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Throwback Monday - Fun with RPI - In and Out

 
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beknighted



Joined: 11 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: 03/12/18 3:58 pm    ::: Throwback Monday - Fun with RPI - In and Out Reply Reply with quote

I know I've been away for a while (it was me, not you), but I think it's time to come back, and I might as well do it with my annual effort to pick the teams that are in the tournament, the ones that could make and the ones that should be planning for the WNIT. This is based on the NCAA's official RPI and data at WarrenNolan.com. (WarrenNolan was wonky this morning, so apologies if something isn't right because it's changed since I looked at it.) Everything except the list of teams with automatic bids is as of Sunday morning.

Here are the premises of the analysis:

1. No team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since at least 2000 years, and only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament as an at large since 2003. The lowest RPI to get an at large in 2017 was 71, so that was one of the years.

2. In the last 17 years, only one team (a) from a major conference or the A-10 and (b) with a winning conference record has missed the tournament with an RPI of 35 or better. (It's actually 1 team with an RPI of 35 or better and 2 teams with RPIs of 37 or better.) Last year the first major/A-10 team to miss was Michigan.)

3. RPI is not the only thing that matters, but it does tend to be predictive. This is because RPI incorporates a lot of the things that matter to the committee. It's not a perfect match, but it's generally a good way of thinking about the odds and helps separate the teams that you should worry about from the teams that need a closer look.

And off we go:

Like last year, there will be 32 automatic bids and 32 at large bids.
These are the schools that have won automatic bids, by conference:

America East: Maine
AAC: Connecticut
ACC: Louisville
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic 10: George Washington
Big East: DePaul
Big Sky: Northern Colorado
Big South: Liberty
Big Ten: Ohio State
Big 12: Baylor
Big West: Cal State Northridge
Colonial: Elon
C-USA: Western Kentucky
Horizon: Wisconsin Green Bay
Ivy: Princeton
MEAC: North Carolina A&T
Metro Atlantic: Quinnipiac
Mid-American: Central Michigan
Missouri Valley: Drake
Mountain West: Boise State
Northeast: St. Francis (PA)
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Pac-12: Oregon
Patriot: American
SEC: South Carolina
Southern: Mercer
Southland: Nicholls State
Summit: South Dakota State
Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock
SWAC: Grambling State
WAC: Seattle
WCC: Gonzaga

That's 32, leaving 32 at large bids to fill.


On their way in

For the purpose of this analysis, I don't treat the AAC and Big East as majors, although I'm beginning to think about it. Therefore, as of right now, the following teams meet the top 35/winning conference record/major conference or A-10 standard:

ACC: Duke, Florida State, NC State, Notre Dame, Virginia
A-10: none (Dayton is at 36)
Big 12: Oklahoma, Texas
Big Ten: Maryland, Iowa
Pac-12: Stanford, UCLA
SEC: Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Usually I explain why teams with top 35 RPIs don't get into this group, but this year there's nobody who didn't have a winning conference record. Over the last ten years, something like 230 teams have been on this list, and exactly one has not made the tournament.

There are 17 teams in this group. That leaves 15 slots available for other teams.


For Your Consideration

These are the teams with RPIs of 75 or better that aren't getting automatic bids (at least so far) and that aren't on the majors/A-10 list above. All of them have winning records (which is required for an at large bid), so they all get considered.

14. South Florida
22. Buffalo
25. Marquette
30. Villanova
36. Dayton
38. Syracuse
39. Michigan
40. Rutgers
41. Minnesota
42. Oregon St.
43. California
44. Ball St.
45. UCF
48. Creighton
50. Drexel
51. Southern California
52. Miami (FL)
54. Indiana
55. Harvard
56. Arizona St.
57. Pennsylvania
59. Oklahoma St.
60. South Dakota
61. Nebraska
62. Purdue
64. West Virginia
64. Michigan St.
65. Virginia Tech
67. Georgia Tech
68. James Madison
69. TCU
71. Navy
72. UAB
73. UC Davis
74. Duquesne
75. St. John's (NY)

That's 37 teams for 15 slots. As I have in the past, I'm eliminating all non-major teams with RPIs worse than 65, since only one such team has gotten an at large bid since 2000, and I'm eliminating Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia because I'm not aware of a team with an RPI worse than 60 and a losing conference record getting an at large bid. That cuts the list down to 26.

