Cuse
Chi ND, Miss St, Marq, Iowa
Grb Bay, Lville, NCst, SoCar
Por Or, Maryland, OrSt, Gonz
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