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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 03/10/18 10:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Myrtle - Why did I think you wouldn't like my solution?


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/11/18 1:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Last night I listed my bracket. I will reseed the last 4 or 5 lines once all of the conference tournaments finish, but for now I will address why I put the last few teams in and why I left the last few teams out.

Why they are in:

USC - USC has only 1 top 50 RPI win which makes them questionable (and has Charlie Crème leave them out). But that win is over 5th seed Oregon St. They also have a win over 7th seed Arizona St (RPI 56) and bubble team Purdue (RPI 62). And every one of USC's 11 losses are to tournament teams, including 8 to top 4 seeds.

Rutgers - Rutgers barely salvaged their season with a win over Purdue in the Big 10 Tournament. If the Committee gave more deference to a teams play toward the end of the season (as I think they should) Rutgers would be out, but as it is their early season wins over North Carolina St and Virginia are just enough to make up for a 7-9 Big 10 record.

Creighton - This is my last team in. The Blue Jays have 4 wins over tournament teams (@Nebraska, @Marquette, Villanova, South Dakota St) and 6 of their losses are to top 25 teams. Losses to Washington and Butler make them a very tough call, but they get the final nod.

Why they are out -

Dayton - It is hard to say how good Dayton actually is, but even though Crème has them in I don't see it. Dayton played a decent non-conference schedule (52 per RPI) and went 7-4, beating Virginia and Harvard while losing to Green Bay, South Florida, Quinnipiac and Toledo. The Atlantic 10 was way down this season, with no teams other than Dayton in the top 70. A regular season ending loss to St Louis combined with a conference tournament loss to GW knocks them out.

Indiana - If I was building my tournament bracket the Hoosiers would be in. Over the last 6 weeks Indiana was 9-2 with the only losses to Iowa and Maryland and 4 wins over Tournament teams But I don't believe the Committee will see that as enough to overcome their early season losses to Chattanooga, Auburn, St Mary's and Penn St.

Oklahoma - Oklahoma is one of the top 40 teams in the country by nearly every measure (RPI 36, Sagarin 26, Massey 38) which should be good enough. But the Sooners are hurt because this year the RPI hates the Big 12, so Oklahoma St, West Virginia and TCU are all outside the top 50. That leaves them with only 1 top 50 win. Add in a 16-14 overall record, losses to both Florida and Little Rock, and I'm afraid they get left out.

Purdue - Purdue was 9-7 in the Big 10 and beat Central Michigan non-conference, but they also lost to Georgia Tech and Utah. I thought a win over Rutgers would get them into the tournament. They lost.

TCU - TCU may have been the ultimate jinx on the Big 12. They played a very weak non conference schedule (203) and lost to Yale which contributed to the Big 12's poor RPI. They beat Oklahoma twice and West Virginia once which were possibly the difference between those two teams making and missing the NCAA. And yet even with their win over Texas, their losses to Kansas and Iowa St are too much to overcome.

Virginia Tech - At first blush, Virginia Tech looked like a real possibility. 4 wins over the top 50 and only 3 losses to teams outside the top 50. But then I looked closer. The 4 wins were over Syracuse twice, Central Florida and Drexel. So it was only 2 wins over tournament quality teams. Once I made that adjustment the losses to Butler and Wake Forest as well as the 6-10 conference record made it easy to pass.

West Virginia - I could almost say, "see TCU." Non-conference SOS - 182. One big win over Texas A&M. In conference WVU was only 8-10, losing twice each to Baylor , Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. The win over Oklahoma St in the conference tournament gives the Mountaineers hope, but probably not enough.

If the bracket was set based on the Sagarin Ratings the Big 12 would get 5 teams. The Massey ratings would give them 6. The RPI would say 3, but Oklahoma would replace Oklahoma St. My guess is Baylor, Texas and OSU.


Matt5762



Joined: 27 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: 03/11/18 6:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Quote:
@ESPN_WomenHoop
The final eight teams under consideration for the last four spots in the women's NCAA tournament bracket:
Buffalo
Creighton
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Purdue
Rutgers
USC
West Virginia


I have 5 of these teams in the bracket. I'm kind of mind-boggled if they agree with Creme and put Dayton not only in but comfortably so (they're my 8th team out), but I can't imagine who else it would be.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3126
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 03/11/18 6:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Matt5762 wrote:
Quote:
@ESPN_WomenHoop
The final eight teams under consideration for the last four spots in the women's NCAA tournament bracket:
Buffalo
Creighton
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Purdue
Rutgers
USC
West Virginia


I have 5 of these teams in the bracket. I'm kind of mind-boggled if they agree with Creme and put Dayton not only in but comfortably so (they're my 8th team out), but I can't imagine who else it would be.


I'm in the same position as you. The only other team that I could even close to put in would be Indiana, but because of nonconference strength of schedule (something I generally give almost no weight), but that seems to go against other factors they seem to be considering.


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 3535
Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 03/11/18 6:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Matt5762 wrote:
Quote:
@ESPN_WomenHoop
The final eight teams under consideration for the last four spots in the women's NCAA tournament bracket:
Buffalo
Creighton
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Purdue
Rutgers
USC
West Virginia


I have 5 of these teams in the bracket. I'm kind of mind-boggled if they agree with Creme and put Dayton not only in but comfortably so (they're my 8th team out), but I can't imagine who else it would be.


