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myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 02/08/19 7:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had. I also think that the loss of Bibby for this team is one of the biggest losses any of the top teams has endured this year. I believe she was there both for the Oregon loss and several of their 'top' wins. Having at least one reliable 3pt shooter is huge for any of the top teams and I think Miss St will find out the hard way when they actually play one again. [And UConn will find out as well if KLS can't find her stroke.] Defense on Miss St should all be in the key and double up when the ball comes in. Make 'em prove they can hit the outside shot.

Anyway, it's all good! We'll see what happens come March. At this point, I don't have a clear favorite. And I think matchups will have a huge effect on who makes the final 4.



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pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 58736
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PostPosted: 02/08/19 8:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had.


FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries.



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summertime blues



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PostPosted: 02/08/19 11:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
myrtle wrote:
I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had.


FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries.


pilight, may I quote you at someone?



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pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 02/09/19 7:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:
pilight wrote:
myrtle wrote:
I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had.


FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries.


pilight, may I quote you at someone?


Sure, why not?



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Phil



Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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PostPosted: 02/09/19 10:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Notre Dame can't be that far of the pack if they're losing to UNC and Miami.

FWIW, the non-RPI rankings mostly have Miss St ranked ahead of UConn. Massey has Miss St #1...


Yes, albeit in a virtual tie with Baylor.


Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: 02/09/19 12:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had.


Real-time RPI currently has
UCONN 6 RPI 25 SOS
MISST 7 RPI 48 SOS

Real-time RPI projects end of season
MISST 6 RPI 48 SOS
UCONN 8 RPI 49 SOS

So they project a slightly easier schedule for UConn by season’s end.

I’m not sure why a win over SC would be clarifying for UConn, while MSU having SC twice on their schedule is viewed as “cupcake”. We’re talking about end-of-season seedings here, right?



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myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 02/09/19 12:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
myrtle wrote:
I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had.


FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries.


depends on the type of pastries for me to be interested. Wink I really like the fruit tarts!



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bballjunkie



Joined: 12 Aug 2014
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PostPosted: 02/09/19 4:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Agreed Myrtle. Plus there are a lot of cupcakes out there and they start with those teams who don’t play tough teams on the road. You cannot blame UConn for their AAC, they always try to play top 5 teams which are way more difficult to play than top 10 or top 25, especially on the road. Plus KLS was 7/10 from 3 last 2 games. When you are playing basically 2 newbies, stuff will happen but we are not making excuses like some with a team full of eligible draft players Wink


Nixtreefan



Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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PostPosted: 02/09/19 4:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Give me poptarts any day Laughing The moaning leprechauns need to be sent to Siberia they deserve it after last year reffing debacles LMAO


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 11888
Location: OREGON (in my heart)


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PostPosted: 02/09/19 6:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
pilight wrote:
myrtle wrote:
I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had.


FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries.


depends on the type of pastries for me to be interested. Wink I really like the fruit tarts!


Awww, thanks, Myrtle. I always knew that about you. Razz Laughing Laughing



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summertime blues



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PostPosted: 02/09/19 7:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:
pilight wrote:
myrtle wrote:
I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had.


FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries.


pilight, may I quote you at someone?


Thanks.



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toad455



Joined: 16 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: 02/11/19 1:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How did Stanford move up? South Dakota ranked for the first time ever.

Top 5:
1. Baylor
2. Louisville
3. Oregon
4. UCONN
5. Mississippi State

https://apnews.com/afs:Content:3317420111



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Nixtreefan



Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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PostPosted: 02/11/19 1:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yep if my first name was Michelle I would be a little embarrassed right now, just adds to their west coast bias argument by others who have brought that up and doesn't help our integrity. Embarassed


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
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PostPosted: 02/11/19 1:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

toad455 wrote:
How did Stanford move up?


Because North Carolina St hasn't played any of the top teams, so them losing to Florida St, after losing to North Carolina, must've made people decide they were ranked too high, so they are now pushed below Stanford instead of above Stanford. And Stanford beat Oregon St before getting blown out by Oregon, who is a top-ranked team, not a last place team. And below Stanford is basically another tier of teams who have to do more to prove they are "better" than Stanford, so it'd probably take say, South Carolina beating UConn tonight, for them to be ranked ahead of Stanford, unless Stanford losses some more.


Nixtreefan



Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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PostPosted: 02/11/19 2:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

However, they don't seem to be taking in to consideration these teams bad losses. When you lose to an unranked team it should have a negative affect and it seems as though they are ignoring them. EG Utah was clearly overranked as their 4 game losing streak shows and that is a bad loss for Stanford just as UNC was for ND. The other team overranked is Gonzaga.


PRballer



Joined: 18 Apr 2007
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PostPosted: 02/11/19 2:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

toad455 wrote:
How did Stanford move up? South Dakota ranked for the first time ever.

Top 5:
1. Baylor
2. Louisville
3. Oregon
4. UCONN
5. Mississippi State

https://apnews.com/afs:Content:3317420111


Remember they beat a pretty good Oregon State team on Friday night.


Nixtreefan



Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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PostPosted: 02/11/19 3:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It is going to get pretty interesting as OSU lost to ASU and Stanford beat them by almost 20.


linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: 02/11/19 3:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nixtreefan wrote:
However, they don't seem to be taking in to consideration these teams bad losses. When you lose to an unranked team it should have a negative affect and it seems as though they are ignoring them. EG Utah was clearly overranked as their 4 game losing streak shows and that is a bad loss for Stanford just as UNC was for ND. The other team overranked is Gonzaga.


