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NYL_WNBA_FAN
Joined: 28 May 2007 Posts: 14097
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Posted: 01/12/19 8:20 pm ::: |
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Bob Lamm wrote: |
Assuming the sale goes through, I see two options as to what's ahead regarding the front office and coaching:
1. Most likely scenario: it's too late to make such changes for the 2019 season. Just stick with whoever is actually making front office decisions, stick with Katie Smith as coach, and assume there will be a new regime in 2020 unless the Liberty have a surprisingly terrific season.
2. If Tsai and his associates have known for a good while that this sale was likely to happen, they may have been researching the options and planning some major moves once the deal is announced. It could be that a new GM and a new coach are already ready to take over.
I expect to see option #1 rather than option #2, but option #2 isn't out of the question. |
Agreed. It’s a terrible time for any organizational changes. The free agency negotiation period begins in 3 days.
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root_thing
Joined: 28 Apr 2007 Posts: 7365 Location: Underground
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Posted: 01/12/19 10:07 pm ::: |
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Katie Smith is out there working. She was in Morgantown last Sunday to watch West Virginia play Texas. Smith also had an interview with the Amsterdam News two days ago where she talked about preparing to make roster moves (vague references, nothing useful). I would expect that she's aware of the sale and if her job is at risk. My guess is that things remain status quo through the end of this season, and then the new owners will reassess.
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J-Spoon
Joined: 31 Jan 2009 Posts: 6800
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Posted: 01/12/19 10:50 pm ::: |
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Based on nothing at all except gut feeling I think the opposite.
If the announcement is next week it is because the new owner will want to implement change and it is just early enough to get it done.
Based on the rumors and rumblings this has probably been in the works a little bit so I wouldn't be surprised if there have also been some behind the scenes discussions around other issue like re organizing the top level structure as well as venue.
I doubt Dolan will care about the dates the Liberty already have at WCC and i am not sure a new owner would want another mediocre season in limbo. It may not even be a coincidence that the majority of game dates are still open at Barclays. This new owner sound like someone who would want to start out with a bang not a whimper
Maybe Smith has some form of guarantee for this season with the new owner and will get a lot of input on roster moves to get a head start on the transition. No contracts can be signed until February I won't be shocked at all if new executives and venue are part of the announcement.
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Bob Lamm
Joined: 11 Apr 2010 Posts: 5065 Location: New York City
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Posted: 01/13/19 12:22 am ::: |
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J-Spoon wrote: |
Based on nothing at all except gut feeling I think the opposite.
If the announcement is next week it is because the new owner will want to implement change and it is just early enough to get it done.
Based on the rumors and rumblings this has probably been in the works a little bit so I wouldn't be surprised if there have also been some behind the scenes discussions around other issue like re organizing the top level structure as well as venue.
I doubt Dolan will care about the dates the Liberty already have at WCC and i am not sure a new owner would want another mediocre season in limbo. It may not even be a coincidence that the majority of game dates are still open at Barclays. This new owner sound like someone who would want to start out with a bang not a whimper
Maybe Smith has some form of guarantee for this season with the new owner and will get a lot of input on roster moves to get a head start on the transition. No contracts can be signed until February I won't be shocked at all if new executives and venue are part of the announcement. |
This is why I posted options #1 and options #2 above. Hypothetically, new staff could have been working secretly with the (likely) new owner for months under personal service contracts with him that become contracts with the Liberty if/when the sale becomes official. As I've said, I view this as unlikely, but possible.
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J-Spoon
Joined: 31 Jan 2009 Posts: 6800
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Posted: 01/13/19 1:27 am ::: |
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Now just to slightly change the subject or return to draft talk and maybe be a little contrversial
Ionescu declares, Laimbeer offers the #1 pick for Charles, the cored Charles is open to the trade, do you do it?
I could see Laimbeer making this offer he had some good years with Charles, Charles and Wilson could make a great position-less front-court similar to say Stewart and Howard or Parker and N. Ogwumike. Charles and Wilson with Plum and McBride on the perimeter would be a really hard line up to guard and is probably the quickest way LV could become a true title contender.
