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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32336
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Posted: 02/08/19 7:42 pm ::: |
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I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had. I also think that the loss of Bibby for this team is one of the biggest losses any of the top teams has endured this year. I believe she was there both for the Oregon loss and several of their 'top' wins. Having at least one reliable 3pt shooter is huge for any of the top teams and I think Miss St will find out the hard way when they actually play one again. [And UConn will find out as well if KLS can't find her stroke.] Defense on Miss St should all be in the key and double up when the ball comes in. Make 'em prove they can hit the outside shot.
Anyway, it's all good! We'll see what happens come March. At this point, I don't have a clear favorite. And I think matchups will have a huge effect on who makes the final 4.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66937 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 02/08/19 8:01 pm ::: |
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myrtle wrote: |
I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had. |
FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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summertime blues
Joined: 16 Apr 2013 Posts: 7852 Location: Shenandoah Valley
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Posted: 02/08/19 11:32 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
myrtle wrote: |
I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had. |
FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries. |
pilight, may I quote you at someone?
_________________ Don't take life so serious. It ain't nohows permanent.
It takes 3 years to build a team and 7 to build a program.--Conventional Wisdom
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66937 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 02/09/19 7:45 am ::: |
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summertime blues wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
myrtle wrote: |
I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had. |
FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries. |
pilight, may I quote you at someone? |
Sure, why not?
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011 Posts: 1274
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Posted: 02/09/19 10:55 am ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
Notre Dame can't be that far of the pack if they're losing to UNC and Miami.
FWIW, the non-RPI rankings mostly have Miss St ranked ahead of UConn. Massey has Miss St #1... |
Yes, albeit in a virtual tie with Baylor.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63798
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Posted: 02/09/19 12:09 pm ::: |
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myrtle wrote: |
I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had. |
Real-time RPI currently has
UCONN 6 RPI 25 SOS
MISST 7 RPI 48 SOS
Real-time RPI projects end of season
MISST 6 RPI 48 SOS
UCONN 8 RPI 49 SOS
So they project a slightly easier schedule for UConn by season’s end.
I’m not sure why a win over SC would be clarifying for UConn, while MSU having SC twice on their schedule is viewed as “cupcake”. We’re talking about end-of-season seedings here, right?
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32336
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bballjunkie
Joined: 12 Aug 2014 Posts: 785
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009 Posts: 15747 Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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summertime blues
Joined: 16 Apr 2013 Posts: 7852 Location: Shenandoah Valley
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Posted: 02/09/19 7:03 pm ::: |
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summertime blues wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
myrtle wrote: |
I've always had a problem with Massey's offense/defense numbers since I think it greatly favors playing a cupcake schedule which MissSt definitely had. |
FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries. |
pilight, may I quote you at someone? |
Thanks.
_________________ Don't take life so serious. It ain't nohows permanent.
It takes 3 years to build a team and 7 to build a program.--Conventional Wisdom
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toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005 Posts: 22475 Location: NJ
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Posted: 02/11/19 1:28 pm ::: |
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How did Stanford move up? South Dakota ranked for the first time ever.
Top 5:
1. Baylor
2. Louisville
3. Oregon
4. UCONN
5. Mississippi State
https://apnews.com/afs:Content:3317420111
_________________ LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!
Twitter: @TBRBWAY
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012 Posts: 4241 Location: Minnesota
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Posted: 02/11/19 1:54 pm ::: |
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toad455 wrote: |
How did Stanford move up? |
Because North Carolina St hasn't played any of the top teams, so them losing to Florida St, after losing to North Carolina, must've made people decide they were ranked too high, so they are now pushed below Stanford instead of above Stanford. And Stanford beat Oregon St before getting blown out by Oregon, who is a top-ranked team, not a last place team. And below Stanford is basically another tier of teams who have to do more to prove they are "better" than Stanford, so it'd probably take say, South Carolina beating UConn tonight, for them to be ranked ahead of Stanford, unless Stanford losses some more.
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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Posted: 02/11/19 2:21 pm ::: |
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However, they don't seem to be taking in to consideration these teams bad losses. When you lose to an unranked team it should have a negative affect and it seems as though they are ignoring them. EG Utah was clearly overranked as their 4 game losing streak shows and that is a bad loss for Stanford just as UNC was for ND. The other team overranked is Gonzaga.
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PRballer
Joined: 18 Apr 2007 Posts: 2544
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Posted: 02/11/19 2:28 pm ::: |
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Remember they beat a pretty good Oregon State team on Friday night.
