RebKell's Junkie Boards

[calbearman76]

August 3

Washington 8.5 Las Vegas 169.5
Atlanta 8.5 Chicago 170
Seattle 6.5 Minnesota 162

Washington has split with Las Vegas, winning by 5 at home and losing by 12 in Las Vegas, but both of those games were in the first two weeks of the season. This looks like a somewhat difficult trip for the Aces, flying cross country to play a game with only 1 day of rest (their first time this season. But looking at their results after traveling 1000 miles with 0 or 1 day of rest the team has played well (the glory of youth). I expect they can keep this game close so I will take the points.


Atlanta had been the hottest team in the league before they lost on Tuesday. This looks like a good bounce back opportunity. The Sky have won two straight road games over Phoenix and Dallas, but Atlanta is a different type of team. I will take the Dream.

Last night I went 1-2 to fall to .500 on the year. Minnesota looked like an old team that just didn't have it anymore. Cheryl Reeve gave up and rested her starters in the 4th quarter so they would have something left in the tank tonight. I suspect that the Lynx will come out strong tonight and I may even bet them in the first half. But for the full game I have to take the better team. The Storm can take a solid step toward wrapping up a double bye tonight, and I think they will. Storm -6.5

[calbearman76]

[calbearman76]

August 4

New York 5.5 Indiana 159.5

The two worst teams face off in the worst venue, and Indiana couldn't even fly in the night before for a day game. It has all the drama of a WBB game between Iona and Fordham. The WNBA should invite the top college players so they can gain insight into their future. I'm undecided on the Gaels or the Rams but I will root for a lot of points, because overtime seems appropriate. OVER

[cthskzfn]

New York 5.5 Indiana 159.5

Losers R Us matchup. Fitting that I'm looking for my 1st post-ASG break win somewhere in this fiasco.

Zowie B makes 4 3s, Charles get 22/11, Liberty rolls to a 20-pt win.

The play:

NY -5.5

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[cthskzfn]

[calbearman76]

August 5

Connecticut 9 Las Vegas 171.5
Dallas 2.5 Washington 173.5
Minnesota 6 Atlanta 156
Los Angeles 7.5 Phoenix 161

Presumably Las Vegas has gotten well rested and will actually play this game. Even though Connecticut has righted its ship of late this line seems a little too high. Hopefully the Aces players can be focused today and I believe they will be. If so I don't see a double-digit outcome. LV +9.

Washington won't get stood up today. These two teams are probably the only two that would benefit from Friday's game being ruled a forfeit. Dallas is reeling, having lost its last 4, including 2 losses to Chicago and a loss to Indiana. My understanding is that Diggins will be back for the Wings. This is really a must win for Dallas and I think they will find a way. Dallas -2.5

Minnesota is overrated. I will be looking for spots to bet against them the rest of the season. But this isn't one of them. Atlanta hasn't lost a road game since June, but that game was in Minnesota. Pass

When healthy Los Angeles is one of the top 2 teams in the WNBA, and right now they are healthy. Phoenix has not beaten a playoff team in a month. The problem is that 8 of the Mercury's last 11 losses have been by less than 10 points. LA won their only other game this season by 8. Pass

After going 2-0 Friday I lost the total on yesterday's game by more than 30. That puts me at 63-62-1.

[cthskzfn]

August 5

Connecticut 9 Las Vegas 171.5
Dallas 2.5 Washington 173.5
Minnesota 6 Atlanta 156
Los Angeles 7.5 Phoenix 161

I am adrift at sea, rudderless, unable to pick even my nose, much less the W.

Goddamn stupid all-star game.

The NH North Country (lakes, mountains, wildlife, few humans, no sales tax) beckons.

No Plays.

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

Toliver scores the last 8 so I go 0-2 today and drop below .500. Not good.

It looks like Seattle will be about a 9 point favorite tomorrow morning with a total of 163. No play for now, but I'm not sure I will be up early enough to post an official line.