NY would basically be saying the Charles years are over and rebuilding for the future with the #1 (Ionescu) and #2 (Brown, McCowan, Collier, KLS, Durr, Ogunbowale) pick this year and a decent group of role players like Nurse, Boyd, Hartley, Rodgers, Stokes, NRE and Zahui B they would probably be headed for another year in the lottery or could attract some decent free agents (if they want to rebuild faster). If you think Ionescu is closer to the next Taurasi than the next Plum the team reset could lead to a brighter future for the New New York, or not.
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Bob Lamm
Joined: 11 Apr 2010 Posts: 5065 Location: New York City
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Posted: 01/13/19 2:20 am ::: |
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I haven't seen enough of Ionescu to say how likely it is that she'll become a star in the WNBA. But, despite my complete admiration for Tina Charles, I'd trade her if the deal feels right. Four reasons:
1. In the heart of the 2019 season, Charles will be about 30 1/2 years old. In the heart of the 2020 season, she'll be about 31 1/2 years old. I can't imagine any way that the Liberty will be a genuine championship contender this season or next. How will Tina Charles's health hold up for the 2021 season (age 32 1/2) and beyond? How well will her skills hold up? For me, those are real questions.
2. Tina Charles's trade value can only go down each successive year.
3. Imagine keeping Charles and trying to build a serious championship contender around her. In my view, the likely roster for 2019, even with the current first-round pick, even with a free-agent signing or two, will be FAR from encouraging. Of the players from last year's roster who will or may return, the only ones I view as starters on a championship contender are Charles and Nurse. I view all the rest as at best good bench players.
4. Perhaps saying this will be heresy, but I'd love to see Tina Charles win a WNBA championship somewhere and I fear it will have to be for some other team.
I don't see anything great happening for New York in 2019 or 2020. I'd be very sad to see Tina Charles go, but I believe the Liberty needs a dramatic rebuild.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63779
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Posted: 01/13/19 6:18 am ::: |
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Laimbeer isn’t going to trade for Tina Charles. He’s already got his much younger and further along at same point of career version in A’ja Wilson.
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Randy
Joined: 08 Oct 2011 Posts: 10911
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Posted: 01/13/19 8:35 am ::: |
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Bob Lamm wrote: |
I haven't seen enough of Ionescu to say how likely it is that she'll become a star in the WNBA. But, despite my complete admiration for Tina Charles, I'd trade her if the deal feels right. Four reasons:
1. In the heart of the 2019 season, Charles will be about 30 1/2 years old. In the heart of the 2020 season, she'll be about 31 1/2 years old. I can't imagine any way that the Liberty will be a genuine championship contender this season or next. How will Tina Charles's health hold up for the 2021 season (age 32 1/2) and beyond? How well will her skills hold up? For me, those are real questions.
2. Tina Charles's trade value can only go down each successive year.
3. Imagine keeping Charles and trying to build a serious championship contender around her. In my view, the likely roster for 2019, even with the current first-round pick, even with a free-agent signing or two, will be FAR from encouraging. Of the players from last year's roster who will or may return, the only ones I view as starters on a championship contender are Charles and Nurse. I view all the rest as at best good bench players.
4. Perhaps saying this will be heresy, but I'd love to see Tina Charles win a WNBA championship somewhere and I fear it will have to be for some other team.
I don't see anything great happening for New York in 2019 or 2020. I'd be very sad to see Tina Charles go, but I believe the Liberty needs a dramatic rebuild. |
Some of the same logic I used when I suggested the Dream should trade Angel a few years ago. Players that age on teams that are not competitive are probably more prone to sitting out or trade requests and older players are always more prone to injury. LV may not be the right trade partner, but there are certainly teams that could us Tina's skills. The Lynx and Mercury come quickly to mind. A FRP would be just the starting part of the deal though.
