RebKell's Junkie Boards

[pilight]

Both games in Minnesota went over the number, both games in LA went under. This game is in LA, so take the under.

_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[cthskzfn]

Playoffs
August 21

Phoenix 8 Dallas 176.5
Los Angeles 6 Minnesota 151.5


Crap. Two games that are too difficult for me to get a good feel for, as all 4 numbers seem to be just about right. And, other than a 200-pt explosion in LA, not much would surprise me.

I'll hope Dallas' skid continues, Cambage gets ejected, and Diggins does her baby stomp most of the night. Pho -8

In LA, no Brunson or Ogumike? Or at most 75% of each? I agree LA looks less old than the Lynx. Could be a points-at-a-premium affair, with whichever team scores 80 wins. Or maybe 75. I'll take the home favorite again. LA-6

Both bets low on the conviction scale.




@ClayK- thanks!

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[pilight]

[cthskzfn]

Fagbenle nearly screwed me again. IIRC, she missed a late 3 a while back that would have earned me a cover. As it was, I lucked into a win in LA as the final minute loose ends went my way.

A nice 2-0 start to the playoffs.

43-34-1 [38-18, 11-8]

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

Last night I went 1-1, winning on the Sparks but losing on the Phoenix total. Congrats to Huskiesfan and Pilight for going a combined 3-0.

The updated odds to win the WNBA are:

Seattle 7/5
Atlanta 9/2
Los Angeles 11/2
Washington 11/2
Connecticut 13/2
Phoenix 13/2

These are the Las Vegas odds which, as I noted before, are not as generous as some online odds for futures bets. From these odds I suspect that both Connecticut and Washington will be very small favorites in the games Thursday (probably -2), and that they believe he road teams would actually be slightly tougher opponents moving forward. It also shows that Atlanta will probably be a small underdog in their semifinal series, regardless of who they play, and Seattle will be at least a 2/1 favorite.

[calbearman76]

August 23

Washington 5 Los Angeles 157.5
Connecticut 4 Phoenix 174.5

The LA game looks a lot like the game they played at the end of the season that was won by Natasha Cloud. That final was 69-67. I like the under. But there is a difference in the travel. The Sparks traveled cross-country but they had 2 two day's rest. This time they have only one and both Parker and Ogwumike have been ill (I expect both will play). And Washington actually had to travel back from Indiana, playing on only one day's rest. Now Washington has 3 days. I like the rest, I like the Mystics.

Connecticut is a 4 point favorite over a team that is now 5-0 in these one-and-done games. The Sun won 9 of their last 10, but only 2 of those wins were over teams that are still in the playoffs. I will take the Mercury +4 here, but in real life I'll take +165 for them to win outright. I also like the under.

[cthskzfn]

August 23

Washington 5 Los Angeles 157.5
Connecticut 4 Phoenix 174.5



Dang. Almost missed the early start time to the 1st game.

I'll guess the Mystics will cover the spread. The over is very tempting, but I'll pass.

Seems like conventional wisdom sides w/ the Mercury here, but I'm gonna give the nod to CT to outscore Pho. Again I find the over tempting. I can see a 92-85 type game. But I'll pass again.

The plays:

Wash -5
CT -4

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

2-2 today, winning both sides but losing both totals. The Washington total was painful as the last shot of the game is a banked in three to send the game over. On the plus side, in real life I was able to cash the money line on Phoenix so it was profitable anyway.

3-3 for the playoffs

[calbearman76]

Revised odds to win the WNBA

Seattle 6/5
Washington 5/2
Atlanta 5/1
Phoenix 5/1

Despite having home court Atlanta is a significant underdog to Washington in the semifinals. Expect the first game to be close to pick'em. Seattle has moved to 6/5 which would mean the Storm would be at least 2/1 favorites over the Mercury.

[Randy]

I don't see why they are so quick to drop the Mercury. Mercury seem to be playing better than ever now that Bonner is playing the 4 position. The Storm have no one who can stop the goat or Griner, and probably not Bonner either.

[ClayK]

Of the four, Phoenix seems like the best bet, but I don't know if 5-1 is a good deal or not.

