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J-Spoon



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PostPosted: 06/14/18 1:33 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Also yes I would waive R. Allen and give Hamson a shot

Hartley/Boyd
Zellous/Rodgers/Prince
Coleman/Nurse
Charles/Zahui B
Stokes/Hamson/Vaughn

(I would also like to see one of Rodgers, Boyd, Prince or Nurse step up to the point where they knock one of the starters off the front line, or become that bench player who gets more minutes than the starter but ATM I feel much more confident in Hartley, Zellous and shocked to say Coleman. Even with the subtraction of R. Allen it still feels like their are too many players competing for the 120 minutes on the perimeter but no one is stepping up and demanding those minutes through their play. OK I'm being a little impatient with the players just back from injury).


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PostPosted: 06/14/18 10:21 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

J-Spoon wrote:
Also yes I would waive R. Allen and give Hamson a shot

Hartley/Boyd
Zellous/Rodgers/Prince
Coleman/Nurse
Charles/Zahui B
Stokes/Hamson/Vaughn

(I would also like to see one of Rodgers, Boyd, Prince or Nurse step up to the point where they knock one of the starters off the front line, or become that bench player who gets more minutes than the starter but ATM I feel much more confident in Hartley, Zellous and shocked to say Coleman. Even with the subtraction of R. Allen it still feels like their are too many players competing for the 120 minutes on the perimeter but no one is stepping up and demanding those minutes through their play. OK I'm being a little impatient with the players just back from injury).


Ouchhh Shocked



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PostPosted: 06/14/18 1:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So, I did a little research. On the left are some team statistics compared to last year. On the right is a summary of key statistics for each game, as well as a quick and dirty analysis of why the Liberty won or lost.



Certain trends are emerging. First of all, the team is shooting a lot more 3's without an increase in accuracy. Actually, the rate has gone down although their rank hasn't. Why are they shooting almost seven more 3s per game? Is it planned? Has Katie Smith taken an analytical approach and decided to be the Quentin Hillsman of the WNBA? Is it because she has given the players more freedom and this is what they've decided to do with it? When I drill down, I see that Charles and Zahui combined have gone from 2.3 3PA to 5.9 3PA, so that's 3.6 more from the post. This isn't justified because they're shooting 21.3%. The other big factor for the increase in 3PA is probably personnel related. They replaced NRE and L. Allen who combined for 0-17 for all of 2017 with Coleman and Nurse who are already 23-65 35.4% in eight games. The impact is a little overstated because Coleman/Nurse have also been filling in for the missing Rodgers/Prince combination who put up 9.2 3PA (34.2% made) in 2017. So, it looks like the increase in shooting 3s is partly players' choice and partly personnel change. Either way, if you're only 8th in accuracy, then you shouldn't be first in attempts.

Interestingly, in the last two games, shooting a lot of 3s probably helped New York win against Indiana, but helped them lose against LVA. Just as importantly, shooting a lot of 3s is probably decreasing their FT attempts. NY is currently last in the league at getting to the line. That certainly contributed to last night's loss, but it also hurt them in a loss to Phoenix. Their overall numbers would be much worse if not for an outlier performance of 30-32 in the first Indiana game.

The other two major changes from last season -- really the last five seasons -- is the drop-off in both rebounding and opponent's field goal percentage. The decrease in rebounding is probably partly due to the use of the small line-up, as well as Stokes being missing for a number of games. It's also likely that the increase in 3Pt shots has impacted their offensive rebounding. O-boards have gone down from 10.7 to 9.1, but the drop has been much worse in certain games. On the flip side, offensive rebounds are up for their opponents, and overall the differential has dropped from +3.2 in 2017 to +0.6 in 2018. The defensive rebounding differential has dropped even more drastically, going from +3.7 to -1.4.