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toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005 Posts: 22474 Location: NJ
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Posted: 01/13/19 9:00 am ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
Laimbeer isn’t going to trade for Tina Charles. He’s already got his much younger and further along at same point of career version in A’ja Wilson. |
100%. Plus I feel if Tina wants out she'll try and stay on the East Coast and go to Washington. That's her best option with an Eastern Conference team to get a title as well. It would put the Mystics in a log jam at PF with Charles, Delle Donne & Meesseman though unless Emma is part of the trade.
Charles for Meesseman, Hines-Allen & their #10 pick?
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
Joined: 28 May 2007 Posts: 14097
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Posted: 01/13/19 9:49 am ::: |
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I don't think that's enough for Tina. Meesseman rarely draws double teams. Tina destroys 1 on 1 coverage if it happens and then faces 2 or 3 defenders for the remainder of a game. I think trading Tina for fair value is going to be very difficult, thus I'd keep her. First off, there's probably only two teams she'd agree to go to, and both of those teams have 4 spot players already. Secondly, Laimbeer isn't trading for Tina. He won't want her to play C and Vegas is already one of the league's best scoring teams and one of the poorer ones defensively. They'd be much better served, if Ionescu declares, to trade down to 2. Get a true C who provides length at the rim. Get something from the Libs that would benefit them and the system Laimbeer uses and trade from the surplus. It would be sensible in my mind to trade Jefferson. She's a bad fit the way Vegas plays, yet she could really help a team with a different system. A Thibault philosophy would be very good for her I think...and it would help the Mystics as well. They were very thin at PG last year...occasionally rotating TRP into that mix when they had injuries. I legitimately think if the Liberty offered Boyd and #2 for #1 that Laimbeer would be interested in that. Plum remains your PG. McBride is etched in at 2...and not likely to move to the 3. Coffey played well at 3 till she got hurt and they also have Young for depth. They're basically a rim protector away from being a top 4 team.
Back to NY, I'm not trading Tina unless you get a proven franchise player. A number one scorer who can carry a team even against double or triple teams. Given her age and rebounding drop-off that's probably unrealistic. That doesn't mean I'm trading her for less than her value just because she's about to be 30 years old. If the Liberty are judicious this offseason, they'll be able to add a minimum of one impact player in the draft. They should also either find a way to play Nurse starters' minutes or trade her for someone else who can. The #14 pick also has a chance to be a rotation player. I can think of a few (Mabrey, Kea) who could help the Liberty immediately. That may be a team that's still a ways from winning but I think trading Charles only makes your rebuild that much longer. In two years Tina is still going to be a primary scorer as long as she is healthy. She has more post moves than any post player in the world. Even at 32 you aren't replacing that. So...I'd find my pieces elsewhere. #2 in this draft is a good start. Nurse is a building block with value either to her own team or elsewhere. If the team isn't good this year (the rationale for a full-scale rebuild in the first place) they will have another lottery pick next year. So if you're telling me that two lottery picks, Nurse (or someone you acquire for her) a #14 pick in the deepest draft in memory and a very good free agent class isn't good enough to help you be a strong team by next year, then Tina isn't your problem. Management is. If you're not winning in 2020 with those types of assets around your proven 20 ppg scorer you need a new GM and a new coach.
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toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005 Posts: 22474 Location: NJ
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Posted: 01/13/19 11:10 am ::: |
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It's up to Charles. Hopefully with the new ownership she stays, especially if even a portion of games get played in Brooklyn.
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J-Spoon
Joined: 31 Jan 2009 Posts: 6800
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Posted: 01/13/19 1:10 pm ::: |
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Just for clarification I was presenting a hypothetical I never said Charles wanted out or that we should trade Charles
However I do think Laimbeer would want Charles I think Tina and Aja's game could be very complimentary and a team with Charles as your second post option with decent 3 point shooters on the perimeter would be a ccontender imo just look at Seattle and LA's championship teams. #1 for Charles would be the better quality version of #1 for Tan Smith PIX won because of that trade
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toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005 Posts: 22474 Location: NJ
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Posted: 01/13/19 1:32 pm ::: |
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Both Charles and Wilson are PFs under Laimbeer, so no. If Charles is to go anywhere best for her; Chicago & Phoenix are tops.
