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Wings @ Liberty - 7/08/18
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NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 4:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

What I actually came here to say is how I was watching LA-Seattle. Seattle had 7 blocks in regulation alone. They and LA play such good defense. The league is moving away from physicality and toward the long, athletic types.

I’m intrigued by this Ezi Magbegor for the Libs. Only problem is she’s a developmental type it seems. Something we don’t have time for. But if you could acquire a second first-rounder she’d be a nice addition.



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NYSports56



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 4:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote:
My problem with decreasing Nurse’s minutes is that:

-It came off a strong game against Chicago
-Even when struggling to score, she gives you energy, presence, good passing, some offensive rebounding and can get to the foul line when the offense flows through her.

If we’re going strictly by performance from game to game Sugar should play far less if the criteria is bad shooting. Like Nurse, Sugar plays D, but if she’s not scoring she literally gives you nothing else. Straight up, Kia Nurse is a better basketball player than Sugar Rodgers.

Also when Sugar and Nurse are on the floor together, the ball goes through Sugar 80% of the time if not more. Harder to score when you go from having the ball in your hands a lot (when Piph and Sugar were hurt) to not knowing when you’ll touch it.

And I’m glad you brought it up because I’ve kind of skirted around this point. For me personally, it’s not just the minutes. The on-court role was significantly reduced (without Nurse doing anything wrong) from the moment Sugar started playing decent minutes.

And with Nurse playing 20+ minutes the team is 4-7. When playing less the team is 1-7. Either way not good. But they’ve proven to be a better team when Nurse plays.


Excellent response, NYL.

Yeah, it came after a good game in Chicago. I mentioned the irony. But they lost that game, and the next game began her big reduction in minutes. They won that game on the road against the same team they had lost to the night before at home. Kia's reduction in minutes broke a huge losing streak. I guess that's the only game they've won with less than 20 minutes for her. Katie experimented with reducing her minutes, and it worked. It was only one game, but it was a win, and I really can't blame Katie for seeing if it would work over the next few games.

I agree about her energy, presence, good passing, some offensive rebounding. I really like her game, and I have high hopes. I do not underrate those things, but I also don't feel her current passing and rebounding are that spectacular. Especially the passing; there's a reason she's not too successful at point guard. I agree that she always gives full effort, and that is a huge plus. I notice you didn't mention defense, and I think you were right for doing so. Despite her energy and quickness, she still has a lot to learn defensively and is not always effective.

You make some excellent points about Sugar Rodgers. As for when they're on the floor together, that in itself is a problem. They're both shooting guards--I do not see Nurse as a small forward. As for Sugar getting the ball 80% of the time, yeah, Sugar's never seen a shot she doesn't like.

However, I think the 80% of the offense going through Sugar is a bit of an exaggeration. I don't know exactly when Sugar came back, but Nurse started missing threes without minute reductions and without reductions in shots taken; in the three games after her best game, she averaged 4.3 three-point attempts a game. After that, she averaged 4 attempts per game until the reduction in minutes (again shooting 22%). The comparison in overall FG attempts also shows a very small difference: 7.0 vs. 6.8.

I agree that it seems like she is not as big a part of the offense as she first was. However, the numbers suggest that the difference is not as great as you or I thought. She's still taking shots, and I don't think her shot selection has worsened.

I can't fault Katie for trying other things when Nurse wasn't producing. Sugar has produced from the perimeter in the past, and with Kia unable to duplicate her amazing but short streak, and with the Liberty losing and desperate in need of outside shooting, it was a good idea to give Sugar a major look to see if she could help. Like all other Liberty outside shooters, Sugar failed.

The difference in records depending on Kia's minutes says something, but it should be noted that it's a really small sample (as are the numbers I considered in my 13 game shooting analysis).




Last edited by NYSports56 on 07/10/18 5:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 5:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I can’t argue with the numbers. And my 80% is probably high. But I would say Nurse is not getting as many primary opportunities with the ball in her hands to create. She’s still shooting 3s. What she’s not doing is getting to the line, which is something she was doing when she was being used to facilitate offense instead of being just a catch and shoot player from 3. Her raw FG attempts might be the same but her FTA are way down. Looks like her two point attempts are too.

I wouldn’t mind any of this except that the person who is trying to create for herself (Sugar) isn’t good at it. I’d rather Nurse create for Sugar. I’d guess that a decent amount of Sugar’s made 3s were assisted by Nurse. And at the end of the day I know Nurse isn’t Maya Moore or DT creating offense. But how bad for how long does Sugar have to be before we see what the kid can do, when we know she’s (Nurse) better at certain stuff to begin with?