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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Posted: 02/11/19 3:01 pm ::: |
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It is going to get pretty interesting as OSU lost to ASU and Stanford beat them by almost 20.
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012 Posts: 5423
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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Posted: 02/11/19 3:56 pm ::: |
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He certainly seems to be catering to something other than the actual games that are happening but the ND lovefest for the last couple of years has been sickening especially with all the whining they do.
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elsie
Joined: 08 Apr 2016 Posts: 278
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Posted: 02/11/19 6:56 pm ::: |
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gongzaga has only done eveything possible to be ranked......two "good" losses and many good wins OOC including Stanford, and Rutgers, Missouri state who is currently leading their conference....and the zags are winning their conference games....
for that you think they're over ranked?.....and yet Stanford moves up with a horrible loss.....just like Oregon St moved up a few weeks ago after losing.....
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Hoopsmom
Joined: 05 Apr 2017 Posts: 680
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Posted: 02/11/19 7:48 pm ::: |
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Congratulations to the lady Yotes! They have worked so hard for this, with quality wins over Missouri and Missouri State on the road, as well as Iowa State and South Dakota State at home, givig them a 25-3 record...
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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Posted: 02/11/19 9:55 pm ::: |
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elsie wrote: |
gongzaga has only done eveything possible to be ranked......two "good" losses and many good wins OOC including Stanford, and Rutgers, Missouri state who is currently leading their conference....and the zags are winning their conference games....
for that you think they're over ranked?.....and yet Stanford moves up with a horrible loss.....just like Oregon St moved up a few weeks ago after losing..... |
Wait I guess you missed the part where I think my own team is overranked too so.....
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011 Posts: 1274
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Posted: 02/12/19 10:18 am ::: |
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Creme makes some good points about balance, but I reach different conclusions regarding some of his arguments.
First off, I don't take this reveal too seriously. it does provide some insight into the committee's thinking but they understand that it's early, probably don't spend considerable time trying to fine tune something that inevitably going to change. I do think they make the reveal for a specific reason — it allows people like us to react and perhaps will come up with something they either missed or more likely considered but perhaps under weighted. I don't know that RebKell is on their list of places to get feedback but we can act as if it is. [Edited for spelling]
The headline says that Baylor should have an issue with the reveal. keep in mind that the headlines are typically not written by the writer, so while Charlie has to take responsibility for the main text this may or may not reflect his personal view.
Charlie thinks Baylor has a right to be unhappy about being in the same region with Notre Dame. Fair point. However, he goes on to suggest that perhaps they should both be in Chicago.
Let me see if I've got this straight — Baylor has a right to be unhappy playing in the Greensboro region with Notre Dame as a number two but moving both to Chicago, Notre Dame's backyard, would be an improvement for Baylor? I don't think so.
Last edited by Phil on 02/12/19 12:36 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32336
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Posted: 02/12/19 1:57 pm ::: |
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First I think it's really difficult this year to actually create an S curve. If you look at it strictly from a loss point of view, with wins in the top 10 using current rankings:
Baylor lost to #10 Stanford, beat #4 Conn
Louisville lost to #6 ND, Beat #4 Conn
Oregon lost to #24 MichSU, beat #5 MissSt and #10 Stanford
Conn lost to #1 Baylor and #2 Louisville, beat #6 ND
MissSt lost to #3 Oregon and beat #8 Marquette
ND lost to #4UConn,#20 Mia and uUNC, but beat #2 Louisville & #9 OrSU
I know they go by much more than this, but to me top 50 wins/losses are much less important than top 10, followed by top 20. I think all of them have some additional top 20 wins. And if you look at this mess, it's really hard to separate them. Everybody has something kinda 'bad' and kinda 'good' about their resumes.
My point is that if you are calling Baylor 1 on the s-curve and ND 6, there isn't a whole lot of anything that separates them in reality but he's making a big deal about the difference between 31 and 37 (when toting up the supposed s-curve numbers by region). I do agree that any region that has two of these six in it should then have the weakest #3 and #4 s, but at this point even that is hard to determine.
The committee has it:
7. Stanford
8. NC State
9. Marquette
10. Iowa
11. Maryland
12. Oregon State
13. South Carolina
14. Gonzaga
15. Iowa State
16. Miami
but really you could pretty easily mix and match most of these...for instance I don't see a whole lot of difference among those 3 seeds. It all depends on matchups. So the whole numbering system is really pretty artificial IMO.
Anyway add in Syracuse and remove NC State and then they're in the ballpark.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
Last edited by myrtle on 02/12/19 6:03 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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