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The Gabby Delusion and Nurse Dilution

 
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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 01/17/18 9:29 pm    ::: The Gabby Delusion and Nurse Dilution Reply Reply with quote

The WNBA forum seems pretty settled that this year's senior class will be a very strong one, Gabby Williams will go in the first four, maybe even #1, and that Kia Nurse will be somewhere far behind in the draft order.

Just as a matter of their college performances, which are still ongoing, I don't quite understand this. I think Williams has been over-hyped by illusions if not delusions about her skill set, while Nurse's contributions have been diluted in the public mind. Let's just focus on what these two have done in college. I'm not going to make any draft predictions; others may.

Let's start with the fact that the 6-0 Nurse is one inch taller than the 5-11 Williams and just as solidly built. Nurse has been much less injury prone. Williams had two ACL tears and repairs in high school; Nurse, as far as I recall, has been injury free.

Williams can jump higher and is a better rebounder. No doubt. But after that, the illusions and dilutions begin to blur.

Let's get to the most important skill point: Nurse is an excellent outside shooter and Williams stinks. For their careers to date, Nurse on 3pt shots is 215-505 for 42.6%, whereas Williams is a pathetic 1-11 for 9.1%. Right now, Nurse is #4 in all of D1 in 3pt% at 48.1%. As to current year overall shooting on UConn, Nurse is leading UConn in eFG% at 69.7 while Williams is fifth at 58.1. Nurse is again first in TS% at 72.2 while Williams is again fifth at 60.5.

How about scoring? Nurse has scored 1413 points in her UConn career to date; Williams, somewhat less at 1353. In their careers they have drawn about the same number of fouls, Nurse 293 and Williams 305, but Nurse has shot FT's at a much higher percentage, 78% to 65%. Currently on the team, Nurse is second in scoring at 15.0 PPG; Williams is sixth at 10.8 PPG.

Frankly, much of Williams scoring and high FG% numbers are simply due to the fact that 90% of her makes are layups against short and nonathletic players -- an illusion. She not only has no shot from outside the 3pt arc, she has has very little touch from 15-21 feet either. Most of the jumpers she makes are from 12 feet or less. Nurse can shoot and score at high percentages from anywhere on the court.

What about Williams' vaunted defense? I think that again is a somewhat hyped delusion while Nurse's skills are relatively diluted in public perception. But not in Geno's; he often puts Nurse on the opponent's top scorer.

Blocks as defense? No difference this season: Williams has eight and Nurse has seven -- compared to UConn's real shot blockers, 34 and 32 for Stevens and Collier.

Steals as defense? Yes, Williams has the most on UConn this season at 41 compared to Nurse's 16. Williams gets a lot of these by cheating off her inside man or zone position to steal interior passes from sloppy guards. But Williams' off-ball risk-taking defense has downsides: she's out of position if she doesn't steal the ball, gets back-doored, and leads the team in turnovers with 47 to Nurse's 24.

What about Williams' vaunted passing? Nurse has more assists for their careers, 382 to 360, and with a higher A/TO, 2.03 to 1.65.

So what can Nurse play in the WNBA? 1 yes; 2 yes; 3 yes; 4 no; 5 no. She's a steady producer, not often having a great or a horrible game. I think she'd produce a regular 8-10 points, 3-4 rebounds, and 2-3 assists as a SG/W who can also cover the point.

What can Williams play? 1 no; 2 no; 3 only of you can use a SF who has no shot from outside 12 feet; 4 yes, but at 5-11, repeat 5-11; 5 no. Some say she could be the next Alyssa Thomas, another outside brickster, but Thomas is three inches taller.
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PostPosted: 01/18/18 12:39 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I read in the WNBA thread people proposing comparisons between Gabby Williams and Alyssa Thomas or Tamika Catchings. Since the purpose of the game of basketball is to put the ball into the basket, I looked at how the college careers of those three players compare as to three-point shooting.

The 6-1 Catchings was 122-366 for 33.3%.

The 6-2 Thomas was 19-71 for 26.8%.

The 5-11 Williams (after 3.4 seasons) is 1-11 for 9.1%.

I leave it to the reader to determine whether these comparisons, at least as to three-point shooting, are illusion, delusion, allusion, confusion, effusion or collusion.
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PostPosted: 01/18/18 2:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


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PostPosted: 01/18/18 12:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I’d take Nurse for the Sun in a second. The Sun needs better guard rotation. They have two excellent starting guards (Jasmine Thomas and Courtney Williams), a 1 great game outta 10 Alex Bentley and a practically useless Rachel Banham.
Nurse would be a big upgrade over either Bentley or Banham. And I don’t see last years draft pick Leticia Romero even making it all the way through training camp before she gets cut.


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PostPosted: 01/18/18 12:19 pm    ::: Re: The Gabby Delusion and Nurse Dilution Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
The WNBA forum seems pretty settled that this year's senior class will be a very strong one, Gabby Williams will go in the first four, maybe even #1, and that Kia Nurse will be somewhere far behind in the draft order.