As far as the defensive field goal percentage goes, I thought we would see an increase in 2nd chance points because of offensive rebounds given up. The number is actually slightly down, although it was certainly a problem against CT. I'm not exactly sure why the defensive FG% is worse. Some of it may be general ineffectiveness resulting from the small line-up. Giving up more rebounds can also lead to the opponent getting easier baskets, although the fastbreak points differential isn't that large. Maybe there's been a change to the defensive approach that is not obvious in the stats.

To sum it up, New York is shooting more 3s and fewer free throws on offense. They are less effective at preventing made shots on defense, and they are worse in rebounding on both sides of the ball. Again, how much of this is the result of scheme changes versus early season chemistry issues combined with injuries is hard to say. I have no idea what Katie Smith is trying to do. The only thing we've heard is that there will be more movement and freedom on offense this year, and then the usual comments about running more. I don't really notice more movement, and the freedom seems to be resulting in a lot of one-on-one dribbling which eventually leads to a 3Pt shot. As far as running goes, it's amusing since they've gone from 11th in fastbreak points to 12th. If the team is running, it's not resulting in points.



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PostPosted: 06/14/18 4:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thanks for this research and valuable analysis.



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PostPosted: 06/14/18 5:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Great stuff ... one thing coaches can do is emphasize. Laimbeer always emphasized physicality, which translates directly to rebounds and usually to free-throw attempts. It also helps out defensively, assuming the refs let some things go.

It doesn't appear Smith is emphasizing the same things, or at least emphasizing them effectively. (Note that Charles had one rebound last game.)

Coaches can't control talent level, and I don't think New York is in the top half of the league in that regard, but it does seem they should be playing better.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 06/14/18 6:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think under Laimbeer the Liberty usually played above their talent level. Now they may be playing below it, but injuries, late arrivals and the unbalanced roster may be the main cause. Takes time to learn how to be a head coach just like any other job as well.


Fighting Artichoke



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PostPosted: 06/14/18 8:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
I think under Laimbeer the Liberty usually played above their talent level. Now they may be playing below it, but injuries, late arrivals and the unbalanced roster may be the main cause. Takes time to learn how to be a head coach just like any other job as well.

True, but aren't most teams suffering late arrivals and injuries? And isn't the make-up of this year's team similar to past years (i.e., there has been little player turnover => -Nayo, -Allen +Nurse, +Coleman +Boyd)?


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PostPosted: 06/14/18 8:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Not all teams are afflicted with the same problems, but certainly some were. Also, as I recall the Liberty didn't start out all that great last year, but went on a late season run with a 10 game win streak. So a lot of the over performance so to speak happened in the last weeks of the year.


NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 06/14/18 9:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
So, I did a little research. On the left are some team statistics compared to last year. On the right is a summary of key statistics for each game, as well as a quick and dirty analysis of why the Liberty won or lost.



Certain trends are emerging. First of all, the team is shooting a lot more 3's without an increase in accuracy. Actually, the rate has gone down although their rank hasn't. Why are they shooting almost seven more 3s per game? Is it planned? Has Katie Smith taken an analytical approach and decided to be the Quentin Hillsman of the WNBA? Is it because she has given the players more freedom and this is what they've decided to do with it? When I drill down, I see that Charles and Zahui combined have gone from 2.3 3PA to 5.9 3PA, so that's 3.6 more from the post. This isn't justified because they're shooting 21.3%. The other big factor for the increase in 3PA is probably personnel related. They replaced NRE and L. Allen who combined for 0-17 for all of 2017 with Coleman and Nurse who are already 23-65 35.4% in eight games. The impact is a little overstated because Coleman/Nurse have also been filling in for the missing Rodgers/Prince combination who put up 9.2 3PA (34.2% made) in 2017. So, it looks like the increase in shooting 3s is partly players' choice and partly personnel change. Either way, if you're only 8th in accuracy, then you shouldn't be first in attempts.

Interestingly, in the last two games, shooting a lot of 3s probably helped New York win against Indiana, but helped them lose against LVA. Just as importantly, shooting a lot of 3s is probably decreasing their FT attempts. NY is currently last in the league at getting to the line. That certainly contributed to last night's loss, but it also hurt them in a loss to Phoenix. Their overall numbers would be much worse if not for an outlier performance of 30-32 in the first Indiana game.