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J-Spoon
Joined: 31 Jan 2009 Posts: 6800
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Posted: 01/13/19 2:38 pm ::: |
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toad455 wrote: |
Both Charles and Wilson are PFs under Laimbeer, so no. If Charles is to go anywhere best for her; Chicago & Phoenix are tops. |
And Parker and Nneka are both pf and Stewart and Howard are both pf it can work and neither would clog the lane for the other they both rebound and what they looser on defense they would more then make up on offense
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63779
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Posted: 01/13/19 4:20 pm ::: |
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J-Spoon wrote: |
toad455 wrote: |
Both Charles and Wilson are PFs under Laimbeer, so no. If Charles is to go anywhere best for her; Chicago & Phoenix are tops. |
And Parker and Nneka are both pf and Stewart and Howard are both pf it can work and neither would clog the lane for the other they both rebound and what they looser on defense they would more then make up on offense |
Laimbeer isn’t one who worries excessively about “clogging the lane”. Wilson doesn’t really hang out around the basket, and she played beside assorted bigs her rookie year. Now it’s about finding the one center of the future. Is Laimbeer content with Park? Hard to say.
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Michelle89
Joined: 17 Nov 2010 Posts: 16464 Location: Holland
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Posted: 01/14/19 9:23 am ::: |
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If Charles wants out then you are not getting equal value for her. It almost never happens. Meesseman and 10th pick sounds pretty oke to me.
Tbh i was a bit disappointed with what i saw when Stewart and Charles played overseas together at Kursk. It didnt match that well IMO so i dont know how that would go with Wilson and Charles together.. I think that would result in Wilson being too much on the perimeter just like Stewie was..
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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18371 Location: Phoenix
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Posted: 01/14/19 2:06 pm ::: |
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toad455 wrote: |
Both Charles and Wilson are PFs under Laimbeer, so no. If Charles is to go anywhere best for her; Chicago & Phoenix are tops. |
Not based on watching the games, including from where Wilson was shooting. Starting a de facto post next to her does not make Wilson a PF. And when crunch time game and minutes were distributed, Wilson was the five.
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
Joined: 28 May 2007 Posts: 14097
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Posted: 01/14/19 9:24 pm ::: |
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There's truth to that perspective. But I'd say that was a by-product of a lack of 5-spot talent rather than a desire to use Wilson at the 5 spot. Laimbeer said himself (I know he doesn't always do exactly as he says by design) that he viewed Wilson at the 4 as a player who could penetrate and use her quickness to score and draw fouls. Which is the majority of how she was used. Your point, however, is true just the same. But then I'd look at how Tina was used by Bill. Bill moved her to PF in 2014 part-time...then did it full-time in 2015. My thought is twofold on the future of the Aces with all this in mind.
A) I think if Bill has his ideal type of team, he'd have a taller and stronger player at the 5 spot than either Wilson or Tina.
B) Vegas is a better offensive team than it is a defensive team...6th in offensive points per possession...8th on defense. I'd view McCowan as more influential in terms of improving their defense than I would Tina. Vegas needs a rim protector badly alongside Wilson. Plus she's younger and cheaper in terms of the cap.
That's not to say there isn't an argument for Tina. 20 ppg players don't often find themselves available and you'd have 2 on the same team to go with McBride and Plum. That's a scary amount of offense and a pretty strong rebounding team as well. And Tina is a solid man defender. She just doesn't protect the rim that well. Then there's the fact that McCowan's only offense is a layup. Question becomes...can a team win a championship without being a top defensive team? I believe every championship team since 2010 has been in the top 3 of points per possession against. Would Vegas be of that caliber defensively as a result of adding Tina? I don't see how. So I'd ask, in spite of that likelihood, could Vegas move toward championship caliber by adding Tina, just on the strength of its offense and rebounding? I think the only way you trade a #1 overall pick for Tina is if you think you can win a championship by doing so.
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stever
Joined: 16 Nov 2004 Posts: 6918 Location: https://womensbasketballdaily.net
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11149
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Posted: 01/17/19 11:57 am ::: |
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The shaky credibility of the writer is undermined by his inability to spell Zahui's name -- not to mention naming Marissa Coleman as a valuable free agent.
