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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3126
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 03/03/18 7:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Queenie wrote:
So what does the trainwreck that is the 2018 A-10 tournament do to the A-10's at-large chances? Will it be auto-bid plus Dayton, or just auto-bid?

(Yes, salty Fordham fan is salty.)


Dayton is a bubble team, but I believe they will be left out. I believe they could have made it if they hadn't also lost to St. Louis to end the regular season, but that probably puts them out.

As I see it right now there are 3 spots open with the following teams fighting for those spots:

USC - should be in
Indiana - in based on end of season but overall questionable.
Rutgers- overall stronger than Indiana but week throughout Big 10.
South Dakota State or South Dakota possible for loser if both reach final.
West Virginia needs win over Oklahoma State probably
Central Florida slight chance with win over South Florida but still doubtful
Creighton needs to reach Big East final
Oklahoma lost to TCU probably knocked them out
TCU still needs one more big win vs Baylor
Michigan State very unlikely
Purdue very unlikely
Ball State unlikely even if they reach Mac final
Dayton probably out

Mercer would join the list if thye lose the Southern final. Green Bay would probably get in if they lose, which would reduce the open spots to 2.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3126
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PostPosted: 03/03/18 7:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The mechanics of the RPI have an inherent bias against teams that play a higher percentage of their games against the power conferences. The reason for this is that teams from lower rated conferences generally have better records than teams from tougher conferences of the same quality. Games against Virginia (18-13) and Morehead St (19-11) would be considered as nearly equal by RPI, but the Virginia game would be much tougher. Generally this is balanced out by other factors, but every year a few teams have their ratings vastly distorted. In some ways the bigger mistakes are less of a problem because they are so obvious. No one believes Buffalo is #16, but when the differences are small they go unnoticed, even if they are real and quantifiable. The effect of a conference playing 18 games vs 16 games for example, makes a difference, but because the difference also depends on the quality of the conference (it acts as a regression to the mean) it is subtle.

As I have stated before, it is sad to think that the NCAA, which is supposed to be an association of institutions of higher learning, would stick with a system that is so inherently flawed that a first year philosophy major could come up with a better one.


myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 03/04/18 3:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

yeesh, Creme claims Dayton is in. But I agree that there really isn't anything on their resume that shouts 'in'. If beating Virginia is that hot, then Duquesne should be in.



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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3126
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 03/04/18 3:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
yeesh, Creme claims Dayton is in. But I agree that there really isn't anything on their resume that shouts 'in'. If beating Virginia is that hot, then Duquesne should be in.


I haven't looked at it but I also understand he doesn't have Nebraska in the field I believe the Cornhuskers are in for sure and could be as high as a 7 seed I will do a full bracket on Wednesday when I get back from the Pac-12 tournament.

The Pac-12 maybe catching a break with Oklahoma State and Western Kentucky both losing. As a result USC may stay in the top 50.


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 3535
Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 03/04/18 3:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
yeesh, Creme claims Dayton is in. But I agree that there really isn't anything on their resume that shouts 'in'. If beating Virginia is that hot, then Duquesne should be in.


I'm not sure how one win over Virginia constitues a superior resume than beating Iowa twice along Michigan (and Maryland). If the Big Ten sucks that much, then why are Maryland, Ohio St, and Iowa projected 6-seeds or higher?


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
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PostPosted: 03/04/18 3:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
myrtle wrote:
yeesh, Creme claims Dayton is in. But I agree that there really isn't anything on their resume that shouts 'in'. If beating Virginia is that hot, then Duquesne should be in.


I haven't looked at it but I also understand he doesn't have Nebraska in the field I believe the Cornhuskers are in for sure and could be as high as a 7 seed I will do a full bracket on Wednesday when I get back from the Pac-12 tournament.

The Pac-12 maybe catching a break with Oklahoma State and Western Kentucky both losing. As a result USC may stay in the top 50.


His logic seems to me to be that since Nebraska and Minnesota had crappy non-conference schedules/performances, the fact that they beat good teams and had good records in Big Ten play just means the Big Ten isn't that good and those wins shouldn't mean much, not that maybe some teams take until conference season starts for things to click.


PRballer



Joined: 18 Apr 2007
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PostPosted: 03/04/18 3:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Creme’s current Lexington Regional doesn’t have a single SEC team in there which is a head scratcher. I don’t always understand his brackets when it comes to geography and maximizing attendance potential.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/04/18 5:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PRballer wrote:
Creme’s current Lexington Regional doesn’t have a single SEC team in there which is a head scratcher. I don’t always understand his brackets when it comes to geography and maximizing attendance potential.


His current bracket violates the current NCAA principles. One of the top four teams from the SEC has to be in the Lexington Regional. He will most likely fix that in his next prediction.

As for the Big 10, I may slightly overvalue the conference play, but that is because it most accurately assesses current quality in top conferences. Nebraska and Minnesota both established clear superiority over Rutgers. He doesn't even include Indiana who in my mind has a vastly superior resume than Purdue. I have Rutgers barely ahead of Indiana based on games played but when I factor in when the games were played Indiana move ahead.

Barring a major upset there are only a handful of games left that could affect what teams make the NCAA. Texas - West Virginia tonight, Creighton - DePaul tomorrow, Central Florida - South Florida tomorrow, the Summit final and some MAC games.


mikeyc22



Joined: 20 Apr 2006
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PostPosted: 03/04/18 6:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Does Louisville have a case for the overall #2?


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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PostPosted: 03/04/18 7:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

mikeyc22 wrote:
Does Louisville have a case for the overall #2?


It is fairly close, but I would say yes. I totally discount a loss to UCONN so effectively each team has one loss to fairly comparable teams. LOuisville has 2 wins over Notre Dame and wins over Oregon, Ohio St for 4 top 10 wins. MSU has only 2 (South Carolina is 11).

This will make it easier to justify Louisville in the Lexington region and MSU in Kansas City, and then having Baylor, potentially as the top #2 seed, in KC as well.


ClayK



Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: 03/05/18 10:24 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So who are the host schools? To me, that's the most important thing about the brackets because that gives teams a huge leg up on the road to the Sweet 16. (Once you get to the Sweet 16, they are all good teams so you have to play well ...)



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Nixtreefan



Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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PostPosted: 03/05/18 11:34 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
mikeyc22 wrote:
Does Louisville have a case for the overall #2?


It is fairly close, but I would say yes. I totally discount a loss to UCONN so effectively each team has one loss to fairly comparable teams. LOuisville has 2 wins over Notre Dame and wins over Oregon, Ohio St for 4 top 10 wins. MSU has only 2 (South Carolina is 11).

This will make it easier to justify Louisville in the Lexington region and MSU in Kansas City, and then having Baylor, potentially as the top #2 seed, in KC as well.


This sounds like the most interesting match up.


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