The other two major changes from last season -- really the last five seasons -- is the drop-off in both rebounding and opponent's field goal percentage. The decrease in rebounding is probably partly due to the use of the small line-up, as well as Stokes being missing for a number of games. It's also likely that the increase in 3Pt shots has impacted their offensive rebounding. O-boards have gone down from 10.7 to 9.1, but the drop has been much worse in certain games. On the flip side, offensive rebounds are up for their opponents, and overall the differential has dropped from +3.2 in 2017 to +0.6 in 2018. The defensive rebounding differential has dropped even more drastically, going from +3.7 to -1.4.

As far as the defensive field goal percentage goes, I thought we would see an increase in 2nd chance points because of offensive rebounds given up. The number is actually slightly down, although it was certainly a problem against CT. I'm not exactly sure why the defensive FG% is worse. Some of it may be general ineffectiveness resulting from the small line-up. Giving up more rebounds can also lead to the opponent getting easier baskets, although the fastbreak points differential isn't that large. Maybe there's been a change to the defensive approach that is not obvious in the stats.

To sum it up, New York is shooting more 3s and fewer free throws on offense. They are less effective at preventing made shots on defense, and they are worse in rebounding on both sides of the ball. Again, how much of this is the result of scheme changes versus early season chemistry issues combined with injuries is hard to say. I have no idea what Katie Smith is trying to do. The only thing we've heard is that there will be more movement and freedom on offense this year, and then the usual comments about running more. I don't really notice more movement, and the freedom seems to be resulting in a lot of one-on-one dribbling which eventually leads to a 3Pt shot. As far as running goes, it's amusing since they've gone from 11th in fastbreak points to 12th. If the team is running, it's not resulting in points.


Tremendous analysis. Nice respite for me personally in two ways...first off because it's completely accurate and second because it gets away from the raw emotion of losing so badly and gets into the why.

A few things to add on my part. The lack of fastbreak points I think is directly attributed to Hartley's below average ball-handling and court vision for a point guard. She's kind of fast but it's negated by that ridiculously high handle and the fact that she never looks upcourt for streaking players who might get easy layups. Another thing that I think is directly related to the lack of a true point guard is that I don't feel the 3-point shooters are consistently getting the ball in the right places at the right times. That can be traced to the ball still getting stuck on one side of the floor too often without ball movement to the opposite side. It's hard to rely on an offense involving players breaking down the defense when there's a lack of consistency in that area from the PG spot. I'll get to defense in a minute but I think you could get away without a true PG in a Laimbeer offense because Tina was also used as a facilitator. Now that's not as frequently the case. I'm not sold they can be a 20+ win team without a PG running this offense. As you pointed out, there's also a difference between using the 3 as a weapon with your best outside shooters and being overly reliant on it with players who are regularly bricking it. Our 10 game winning streak was sparked by getting back to using Charles in the post as the primary source of offense. It led to her back spasms. And it wasn't a recipe for playoff success. I think their current style of offense can be, but who facilitates for whom still has to be addressed and answered consistently.

The defense...decidedly average without Kiah. Rebounding the same. Hopefully increased minutes and health will punctuate her to spark our D. She had 3 blocks and numerous shot alterations last night. She's very fit. I'm optimistic she will help our defense and rebounding improve. She can make up somewhat for the fact that Hartley and Coleman are turnstiles. Young destroyed Coleman offensively and Hartley has been subpar on D much of the year. I thought she was better last year on D.

I do not have the same confidence in our ability to facilitate consistent offense. Maybe Piph will help but when is she playing, at what position and with whom? Who's our primary perimeter scorer? Now that Sugar is back Nurse barely shoots the damn ball. It should be more balanced. I'm ready for Sugar to be out (traded) at this point. I'm tired of seeing her chuck up bad shots at a high rate.