Just as a matter of their college performances, which are still ongoing, I don't quite understand this. I think Williams has been over-hyped by illusions if not delusions about her skill set, while Nurse's contributions have been diluted in the public mind. Let's just focus on what these two have done in college. I'm not going to make any draft predictions; others may.

Let's start with the fact that the 6-0 Nurse is one inch taller than the 5-11 Williams and just as solidly built. Nurse has been much less injury prone. Williams had two ACL tears and repairs in high school; Nurse, as far as I recall, has been injury free.

Williams can jump higher and is a better rebounder. No doubt. But after that, the illusions and dilutions begin to blur.

Let's get to the most important skill point: Nurse is an excellent outside shooter and Williams stinks. For their careers to date, Nurse on 3pt shots is 215-505 for 42.6%, whereas Williams is a pathetic 1-11 for 9.1%. Right now, Nurse is #4 in all of D1 in 3pt% at 48.1%. As to current year overall shooting on UConn, Nurse is leading UConn in eFG% at 69.7 while Williams is fifth at 58.1. Nurse is again first in TS% at 72.2 while Williams is again fifth at 60.5.

How about scoring? Nurse has scored 1413 points in her UConn career to date; Williams, somewhat less at 1353. In their careers they have drawn about the same number of fouls, Nurse 293 and Williams 305, but Nurse has shot FT's at a much higher percentage, 78% to 65%. Currently on the team, Nurse is second in scoring at 15.0 PPG; Williams is sixth at 10.8 PPG.

Frankly, much of Williams scoring and high FG% numbers are simply due to the fact that 90% of her makes are layups against short and nonathletic players -- an illusion. She not only has no shot from outside the 3pt arc, she has has very little touch from 15-21 feet either. Most of the jumpers she makes are from 12 feet or less. Nurse can shoot and score at high percentages from anywhere on the court.

What about Williams' vaunted defense? I think that again is a somewhat hyped delusion while Nurse's skills are relatively diluted in public perception. But not in Geno's; he often puts Nurse on the opponent's top scorer.

Blocks as defense? No difference this season: Williams has eight and Nurse has seven -- compared to UConn's real shot blockers, 34 and 32 for Stevens and Collier.

Steals as defense? Yes, Williams has the most on UConn this season at 41 compared to Nurse's 16. Williams gets a lot of these by cheating off her inside man or zone position to steal interior passes from sloppy guards. But Williams' off-ball risk-taking defense has downsides: she's out of position if she doesn't steal the ball, gets back-doored, and leads the team in turnovers with 47 to Nurse's 24.

What about Williams' vaunted passing? Nurse has more assists for their careers, 382 to 360, and with a higher A/TO, 2.03 to 1.65.

So what can Nurse play in the WNBA? 1 yes; 2 yes; 3 yes; 4 no; 5 no. She's a steady producer, not often having a great or a horrible game. I think she'd produce a regular 8-10 points, 3-4 rebounds, and 2-3 assists as a SG/W who can also cover the point.

What can Williams play? 1 no; 2 no; 3 only of you can use a SF who has no shot from outside 12 feet; 4 yes, but at 5-11, repeat 5-11; 5 no. Some say she could be the next Alyssa Thomas, another outside brickster, but Thomas is three inches taller.


Ive yet to hear one person say Gabby will go #1 in the WNBA forum . The consensus has slipped her out of the lottery to somewhere between 4-7 at this time . But i agree your analysis is spot on , Delusion & Dilution .



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PostPosted: 01/18/18 12:19 pm    ::: Re: The Gabby Delusion and Nurse Dilution Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
The WNBA forum seems pretty settled that this year's senior class will be a very strong one, Gabby Williams will go in the first four, maybe even #1, and that Kia Nurse will be somewhere far behind in the draft order.

Just as a matter of their college performances, which are still ongoing, I don't quite understand this. I think Williams has been over-hyped by illusions if not delusions about her skill set, while Nurse's contributions have been diluted in the public mind. Let's just focus on what these two have done in college. I'm not going to make any draft predictions; others may.

Let's start with the fact that the 6-0 Nurse is one inch taller than the 5-11 Williams and just as solidly built. Nurse has been much less injury prone. Williams had two ACL tears and repairs in high school; Nurse, as far as I recall, has been injury free.

Williams can jump higher and is a better rebounder. No doubt. But after that, the illusions and dilutions begin to blur.

Let's get to the most important skill point: Nurse is an excellent outside shooter and Williams stinks. For their careers to date, Nurse on 3pt shots is 215-505 for 42.6%, whereas Williams is a pathetic 1-11 for 9.1%. Right now, Nurse is #4 in all of D1 in 3pt% at 48.1%. As to current year overall shooting on UConn, Nurse is leading UConn in eFG% at 69.7 while Williams is fifth at 58.1. Nurse is again first in TS% at 72.2 while Williams is again fifth at 60.5.