_________________
Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā

[Michelle89]

[calbearman76]

August 26

Washington 2 @Atlanta 162
Seattle 6 Phoenix 173.5

Washington is in the best position of any team in the playoff in terms of schedule for today. They played 1 game in the past week so they are neither tired nor rusty. They won 8 of their last 9, only falling to Minnesota on the final day of the season after the game was rendered meaningless at halftime. (Did Thibault care about the loss? - He was wearing a (U of) Minnesota tie and celebrating Whalen.) Atlanta has been nearly as good, winning 15 of 17. But notably one of those 2 losses was to the Mystics in Atlanta on July 31, 86-71. In that game Atlanta couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, shooting only 36% from the floor including only 14% from 3. As for the total, the game was actually played at an over pace, 70-63 after 3 quarters. I will take the road-favorite Mystics and the over.


Seattle was the best team in the league by far this season. Phoenix has been the best team the past week, but they have had to fly cross-country and back in the past week. The last time these two teams played (also on July 31) Seattle won 102-91 in Phoenix. Even though they may be a little rusty to start the game, I really like the Storm, and I will also take the over.

As the semifinals start today, I went back to look at the preseason predictions on this board. The consensus was LA vs Minnesota, but I was more interested in what the thoughts were about the 4 teams remaining. Of 16 posters that put out a final standings prediction, only 1 (ReadyAIMFire) had all 4 teams make the playoffs. 2 posters had Atlanta missing out while 7 had Seattle and 7 had Washington out. Indeed the consensus choice had Seattle missing out. And here is one particularly prescient quote (no, I will not out the individual here):

[cthskzfn]

Washington 2 @Atlanta 162
Seattle 6 Phoenix 173.5


Well I split last time out, winning the Wash blowout of LA and going down with the choking Sun vs Pho in one of the better games of the yr. Naturally i balked on both overs which i had leaned toward. For being a wimp i go 1-1 rather than 3-1.

44-35-1

I wish Sea and Pho weren't matched up until next round.

The plays:
Atl +2 162 Over
Sea -6 173.5 Over

Only good feel is the 1st game over.

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

August 28

Washington 1.5 @Atlanta 163.5
Seattle 5.5 Phoenix 176.5

As expected both lines moved down slightly for game 2 as the NBA playoff ping pong theory (bet on the team that lost outright in the previous game) is in effect. The totals both moved up, but I believe this was more a direct adjustment to the way the games were played. I am going to stick with the Mystics and over. This is the best situation for Atlanta the entire series so the side is not a strong selection. I feel better about the total. The first game had totals for each quarter of 52, 41, 43 and 35. I don't see 171 points again, but I still see enough room for the over.

I continue to believe that Seattle is the best team by a reasonable amount. Their fourth quarter collapse that allowed Phoenix to climb back in the game is worrisome (and their inability to get a late rebound which would have likely led to a couple of free throws and a possible push was truly upsetting), but I think they will come back strong ang take full control of the series. As for the total, I don't expect another 100+ first half. Both of these teams can play defense, as they showed in the second half, so with the upward adjustment in the total, I'll take the under.


Sunday I went 3-1 to move my playoff record up to 6-4. The season is now 92-84-1, again tantalizingly close to breakeven. (Using the $110 bet standard that would be $19,470 wagered for a net loss of $40)

After the game 1 results the futures odds are now:

Seattle 2/3
Washington 5/2
Phoenix 8/1
Atlanta 17/2

[cthskzfn]

August 28

Washington 1.5 @Atlanta 163.5
Seattle 5.5 Phoenix 176.5

Tonight I'm going with the team with its back against the wall and who might have had an unlikely cover had MGT (my girl Tiff) made that last drive, but the ball dead-rolled off the rim instead.

In the nightcap, I think I should learn to take BGT-- Bonner, Griner and Taurasi, when getting points.

Winning both totals allowed me to avoid disaster on Sunday, but 2-2 is still a loss.

46-37-1 [41-21, 14-11]

The plays:

Atl +1.5
Pho +5.5

Low confidence on both, no confidence on the totals.

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

August 31

Washington 2 Atlanta 157.5
Phoenix 2 Seattle 172

The injury to EDD completely changes the Mystics series. I believe they would have found a way to win with her on Tuesday, but without her there was no flow on offense whatsoever. In one sense this could be seen as evening the scales with Angel out for Atlanta, but Delle Donne is more important overall. If EDD were healthy the line would be 6 or 6.5, but without her it is only 2. At this short line I will stick with the Stics. The total is down 5 points from the last game but I will still go under. This looks like a defensive struggle.