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Fighting Artichoke



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PostPosted: 06/14/18 10:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

As far as guards go, NY has too many 2/3's and no true PG. You had one in training camp, but cut her, and she's playing pretty well for LV. Presently, she's 6th in the league in assists/game despite averaging 24 minutes/game and only starting 6 of the 10 games this season (coming off the bench in the other 4). At least Bill gave her a chance.


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PostPosted: 06/14/18 10:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I just love it when NY fans get into some analysis here.



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J-Spoon



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PostPosted: 06/14/18 11:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Fighting Artichoke wrote:
As far as guards go, NY has too many 2/3's and no true PG. You had one in training camp, but cut her, and she's playing pretty well for LV. Presently, she's 6th in the league in assists/game despite averaging 24 minutes/game and only starting 6 of the 10 games this season (coming off the bench in the other 4). At least Bill gave her a chance.


I agree with this completely.

The other problem (though I guess if handle correctly could be a boon) is that based on one factor or another when healthy and in their current form (not what they were two years ago) we have no clear top dog or even top tier on the perimeter.

In Washington you know Toliver is getting 30 minutes, LV McBride and Young, Chi Sloot, Quigley, Deshields, LA Gray, Sims, Beard (and they are so good players like Pondecter, Williams and Carson know they're only getting 10 to 16 minutes off the bench) PX DT and Bonner, Minn (well Minny is working with a similar situation But) Whalen, Augustus, Dallas Diggins and the sophomores, Seattle Bird and Loyd, Atl McCoughtry and Hayes, Conn J. Thomas and C. Williams with Bentley to give instant offense off the bench and Strick to shoot the lights out, Even in Indy we already know they will live and die with the Mitchell's and Wheeler and Johnson will be the veteran stability.

IN NY who should be your 30 minute a night lead guard? or go to perimeter performer?
Hartley, Boyd, Rodgers, Prince, Nurse, Zellous or Coleman?
A couple years ago that might have been Prince and Rodgers but now it is anyone and thus it is no one.


root_thing



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PostPosted: 06/15/18 12:22 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Fighting Artichoke wrote:
As far as guards go, NY has too many 2/3's and no true PG. You had one in training camp, but cut her, and she's playing pretty well for LV. Presently, she's 6th in the league in assists/game despite averaging 24 minutes/game and only starting 6 of the 10 games this season (coming off the bench in the other 4). At least Bill gave her a chance.


Yeah, I've been warning about the excess of wings for three seasons now. However, to be fair, just two games ago it was Hartley who was sixth in the league in assists at 4.8 with a sparkling 3.0 ATO. This early in the season, we still have small sample sizes so averages change quickly. Also, it was Laimbeer who first cut Allen last season. What got her a second chance was Prince leaving midseason to play with Russia.



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PostPosted: 06/15/18 12:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Libs are sixth in the league in points per possession. With a 102.9 defensive points per possession and only a .501 rebounding percentage. That’s including the abysmal Wednesday game which undoubtedly took the offensive numbers down. Hopefully as Stokes, Boyd and Piph play more and as Coleman, Hartley and Vaughn play less, those defense and rebounding numbers should improve. Our points per possession are tied with LA. Our defense is nowhere close. If we get back to playing Liberty defense and having Liberty rebounding it’s not the ultimate panacea. But it would definitely be a step or two in the right direction.



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PostPosted: 06/15/18 12:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

And on Wednesday we barely scored with Stokes on the floor. However, Vegas was by my count 7-22 from the floor when Stokes was in. .318 from the field.



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PostPosted: 06/15/18 9:30 pm    ::: Coaching wasn't in Katie Smith's plan Reply Reply with quote

http://www.startribune.com/coaching-wasn-t-in-katie-smith-s-plan-but-the-former-lynx-standout-is-firmly-at-the-helm-for-the-liberty/485720301/

Quote:
Here is one thing Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve and Katie Smith agree on — completely, 100 percent: Neither one thought Smith would ever walk into Target Center as a head coach.