How about scoring? Nurse has scored 1413 points in her UConn career to date; Williams, somewhat less at 1353. In their careers they have drawn about the same number of fouls, Nurse 293 and Williams 305, but Nurse has shot FT's at a much higher percentage, 78% to 65%. Currently on the team, Nurse is second in scoring at 15.0 PPG; Williams is sixth at 10.8 PPG.

Frankly, much of Williams scoring and high FG% numbers are simply due to the fact that 90% of her makes are layups against short and nonathletic players -- an illusion. She not only has no shot from outside the 3pt arc, she has has very little touch from 15-21 feet either. Most of the jumpers she makes are from 12 feet or less. Nurse can shoot and score at high percentages from anywhere on the court.

What about Williams' vaunted defense? I think that again is a somewhat hyped delusion while Nurse's skills are relatively diluted in public perception. But not in Geno's; he often puts Nurse on the opponent's top scorer.

Blocks as defense? No difference this season: Williams has eight and Nurse has seven -- compared to UConn's real shot blockers, 34 and 32 for Stevens and Collier.

Steals as defense? Yes, Williams has the most on UConn this season at 41 compared to Nurse's 16. Williams gets a lot of these by cheating off her inside man or zone position to steal interior passes from sloppy guards. But Williams' off-ball risk-taking defense has downsides: she's out of position if she doesn't steal the ball, gets back-doored, and leads the team in turnovers with 47 to Nurse's 24.

What about Williams' vaunted passing? Nurse has more assists for their careers, 382 to 360, and with a higher A/TO, 2.03 to 1.65.

So what can Nurse play in the WNBA? 1 yes; 2 yes; 3 yes; 4 no; 5 no. She's a steady producer, not often having a great or a horrible game. I think she'd produce a regular 8-10 points, 3-4 rebounds, and 2-3 assists as a SG/W who can also cover the point.

What can Williams play? 1 no; 2 no; 3 only of you can use a SF who has no shot from outside 12 feet; 4 yes, but at 5-11, repeat 5-11; 5 no. Some say she could be the next Alyssa Thomas, another outside brickster, but Thomas is three inches taller.




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PostPosted: 01/18/18 12:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

One reason to keep this conversation at this level is that it highlights the difference between being a good/exceptional college player and having the same success in the WNBA.

I have doubts about Nurse being able to defend quicker wings in the WNBA, and I have doubts about Williams finding a way to score -- but both are very, very good in college, and in a way, it's unfair to throw shade on what they're doing now by pointing out their potential weaknesses at the next level.

The same is true going from high school to college. Often girls who are high school stars are considered disappointments if they don't do the same in college, but they are much different environments and success in one does not necessarily predict success in the other.

For example, a few years ago we named Ali Patberg as the MaxPreps High School Player of the Year over, among others, Katie Lou Samuelson. I heard indirectly that a lot of influential people were upset at the choice and thought it was dumb, but my rationale was that Patberg had a better senior year in high school than Samuelson did. It wasn't about potential or international play or whatever, but about that season of sport. Of course Samuelson was likely to have the better future, but the award wasn't about that.

This year, the team I coach played a very good high school team from Alaska (Dimond). The post player, Alissa Pili, is about 5-11, but she's a monster at the high school level; she won't be the same threat if she goes Power 5 in college because she'll be undersized, but unless she's facing a Power 5 post in high school, she's pretty much unstoppable. Their point guard is a very good high school guard, but too small to be really effective in college, and their shooter is tall enough to be a problem in high school but likely not at the next level.

So should we judge those three players by what they do now, and what their team is, or by what they might or might not do at the next level?

Should we focus on Nurse and Williams as WNBA prospects or enjoy their college careers?

Of course we can do both, but I think sometimes the pendulum swings too far in the direction of worrying about potential and the future rather than giving credit for what's happening in front of our eyes.



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PostPosted: 01/18/18 12:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
I read in the WNBA thread people proposing comparisons between Gabby Williams and Alyssa Thomas or Tamika Catchings.


lmfao



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PostPosted: 01/18/18 2:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:


I have doubts about Nurse being able to defend quicker wings in the WNBA, and I have doubts about Williams finding a way to score -- but both are very, very good in college, and in a way, it's unfair to throw shade on what they're doing now by pointing out their potential weaknesses at the next level.



agree on both these. I know Kia is a really good defender at the college level, but I'm not convinced she has the quickness to do so in the W. Still I see her as a solid rotation player because of her all-around game and she plays so 'smart'. I also think Gabby will find a good home in the W because of her instincts and athleticism, which are truly off the charts. I also agree we should enjoy them as college players because they are fun to watch, even for us non-UConn fans. At the same time I do look forward to seeing how they progress as they go into the W. It's a big step up and will likely take some time, but I think both will be there.