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Last edited by NYL_WNBA_FAN on 07/10/18 5:14 pm; edited 2 times in total
Lib Fan



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 5:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Can something be over analyzed ?
Just asking Rolling Eyes



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NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 5:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nobody said you had to read it. This is a WNBA message board is it not? I’d say the merits of who plays are pretty important given what we’ve seen with Katie’s decision making. It cost us potentially 2-3 games early in the season and might not have snowballed otherwise. Wouldn’t you agree?



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WNBA 09



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 5:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Lib Fan wrote:
Can something be over analyzed ?
Just asking Rolling Eyes


He's a nurse fanatic .



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NYSports56



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 5:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote:
What she’s not doing is getting to the line, which is something she was doing when she was being used to facilitate offense instead of being just a catch and shoot player from 3.

Unfortunately, when I put the stats together I did not track free throws. I'm not going to go back and measure the attempts, but with the stats we have, we can look at how many free throws Nurse is making. When doing so, in the three games after the breakout game but before the slump, she only made 3 free throws (and yes, a 3 game sample means almost nothing, but it's what we have). After that, even if you include the games where she had 10 minutes or less, she actually averaged more free throws made a game (approx 1.2). Again, though it might be true, the numbers do not suggest she is getting to the line less.

NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote:
Her raw FG attempts might be the same but her FTA are way down. Looks like her two point attempts are too.

Not true: if the 3 point percentage is about equal, and the overall FGs are about equal, then the 2 point percentage is about equal.


zune69



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 5:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

...


NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 5:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
Lib Fan wrote:
Can something be over analyzed ?
Just asking Rolling Eyes


He's a nurse fanatic .


I like Nurse but for me it’s about winning. Not if my favs play. Same as it’s always been. Thing is, usually my favs are the types who help teams win. That’s all it’s about.



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NYSports56



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 5:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Lib Fan wrote:
Can something be over analyzed ?
Just asking Rolling Eyes

Yes: it's over analyzed when everybody keeps on saying the same things over and over again. I don't think that's the case here. Yes, there's a lot of analysis, but we are discussing it productively bringing up points and counterpoints. I don't think we're repeating ourselves; I think we are debating Katie and Sugar's effect on Kia Nurse, and neither one is debating to win; we're debating to learn. When I checked the stats, I had no idea how they'd turn out. I did not have an agenda while doing so; if they indicated I was wrong about Kia's reduction in minutes being warranted, I'd have posted that the stats reinforced what NYL said.

If you think using statistics is overanalysis, then I will not be your favorite poster, because I like to use them. Most sports stats do not completely tell the story, and I fully recognize that. I just like seeing if the stats back up the observations.


NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 5:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nurse had 37 FTA in the games before Sugar returned from injury. She’s had 15 since, with at least the 2 on Sunday and a few others coming in garbage time.



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NYSports56



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 5:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

We're all Kia Nurse fanatics. At least we should be. Don't let this discussion fool you into believing that I am anti-Nurse. If I had to pick who would be our next best player next year besides Tina Charles, I'd pick Kia.


NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 5:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Great discussion no doubt. Much appreciated. For me, I can talk about this stuff for as long as I have the time to. The WNBA is my favorite sport.



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 6:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote:
Nurse had 37 FTA in the games before Sugar returned from injury. She’s had 15 since, with at least the 2 on Sunday and a few others coming in garbage time.


Excellent stat supporting your point, although 16 of those 37 attempts came in her 34 point game alone. So the freak game really helped her average "before Sugar." Mean average, that is. While mean average is in my opinion the most important one, median average gives you more of an idea of what you would expect in the majority of games. The difference between median average before Sugar and after Sugar is nowhere near as large as the mean (I don't know how big the difference is: when did Sugar get back?).


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PostPosted: 07/10/18 6:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I have been very vocal since the early games of the season that I find Nurse extremely impressive for a rookie. I very much appreciate the detailed and valuable comments made here by NYL_WNBA_FAN and by NYSports56.



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NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 6:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

NYSports56 wrote:
NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote:
Nurse had 37 FTA in the games before Sugar returned from injury. She’s had 15 since, with at least the 2 on Sunday and a few others coming in garbage time.


Excellent stat supporting your point, although 16 of those 37 attempts came in her 34 point game alone. So the freak game really helped her average "before Sugar." Mean average, that is. While mean average is in my opinion the most important one, median average gives you more of an idea of what you would expect in the majority of games. The difference between median average before Sugar and after Sugar is nowhere near as large as the mean (I don't know how big the difference is: when did Sugar get back?).


