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UConn vs ND in OT, a comparison

 
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CBiebel



Joined: 23 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: 04/04/18 1:34 pm    ::: UConn vs ND in OT, a comparison Reply Reply with quote

I'm sure most here have seen the stats:
"UConn has lost their last 6 OT games."
"ND has won their last 7 OT games."

Could there be a reason? Actually, after doing some digging, there could a simple one: experience.

While McGraw has been a head coach a few years longer than Auriemma (although Auriemma has been at UConn a few years longer than McGraw has been at ND), that's not what I mean.

I mean experience in OT games. For McGraw I just used the ND data (didn't feel like trying to look up Lehigh stats, and it turns out that it wasn't really necessary. The ND data alone shows quite a bit).

Overall OT records:
Auriemma: 7-13
McGraw: 19-13

McGraw has almost as many OT wins as Auriemma has total OT games!

However, it's kind of interesting when you divide the stats up. For UConn there's a clear delineation around one year: 1995 (Gee, wonder what happened in that year?) Strangely the OT record took a turn for the worse after that year:

Before 1995: 6-5
After 1995: 1-8

The locations kind of changed, too. In both sets UConn had one home game (their lone win after 1995, against a 21-11 USF team in 2004-05). After 1995 the games were at ND twice, in the NCAAs five times, and once in a neutral Tournament site). Before 1995, one was BET, two were neutral tournaments, one was home, and the rest were road games.

ND's OT data actually divides better into thirds: Before 2001, from 2001 to 2010, and since 2010.

Before 2001: 7-5
2001-2010: 5-8
2010: 7-0

For ND, the locations are fairly evenly split between home, road, and neutral sites, even in each of the different groups. It kind of looks like after 2001, when McGraw was trying to figure out how to get ND back to the NC and was trying various things (including defense first teams that resulted in a lot of 50 or so points per team games, different offensive sets, etc.), that she struggled with the OT, but it became a trial by fire so that when she finally did attain the elite status, she knew how to handle it. Just my opinion, but that's kind of like what that data looks like to me.

(Had to edit for some stupid typos)




Last edited by CBiebel on 04/04/18 1:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
pilight



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PostPosted: 04/04/18 1:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nine games spread over 23 seasons is the epitome of a too small sample size



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tfan



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PostPosted: 04/04/18 2:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think the better thing to compare is "close games coached" (close game being one decided by one or two possessions). I remember in 2002 the closest game UConn had was a 9 point win. They won the NCAA final by 12 points. But probably more important than the coach, the players aren't used to playing in close games either. I think that article said their average margin of victory was 37.x points a game this year. I don't think they ever average lower than a 30 point differential. That type of slaughter doesn't prepare you for playing in overtime.




Last edited by tfan on 04/04/18 2:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
tfan



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PostPosted: 04/04/18 2:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

*duplicate*


CBiebel



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PostPosted: 04/04/18 2:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
I think the better thing to compare is "close games coached" (close game being one decided by one or two possessions). I remember in 2002 the closest game UConn had was a 9 point win. They won the NCAA final by 12 points. But probably more important than the coach, the players aren't used to playing in close games either. I think that article said their average margin of victory was 37.x points a game this year. I don't think they ever average lower than a 30 point differential. That type of slaughter doesn't prepare you for playing in overtime.


I remember there was a stat a few year ago where UConn had lost 8-10 close games (single digits or OT) in a row or something like that. Meanwhile, ND had gone on a streak of over 20 close wins. I think the loss to Miami stopped that one.


CBiebel



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PostPosted: 04/04/18 2:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Nine games spread over 23 seasons is the epitome of a too small sample size


Well, FWIW, they are clumped together. Five are in the last 8 seasons.


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: 04/04/18 3:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

In her 2005-06 championship season Brenda Frese had this mantra: "Overtime is our time."

What should Geno's mantra be?
FrozenLVFan



Joined: 08 Jul 2014
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PostPosted: 04/04/18 6:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
What should Geno's mantra be?


A curse on the guy that relegated us to the AAC?


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