Seattle has collapsed twice in the fourth quarter, blowing large leads late. This looks like the one game Phoenix can actually get over the hump so I will take the Mercury. I will aso take the under.

Tuesday I swept the board, going 0-4. The Mystics lost when EDD went down, and a missed 3 stopped me from getting bailed out on the total. Seattle blew a 19 point lead, and a double digit lead in the last 2 minutes, and to add insult to injury the dead under game snuck over in OT.

[cthskzfn]

August 31

Washington 2 Atlanta 157.5
Phoenix 2 Seattle 172

I'm uncomfortable re EDD status so will pass on 1at game, although the under seems logical.

Will post 2nd game pick/s later.

-------------------------

ETA: Ok, well, the under is looking good in the 1st game, after 3 quarters.

In the 2nd game, Phoenix seems the logical choice as do or die should be a great motivator. I want the series to continue anyway, so....

I'll pass on the total, but the over, when Seattle is on the court, always seems good.

The play:

Phoenix -2

Forgot to log the Tues games.

Went 2-0 w/ Atl and Pho.

48-37-1 [43-21, 16-11]

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

September 2

Washington 2.5 Atlanta 160
Phoenix 2.5 Seattle 170.5

I believe that Delle Donne will play. If she plays at even 80%, her presence should help their entire offense. That gets me to Washington and over. Seattle was the best team all season. During this series Phoenix has been the best team, at least in the fourth quarter where they have outscored Seattle 74-34. If that continues there will be a game 5. My guess is that it won't. I'll take Seattle and the under.

Friday I was 3-1, even though the Mystics under nearly slipped away. That brings me to 9-9 for the playoffs and still below water for the season. Someone else is doing better than me, so I would be following Huskies fan.

[calbearman76]

What does EDD mean to the Mystics? The line dropped as low as 1 for today's game, but once it was learned she is playing the line has moved to 3.5 and the total has moved up to 161.5. In terms of the money line (just winning the game), the Mystics were as low as -115 (51% chance of winning) but the line is now -170 (62%)

[cthskzfn]

September 2

Washington 2.5 Atlanta 160
Phoenix 2.5 Seattle 170.5

49-37-1 [44-21 last 65, 17-11 since ASG, 8-3 for playoffs]

Ok, EDD starts. Doesn't mean she'll finish. Again, I don't like the game because of her status. Pass.

I'm riding the Merc Xpress until it's derailed. Might happen today, but Seattle's less than fabulous finishes might mean something (killer instinct?) is missing.

If the series goes 5, then Seattle loses, right, cuz GOAT is 15(?)-1 all-time in those games?

The play:

Pho -2.5

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

Not sure how I did it, but 4-0 today. The Phoenix ending was the pure luck that I feel I haven't been getting most of this season, but I will take it. That moves me to 13-9 for the playoffs, 99-89-1 for the season.

[cthskzfn]

Hmmph. Tough loss w/ Mercury failing to cover the damn hook, but at least we get a game 5, which is the best you can get in a series i.e., winner take all.

Two 5-game semis- we're blessed.

0-1

49-38-1 [44-22 last 66, 8-4 playoffs]

If Bird is hindered, does Stewie get Pho MVP vote?

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

September 4

Washington 3.5 @Atlanta 159
Seattle 5 Phoenix 170.5


The bettors have been speaking loudly since the lines were put up early this morning. Washington opened as a 1 point favorite overnight, moved up to a 2.5 favorite when the line was opened at the Westgate (the opening line I most respect) and has been bet up to 3.5. The total line has dropped from 163.5 all the way to 159. Seattle opened up at 4 and has been bet up as high as 5.5. Only the Phoenix total has barely moved opening at 171 and is still available a few places.

I generally agree with the opening lines and I understand the moves, but I wonder if they have been a little overdone. I will wait a few hours to get comfortable with my picks.

[cthskzfn]

September 4

Washington 3.5 @Atlanta 159
Seattle 5 Phoenix 170.5


Well here we go, 2 game 5s...

Hoping for a tough, close game in Atlanta and will take the 3.5. Low confidence though and am probably using too much heart and not sufficient head here.

In the nightcap marquee matchup, again I will take the points. It's back in Seattle, but unless DT and/or BG lose their minds and get T'd/ejected, I'll expect the general trend of the first four games to continue. Decent confidence.

Here's hoping for 2 great games.

The plays:

Atl +3.5
Pho +5

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.