RebKell's Junkie Boards

[cthskzfn]

[cthskzfn]

Sea -4

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

[calbearman76]

May 30

Phoenix 5 Washington 164.5

Washington played a solid game last night despite being without EDD and Natasha Cloud, but fell to Seattle for their first loss of the season. Now they have to travel 1500 miles and play again the next day. I like Phoenix.

Last night was tough. Dallas led by 14 with a minute to go in the third period and then proceeded to fall apart, allowing 40 points in the final 11 minutes. In the end a few questionable calls (Diggins clean steal on Charles that was called a foul stands out) and an absurd 3 point shot by Azura Stevens with 6 seconds to go nearly sealed the loss. I say nearly because after Zellous hit two FT to put the Liberty up 5 with 1.3 seconds to go, the TV decided to focus on Katie Smith and didn't even show the final shot by Diggins which would have covered the spread. I guess she missed from 30 feet because that is what the play-by-play said.

In Seattle Natasha Howard came into the game 12-12 from the line. But with less than a second to go she missed a FT to leave the game at 4, and so I just get a push. 0-1-1 on the day, and 13-6-1 for the season.

[cthskzfn]

[calbearman76]

May 31

Seattle 11 Las Vegas 169

This is an interesting line. Seattle was a 6 point favorite when they played on Sunday, so 11 at home makes sense, but the total is up 10 points. The Storm are among the highest scoring teams this season (174.8, 0.2 less than the Sun). The Aces have averaged 170 points, but their average in road games is only 155. My belief is that Las Vegas wanted to put on a show in their opening game, but generally they are no more than an average to below average scoring team, I like the under. As for the side Seattle has played 3 games at home this season and has failed to win by more than 4. I don't trust LV, but I can't lay 11based on what they have done so far.

Last night I was very surprised by the Mystics. This team is playing far better than I expected, so congratulations to them. The question now is whether their chemistry will continue once EDD gets back. That brings me to 13-7-1, quite a comedown from 11-2.

[calbearman76]

Seattle shoots 73% (17-23) from three over the first 35 minutes. Game goes over. 13-8-1

[calbearman76]

June 1

Minnesota 8 Phoenix 158
Connecticut 10 @Chicago 170
Washington 8.5 Las Vegas 168

New month, hopefully the start of a turnaround. Minnesota and Phoenix are the two most disappointing teams of the early season and I have resolved not to play either of them until I get a better sense of what they will become. Pass

Connecticut has played three home games but now they are going on the road. The line has moved from 7 to 10 which makes me look at the Sky. Courtney Vandersloot should be back so I will take the home team with the points.

Washington continues to impress with their reserves. This line actually moved from 12 and a total of 165.5. This is the Mystics third game in 4 days. Usually that would make me lean to the over, but I like this game under for a few reasons. I lost betting LV under against Seattle when the Storm hit 17 threes, but I still see the Aces as an average scoring team. When these teams played in DC the score was 75-70, and the line was only 155. 168 just seems too high. I lean toward the Aces, and would have taken them at the opening line, but with the adjustment I'll pass on the side.

[canadaball]

[calbearman76]

Actually I was aware of Dolson's questionable status and that didn't concern me. Missing Quigley is a bit more of a concern, but midway through the 3rd it is still a 12 point game. I actually think Quigley's absence is more of an effect on the total and would have made me make a small play on the under. Hopefully the Sky will play a strong final 5 minutes and cover.

[calbearman76]

June 2

New York 5.5 @Indiana 156
Dallas 3 Seattle 172

Indiana is a bad team, but Pokey has said she wants to play up tempo. The scores haven't reflected that yet, but I like the over. As for Dallas, despite their collapse vs New York in the 4th quarter I still believe they are at least as good, if not better that the Storm, so I will lay the 3.

[calbearman76]

Interesting ending to the Indiana - New York game. Game seems to end at 85-81, but the refs determine on replay that Kia Nurse was fouled with .3 to go. She makes both FTs and Liberty bettors win while Fever bettors lose. I had already won my bet on the over when the game went into overtime, so my luck was completely above board, but that is a bad beat if you had the home team.

[calbearman76]

If you wonder why 56% is a good percentage for picking games just look at tonight. In the first game the score was 71-71 in regulation. If the game ends there the winners are Indiana and the under. But the game continues and over bettors (like me) get the lucky break. But the ending gives a crazy win to Liberty.

In game 2 Dallas rolls out to a 51-25 lead with 2:30 left in the second quarter. Seattle outscores Dallas 37-13 over the next 12:30, so the game goes to the fourth 64-62 Wings, so effectively the line for the 4th quarter is Dallas 1 and a total of 44. The game goes over when Breanna Stewart hits a 3 with 18 seconds to go to make the game 88-86 Wings, but the fun is just starting. That basket put the Storm in position to cover, but the game went back to 4, then 2 and then 4 again before Loyd missed a desperation 3. Four lead changes (for betting purposes) in the final 20 seconds.

As a result I go a very lucky 2-0 and raise my record to 16-9-1.