The following teams, listed here in RPI order, remain:

14. South Florida
22. Buffalo
25. Marquette
30. Villanova
36. Dayton
38. Syracuse
39. Michigan
40. Rutgers
41. Minnesota
42. Oregon St.
43. California
44. Ball St.
45. UCF
48. Creighton
50. Drexel
51. Southern California
52. Miami (FL)
54. Indiana
55. Harvard
56. Arizona St.
57. Pennsylvania
59. Oklahoma St.
60. South Dakota
61. Nebraska
62. Purdue
69. TCU


'm going to divide the remaining teams into three groups - teams that ought to be in, teams with a decent shot and teams that are hoping for something good to happen.


Practicing Their Dance Steps

There are 4 teams with RPIs better than 35 - South Florida, Buffalo, Marquette, and Villanova. South Florida has 6 top 50 wins, and 3 more RPI top 100 wins. Buffalo is 11-3 against RPI top 100 teams, Marquette has a losing record against the RPI top 100, but it's 8-9, and includes 2 wins against Villanova and one against DePaul. Villanova is 9-7 against RPI top 100 teams, including wins over Duke, Princeton, and DePaul, but the loss to Georgetown in the BET is kind of ugly. All of them but Buffalo would be in if I were applying my top 35/winning conference record standard to the AAC and Big East. I'm putting them all into the tournament. That leaves 11 spots.

That takes us to the teams from RPI 36 to 51. The majors in this group are Syracuse, Michigan, Rutgers, Minnesota, Oregon State, Cal, and USC. All of them except Rutgers and USC had winning conference records. Rutgers had a losing conference record, so I'm dropping the Scarlet Knights to the next group. USC was .500 in the P12, but has an atrocious 3-11 record against RPI top 100 teams. The Trojans drop down, too. The rest I think are in.

These are the non-majors in this group:

36. Dayton - 1-3 v. RPI top 50, but 8-5 v. RPI top 100

44. Ball St. - also 1-3 v. RPI top 50, and 6-5 v. RPI top 100

45. UCF - 0-7 v. RPI top 50, and only 3-8 v. RPI top 100

48. Creighton - lots of games v. RPI top 100 teams, but 8-10 in those games

50. Drexel - 1-3 v. RPI top 50, 3-7 v. RPI top 100

Overall, Dayton looks good, and the rest look iffy.

RPI 51 is a kind of cutoff, in that teams below it have a much worse chance of getting in, so I'm putting everybody below 51 in the next group.

So, in this group, I have

14. South Florida
22. Buffalo
25. Marquette
30. Villanova
36. Dayton
38. Syracuse
39. Michigan
41. Minnesota
42. Oregon St.
43. California


That leaves 5 spots for everybody else on the list.


Taking Dance Lessons

There are 5 slots for the remaining teams. The next teams all have a decent chance of getting at large bids.

I'm going to start with the major conference teams


40. Rutgers - the losing conference record is the issue, but there are 5 wins over RPI top 50 teams, including a bunch that are going to the tournament (NC State, Virginia, Princeton, Iowa, and a 12-10 record over RPI top 100 teams. The other issue is the underperformance in the last part of the season, but the B1G tourney win probably helped.

51. Southern California - The Trojans just couldn't beat anybody good - that 3-11 record v. RPI top 100 really stands out. If you're doing a compare and contrast with Rutgers, that's trouble.