[calbearman76]

August 6

Seattle 9.5 @New York 164

New York is the worst team in the league now. What I don't know is whether they might come together for one home game in a real arena. My guess is no. Seattle -9.5

[Luuuc]

[calbearman76]

August 7

Atlanta 8 Las Vegas 166
Seattle 12 @Indiana 165.5
Minnesota 4.5 @Chicago 166
Phoenix 2.5 Washington 170



Atlanta is the hottest team in the WNBA, having won 10 of 11. Less well known, Atlanta's last 8 games have all gone under. Las Vegas has allowed 213 points in their last 3 losses, but that is only because 1 game was a forfeit. A win by Atlanta tonight will all but decide the 8 playoff teams and keep them a game ahead for the second double bye. As bad as the Aces defense has been, and believing that their could be some tension lingering, I will take Atlanta and the over.

Seattle vs Indiana. Best vs worst. (Actually right now I have NY rated below Indiana, but records are records.) The Storm will win, but I am not going to lay 12 points on the road. I expect this to be similar to the New York game yesterday where the Storm can turn it on whenever they want. But I do like the under. Indiana has been playing defense lately, with their last 4 going under. Both previous games between these teams went under, 73-62 in Seattle and 92-72 in Indiana.

Minnesota is no longer a quality team. They have had numerous opportunities to step up against other good teams and have consistently come up short. The Lynx are 4-6 in their last 10, but those wins were over Indiana (twice), New York and Phoenix (where Taurasi picked up 2 technicals in the first half, and the Lynx nearly blew a 15 point lead in the fourth quarter. The Sky was an 8.5 point underdog whem they beat the Lynx earlier this season, Pass.


Phoenix needs a win to stay in the hunt for a bye. Washington can still claim a double bye. The Mercury are only 2-8 in their last 10. These two teams have split the first two games, with the road team winning both. I like the Mystics.

[calbearman76]

August 8

Los Angeles 9 @New York 155
Connecticut 2.5 @Dallas 173.5

The Liberty are the worst team in the league now. I will not bet on them the rest of the season. The only question is will I bet against them. Today the answer is no. The Sparks are playing the front end of a back-to-back, with a game tomorrow at Atlanta. I'm not convinced the Sparks will put forth a full effort, particularly in the fourth quarter when they already have a comfortable lead.

The Sun-Wings game is all about Diggins. She is listed as questionable, but the line has moved down from 4 to 2.5. Sunday I believed she would play and lost as a result. Not knowing today I will pass for now.

[calbearman76]

Accidentally hit submit. I hate not having at least 1 play so I may find inspiration later.

Yesterday I was 3-1 due to a nice run by Atlanta to cover against Las Vegas. That leaves me at 67-65-1. But the prime takeaway is that 4 of the 8 teams that played last night hit the century mark. Defense may be hard to find the rest of the regular season.

[Shades]

The last score between Dallas and Connecticut was 92-75. That’s with Diggins playing and Stricken going off for a very rare 24 pts. I know scores in general have been very high lately, but the under on the Dallas game is looking somewhat tempting.

_________________
Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned

[calbearman76]

August 9

Washington 1 Seattle 172
Los Angeles 2.5 @Atlanta 154
Minnesota 2 @Las Vegas 165.5

The Mystics have every reason to put forth a strong effort. If Los Angeles beats Atlanta, a win would leave them in a three way tie for the second bye. Seattle need only 2 wins to earn the top seed, but this won't be the day for it. Mystics -1.

That is what I would have said if I had gotten up in time, but alas 8:30 has come and gone.

Atlanta continues to win. I'm sure that LA was looking forward to this came and didn't put forth their best effort yesterday, but having to play down to the final buzzer against the Liberty can't help them tonight. I like Atlanta, even without Angel, and I also like the over.


Las Vegas has completely given up on defense. In their last 3 games they have allowed 109, 109 and 104. Strangely, despite thos 3 losses and the forfeit the Aces are still not out of the playoff race. A win over the Lynx would get them within 1.5 games of the Wings. The Aces also have an easy schedule, including Indiana, New York and Dallas. I haven't like the Lynx for awhile, but I believe that Moore and Fowles will pull things together to dowse the Aces hopes and I also like the over.