Early lines for tomorrow have Atlanta as a 2 point favorite against Phoenix and LA 3 over the Lynx, with both totals at 158. No line yet for Sky-Aces, presumably because of the condition of Dolson and Quigley. Since these are overnight lines I won't make my choices yet, but LA -3 looks very tempting.

[calbearman76]

June 3

Connecticut 5.5 @Washington 172
Phoenix 1 @Atlanta 163.5
Los Angeles 4.5 Minnesota 157.5
Chicago 4.5 Las Vegas 164.5

Connecticut continues to play well, and even though they are on the road Washington is the team that has had the bad travel. The Mystics are playing their 5th game in 8 days. Las Vegas beat them Friday, and now they have to travel cross country to face the Sun. I'll take Connecticut.

Phoenix has certainly lived up to their name as they have been the most mercurial team this season. The early line of 158 on the total was tempting, but now I will pass.

Minnesota has looked like a middle of the road team, not the defending champions. LA beat them without Candace Parker in Minnesota. I'm willing to believe that the Lynx have grown old and don't have the drive from last year. If their is one team that get them to put forth a good effort it is the Sparks. I'd much prefer to lay 3, but even at 4.5 I'll still take them.

Chicago is a little better than LV, even without Dolson. But unless I find out that Quigley will be playing I can't quite get on the Sky. Pass

[calbearman76]

The Sparks and the Sun both came through with solid efforts so I went 2-0 today and raised my record to 18-9-1. Tomorrow there are no games. Looking forward Tuesday Phoenix will be playing an 8 am pacific game (that really messes with my sleep) so I will post sometime tomorrow evening. I expect the Mercury to be a small favorite with a total around 157.

[calbearman76]

June 5

Phoenix 1.5 @New York 158.5


This line is as I expected and I see no value in either the side or the total. With no singles matches in the French Open either, that means I can sleep in. In the other game the early line is Connecticut 6.5 @Atlanta 166. I will wait until the Vegas line comes out to make my pick.

[cthskzfn]

NYL +1.5

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

June 5

Connecticut 7.5 @Atlanta 165

Connecticut continues to roll. This is their third road game in 5 days (and Thursday will be their fourth in seven) and that can be a grind. Unlike the Mystics who succumbed to their schedule, the Sun has had very easy travel. Chicago to Washington to Atlanta (and then to New York) are all less than 2 hour flights. I don't generally like laying this high a line on the road. I also lean to the over (although I will not make it a play). If Williams is out I would like the over even more.

[cthskzfn]

Pho has fucked me twice in a row now, losing outright at Wash then covering at NY.

I sit at a dismal 2-4-1.

It's time CT lost, so I will lay the 7.5 to ensure that they, at the very least, don't cover.

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[cthskzfn]

[calbearman76]

June 7

Connecticut 5.5 @New York 164
Minnesota 4.5 @Washington 159
Los Angeles 7 Seattle 164.5

Connecticut finally lost due to a very poor shooting effort at Atlanta. My take is that they put up 82 shots. That is enough reason for me to go over the total tonight.


The Lynx are 2-5 so far this season, and 0-7 against the spread, but they continue to be favored. EDD is still out. My gut tells me that the Lynx will finally start playing better, but my wallet says stay away. Pass


Los Angeles looks like the best team in the league and Seattle may be the second best in the West. LA has won only 1 game by more than 8 this season so laying 7 is difficult, but I will do it tonight as I believe the Sparks want to assert dominance in the West.

[cthskzfn]

[calbearman76]

The Liberty and Sun played just the game I expected. The Sun put up 82 shots once again, hit 40%, and even though the game slowed to a crawl in the 4th quarter the game easily went over the total. On the other hand the Sparks didn't show up. The game is still going but I have already conceded defeat. That makes me 1-1 tonight and 19-11-1 for the year.

And while it isn't the WNBA, there was a massive exhale from all the sportsbooks in Nevada at just after 8 pm tonight. The Washington Capitals won the Stanley Cup over the Las Vegas Golden Knights. The Knights had started out at 500-1 to win the Cup and estimates were that sports books were on the hook for more than $5 million if they had won.

[cthskzfn]

Split again. The CT-NY track meet was a nice way to start the night.

SEA did their part in the nightcap but LA just plain sucked, and while the over had a chance after 3, the scoreless opening 2 mins of the 4th sealed my fate.

3-6-1

_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.

[calbearman76]

June 8

Atlanta 4.5 @Las Vegas 162.5
Dallas 6 @Indiana 164
Phoenix 9 Chicago 168.5

Quite frankly there is very little I like about these games today. Atlanta should be favored but I don't trust them. I can't lay 6 with Dallas, and even though I am really looking to bet Indiana over this doesn't look like a good spot. Phoenix has been playing very well, winning 3 in a row on the road. But I will jump in and take Chicago on the road. The Sky were a good road team last year and they are once again 2-0 against the spread on the road. Phoenix has struggled at home, losing their last two outright vs. Seattle and Washington.I'll take the Sky +9 as my only play.