According to Creme UConn's losses on the road to the No 1 & No 2 teams in the country are bad losses while N Dame's losses to unranked teams are meaningless to Charlie.
Or is the committee saying they would have been better off losing to Tulsa and SMU. Rolling Eyes

And yes, I understand about all the weak teams on their schedule but really folks, is any team outside the top 50 any poll or rankings a threat to beat a No 1 seed? So what difference is it to a 1 seed if their opponent is No 50 or No 150?. Easier win? Yeah but both games are easy wins now, right? So why does Creme make such a big deal over it? I speculate that he has become a shill for the NCAA. Sorry Charlie.


Creme's charts have become just a little TOO close to what the NCAA comes up with. I'm starting to think that the NCAA is feeding Charlie their charts. He no longer talks about "projections" and his comments are more like "these are the picks".Maybe they think that if their picks on selection Monday jive with Creme's they will get less flack, so they give him their picks. And notice how he doesn't present all arguments, only those that support his seeding. Doesn't that sound just like the selection chair's 2 minute ESPN "interview" after the selections are announced?




Last edited by linkster on 02/11/19 4:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
Nixtreefan



Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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PostPosted: 02/11/19 3:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

He certainly seems to be catering to something other than the actual games that are happening but the ND lovefest for the last couple of years has been sickening especially with all the whining they do.


elsie



Joined: 08 Apr 2016
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PostPosted: 02/11/19 6:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

gongzaga has only done eveything possible to be ranked......two "good" losses and many good wins OOC including Stanford, and Rutgers, Missouri state who is currently leading their conference....and the zags are winning their conference games....

for that you think they're over ranked?.....and yet Stanford moves up with a horrible loss.....just like Oregon St moved up a few weeks ago after losing.....


Hoopsmom



Joined: 05 Apr 2017
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PostPosted: 02/11/19 7:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Congratulations to the lady Yotes! They have worked so hard for this, with quality wins over Missouri and Missouri State on the road, as well as Iowa State and South Dakota State at home, givig them a 25-3 record...


Nixtreefan



Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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PostPosted: 02/11/19 9:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

elsie wrote:
gongzaga has only done eveything possible to be ranked......two "good" losses and many good wins OOC including Stanford, and Rutgers, Missouri state who is currently leading their conference....and the zags are winning their conference games....

for that you think they're over ranked?.....and yet Stanford moves up with a horrible loss.....just like Oregon St moved up a few weeks ago after losing.....


Wait I guess you missed the part where I think my own team is overranked too so.....


Phil



Joined: 22 Oct 2011
Posts: 1104



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PostPosted: 02/12/19 10:18 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Creme makes some good points about balance, but I reach different conclusions regarding some of his arguments.

First off, I don't take this reveal too seriously. it does provide some insight into the committee's thinking but they understand that it's early, probably don't spend considerable time trying to fine tune something that inevitably going to change. I do think they make the reveal for a specific reason — it allows people like us to react and perhaps will come up with something they either missed or more likely considered but perhaps under weighted. I don't know that RebKell is on their list of places to get feedback but we can act as if it is. [Edited for spelling]

The headline says that Baylor should have an issue with the reveal. keep in mind that the headlines are typically not written by the writer, so while Charlie has to take responsibility for the main text this may or may not reflect his personal view.

Charlie thinks Baylor has a right to be unhappy about being in the same region with Notre Dame. Fair point. However, he goes on to suggest that perhaps they should both be in Chicago.

Let me see if I've got this straight — Baylor has a right to be unhappy playing in the Greensboro region with Notre Dame as a number two but moving both to Chicago, Notre Dame's backyard, would be an improvement for Baylor? I don't think so.




Last edited by Phil on 02/12/19 12:36 pm; edited 2 times in total
Nixtreefan



Joined: 14 Nov 2012
Posts: 2538



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PostPosted: 02/12/19 11:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Laughing Laughing Laughing


myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 02/12/19 1:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

First I think it's really difficult this year to actually create an S curve. If you look at it strictly from a loss point of view, with wins in the top 10 using current rankings:
Baylor lost to #10 Stanford, beat #4 Conn
Louisville lost to #6 ND, Beat #4 Conn
Oregon lost to #24 MichSU, beat #5 MissSt and #10 Stanford
Conn lost to #1 Baylor and #2 Louisville, beat #6 ND
MissSt lost to #3 Oregon and beat #8 Marquette
ND lost to #4UConn,#20 Mia and uUNC, but beat #2 Louisville & #9 OrSU

I know they go by much more than this, but to me top 50 wins/losses are much less important than top 10, followed by top 20. I think all of them have some additional top 20 wins. And if you look at this mess, it's really hard to separate them. Everybody has something kinda 'bad' and kinda 'good' about their resumes.

My point is that if you are calling Baylor 1 on the s-curve and ND 6, there isn't a whole lot of anything that separates them in reality but he's making a big deal about the difference between 31 and 37 (when toting up the supposed s-curve numbers by region). I do agree that any region that has two of these six in it should then have the weakest #3 and #4 s, but at this point even that is hard to determine.

The committee has it:

7. Stanford
8. NC State
9. Marquette
10. Iowa
11. Maryland
12. Oregon State
13. South Carolina
14. Gonzaga
15. Iowa State
16. Miami

but really you could pretty easily mix and match most of these...for instance I don't see a whole lot of difference among those 3 seeds. It all depends on matchups. So the whole numbering system is really pretty artificial IMO.
Anyway add in Syracuse and remove NC State and then they're in the ballpark.



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Last edited by myrtle on 02/12/19 6:03 pm; edited 1 time in total
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