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
Joined: 28 May 2007 Posts: 14097
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Posted: 01/17/19 9:24 pm ::: |
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ClayK wrote: |
The shaky credibility of the writer is undermined by his inability to spell Zahui's name -- not to mention naming Marissa Coleman as a valuable free agent. |
I wonder if that Zellous stat (NY going 7-2 when she reached double digits) is accurate. That would mean they went 0-25 (she missed some games due to injury but still) when she didn’t.
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24356 Location: London
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Posted: 01/17/19 9:39 pm ::: |
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NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
ClayK wrote: |
The shaky credibility of the writer is undermined by his inability to spell Zahui's name -- not to mention naming Marissa Coleman as a valuable free agent. |
I wonder if that Zellous stat (NY going 7-2 when she reached double digits) is accurate. That would mean they went 0-25 (she missed some games due to injury but still) when she didn’t. |
I make it 7-3 when she scored in double-digits, but yeah, looks like they lost every game (12 she actually played in) where she didn't: https://www.wnba.com/player/shavonte-zellous/#/gamelogs |
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root_thing
Joined: 28 Apr 2007 Posts: 7365 Location: Underground
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Posted: 01/17/19 10:55 pm ::: |
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Even if it's true, what's the significance? You might make a more impressive case by simply saying the Liberty didn't win a single game when Zellous didn't play. However, the response would be that New York was 7-15 with her on the court, which is nothing to boast about either. Sometimes, the analytical stuff is just meaningless overthinking. It's no surprise that any time someone not named Tina scores double digits, the offensively deficient Liberty have a better chance of winning. They are always searching for those additional scorers and on that particular day, they found at least one.
He lost me early on with this sentence:
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Sugar Rodgers and Kiah Stokes continue to move up the franchise leaderboards. |
Is he suggesting that both players showed improvement? They both had terrible seasons, with Stokes having her worst year ever.
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
Joined: 28 May 2007 Posts: 14097
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Posted: 01/18/19 5:22 am ::: |
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root_thing wrote: |
Even if it's true, what's the significance? You might make a more impressive case by simply saying the Liberty didn't win a single game when Zellous didn't play. However, the response would be that New York was 7-15 with her on the court, which is nothing to boast about either. Sometimes, the analytical stuff is just meaningless overthinking. It's no surprise that any time someone not named Tina scores double digits, the offensively deficient Liberty have a better chance of winning. They are always searching for those additional scorers and on that particular day, they found at least one.
He lost me early on with this sentence:
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Sugar Rodgers and Kiah Stokes continue to move up the franchise leaderboards. |
Is he suggesting that both players showed improvement? They both had terrible seasons, with Stokes having her worst year ever. |
My first thought was if it was wrong, that’s another thing that doesn’t make the author seem knowledgeable.
But also, it’s suggests that if they could get consistent double digit scoring out of that position from another player they might upgrade their win total more than people think. I love Z, but she didn’t have a good year by her average standards either. She has in the past for NY been a good rebounder and more consistent offense player even if her average wasn’t that high. This was a very different offensive system, which might have had something to do with it. But still.
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NYL_WNBA_FAN
Joined: 28 May 2007 Posts: 14097
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Posted: 01/18/19 5:23 am ::: |
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Richyyy wrote: |
NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote: |
ClayK wrote: |
The shaky credibility of the writer is undermined by his inability to spell Zahui's name -- not to mention naming Marissa Coleman as a valuable free agent. |
I wonder if that Zellous stat (NY going 7-2 when she reached double digits) is accurate. That would mean they went 0-25 (she missed some games due to injury but still) when she didn’t. |
I make it 7-3 when she scored in double-digits, but yeah, looks like they lost every game (12 she actually played in) where she didn't: https://www.wnba.com/player/shavonte-zellous/#/gamelogs |
Thanks, appreciate the info. I’d have checked today but you saved me the trouble.
_________________ The poster formerly known as LibWNBAFan.
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