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PostPosted: 01/18/18 3:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

IMO all of this missing on one thing which is harder to measure but both of Nurse and Williams got more of than other players and it's called heart and effort levels. While by itself it is note nought without certain skills, hight, etc both Williams and Nurse have an abundance of skills and yes, they are coming from UConn which is the closest to a pro team in demands and preparations. Will they be stars at the WNBA? Probably not but I can see both as a 6-7 player in a rotation of a title contender.


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PostPosted: 01/18/18 5:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

My guess is both are destined to be W reserves, w/ Nurse having more value and probably the longer, albeit non-distinguished, career.



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PostPosted: 01/19/18 1:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


I saw Nurse and Williams stand near each other during the recent Texas game and my thought was that Nurse didn't look taller than Williams. Then there's wingspan, which I think Williams wins.

But I would put Williams as too small to play WNBA 4, and she's probably gonna have to pick up an outside shot real fast if she wants to make it as a three. I say probably because Tamera Young went a number of years without taking any significant number of threes. She was [13-40, 3-13, 13-47] her first 3 years, then for the next 6 years combined she was 1 for 11, before going 25 for 73 last yar.


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 1:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
linkster wrote:
I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


I saw Nurse and Williams stand near each other during the recent Texas game and my thought was that Nurse didn't look taller than Williams. Then there's wingspan, which I think Williams wins.

But I would put Williams as too small to play WNBA 4, and she's probably gonna have to pick up an outside shot real fast if she wants to make it as a three. I say probably because Tamera Young went a number of years without taking any significant number of threes. She was [13-40, 3-13, 13-47] her first 3 years, then for the next 6 years combined she was 1 for 11, before going 25 for 73 last yar.


Williams has a pretty good mid range shot and can elevate enough to shoot it over 4's & 5's. Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand. And most discussing Williams jere seem to think that players only play offense. Now I'll admit that no one is going to be getting lots of minutes as a defensive player but Williams has dominated against some of the best players in college the last 3 years and last I looked that's where the WNBA gets it's players.

Williams likely will have a fine WNBA career and her style of play will put asses in seats. And the bottom line is that the WNBA needs asses in seats more than it needs arc shooters.


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 1:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

double post


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 9:06 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
tfan wrote:
linkster wrote:
I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


I saw Nurse and Williams stand near each other during the recent Texas game and my thought was that Nurse didn't look taller than Williams. Then there's wingspan, which I think Williams wins.

But I would put Williams as too small to play WNBA 4, and she's probably gonna have to pick up an outside shot real fast if she wants to make it as a three. I say probably because Tamera Young went a number of years without taking any significant number of threes. She was [13-40, 3-13, 13-47] her first 3 years, then for the next 6 years combined she was 1 for 11, before going 25 for 73 last yar.


Williams has a pretty good mid range shot and can elevate enough to shoot it over 4's & 5's. Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand. And most discussing Williams jere seem to think that players only play offense. Now I'll admit that no one is going to be getting lots of minutes as a defensive player but Williams has dominated against some of the best players in college the last 3 years and last I looked that's where the WNBA gets it's players.

Williams likely will have a fine WNBA career and her style of play will put asses in seats. And the bottom line is that the WNBA needs asses in seats more than it needs arc shooters.


Define fine.



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PostPosted: 01/20/18 9:57 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
tfan wrote:
linkster wrote:
I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


I saw Nurse and Williams stand near each other during the recent Texas game and my thought was that Nurse didn't look taller than Williams. Then there's wingspan, which I think Williams wins.

But I would put Williams as too small to play WNBA 4, and she's probably gonna have to pick up an outside shot real fast if she wants to make it as a three. I say probably because Tamera Young went a number of years without taking any significant number of threes. She was [13-40, 3-13, 13-47] her first 3 years, then for the next 6 years combined she was 1 for 11, before going 25 for 73 last yar.


Williams has a pretty good mid range shot and can elevate enough to shoot it over 4's & 5's. Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand. And most discussing Williams jere seem to think that players only play offense. Now I'll admit that no one is going to be getting lots of minutes as a defensive player but Williams has dominated against some of the best players in college the last 3 years and last I looked that's where the WNBA gets it's players.

Williams likely will have a fine WNBA career and her style of play will put asses in seats. And the bottom line is that the WNBA needs asses in seats more than it needs arc shooters.


So are you suggesting people will fill seats to watch players play defense instead of hitting shots ? Shocked



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PostPosted: 01/20/18 11:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Anyone else got this flu? Its not fun. I think they will both be fine, just as I think Wilson will be fine. All these players will have a learning curve. There is so much verbiage about some players over other players but really, which have been consistent against top competition for most of their careers. A lot of teams play a lot of cupcakes and don't measure themselves frequently enough against the top teams. I would be more inclined to worry about a player who has not played with much discipline. As with all, it will come down to need, fit and getting lucky enough to be in a good situation.


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 12:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I don't see Williams going till the 2nd round, and it may be late then.