52. Miami (FL) - 4 RPI top 50 wins and 9-8 v. RPI top 100, plus 10-6 in the ACC probably is enough.

54. Indiana - winning record in the B1G, but a losing record v. RPI top 100 teams.

56. Arizona St. - 10-8 in the P12, but 5-11 v. RPI top 100

59. Oklahoma St. - 9-8 v. RPI top 100, 11-7 in the B12

61. Nebraska - low RPI, low SOS, 9-8 v. RPI top 100, 11-5 record in B1G.

62. Purdue - 18 wins, but a tough SOS, and a winning record in the B1G. 9-11 v. RPI top 100. If you're picking between Nebraska and Purdue, you probably go with Nebraska.

69. TCU - 9-9 in conference, low RPI and SOS. It seems unlikely.


I'm going to take Rutgers, Miami, and Oklahoma State from this list and drop the rest down to the next group.


44. Ball St. - 6-5 v. RPI top 100, but a really hideous SOS, best win against Western Kentucky, and a first round loss in the MAC tourney.

45. UCF - 0-7 v. RPI top 50 and 3-8 v. RPI top 100, plus two RPI 100+ losses.

48. Creighton - 8-10 v. RPI top 100, 2 RPI 100+ losses, best win v. Marquette

50. Drexel - 3-7 v. RPI top 100, and an SOS of 125, best win v. Elon

55. Harvard - 2-7 v. RPI top 100, 3 RPI 100+ losses

57. Pennsylvania - 3-5 v. RPI top 100, 1 RPI 100+ loss, 1 RPI 200+ loss, lousy SOS

60. South Dakota - 5-3 v. RPI top 100, but 3 RPI 100+ losses


Honestly, I don't like any team in this group. Maybe Ball State, but not enough to keep them in this category. So overall, that's three teams that stay here and the rest drop down.


This is the decent chance list:

40. Rutgers
52. Miami (FL)
59. Oklahoma State

I won't be surprised if all of these teams get bids, but it could be 2. That leaves two or three slots for the last group.


Sweating It Out

Except for 2010, teams on this list have had very little chance of getting in. There could be as many as three slots for this group, but there are 13 teams on the list.

44. Ball St.
45. UCF
48. Creighton
50. Drexel
51. Southern California
54. Indiana
55. Harvard
56. Arizona St.
57. Pennsylvania
60. South Dakota
61. Nebraska
62. Purdue
69. TCU

The teams that look best to me in this group are (in no particular order) Ball State, Nebraska, and Arizona State. I suppose I could see Creighton or South Dakota as a possibility, too. I'd be pretty stunned if either of the Ivy League teams or TCU made it.


SpaceJunkie



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Posts: 3507
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PostPosted: 03/12/18 4:07 pm    ::: Re: Throwback Monday - Fun with RPI - In and Out Reply Reply with quote

beknighted wrote:
1. No team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since at least 2000 years, and only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament as an at large since 2003. The lowest RPI to get an at large in 2017 was 71, so that was one of the years.


Me being a jerk again: Iowa St's RPI last year, at the time of selection, was 60, if that's the team you're referring to.


pilight



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Posts: 57471
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PostPosted: 03/12/18 4:10 pm    ::: Re: Throwback Monday - Fun with RPI - In and Out Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
beknighted wrote:
1. No team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since at least 2000 years, and only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament as an at large since 2003. The lowest RPI to get an at large in 2017 was 71, so that was one of the years.


Me being a jerk again: Iowa St's RPI last year, at the time of selection, was 60, if that's the team you're referring to.


No, Northern Iowa was #60, Iowa State was #71. Both got in as at-large teams.



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SpaceJunkie



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Posts: 3507
Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 03/12/18 5:21 pm    ::: Re: Throwback Monday - Fun with RPI - In and Out Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
beknighted wrote:
1. No team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since at least 2000 years, and only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament as an at large since 2003. The lowest RPI to get an at large in 2017 was 71, so that was one of the years.


Me being a jerk again: Iowa St's RPI last year, at the time of selection, was 60, if that's the team you're referring to.


No, Northern Iowa was #60, Iowa State was #71. Both got in as at-large teams.


