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NYL_WNBA_FAN



Joined: 28 May 2007
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PostPosted: 07/05/18 2:15 pm    ::: lottery odds Reply Reply with quote
I apologize because I asked this question before but cannot find the answer anywhere. I know the odds for the first overall pick but what are the odds for the second overall pick?



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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 5155
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 07/05/18 11:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote
#1 team (1st pick - 44.2%, 2nd pick - 31.5%, 3rd pick - 24.3%)
#2 team (27.6%, 31.1%, 37.3%, 4.3%)
#3 team (17.8%, 23.0%, 38.7%, 20.5%)
#4 team (10.4%, 14.4%, -, 75.2%)
J-Spoon



Joined: 31 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: 07/06/18 5:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote
Since #1 can't land at the 4 pick and #4 can't land at the 3 pick does that mean that only picks 1 and 2 are drawn randomly and then picks 3 and 4 are assigned to the remaining two teams worse two year record first?
Randy



Joined: 08 Oct 2011
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PostPosted: 07/06/18 7:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote
J-Spoon wrote:
Since #1 can't land at the 4 pick and #4 can't land at the 3 pick does that mean that only picks 1 and 2 are drawn randomly and then picks 3 and 4 are assigned to the remaining two teams worse two year record first?


Close enough if not exact. Finishing 4th makes it unlikely they get anything but 4. They really ought to do away with the lottery entirely and just go on the 2 year record. The whole idea was to eliminate opportunistic tanking and I think going to the 2 year record does that.
Richyyy



Joined: 17 Nov 2005
Posts: 24352
Location: London


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PostPosted: 07/06/18 8:30 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote
J-Spoon wrote:
Since #1 can't land at the 4 pick and #4 can't land at the 3 pick does that mean that only picks 1 and 2 are drawn randomly and then picks 3 and 4 are assigned to the remaining two teams worse two year record first?

Yes, the ping pong balls are only used for picks #1 and #2 these days (since they went to the two-year system). #3 goes to the worst team left, hence it's impossible for the worst team to drop below 3 (and the fourth team either has to jump into the top two or gets #4).



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