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 12:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ladyvol777 wrote:
I don't see Williams going till the 2nd round, and it may be late then.


A disastrous injury is the only way she approaches that depth.



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PostPosted: 01/20/18 7:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand.


It seems like most of them can do both.

Possible starting small forwards 2018:

Maya Moore - Lynx - 464 - 1200 38.7% from three
Elena Della Donne - Mystics - 180 - 471 38.2%
Kahleah Copper - Sky - 24 - 64 37.5%
Shekinna Stricklen - Sun - 287 - 788 36.4%
Alysha Clark - Storm - 121 - 346 35%
Aerial Powers - Wings - 45 - 129 34.9%
Marissa Coleman - Fever - 303 - 879 34.5
Monique Curry - Mercury - 267 - 783 34.1%
Alex Montgomery - Aces - 94 - 276 34.1%
Karima Christmas-Kelly - Wings - 174 - 540 32.2%
Essence Carson - Sparks - 158 - 499 31.7%
Shavonte Zellous - Liberty - 143 - 470 30.4%
Tamera Young - Dream - 55 - 184 29.9%


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 9:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
linkster wrote:
tfan wrote:
linkster wrote:
I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


I saw Nurse and Williams stand near each other during the recent Texas game and my thought was that Nurse didn't look taller than Williams. Then there's wingspan, which I think Williams wins.

But I would put Williams as too small to play WNBA 4, and she's probably gonna have to pick up an outside shot real fast if she wants to make it as a three. I say probably because Tamera Young went a number of years without taking any significant number of threes. She was [13-40, 3-13, 13-47] her first 3 years, then for the next 6 years combined she was 1 for 11, before going 25 for 73 last yar.


Williams has a pretty good mid range shot and can elevate enough to shoot it over 4's & 5's. Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand. And most discussing Williams jere seem to think that players only play offense. Now I'll admit that no one is going to be getting lots of minutes as a defensive player but Williams has dominated against some of the best players in college the last 3 years and last I looked that's where the WNBA gets it's players.

Williams likely will have a fine WNBA career and her style of play will put asses in seats. And the bottom line is that the WNBA needs asses in seats more than it needs arc shooters.


So are you suggesting people will fill seats to watch players play defense instead of hitting shots ? Shocked


No,


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 9:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
linkster wrote:
Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand.


It seems like most of them can do both.

Possible starting small forwards 2018:

Maya Moore - Lynx - 464 - 1200 38.7% from three
Elena Della Donne - Mystics - 180 - 471 38.2%
Kahleah Copper - Sky - 24 - 64 37.5%
Shekinna Stricklen - Sun - 287 - 788 36.4%
Alysha Clark - Storm - 121 - 346 35%
Aerial Powers - Wings - 45 - 129 34.9%
Marissa Coleman - Fever - 303 - 879 34.5
Monique Curry - Mercury - 267 - 783 34.1%
Alex Montgomery - Aces - 94 - 276 34.1%
Karima Christmas-Kelly - Wings - 174 - 540 32.2%
Essence Carson - Sparks - 158 - 499 31.7%
Shavonte Zellous - Liberty - 143 - 470 30.4%
Tamera Young - Dream - 55 - 184 29.9%


Here's the reality from last year

In 34 games Kaleah Copper made 10 three's
In 33 games Alysha Clark made 22 three's
In 34 games Marissa Coleman made 28 three's
In 22 games Monique Curry made 25 three's
In 34 games Alex Montgomery made 23 three's
In 34 games Christmas-Kelly made 26 three's
In 24 games Essense Carson made 9 three's
In 34 Games Zellous made 15 three's
In 11 games Young made 3 three's

Not exactly adding much to their teams' scoring. So outside of Moore and Della Donne none of the other teams would lose much in the way of 3 pt scoring if Williams started in the place of those you listed and never shot a three all season.


tfan



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PostPosted: 01/21/18 5:17 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:


Not exactly adding much to their teams' scoring. So outside of Moore and Della Donne none of the other teams would lose much in the way of 3 pt scoring if Williams started in the place of those you listed and never shot a three all season.


If someone can't hit threes - or can only hit jump shots from 15 feet or less, the defender can sag off them and be available to help on other players.


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PostPosted: 01/21/18 9:06 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
linkster wrote:
tfan wrote:
linkster wrote:
I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


I saw Nurse and Williams stand near each other during the recent Texas game and my thought was that Nurse didn't look taller than Williams. Then there's wingspan, which I think Williams wins.

But I would put Williams as too small to play WNBA 4, and she's probably gonna have to pick up an outside shot real fast if she wants to make it as a three. I say probably because Tamera Young went a number of years without taking any significant number of threes. She was [13-40, 3-13, 13-47] her first 3 years, then for the next 6 years combined she was 1 for 11, before going 25 for 73 last yar.