First Vegas game.



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 6:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

NYL_WNBA_FAN wrote:
First Vegas game.

...and that's exactly where Nurse's slump began. That says a lot with respect to this discussion.

One other thing to consider: how much of Kia's drop off after the 34 point game is due to opposing defenses respecting her and viewing the tapes of her games? Teams probably learned how to defend her a little better after a few games, particularly since she was the type of rookie that made you stand up and take notice


NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 6:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think it’s a mix of everything. I think Katie’s offense has been scouted more thoroughly as has Nurse’s game. At the end of the day she still has to hit shots too of course. A big thing that I think applies not only to Nurse but elsewhere is that it took like 15 games to get to a point where there’s been stable rotations. In that process I think a lot of players have been affected.

I was telling my buddy the other day how since we are basically out of the playoffs barring divine intervention we can at least still root for wins without hurting our potential draft position. We’re basically locked into the lowest lottery position if/once we miss the playoffs.

Another note. I actually like the offensive system, which is another reason I think Katie needs another year, particularly if they add another talented perimeter player. They get open looks all day. Of course when you’re missing them teams sag off. But still. Early in the year when the offense looked better they were still getting good looks. Their spacing is almost always good. And the stuff they run out of that 1-4 set gets a lot of motion going. I’d just like to see the first pass in that set be to Nurse more often. 😉



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 7:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think it is hard to figure out who of our perimeter players should be getting 30 minutes a night when everyone is being equally mediocre.

Different players have stepped up in one game or another but no one has done it so consistently that they have claim to those "starter" level minutes.

In the beginning because a number of player were missing time Nurse and Coleman were looking good, but most coaches are going to give their vet slash former all-stars a change to make it happen when they return and when given a chance no one is consistently proving they deserve the minutes, so I understand how Smith is having trouble game in and game out figuring who to play.

And while the fans on this board are slowing giving up on this season, are looking to the lottery and want development for the future I doubt a first year coach trying to make a name for herself and the people trying to drum up interest in the Liberty from a new ownership group want anything but wins and team success which is probably leading to stress and desperation since nothing seems to be working at the nomebt and things seem to just be getting worse.


NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 8:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I agree with all that. But at this point isn’t Nurse the best all-around guard they have? Even if you’re not abandoning the season to play youth (I get that), how does playing Sugar 18 minutes at this point give you the best chance to win?



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PostPosted: 07/10/18 10:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I don't disagree, I would like to see Nurse getting 25 minutes a night.

But Smith has been an assistant with the team when Sugar was an integral part of multiple 20 win seasons, so I'm sure there is some thought that Rodgers is just in a slump and could play her way out of it.


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PostPosted: 07/10/18 11:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

J-Spoon wrote:
I don't disagree, I would like to see Nurse getting 25 minutes a night.

But Smith has been an assistant with the team when Sugar was an integral part of multiple 20 win seasons, so I'm sure there is some thought that Rodgers is just in a slump and could play her way out of it.


Sugar Rodgers had a career year in 2016, making 40.5% of her two-point shots and 41.3% of her three-pointers. But her stats over the other 4 1/2 years of her WNBA career aren't close to that. The shooting we're seeing from Rodgers this season isn't a "slump." It's who she is.



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PostPosted: 07/11/18 12:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vySY9YunYX0" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>


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PostPosted: 07/11/18 3:24 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

*duplicate*




Last edited by tfan on 07/11/18 10:40 am; edited 1 time in total
NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 07/11/18 9:42 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Bob Lamm wrote:
J-Spoon wrote:
I don't disagree, I would like to see Nurse getting 25 minutes a night.

But Smith has been an assistant with the team when Sugar was an integral part of multiple 20 win seasons, so I'm sure there is some thought that Rodgers is just in a slump and could play her way out of it.


Sugar Rodgers had a career year in 2016, making 40.5% of her two-point shots and 41.3% of her three-pointers. But her stats over the other 4 1/2 years of her WNBA career aren't close to that. The shooting we're seeing from Rodgers this season isn't a "slump." It's who she is.


I agree 100% about this not being a slump and who she is, based on her performance. What I do, however, find maddening about Sugar is that she buries 3 after 3 after 3 in warmups seamlessly. Granted it’s not game action. But it’s atypical to see someone able to bury 3 after 3 in warmups and not do it in a game.

But to the point this can’t be classified as a slump. One reason maybe why Sugar doesn’t hit 3s in games (aside from questionable shot selection) is because people play her knowing other parts of her game aren’t a threat.



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