RebKell's Junkie Boards

[toad455]

Thursday, May 17 is when rosters have to be down to 12. Like I said, Murphy, Faris and R. Allen should be clear cuts. Don't know where. R. Allen is showing up though.

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[root_thing]

Based on stuff coming out of the PR Department, fans are assuming that Coleman is a lock. If you look at minutes-adjusted stats, anything related to rates or efficiency, Rebecca Allen in a bad year was still better than Marissa Coleman -- significantly better on defense. So if everyone wants to run Bec out of town, how is Coleman the answer to our problems? Just saying, if you take emotion and friendship out of the equation, I don't see why Coleman is a lock. And I don't care about preseason stats that come from facing disorganized squads full of opponents who won't make rosters.

That said, below are my rankings based on the likelihood of players making the team. I'm throwing Coleman back into the mix, albeit with the highest probability. Four spots for nine players.

Coleman 80%
L. Allen 70%
Boyd 65%
Zahui B. 50%
Russell 50%
Gray 30%
R. Allen 20%
Faris 15%
Murphy 10%

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You can always do something else.

[toad455]

considering how well Coleman played in the preseason games and what Katie Smith has said about her, I'd say she's a lock.

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LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!

Twitter: @TBRBWAY

[Bob Lamm]

Preseason stats don't mean much to me. Nor does stuff from the PR department. But these two things do: (1) Katie Smith's words; and (2) the fact that the Liberty signed Coleman.

I have no interest in running Rebecca Allen or anyone else out of town. I'm not saying that Coleman is better than Allen or vice versa. In my view, though, the signing of Coleman in itself was a statement that the Liberty's decisionmakers aren't all that thrilled with Allen.

It could be that they just wanted to get a look at Coleman. It could be that Allen will make the team and Coleman won't. But my strong guess is that Coleman makes the team and Allen is waived.

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[NYL_WNBA_FAN]

Katie Smith's words sure sounded like Coleman will be on the team. I like some of what Coleman can provide and am not as enamored as Katie was in her words, though my feelings mean nothing.

Three things that Coleman would bring would be:

1) Physical presence on the wing
2) Veteran presence
3) History of strong playoff performance (.390 overall from the field isn't special but .371 from 3 is)

I do also understand why they are trying to "upgrade" the 3 position and add more versatility in small lineups. I thought Allen's defense was really good last year, but her offense is non-existent if you take away the 3-ball. While Coleman is basically just a shooter herself, she's harder to guard than Allen is. She has a higher release and will more willingly shoot without having to be stationary. Allen catches it and if there's a hand in her face she has no counter to it. Coleman will shoot when mildly contested or pump-fake and shoot.

Ultimately I am hoping Nurse gives us some solid 3-spot minutes and this convo becomes a non-entity. Z will still play most of the 3-spot minutes. Hopefully Nurse can handle what's left, because I think Nurse is going to be an impact player immediately, whether it's at the 2 or the 3.

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The poster formerly known as LibWNBAFan.

[root_thing]

I gave Coleman an 80% probability for a reason. I think she'll make the team. However, I would point out that Katie Smith has said positive things about everybody. She was very excited to see what Schimmel could do. She said Leslie Robinson was a really talented local player. The Coleman comments seem more significant partly because of volume: the day Marissa was signed, the Liberty website posted both a press release and a separate story. So there was simply more space for observations about Coleman -- all by nature complimentary -- which gave them the impression of being more emphatic.

I was a big Coleman fan when she was at Maryland. Marissa was a smart player whose head was always on a swivel looking for things she could do to help her team -- set a screen, jump a passing lane, etc. I still remember this one game against Rutgers when MD was on a break and Kia Vaughn was chasing the action. Coleman set a pick on Vaughn, who was rumbling toward the lane, and knocked Kia out of the game. You just don't see wing players getting in the way of burly posts like that. Tough, smart, and a proficient scorer. I thought Marissa was very worthy of the #2 pick in the 2009 Draft.

But let's be honest. The reality is Coleman has had a disappointing career. She squeezed out one good season -- arguably half a good season since Marissa faded in the second half of 2015. The noise coming out of Liberty camp makes adding Coleman sound analogous to them bringing in Swin Cash or DMJ at the end of their careers. Coleman is going to bring great leadership and championship experience. She's a versatile defender, she can post up, she can put it on the floor. she can shoot the 3-ball, she can do this, she can do that. Well, maybe on a sporadic basis at best. But her history isn't up to the hype.

And where will Coleman get minutes? Is she playing ahead of Zellous, Prince, Rodgers or Nurse? Is she really backing up at power forward? Bill Parcells used to refer to veteran players who clog up playing time as "progress stoppers". Maybe Coleman will provide a few needed positives, but she'll likely offset them with negatives. Marissa probably won't hurt the team short-term, but she's unlikely to move the needle either. At least with a younger player, you can hope for improvement. With a 31-year old, what you see is what you get. In this case, what we've seen the last two years hasn't been pretty.