Williams has a pretty good mid range shot and can elevate enough to shoot it over 4's & 5's. Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand. And most discussing Williams jere seem to think that players only play offense. Now I'll admit that no one is going to be getting lots of minutes as a defensive player but Williams has dominated against some of the best players in college the last 3 years and last I looked that's where the WNBA gets it's players.

Williams likely will have a fine WNBA career and her style of play will put asses in seats. And the bottom line is that the WNBA needs asses in seats more than it needs arc shooters.


So are you suggesting people will fill seats to watch players play defense instead of hitting shots ? Shocked


I would say her style of play is exciting, she plays with effort, she's fast and can jump, and always has a few jaw dropping moments. I'm not sure where Williams will play at the next level, if she's an undersized post I think she'll have a fine career, if she can move to the wing, I think she'll be a future All Star, All WNBA team type of player, and a future WNBA DPOY.
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PostPosted: 01/22/18 7:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I posted this topic in the NCAA forum because I am primarily interested in comparing the supposed "gap" between Williams and Nurse as college players, who also happen to be on the same team. Secondarily, this alleged gap may influence WNBA draft positions, but they are also influenced by individual WNBA team needs.

My hypothesis is that the gap is not nearly what a lot of people seem to assume, when you look at actual data without being influenced by what I consider to be over-hyped hyperbole about Williams' unique if not supernatural "athleticism". In fact, the statistical and performance gap is arguably in Nurse's favor.

Since posting my analysis in the OP, UConn has had two games, against over-matched AAC opponents Tulsa and Temple. In those games:

-- Williams took 17 shots, 16 layup attempts and one eight foot float shot. She made eight of these shots for a two game average of 8 PPG and a FG% of 47%. This lowered her season scoring average to 10.7 PPG, still sixth on the team.

-- Nurse took 24 shots, 15 of them three-point shots. She made 15-24 overall and 9-15 on the threes, for a two game average of 20.5 PPG and a FG% of 64%. This raised her season scoring average to 15.6 PPG, second to KLS's 16.8. As of today, Nurse is #1 in all of D1 in 3FG% at 50.0%.

In those two games, Williams had 8 rebounds, 16 assists and 8 steals; Nurse had 6, 8 and 2.

Compared to last season, Williams' scoring average has dropped from 14.3 PPG to 10.7, while Nurse's has increased from 12.7 PPG to 15.6.

On the injury front, Williams has been removed from games because of migraine headaches and hip flexor pain; Nurse has been healthy.

Finally, as to height -- the original fake news subject in the world -- these two players are close, but it's interesting that no one has ever claimed that Williams is 6-0, when there must be a great marketing temptation to do so. Here is the UConn roster photo, in which the front row players are clearly seated in order of increasing height away from Geno in the center. Williams is sitting between the 5-8 Coombs and Nurse:



I think Nurse has a "taller" torso, neck and head, while Williams has longer legs and arms. I've been right next to both on the court, and they are very close in height, but I did think Nurse was a smidge taller.

Which player has a statistical gap in her favor? If it's Nurse, and you wanted a SF or wing kind of player, does Williams really have some sort of "athleticism" that is so rare and so unique that it catapults Williams not merely ahead of Nurse, but so far ahead of Nurse that there is a big gap in Williams' favor? I dissent.
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PostPosted: 01/22/18 7:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I like this discussion and makes one think about verbiage. I have never thought there was much difference, they just bring different attributes. Nurse is getting some wide open 3s and she is knocking them down which is what will be expected of her in the W. Williams creates havoc and a primary distributor at the high post, which is also an asset. What I noticed from this is Walker cannot be 6' 1" if Gordon is 6' Laughing


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PostPosted: 01/28/18 12:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:

I leave it to the reader to determine whether these comparisons, at least as to three-point shooting, are illusion, delusion, allusion, confusion, effusion or collusion.



I prefer to consider them extrusion: it came out of their rears......


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PostPosted: 03/03/18 11:25 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Kia Nurse was named AAC Defensive Player of the Year, taking away the award that Gabby Williams won last year. Nurse usually gets the call to play silent lockdown MTM defense on the opponent's best guard or wing, whereas Williams gets more Lobogasmic defensive hype because her role is to cheat into the passing lanes to make steals that lead to re-re-played fast breaks.

At the end of the regular season Nurse has: scored 14.5 ppg to William's 10.7; drawn more fouls and shot FT's at 82% to Williams's 71%; hit 72 3pt shots to Williams' 0, and is currently the fourth best 3FG% shooter in D1; has only 36 TO's vs. Williams' team leading 75; has almost the same number of blocks (12 vs. 15); and leads UConn in minutes per game, whereas Williams is fifth in mpg.

Williams has more rebounds, assists and steals. Williams has a FG% of .586 to Nurse's .544, but of course about 85% of Williams' shots are layups while Nurse shoots a huge number of outside shots.
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PostPosted: 03/03/18 11:37 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nurse is having a really good year.


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PostPosted: 03/03/18 1:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'd guess that Nurse's shut down of Laksa had something to do with her DPOY award.