Northern Iowa was 52. If you're looking at warrennolan.com, they update the RPIs, SOSs, etc throughout the postseason, so you can either look at "Week 19" on the "Rankings Per Week" per team, or just look at the Team Sheets/Nitty Gritty from the NCAA from selection time.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3050
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 03/12/18 5:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Arizona St is a dead lock. I guess it is all about how you parse the numbers. Arizona St is 2-8 against the top 25 and 3-3 vs teams 26-55. Compare this to Dayton who appears to be in according to the final 8 bubble teams. Dayton is 0-2 vs the top 25, 1-1 vs 26-55 and 7-2 vs 56-100.


readyAIMfire53



Joined: 20 Nov 2004
Posts: 5471
Location: Durham, NC


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PostPosted: 03/12/18 7:04 pm    ::: Re: Throwback Monday - Fun with RPI - In and Out Reply Reply with quote

beknighted wrote:
I know I've been away for a while (it was me, not you), but I think it's time to come back, and I might as well do it with my annual effort to pick the teams that are in the tournament, the ones that could make and the ones that should be planning for the WNIT. This is based on the NCAA's official RPI and data at WarrenNolan.com. (WarrenNolan was wonky this morning, so apologies if something isn't right because it's changed since I looked at it.) Everything except the list of teams with automatic bids is as of Sunday morning.

Here are the premises of the analysis:

1. No team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since at least 2000 years, and only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament as an at large since 2003. The lowest RPI to get an at large in 2017 was 71, so that was one of the years.

2. In the last 17 years, only one team (a) from a major conference or the A-10 and (b) with a winning conference record has missed the tournament with an RPI of 35 or better. (It's actually 1 team with an RPI of 35 or better and 2 teams with RPIs of 37 or better.) Last year the first major/A-10 team to miss was Michigan.)

3. RPI is not the only thing that matters, but it does tend to be predictive. This is because RPI incorporates a lot of the things that matter to the committee. It's not a perfect match, but it's generally a good way of thinking about the odds and helps separate the teams that you should worry about from the teams that need a closer look.

And off we go:

Like last year, there will be 32 automatic bids and 32 at large bids.
These are the schools that have won automatic bids, by conference:

America East: Maine
AAC: Connecticut
ACC: Louisville
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic 10: George Washington
Big East: DePaul
Big Sky: Northern Colorado
Big South: Liberty
Big Ten: Ohio State
Big 12: Baylor
Big West: Cal State Northridge
Colonial: Elon
C-USA: Western Kentucky
Horizon: Wisconsin Green Bay
Ivy: Princeton
MEAC: North Carolina A&T
Metro Atlantic: Quinnipiac
Mid-American: Central Michigan
Missouri Valley: Drake
Mountain West: Boise State
Northeast: St. Francis (PA)
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Pac-12: Oregon
Patriot: American
SEC: South Carolina
Southern: Mercer
Southland: Nicholls State
Summit: South Dakota State
Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock
SWAC: Grambling State
WAC: Seattle
WCC: Gonzaga

That's 32, leaving 32 at large bids to fill.


On their way in

For the purpose of this analysis, I don't treat the AAC and Big East as majors, although I'm beginning to think about it. Therefore, as of right now, the following teams meet the top 35/winning conference record/major conference or A-10 standard:

ACC: Duke, Florida State, NC State, Notre Dame, Virginia
A-10: none (Dayton is at 36)
Big 12: Oklahoma, Texas
Big Ten: Maryland, Iowa
Pac-12: Stanford, UCLA
SEC: Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Usually I explain why teams with top 35 RPIs don't get into this group, but this year there's nobody who didn't have a winning conference record. Over the last ten years, something like 230 teams have been on this list, and exactly one has not made the tournament.

There are 17 teams in this group. That leaves 15 slots available for other teams.


For Your Consideration

These are the teams with RPIs of 75 or better that aren't getting automatic bids (at least so far) and that aren't on the majors/A-10 list above. All of them have winning records (which is required for an at large bid), so they all get considered.