What will probably get Coleman on the team is her previous relationship with Smith and Zellous. The preseason performances serve as added justification. Still, I don't think this move makes sense. I'm hoping management has enough objectivity to step back and look at the big picture. That's why I'm not making Coleman a lock. It's probably wishful thinking: I spent decades in the corporate world so I know how the buddy system works. Still, I'm always hopeful that someone surprises me.

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You can always do something else.

[NYL_WNBA_FAN]

I'm with you on the "it generally doesn't make sense" front. It gives the team a little added versatility in certain matchup situations and that's about it. But it just seemed like Smith's comments were more than the "she looks good" variety. She described specific ways they intend to use her this year, which would be weird if it's a player they didn't intend to keep.

For my money I'd use Nurse to back up Z at the 3 spot, cut Coleman and keep 5 posts. Especially since one of them won't be here in time for the start of the season. Not to mention Zahui is on the last year of her rookie deal. I think you have a lot more to gain giving her one more season to see what she has to offer as a young player than you do to add an older player potentially on the downside of her career. Coleman also has followed up some terrible shooting seasons with some better ones, so that's another question mark.

If Piph is out and Coleman does stay, I could see the usefulness in the sense that she's good injury insurance because she gives some wing versatility. If Piph has a long-term injury the plan might also be to cut either Coleman or Zahui but bring either back when eligible in the third game of the season.

What's frustrating is how murky the injury situation is leads to not knowing how the dominoes may fall. In turn I may be articulating things that have no chance of happening. Guess we will know between 5/17 and 5/20 more about Piph's status.

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The poster formerly known as LibWNBAFan.

[J-Spoon]

I was less than excited when we signed Coleman, but was very happy that she showed well in the preseason games. I think she could have an uptick due to a change of scenery and the way she fits next to a star in Charles and a crop of decent guards.

The reason I wasn't excited (outside of her being very meh since her good year in LA) was that NY signing a veteran who was the thing we've been missing (a Large SF) meant to me that unless she completely flamed out she was going to make the team, and that it was going to be at the expense of R. Allen or Zahui B (players I like and keep holding out hope for). I guess technically she is taking the Nayo role, but it feels like she is going to replace R. Allen, I can't see both Coleman and R. Allen making the team unless one of Boyd or Prince are out for the season, and we decide to go four posts and Coleman

Hartley/L. Allen/Boyd or Prince
Zellous/Rodgers
Coleman/Nurse/R. Allen
Charles/Stokes
Vaughn/Russell

If both Boyd and Prince are in, or we go 5th post with Zahui B or Gray I just don't see R. Allen surviving.

[Luuuc]

I've been rooting for Bec too of course, but she just hasn't taken that next step. It's not like she hasn't had opportunities either, so cutting her isn't something I could begrudge NY for. If there is no other good prospect at that position then Coleman is a safe bet. Not exactly inspiring, but I'm sure she'll have her moments.

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[NYL_WNBA_FAN]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Nurse in the starting lineup either opening night or soon after. Vaughn won't be with the team to start the season. I can't envision the Liberty leaving themselves one injury away from Russell playing 35 minutes a game by having only four posts, one of whom won't be here and another who hasn't played a regular season WNBA game.

Needless to say, the actual plan moving forward still confuses me as to the identity and structure of the team. Are we really going to play some small ball with Coleman playing 4 spot? Or is Piph out for a really long time and we're going to have both Coleman and Zahui?

Sigh. This is the part (lack of injury info) that I hate about the WNBA.

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The poster formerly known as LibWNBAFan.

[root_thing]

Just to be clear, I've recommended going after Currie for like three seasons in a row and I also suggested Karima Christmas a couple of years ago. I'm not against getting a veteran if she's actually an upgrade. And I don't expect an all-star either. Nor is this about Rebecca Allen. I just mentioned Bec because she seems to be synonymous with bad performance around here. But even in a bad year, she was statistically better than Coleman in most categories -- much better in some cases. But if we're bringing in a player to be an upgrade, I want to see tangible evidence that she actually is an upgrade. Is this person bringing skills we don't have or skills that we need more of? I'm not seeing that with Coleman. She's coming off two bad seasons, and 2017 was worse than 2016 so the trendline is down. People are saying stuff like, "Maybe Coleman is due for a good year," which is the same as saying maybe the Liberty will get lucky. Sorry, hoping for luck is no way to construct a team. With that rationale, you can sign anyone at any time. So, why not try your luck with someone who is younger and more athletic?

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[Lib Fan]

[toad455]

[toad455]

Liberty updated their schedule to have every game televised.