I'd also award the Rebkel Over-Achiever Prize to Nurse considering the general panning of her prospects by many of the posters here 4 1/2 years ago. If I remember correctly she was projected to be a bench player for four years, spending most of her time closer to the far end of the bench than the near side.


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PostPosted: 03/03/18 5:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
I'd guess that Nurse's shut down of Laksa had something to do with her DPOY award.

I'd also award the Rebkel Over-Achiever Prize to Nurse considering the general panning of her prospects by many of the posters here 4 1/2 years ago. If I remember correctly she was projected to be a bench player for four years, spending most of her time closer to the far end of the bench than the near side.


Laughing

Hyperbole yet again from one who derides it.



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PostPosted: 03/03/18 6:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
linkster wrote:
I'd guess that Nurse's shut down of Laksa had something to do with her DPOY award.

I'd also award the Rebkel Over-Achiever Prize to Nurse considering the general panning of her prospects by many of the posters here 4 1/2 years ago. If I remember correctly she was projected to be a bench player for four years, spending most of her time closer to the far end of the bench than the near side.


Laughing

Hyperbole yet again from one who derides it.


Very Happy That's it. When you can't dispute the facts then attack the messenger.


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PostPosted: 03/04/18 12:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wooden you know it, delusion trumps dilution: Williams but not Nurse makes the cut to 15.
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PostPosted: 03/04/18 4:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
linkster wrote:
I'd guess that Nurse's shut down of Laksa had something to do with her DPOY award.

I'd also award the Rebkel Over-Achiever Prize to Nurse considering the general panning of her prospects by many of the posters here 4 1/2 years ago. If I remember correctly she was projected to be a bench player for four years, spending most of her time closer to the far end of the bench than the near side.


Laughing

Hyperbole yet again from one who derides it.


Very Happy That's it. When you can't dispute the facts then attack the messenger.


That's it. When you can't prove a claim as fact, attack the messenger. Laughing



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PostPosted: 03/04/18 5:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
linkster wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
linkster wrote:
I'd guess that Nurse's shut down of Laksa had something to do with her DPOY award.

I'd also award the Rebkel Over-Achiever Prize to Nurse considering the general panning of her prospects by many of the posters here 4 1/2 years ago. If I remember correctly she was projected to be a bench player for four years, spending most of her time closer to the far end of the bench than the near side.


Laughing

Hyperbole yet again from one who derides it.


Very Happy That's it. When you can't dispute the facts then attack the messenger.


That's it. When you can't prove a claim as fact, attack the messenger. Laughing



http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?t=80772&highlight=kia+nurse

There's a link. The thing that is noticable is that more than one poster was ready to pass judgement on Nurse based on very meager information and further that a few totally dismissed her starting on the CNT as a high school junior as evidence of basketball maturity.

Here are a few of the comments without attribution.



Quote:
That's an excellent stat page, which I think can shed lots of light on Nurse's potential. It lists 49 games that Nurse has played on the Ontario Provincial Team and the Canadian National team. That's a lot more than one college season of data. Here are Nurse's stats over those 49 games:
12.7 PPG
41.5 FG% (207-499)
32.2 3FG% (37-115). An average of O.76 3FG made per game.
3.3 RPG
1.4 APG
2.8 TOPG
O.51 A/TO
Mostly from these stats, plus a few video games I've seen, I'd conclude that Nurse:
- Was a decent scorer for a point guard in those 49 games, though there's no way of ascertaining the level of competition. Some international teams are really good, others really terrible.
- Had an okay FG% for a guard.
- Had a below average 3FG% even by high school standards.
- Had an extremely poor record for assists, turnovers and A/TO.
From these stats and some optics, I'd say she has a very, very long row to hoe to make it as either a point guard or shooting guard at UConn. Unless she improves dramatically in those areas, I would project her as a bench player below the top 8 of the rotation. Chong, Edwards and Ekmark are all likely better shooters, and Chong is certainly a far superior passer. If Durr commits to UConn the following year, she would immediately jump way ahead of Nurse in the rotation.


For the record Nurse must have learned very very quickly because she took over a starting position in her 3rd game and started her entire career. I'd add that those who say Williams can't play the 2 in the W because she can't shoot 3's should look at Nurse.

Quote:
Based on the limited footage I've seen of her and that of HS Chong, I'd say Chong looked ~5x better.



Quote:
This is obviously just a quick, superficial observation, but she reminds me somewhat of Ashley Valley.


Quote:
Nothing in Nurse's seven game performance at the Worlds change my preliminary conclusions above. I don't see her as a strong candidate as either a three-point SG shooter or an effective PG passer at UConn, based now on 56 games of statistics and several games observed.


Quote:
In the Worlds, Nurse averaged 1.1 assists per game, sixth best on the Canadian team. She shot 38.3% from the floor and 23.1% (3-13) on three-point shots.
She is a hustler and hard-nosed defender with strong general athletic skills, who could be a very good utility player on UConn's elite team.