14. South Florida
22. Buffalo
25. Marquette
30. Villanova
36. Dayton
38. Syracuse
39. Michigan
40. Rutgers
41. Minnesota
42. Oregon St.
43. California
44. Ball St.
45. UCF
48. Creighton
50. Drexel
51. Southern California
52. Miami (FL)
54. Indiana
55. Harvard
56. Arizona St.
57. Pennsylvania
59. Oklahoma St.
60. South Dakota
61. Nebraska
62. Purdue
64. West Virginia
64. Michigan St.
65. Virginia Tech
67. Georgia Tech
68. James Madison
69. TCU
71. Navy
72. UAB
73. UC Davis
74. Duquesne
75. St. John's (NY)

That's 37 teams for 15 slots. As I have in the past, I'm eliminating all non-major teams with RPIs worse than 65, since only one such team has gotten an at large bid since 2000, and I'm eliminating Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia because I'm not aware of a team with an RPI worse than 60 and a losing conference record getting an at large bid. That cuts the list down to 26.

The following teams, listed here in RPI order, remain:

14. South Florida
22. Buffalo
25. Marquette
30. Villanova
36. Dayton
38. Syracuse
39. Michigan
40. Rutgers
41. Minnesota
42. Oregon St.
43. California
44. Ball St.
45. UCF
48. Creighton
50. Drexel
51. Southern California
52. Miami (FL)
54. Indiana
55. Harvard
56. Arizona St.
57. Pennsylvania
59. Oklahoma St.
60. South Dakota
61. Nebraska
62. Purdue
69. TCU


'm going to divide the remaining teams into three groups - teams that ought to be in, teams with a decent shot and teams that are hoping for something good to happen.


Practicing Their Dance Steps

There are 4 teams with RPIs better than 35 - South Florida, Buffalo, Marquette, and Villanova. South Florida has 6 top 50 wins, and 3 more RPI top 100 wins. Buffalo is 11-3 against RPI top 100 teams, Marquette has a losing record against the RPI top 100, but it's 8-9, and includes 2 wins against Villanova and one against DePaul. Villanova is 9-7 against RPI top 100 teams, including wins over Duke, Princeton, and DePaul, but the loss to Georgetown in the BET is kind of ugly. All of them but Buffalo would be in if I were applying my top 35/winning conference record standard to the AAC and Big East. I'm putting them all into the tournament. That leaves 11 spots.

That takes us to the teams from RPI 36 to 51. The majors in this group are Syracuse, Michigan, Rutgers, Minnesota, Oregon State, Cal, and USC. All of them except Rutgers and USC had winning conference records. Rutgers had a losing conference record, so I'm dropping the Scarlet Knights to the next group. USC was .500 in the P12, but has an atrocious 3-11 record against RPI top 100 teams. The Trojans drop down, too. The rest I think are in.

These are the non-majors in this group:

36. Dayton - 1-3 v. RPI top 50, but 8-5 v. RPI top 100

44. Ball St. - also 1-3 v. RPI top 50, and 6-5 v. RPI top 100

45. UCF - 0-7 v. RPI top 50, and only 3-8 v. RPI top 100

48. Creighton - lots of games v. RPI top 100 teams, but 8-10 in those games

50. Drexel - 1-3 v. RPI top 50, 3-7 v. RPI top 100

Overall, Dayton looks good, and the rest look iffy.

RPI 51 is a kind of cutoff, in that teams below it have a much worse chance of getting in, so I'm putting everybody below 51 in the next group.

So, in this group, I have

14. South Florida
22. Buffalo
25. Marquette
30. Villanova
36. Dayton
38. Syracuse
39. Michigan
41. Minnesota
42. Oregon St.
43. California


That leaves 5 spots for everybody else on the list.


Taking Dance Lessons

There are 5 slots for the remaining teams. The next teams all have a decent chance of getting at large bids.