“I said more than once I didn’t want to coach,” Smith said.

Said Reeve: “She always said, ‘I am not going to coach.’ ”

But here we are.



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PostPosted: 06/17/18 8:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Liberty Try to Make Westchester Feel Like Home
Quote:
a more serious question emerged as Charles and Moore, both Olympic gold medalists and former league most valuable players, dueled inside the Westchester County Center in front of an announced crowd of 2,319.
What constitutes a proper environment for women’s basketball?
The Liberty are searching for that answer as they attempt to create a professional sports atmosphere in a facility that has a sliver of the resources and reputation of Madison Square Garden, their previous home.
“I can’t disrespect M.S.G. and say the County Center is close to it,” said Charles, the Liberty forward who grew up in Queens attending the team’s games at the Garden. “I’m not going to say that.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/17/sports/basketball/liberty-westchester-wnba.html



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PostPosted: 06/17/18 8:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Quote:
W.N.B.A. President Lisa Borders said the league had been pleased with the fan response to the Liberty’s move.

“This move to a smaller venue has created an intimate and exciting environment for the passionate fan base,” she said. “Madison Square Garden, one of the world’s most coveted — and arguably most expensive — venues at which to hold games and events, was no longer an ideal location to play a full season of Liberty games given the economics.”


Such BS by Borders.



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PostPosted: 06/17/18 8:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

toad455 wrote:
Quote:
W.N.B.A. President Lisa Borders said the league had been pleased with the fan response to the Liberty’s move.

“This move to a smaller venue has created an intimate and exciting environment for the passionate fan base,” she said. “Madison Square Garden, one of the world’s most coveted — and arguably most expensive — venues at which to hold games and events, was no longer an ideal location to play a full season of Liberty games given the economics.”

Such BS by Borders.

I sure hope it is BS, because I would be appalled if they really are pleased.



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PostPosted: 06/17/18 9:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Also sad to hear the locker rooms are FOUR(4) flights up!!! And that the backstage accommodations are "high school level quality". So yeah, if the Liberty are to be here long term, which I hope they're not, upgrades need to be made.



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PostPosted: 06/17/18 9:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The only positive spin I can put on it is,

If we get new ownership, willing to put up some money, but Barclay Center is still considered too expensive maybe the actually in the city college venues that we wrote off as too small, are no longer too small. And I would be willing to bet that they have better facilities than the WCC.

(Ironically I was walking around the city after work today and walked past Fordham and thought, yeah I really wish the Liberty were playing there. I also past Colombia).

for people in the know what are the capacities of

Fordham
Colombia
NYU
Rutgers
ST. John's
LIU Brooklyn
Hunter


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PostPosted: 06/17/18 9:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Rose Hill Gymnasium at Fordham only seats 3,200 and is VERY OLD. Levien Gym at Columbia only holds 2,500 but was recently upgraded in 2002.



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PostPosted: 06/17/18 9:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

toad455 wrote:
Levien Gym at Columbia only holds 2,500

*looks on Google maps* - ok, that could work.
*looks at photos* - yikes. small. but wait ... what is this strange seating arrangement? It appears that ... you can see the court from all the seats? Surprised
Looks amateur, yet still better than WCC, and at least located where the small amount of seats it has would be occupied.



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PostPosted: 06/17/18 9:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
toad455 wrote:
Levien Gym at Columbia only holds 2,500

*looks on Google maps* - ok, that could work.
*looks at photos* - yikes. small. but wait ... what is this strange seating arrangement? It appears that ... you can see the court from all the seats? Surprised
Looks amateur, yet still better than WCC, and at least located where the small amount of seats it has would be occupied.


It's also almost entirely bleacher seating.




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PostPosted: 06/17/18 11:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I've seen a lot of games at Columbia. It is ridiculous and shameful that we have to have a conversation about a professional basketball team making Levien Gymasium its home. But no more ridiculous and shameful than playing in White Plains to a tiny crowd.

As toad has said, the statement by Lisa Borders is utter bs.



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