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Dream @ Aces - 6/08/18
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Who will win this game?
Dream
38%
 38%  [ 5 ]
Aces
61%
 61%  [ 8 ]
Total Votes : 13

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Randy



Joined: 08 Oct 2011
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PostPosted: 06/08/18 5:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think Collen believes the starting PG has to have a 3 point shot and Montgomery's is (far) better than Clarendon. So as long as she holds that view, Montgomery is that starter even if Clarendon is better at every other facet of the game. To be fair 4-3 is about where this team should be. So far we beat 2 teams should should beat (Sky and Aces) and beat a couple we probably shouldn't have beat (MN and CT.) We lost to Wings twice and the Mercury - two teams I expected us to lose to. So I'm willing to go with the coach.....for now.

If this persists though - we should look into trading Clarendon and maybe Sykes as neither seems to be a vital part of the new regime.


Silky Johnson



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PostPosted: 06/08/18 6:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
I think Collen believes the starting PG has to have a 3 point shot and Montgomery's is (far) better than Clarendon. So as long as she holds that view, Montgomery is that starter even if Clarendon is better at every other facet of the game. To be fair 4-3 is about where this team should be. So far we beat 2 teams should should beat (Sky and Aces) and beat a couple we probably shouldn't have beat (MN and CT.) We lost to Wings twice and the Mercury - two teams I expected us to lose to. So I'm willing to go with the coach.....for now.


I am far from convinced that you guys "shouldn't" have been able to beat Connecticut. I mean, the Sun are a better team, I guess, but they aren't better in a way that enables them to exploit Atlanta's weaknesses. Atlanta's margin for error against a team like Connecticut is much wider than it is against, say, the Sparks.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 06/08/18 6:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I just think the Sun have Jones. Normally Williams is over matched against her. Add Chiney to the mix and we should be at an even bigger disadvantage. I would say we are stronger at the 2 and 3, but they have the advantage at 1,4 and 5. I think they may have hurt themselves though by going with Chiney over Jones and then going with the big lineup. Plus - we got Dantas game of the year (so far at least) - may not happen very often.


Silky Johnson



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PostPosted: 06/08/18 7:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Eh. Jonquel Jones is better than Elizabeth Williams, but 'over matched' is a little hyperbolic. Atlanta also doesn't rely on their posts for offensive production in the same way that Connecticut does, so it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.

There's also the problem that Connecticut has an odd situation where playing their three best players (Ogwumike, A. Thomas, Jones) at the same time diminishes their ability to hurt Atlanta where they're weakest defensively (on the perimeter), but playing their best lineup (with either Ogwumike or Jones on the bench, and Thomas at PF) diminishes their ability to take away what Atlanta is best at, offensively (penetration).



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PostPosted: 06/08/18 7:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

That's a reasonable analysis, but Jones did have some big games against the Dream last year (like avg 16/14). This year, she just seems off, so that may be a problem for the Sun and due to the crowding issue.


Silky Johnson



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PostPosted: 06/08/18 8:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
That's a reasonable analysis, but Jones did have some big games against the Dream last year (like avg 16/14).


She did but, again, Connecticut relies on their posts for offense much moreso than the Atlanta does, so Jones outscoring Elizabeth Williams doesn't hurt the Dream nearly as much as, say, Courtney Williams outscoring Tiffany Hayes would.

Also, having McCoughtry back widens Atlanta's margin for error against Connecticut because, even when she's not scoring well, she's getting Breland wide-open layups, or drawing help defense away from Montgomery, to get her a wide-open look at a three, or taking the other team's best wing defender off Tiffany Hayes. Whereas having Ogwumike back doesn't really make Jones or Thomas' jobs any easier. I mean, they're 6-1 because they're talented, and they're well coached, but having two of your three best players play the same position is probably, eventually, going to become a problem.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 06/08/18 8:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

On that we both agree.


canadaball



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PostPosted: 06/08/18 10:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

"I mean, they're 6-1 because they're talented, and they're well coached, but having two of your three best players play the same position is probably, eventually, going to become a problem."

Have you actually analyzed Ct's first 7 games? In the opener, they got to play Las Vegas w/o McBride (Shoni Schimmel saw minutes); then LA w/o Parker and Lavender; home game with hapless Indiana; then Chicago w/o Quigley and Dolson; on to Washington w/o DelaD and Cloud. Only in the last 2 games did they meet fairly healthy mid level teams (tho NY was minus Prince). It is not unfair to value the Sun's talents using the loss to Atlanta, and very fortunate win over NY as a better barometer than those first five victories.


Shades



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PostPosted: 06/08/18 11:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Sounds remarkably similar to analysis found here.
http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?t=94509&start=6



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Silky Johnson



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PostPosted: 06/08/18 11:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

canadaball wrote:
"I mean, they're 6-1 because they're talented, and they're well coached, but having two of your three best players play the same position is probably, eventually, going to become a problem."

Have you actually analyzed Ct's first 7 games? In the opener, they got to play Las Vegas w/o McBride (Shoni Schimmel saw minutes); then LA w/o Parker and Lavender; home game with hapless Indiana; then Chicago w/o Quigley and Dolson; on to Washington w/o DelaD and Cloud. Only in the last 2 games did they meet fairly healthy mid level teams (tho NY was minus Prince). It is not unfair to value the Sun's talents using the loss to Atlanta, and very fortunate win over NY as a better barometer than those first five victories.


I suppose that you could, if you were so inclined. I feel comfortable evaluating their talent just as I did. The only team that they beat, whom I believe that they would have lost to at full strength was Los Angeles. Now, if Washington had been at full strength and at full rest, they might have beaten Connecticut, but I've never thought that highly of Thibault's coaching, and chances are that Delle Donne would have gone for thirty, and the Mystics would have lost by five.

I will stipulate that they've benefited from a soft early schedule, though: Las Vegas, Indiana and Chicago, I think they would have beaten regardless of whom was available. New York was a slight surprise, I guess, but only in that they were on the road; that was hardly an upset.

I reckon that we'll have a better idea of whom the 'real' Sun are after this road trip. IIRC, Atlanta got off to a fast start last year, and some people even had the audacity to imply that they might be better without McCoughtry... then they had a five-game road trip that re-introduced them to reality. We'll see what 'reality' looks like for the Sun at the end of the month.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 06/09/18 3:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Sun just beat the team that used to be the Minnesota Lynx, so maybe the Sun are sort of real. But then again, so have some other teams including the Dream.


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