[cthskzfn]

[calbearman76]

They couldn't even let the Sparks throw up a meaningless 3.

[calbearman76]

August 10

Connecticut 9.5 @Chicago 177.5
Phoenix 12 Indiana 166.5

Neither one of these games excites me. The Sun have returned to their form of earlier in the season. They beat the Sky 110-72 on June 1 and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same type of game, but this is the first of a home-and-home series. That could work against a blowout. As for the total, 177.5 is almost high enough to tempt me on the under. Almost. Pass

Phoenix has not been the same since the loss of Sancho Lyttle. Griner, Taurasi and Bonner continue to have decent stats but the team as a whole has been bad. The Mercury are 2-9 over the last 11 and haven't beaten a playoff team in over a month. But the Fever isn't a playoff team. This is a game where they should be able to get well. They have beaten Indiana by 18 and 19 this season and I expect another easy win. Phoenix -12.

Yesterday was a frustrating 2-2, winning both sides but losing both totals with ugly 4th quarters. 69-67-1 for the season.

[cthskzfn]

August 10

Connecticut 9.5 @Chicago 177.5
Phoenix 12 Indiana 166.5

"Yesterday was a frustrating 2-2, winning both sides but losing both totals with ugly 4th quarters."

Indeed. Yet, 2-2 is an improvement from 0-4, so thanks for the resuscitation.

34-32-1 [29-16, 2-6]


The Plays:

177.5 Over ...On Allie! on Stricklen! on Jonquel! on Courtney!...
Pho -12

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

August 11

Atlanta 6 Dallas 167.5
Las Vegas 10.5 Indiana 167

Atlanta has been the best surprise of the season, They come into this game having won 11 of 12 and are 1 game ahead of Washington. They also hold the tiebreaker over all of their pursuers. Dallas has lost its last 6 and if it weren't for Las Vegas' slump could be playing itself out of the playoffs. This should be easy for the Dream, but coming off their big win over LA and without Angel, I see a letdown looming. All the trends keep me from playing the Wings so I will pass.


Las Vegas looked like they were ready to make a playoff run coming into August, but the Aces haven't won in 4 outings and an "inning" this month. With the Wings collapse and a very favorable schedule they still have a shot, but it is a slim one. Indiana is the perfect opponent, particularly playing a back-to-back after losing at Phoenix last night. I will take the Aces.


Last night Phoenix won easily in my only play to raise my season record to 70-67-1.

[cthskzfn]

August 11

Atlanta 6 Dallas 167.5
Las Vegas 10.5 Indiana 167

Two teams going in opposite directions. After Dallas won at LA on 7/12, their season fell apart. Atlanta beat LA last time out. Will that win kick-start a Dream slumber? Hope not. Atl -6.

Vegas should blow Indy out, but I don't trust them. Did they all sleep well last night?

The Play:
Atl -6

Well, the fresh NH air worked its magic again, giving me a 2-0 night yesterday.

2-0, 36-32-1 [31-16, 4-6]

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

August 12

Atlanta 6 @New York 160
Washington 9.5 Dallas 172.5
Connecticut 12.5 Chicago 179
Seattle 1 @Minnesota 162.5
Phoenix PK Los Angeles 162

One week to go. Before I look at today's games let's look at where everyone stands and what they have to play for.

Seattle 23-8
Already has the double bye locked up, and needs any 2 wins or Atlanta losses to get the #1 seed.

Atlanta 21-10
Needs 2 wins to wrap up a double bye, but could fall to fourth if they lose their final 3 road games.

Washington 19-11
Can finish anywhere from second to seventh.

Los Angeles 18-12
Can finish anywhere from second to seventh. Wins today and Tuesday vs. NY would set up a big final weekend on the East Coast at Washington and Connecticut for a first round bye.