How can Dayton be in (assuming they are in)? How can the committee agree with Creme on something I think makes no sense? IS THERE A CONSPIRACY GOING ON? LOL


Matt5762



Joined: 27 Feb 2005
Posts: 499



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PostPosted: 03/11/18 7:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:

How can Dayton be in (assuming they are in)? How can the committee agree with Creme on something I think makes no sense? IS THERE A CONSPIRACY GOING ON? LOL


Other Committee Members Include:
Ceal Barry, senior associate athletic director, University of Colorado, Boulder
Jill Bodensteiner, senior associate athletics director, University of Notre Dame
DeJuena Chizer, senior associate athletics director/SWA, University of Houston
Leslie Claybrook, assistant commissioner, Southeastern Conference
Tamica Smith Jones, director of athletics, University of California, Riverside
Jeff Konya, director of athletics, Oakland University
Teresa Phillips, director of athletics, Tennessee State University
Deborah Richardson, senior associate commissioner, Atlantic 10 Conference
Diane C. Turnham, senior associate athletics director, Middle Tennessee State University


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 3535
Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 03/11/18 7:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Matt5762 wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:

How can Dayton be in (assuming they are in)? How can the committee agree with Creme on something I think makes no sense? IS THERE A CONSPIRACY GOING ON? LOL


Other Committee Members Include:
Ceal Barry, senior associate athletic director, University of Colorado, Boulder
Jill Bodensteiner, senior associate athletics director, University of Notre Dame
DeJuena Chizer, senior associate athletics director/SWA, University of Houston
Leslie Claybrook, assistant commissioner, Southeastern Conference
Tamica Smith Jones, director of athletics, University of California, Riverside
Jeff Konya, director of athletics, Oakland University
Teresa Phillips, director of athletics, Tennessee State University
Deborah Richardson, senior associate commissioner, Atlantic 10 Conference
Diane C. Turnham, senior associate athletics director, Middle Tennessee State University


That makes sense, since I have no idea how, if Dayton is in, how they can be seeded higher than South Dakota St (similar resumes to me, but the Jackrabbits look better at pretty much everything).


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3126
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 03/17/18 11:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I did not previously review my predicted bracket to compare with the actual. In all I had 62 of the 64 teams, missing on USC and Rutgers who were two of my last 3 in (along with Creighton). The two teams I left out were Oklahoma and Dayton, who were among the 7 I listed as possible.

As for the seeds, I had all of the number 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds correct. I also had the next 8 teams correct but had Oregon St as a 5 and DePaul as a 6. After that my seeding diverged widely as I had Minnesota as a 7, Central Michigan as an 8, both 3 lines higher than they were placed by the Committee. Dayton's position as a 9 by the Committee while I had left them out is also essentially a 3 line difference.

Based on the results of the games, I am heartened that the two teams I had seeded higher both had upset wins and the team I thought should be left out lost by 19 points.

While I don't believe it is fair to view any single game as validation of the correctness of the selection process, I believe that at least the general view of conferences can be evaluated. The SEC had 7 teams given top 6 seeds, and yet 2 of their teams lost in the first round. Because of the way the RPI works, when several teams are highly ranked teams tend to pile up wins and losses against one another and that can give the impression that some mid range teams are better than they are. The losses by Missouri and LSU, coupled with the struggle by Georgia against Mercer, indicate that the SEC might not be as strong as believed after the first 2 or 3 teams.

The ACC could be looked at similarly. While their top 5 teams are solid, both Syracuse and Miami lost as 8 seeds. Virginia was able to win as a 10 seed over Cal, but Cal was without its best player and was still in the game until the final minute. On the other hand the Big East was 4-0, including a win by Creighton over Iowa. Creighton justified its position as one of the last teams in by controlling the close game throughout. Despite Iowa's loss the Big 10 also did well. Minnesota was one of the last 4 teams in but beat Green Bay as a 10 seed. Their only other loser was Nebraska as a 10 seed that lost by 11 to Arizona St. As for the Pac 12, they went 5-1, with their only loss being by the Cal team without Anigwe. I believe the showing of the league, particularly ASU's win, is an indication that the Committee could have gone 1 team deeper to take USC, who finished only a game behind ASU.

Lastly there are the two mid-majors that got an at-large bid. On the one hand there is the Mid American. This conference was far better than usual. Ball St made the headlines early but Central Michigan and Buffalo were the two best by far at the end of the season. The RPI ranked them both in the top 25 and the conference was 7th in the RPI with 3 teams in the top 50 and 6 teams in the top 100. And yet Buffalo had to limp into the tournament as an at large team and both teams were given 11 seeds. They showed on the court that they deserved better with two solid wins. On the other hand there was the Atlantic 10, traditionally a stronger conference but this year only rated 11 by the RPI. Dayton was the only top 50 team and the conference had only 4 teams in the top 100. And yet somehow Dayton was given a 9 seed when they lost in their conference tournament. Dayton lost by 19 and George Washington, one of those top 100 teams, lost by 42.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3126
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 03/17/18 11:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I left out the case of the Big 12. The Big 12 was ranked very low by the RPI in comparison to most other ratings systems. There are a few reasons for this including some very weak non conference scheduling by several teams, but it is also hurt by a bias of the RPI that hurts good conferences that play a full double round robin schedule. Under a reasonable system Oklahoma St and West Virginia would have been top 50 teams, and TCU may have been as well, and if they had been the records of the teams against top 50 opponents would have looked very different. Oklahoma St showed it was better than a 9 seed and Oklahoma, even in defeat, showed that they were good enough to be included (although I am not sure a team should be rewarded for a 16-14 season). Indeed having only 3 teams from the Big 12 would have been hard to swallow.


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