I'm going to start with the major conference teams


40. Rutgers - the losing conference record is the issue, but there are 5 wins over RPI top 50 teams, including a bunch that are going to the tournament (NC State, Virginia, Princeton, Iowa, and a 12-10 record over RPI top 100 teams. The other issue is the underperformance in the last part of the season, but the B1G tourney win probably helped.

51. Southern California - The Trojans just couldn't beat anybody good - that 3-11 record v. RPI top 100 really stands out. If you're doing a compare and contrast with Rutgers, that's trouble.

52. Miami (FL) - 4 RPI top 50 wins and 9-8 v. RPI top 100, plus 10-6 in the ACC probably is enough.

54. Indiana - winning record in the B1G, but a losing record v. RPI top 100 teams.

56. Arizona St. - 10-8 in the P12, but 5-11 v. RPI top 100

59. Oklahoma St. - 9-8 v. RPI top 100, 11-7 in the B12

61. Nebraska - low RPI, low SOS, 9-8 v. RPI top 100, 11-5 record in B1G.

62. Purdue - 18 wins, but a tough SOS, and a winning record in the B1G. 9-11 v. RPI top 100. If you're picking between Nebraska and Purdue, you probably go with Nebraska.

69. TCU - 9-9 in conference, low RPI and SOS. It seems unlikely.


I'm going to take Rutgers, Miami, and Oklahoma State from this list and drop the rest down to the next group.


44. Ball St. - 6-5 v. RPI top 100, but a really hideous SOS, best win against Western Kentucky, and a first round loss in the MAC tourney.

45. UCF - 0-7 v. RPI top 50 and 3-8 v. RPI top 100, plus two RPI 100+ losses.

48. Creighton - 8-10 v. RPI top 100, 2 RPI 100+ losses, best win v. Marquette

50. Drexel - 3-7 v. RPI top 100, and an SOS of 125, best win v. Elon

55. Harvard - 2-7 v. RPI top 100, 3 RPI 100+ losses

57. Pennsylvania - 3-5 v. RPI top 100, 1 RPI 100+ loss, 1 RPI 200+ loss, lousy SOS

60. South Dakota - 5-3 v. RPI top 100, but 3 RPI 100+ losses


Honestly, I don't like any team in this group. Maybe Ball State, but not enough to keep them in this category. So overall, that's three teams that stay here and the rest drop down.


This is the decent chance list:

40. Rutgers
52. Miami (FL)
59. Oklahoma State

I won't be surprised if all of these teams get bids, but it could be 2. That leaves two or three slots for the last group.


Sweating It Out

Except for 2010, teams on this list have had very little chance of getting in. There could be as many as three slots for this group, but there are 13 teams on the list.

44. Ball St.
45. UCF
48. Creighton
50. Drexel
51. Southern California
54. Indiana
55. Harvard
56. Arizona St.
57. Pennsylvania
60. South Dakota
61. Nebraska
62. Purdue
69. TCU

The teams that look best to me in this group are (in no particular order) Ball State, Nebraska, and Arizona State. I suppose I could see Creighton or South Dakota as a possibility, too. I'd be pretty stunned if either of the Ivy League teams or TCU made it.


Beknighted: WELCOME BACK, old friend! Looking forward to your post during the FF. Always enlightening.



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sigur3



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PostPosted: 03/12/18 8:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Mascot bracket or riot!


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 3507
Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 03/12/18 8:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

sigur3 wrote:
Mascot bracket or riot!


I really want to know who will win the battle between the Buffalo Bulls and the South Florida Bulls!


Queenie



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Posts: 15767
Location: Queens


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PostPosted: 03/12/18 8:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
sigur3 wrote:
Mascot bracket or riot!


I really want to know who will win the battle between the Buffalo Bulls and the South Florida Bulls!


Both of them. After all, the Matadors are in a different bracket.



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beknighted



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PostPosted: 03/17/18 9:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
sigur3 wrote:
Mascot bracket or riot!


I really want to know who will win the battle between the Buffalo Bulls and the South Florida Bulls!


I am glad I could address this difficult issue.


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