Quote:
So far, to me, she's like Ashley Valley, but in a bigger, stronger body. Not fast. Not a great shooter. Does a lot of stuff decently; nothing great.


For the record, in her career, Valley was 25-70 from outside the arc. This year alone Nurse has made 72 three's.

Quote:
Hopefully will become an excellent defender and steady PG, at the very least.


Now if we all only posted opinions when we were 100% convinced this would be a much smaller and more boring board. Speculation is the spice of conversation. I'm not saying some of the comments were without any justification but I'd say that my awarding Nurse the Over-achiever Award based on the expectations for her coming into college is more than justified.
The list of 4 year starters for UConn isn't very long.


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PostPosted: 03/04/18 9:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

still waiting for the "many".

Boners can get their panties in a wad over these things-speculation in the summer prior to the player's arrival on campus later labeled as proof people dissed our girls! Oh, the horror.

Ashley Valley, as I observed, was a spaz when it came to layups, and Nurse isn't much better. She still reminds me of AV in that regard. Anyone honest should admit it. But, you've conflated that and 3-pt shooting. Well done. You could be Trump's press agent. Wink

You gonna post my comment made before game #1 of her UConn career in which I suggest she should start? And when you do, perhaps you'll post your prediction that she'll be an (almost) 4-yr starter and shoot 45% from 3! Laughing



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PostPosted: 03/04/18 9:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
still waiting for the "many".

Boners can get their panties in a wad over these things-speculation in the summer prior to the player's arrival on campus later labeled as proof people dissed our girls! Oh, the horror.

Ashley Valley, as I observed, was a spaz when it came to layups, and Nurse isn't much better. She still reminds me of AV in that regard. Anyone honest should admit it. But, you've conflated that and 3-pt shooting. Well done. You could be Trump's press agent. Wink

You gonna post my comment made before game #1 of her UConn career in which I suggest she should start? And when you do, perhaps you'll post your prediction that she'll be an (almost) 4-yr starter and shoot 45% from 3! Laughing


Post your own evidence. I'm not your servant.

For someone who ran away from another board rather than admit they made a provocative comment about a players's parents and coaches without a shred of factual evidence to support it you certainly have a lot of nerve passing judgement on anyone.

I think I supported my comment. I don't give a rat's ass whether you agree.


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PostPosted: 03/04/18 9:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
still waiting for the "many".

Boners can get their panties in a wad over these things-speculation in the summer prior to the player's arrival on campus later labeled as proof people dissed our girls! Oh, the horror.

Ashley Valley, as I observed, was a spaz when it came to layups, and Nurse isn't much better. She still reminds me of AV in that regard. Anyone honest should admit it. But, you've conflated that and 3-pt shooting. Well done. You could be Trump's press agent. Wink

You gonna post my comment made before game #1 of her UConn career in which I suggest she should start? And when you do, perhaps you'll post your prediction that she'll be an (almost) 4-yr starter and shoot 45% from 3! Laughing


Post your own evidence. I'm not your servant.

For someone who ran away from another board rather than admit they made a provocative comment about a players's parents and coaches without a shred of factual evidence to support it you certainly have a lot of nerve passing judgement on anyone.

I think I supported my comment. I don't give a rat's ass whether you agree.




Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

And he returns w/ more hyperbole.

Apparently wadding panties can cut off oxygen supply.



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PostPosted: 03/04/18 9:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Do you have something to say other than tossing out a bunch of ad hominem comments?


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PostPosted: 03/04/18 10:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
Do you have something to say other than tossing out a bunch of ad hominem comments?


My goodness, more hyperbole. Can you make a comment w/o engaging in it?



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PostPosted: 03/05/18 6:30 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Let me start a conspiracy.

IMO Geno and Coaches staff Nominated Kia as UConn's nominee for Defensive Player of the Year in an effort to get her on the WBCA All American Team.

Kia is now eligible to win the National Defensive Player of the Year. An award that Gabby won last year.

I also speculate the three players UConn will nominate for the WBCA All American team will be KLS, Gabby and Kia. Kia replaces Napheesa this year.

IMO it will be tough for Kia to make the WBCA All American Team as a guard as there are other guards that most likely will be nominated with better stats then Kia. However, she has a chance being on an undefeated UConn team.


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PostPosted: 03/05/18 8:39 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XLFPjIhBLZs" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4P7z8ojPbEA" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>


tfan



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PostPosted: 03/05/18 8:39 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

*duplicate*


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PostPosted: 03/05/18 10:06 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I don't think a coach can vote for his own players for All-Conference awards.
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PostPosted: 03/07/18 9:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

A WNBA head coach should rely on their own experience, needs, and judgement to determine what players they want in the draft. There is more to basketball than just making three point baskets. Wink



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PostPosted: 04/01/18 12:27 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8hf1_qJRfmQ" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>


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