MAY 20 at Chicago 6:00 PM MSG+/Twitter
MAY 25 MINNESOTA 7:30 PM MSG+
MAY 29 DALLAS 7:00 PM MSG+
JUNE 2 at Indiana 7:00 PM MSG+
JUNE 5 PHOENIX (MSG) 11:00 AM MSG+/Twitter
JUNE 7 CONNECTICUT 7:00 PM MSG+
JUNE 10 INDIANA 3:00 PM MSG
JUNE 13 LAS VEGAS 7:00 PM MSG+
JUNE 16 at Minnesota 7:00 PM MSG+
JUNE 19 ATLANTA 7:00 PM MSG+
JUNE 22 at Las Vegas 7:00 PM ESPN2
JUNE 24 at Los Angeles 2:00 PM MSG+
JUNE 26 PHOENIX 7:00 PM MSG+
JUNE 28 at Washington 7:00 PM MSG+
JUNE 29 CHICAGO 7:30 PM MSG+
JULY 1 at Chicago 5:00 PM MSG+
JULY 3 SEATTLE 7:00 PM MSG+
JULY 5 at Washington 7:00 PM MSG+
JULY 8 DALLAS 3:00 PM MSG
JULY 11 at Connecticut 11:30 AM MSG+
JULY 15 CHICAGO 3:00 PM MSG
JULY 17 at Dallas 12:00 PM MSG+/Twitter
JULY 19 at Atlanta 7:00 PM MSG+
JULY 21 WASHINGTON 3:00 PM MSG
JULY 24 at Minnesota 7:00 PM ESPN2
AUGUST 1 at Connecticut 7:00 PM MSG+
AUGUST 4 INDIANA 3:00 PM MSG
AUGUST 6 SEATTLE (MSG) 11:00 AM MSG+
AUGUST 8 LOS ANGELES 7:00 PM MSG+
AUGUST 12 ATLANTA 2:30 PM MSG
AUGUST 14 at Los Angeles 7:00 PM MSG+
AUGUST 15 at Las Vegas 7:00 PM MSG+
AUGUST 17 at Seattle 7:00 PM MSG+
AUGUST 19 at Phoenix 3:00 PM MSG+

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LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!

Twitter: @TBRBWAY

[ClayK]

It would seem that signing Marissa Coleman is a win-now move, and in a lot of ways, that makes sense -- but of course for Coleman to help the Liberty win, she's going to have to play better than she has in the last two years. A lot better.

She's 31, which would mean that statistically she's four years past her peak season, and the numbers back up the feeling that she's on the decline rather than ready to bounce back, but maybe the change of scenery and Katie Smith will turn her career around.

It seems like a reasonable gamble at this point, as the Liberty need to make an impression in their new home, and have a good season. Hopefully, though, they'll fish or cut bait with Coleman quickly -- if indeed she does repeat her 2014 or 2015 season, then it's a great move. But if she sinks to the 2016 or 2017 levels, they should move on quickly and bring in a younger player who at least has a chance to be a positive contributor at some point.

My guess is that Coleman's done, but stranger things have happened. And she was the second overall pick in 2009 ...

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[toad455]

I feel Coleman can bring more to the team than R. Allen, Faris or Murphy. Coleman may be a one year gap filler. Maybe we get our SF in next year's draft(Samuelson? Laksa?).

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LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!

Twitter: @TBRBWAY

[WNBA 09]

[PUmatty]

[sigur3]

[toad455]

[root_thing]

[LibFan25]

[J-Spoon]

We end up in the middle of the pack this year and draft

Arike Ogunbowale

time is ticking on our current crop/log jam of SG/SFs we blow it up next year and rebuild around Hartley/Ogunbowale/Nurse/Charles/? Russell

and we pick up another falling star in the 2nd round in Anigwe

[root_thing]

If we're blowing up our perimeter, I can also see Joizy Girl Marina Mabrey being a good fit or maybe Cierra Lillard, the mid-major Arike with some Shoni passing thrown in. Interesting draft next year. There's a bunch of next tier 6-0/6-1 players who can shoot (Miranda Drummond, Naomi Davenport, Allazia Blockton) or at least score (Mariya Moore, Bridget Carleton, Kayla Goth). Also, there's 5-10 Taylor Emery. Whether they have pro-level athleticism or can do other things remains to be seen. I have a feel for Davenport and Moore, but the others require more viewing. Right now, the second round has a lot of potential sleepers with these players at the bottom and people like Kea, Thome, Sheppard and Australian Ezi Magbegor at the top. Laksa herself could be an early second round choice. If she ends up in NY, Kitija will have to get used to people calling her Latkes.

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[J-Spoon]

I'm assuming Schimmel was cut to make room for the arriving R. Allen so are these the 15 in camp?

Hartley/L. Allen/Boyd
Rodgers/Nurse/Murphy/Faris
Zellous/Coleman/R. Allen
Charles/Zahui B/Gray
Stokes/Russell

still waiting on Prince and Vaughn

with 5 cuts remaining

(unless somene sits out or gets suspended).

Does NY have anymore pre-season games or scrimmages or do R. Allen and Zahui B need to win their spots in a week of practices?