Connecticut 17-13
Four home games remaining to capture a first round bye.

Minnesota 17-13
The Lynx weren't supposed to be fighting for a first round bye, but that is where they find themselves. Games against Seattle, Washington and Connecticut in the final week make the path difficult, but if they are a championship team this would be a good time to show it.

Phoenix 17-14
Even with 3 wins the Mercury are probably destined to play in the first round.

Dallas 14-16
Needs any 2 wins or LV losses to make the playoffs. This could be accomplished by beating the Aces in Dallas on Friday, but otherwise their schedule is tough and the Aces' is not.

Las Vegas 13-18
Just get to Dallas with a chance to make the playoffs.

Chicago 11-19
Hanging on to the slimmest of playoff chances

New York 7-22
Indiana 5-26
Eliminated

Now to today's games

Nothing seems to be slowing Atlanta. Now they have to travel for a day game on a back-to-back. If they were playing a team that cared at all this would really be a challenge, but it is the Liberty. I'll take Atlanta.

Dallas also has to travel and they have the extra problem of Cambage maybe missing another game. Dallas played well against Atlanta but couldn't win again. I will take the Mystics.

Connecticut just lost to the Sky, but I can't see that happening again. I like the Sun to win and for the game to go over as they hit triple figures.

Minnesota needs this game while Seattle can lose this game and still wrap up the number 1 seed with wins at home against New York and Dallas. I don't think it matters. The Storm are the better team and this is a way of proving to themselves and everyone else that they are the team to beat going into the playoffs. Seattle.

Phoenix hasn't beaten a playoff team since July 5 and I don't expect that to change here. LA wants to avoid the first round and to do so they need a win today. I think they get it. LA

[cthskzfn]

Atlanta 6 @New York 160
Washington 9.5 Dallas 172.5
Connecticut 12.5 Chicago 179
Seattle 1 @Minnesota 162.5
Phoenix PK Los Angeles 162

Back-back w/ travel is a concern, but I like Atl.

Seattle only needs to beat an over-the-hill gang? Nice. Seattle.

LA is the better team, Pho problem w/ good teams is duly noted above. LA

The plays:

Atl -6
Seattle -1
LA pk

The resurgence continued w/ last night's Atl cover.

1-0, 37-32-1 [32-16, 5-6]

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[cthskzfn]

2-1 Sunday, now 39-33-1 [34-17, 7-7].

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

August 14

Connecticut 8.5 Dallas 177
Minnesota 9.5 Chicago 163.5
Los Angeles 14 New York 154.5

Three games, no clear choices. I don't know how to read the situation with the Wings. Firing the coach in the final week of the season is strange, but when you fight with the boss publicly and things aren't going well for the team it was inevitable. What I really don't know is where the players stand. In the end, this game isn't as important as it may seem because the Wings will play the Aces in their next game. I'll take the Sun even though I was not impressed with them the way they played against the Sky in their last two games.


Chicago is playing their best basketball of the season. Minnesota has long been a team that wasn't interested in winning big, just winning. But as winning has become less certain the Lynx have covered more big spreads. The Lynx can still get a first round bye. I'll take the Sky to compete hard and I might even make a small bet on them winning outright at 4/1.


The Liberty just don't care. They have been awful. Even when they ran off to a 16 point lead over Atlanta in their final home game, it was just a matter of time before they collapsed. Now they get to finish the season with a 4 game western road trip and nothing to play for (because they have no pride.) I hate laying 14, but I'll do it here.


Sunday I was 3-3, losing both the side and total on the Sun who didn't come out ready to play. They even came back strong and were covering the spread in the 4th but they let the Sky come back to cover. 73-70-1 for the season.


Tomorrow I will be driving down to Vegas (450 miles) to see the Liberty. I thought it would be a good game when I bought the tickets, but that is just another bet I lost. Las Vegas in August, where better for a quick getaway. The biggest upset is that the current weather prediction for Thursday is a high of 96. I'll still be surprised if it doesn't hit 100, and be happy it isn't 115.