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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5163 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 11/02/17 9:17 pm ::: Pac 12 2017-18 |
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Cal opens its season tonight with an exhibition game against Vanguard (#4 ranked NAIA team who will play UCLA Sunday.)
Kristen Anigwe will not be playing due to a minor injury, but should be back before Cal plays UConn on November 17. My biggest interests for this game are the improvements of sophomores CJ West and Jaelyn Brown as well as transfer Sara Anastasieska. West looked good at the end of last season and will get big minutes tonight without Anigwe. Brown should battle with Penina Davidson to be a starter after Courtney Range's graduation. Brown showed some flashes last season but needs to play more under control to reach her full potential. Sara A. is an Australian who sat out last year after transferring from UTSA. Last year Cal's biggest weakness was 3pt shooting. They made less than 5 3pt shots per game and, aside from Asha Thomas and Range, were a combined 62-234 (26.5%). The lack of outside shooting allowed teams to collapse down on Anigwe and limit her effectiveness. If Sara A. can be an outside threat she will get meaningful minutes for the Bears.
Cal's top freshman appears to be Kianna Smith. She should battle with M'Cole Cayton for playing time at the big guard position. Cayton was a strong defensive player as a freshman and started the last 12 games of the season, but showed little offense. Smith appears to be a stronger offensive player. Mikayla Cowling and Asha Thomas will be the other starters.
Overall the Bears appear to be at least as good as last year, and could be significantly better. I expect the Bears to finish with 10 or 11 wins in the Pac 12, good enough for 4th or 5th.
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stever
Joined: 16 Nov 2004 Posts: 6918 Location: https://womensbasketballdaily.net
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elsie
Joined: 08 Apr 2016 Posts: 278
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Posted: 11/06/17 1:59 pm ::: |
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I understand that Gonzaga beat them in their unofficial scrimmage a couple of weeks ago..
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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Posted: 11/06/17 2:01 pm ::: |
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I think six max, and more likely only five. Lots of teams are 'down' from last year and then when they start beating each other up in league it will be hard for those who haven't already proven themselves in OOC. JMO.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5163 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 12/01/17 5:51 pm ::: |
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The month of November has shown that the Pac 12 is once again a good conference, going about 9 deep, but has few real quality wins. This is my ranking on December 1:
1) UCLA (6-1, Best Win - Baylor, Worst Loss - UConn)
2) Oregon (6-1, Texas A&M, Louisville)
3) Stanford (5-3, Belmont, Ohio St.)
4) Oregon St. (3-2, North Dakota, Duke)
5) Arizona St. (5-2, Fresno St., Green Bay)
6) California (4-2, St Mary's, Missouri)
7) USC (7-0, Purdue, None)
8) Colorado (6-1, Miami, North Carolina)
9) Utah (5-1, Purdue, Alabama)
10) Washington St. (3-4, Rutgers, UC Davis)
11) Washington (2-3, Creighton, Idaho St.)
12) Arizona (2-4, Iona, CS Northridge)
Outside of the top 2 teams there isn't a signature win in the conference, but there isn't a loss to an unrated team among the top 7 teams. UCLA and Oregon have separated themselves from the field and look like top 10 teams. Stanford took Ohio St to overtime without Brittany McPhee. Alanna Smith and DiJonai Carrington have emerged as stars and the team is best positioned to move closer to the top two. Oregon St is very young. they have played two tough games and lost both, by 5 at home to Notre Dame and by 7 on the road to Duke. The rest of their non-conference schedule is weak so they won't really get tested until the new year.
Arizona State lost twice in Cancun to Mississippi St and Green Bay. They have one more tough non-conference game at Florida St. So far they look like a top 50, but not a top 25 team. The same can be said of Cal. They lost by 3 at home to Missouri, but more importantly they lost starting guard to a season ending injury. Freshman Kianna Smith has filled in well, but it once again leaves the Bears with no backcourt depth. They also have one more chance for a big non-conference win at Kentucky. USC is a wild card. They are the only undefeated team but they have not played a ranked team. The Trojans next three games are at Loyola Marymount, at Texas A&M and a neutral site game with Middle Tennessee. If they can win all three they could move into the top half of the conference.
Colorado blew a large lead at North Carolina or they would also be undefeated. I expect the Buffaloes will upset at least one top team in Boulder, but I doubt they play well enough on the road to climb into the top half. Utah is also much better at home than on the road (altitude helps) but they don't seem to be as good as Colorado. Washington St has been disappointing so far, but their win over Rutgers gives hope that they may be better than they initially showed. Washington is not as bad as feared. New coach Jodi Wynn has the team playing hard and they will win some games. On the other hand Arizona once again looks bad, and while I have no doubt they will pull an upset or two, I see them still residing in the cellar.
The conference should get at least 5 teams into the NCAA tournament. Whether it gets more will depend on how the teams separate themselves during the conference schedule. Over .500 gives you a very good chance, at .500 you may need a win over UCLA or Oregon, and below .500 will be tough. There won't be a 6-12 team making it like Cal did last season.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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Posted: 12/03/17 2:38 am ::: |
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pretty accurate I'd say. I'm kinda disappointed in the level of play. Still we haven't lost too many that we should have won except for the bottomish teams. But also not much in the way of signature wins other than UCLA - Baylor...and that one a lot of people are putting an asterisk by. Stanford came close but no cigar. I suspect A&M isn't as good as some thought so maybe that win by Oregon isn't as outstanding as it looks either. Looking forward to what conference play will bring. I think it'll be pretty competitive from top to close to bottom.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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patsweetpat
Joined: 14 Jul 2010 Posts: 2313 Location: Culver City, CA
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Posted: 12/04/17 9:04 am ::: |
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myrtle wrote: |
But also not much in the way of signature wins other than UCLA - Baylor...and that one a lot of people are putting an asterisk by. |
Sigh. None of those people better be on the flippin' tournament selection committee.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5163 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 12/29/17 7:51 pm ::: |
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Time to get things started. Cal versus USC starting in less than an hour. I hope that Haas has a nice crowd. The Oregon schools already won but Washington continues to show they aren't a total pushover. Hoping for triple OT down on the farm.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5163 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 01/19/18 7:33 pm ::: |
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The Pac 12 heads into the middle third of the season with very little decided. Oregon (6-0) appears to have established itself as the #1 team, and was given the fourth #1 seed in the first in the initial release of the top 16 by the NCAA. Stanford (5-1) sits in second, but due to injuries and a very difficult non-conference schedule isn't even ranked in the top 25. UCLA (4-2) is tied for third with Cal and Oregon St, but was given a 3 seed for now by the NCAA. Cal is ranked 21 in one poll and unranked in the other and is the third highest Pac 12 team in the RPI. Oregon St is ranked in both polls but is only #71 in the RPI. Utah (4-3) and Arizona St are now tied for sixth thanks to the Utes upset victory today. USC (3-3) sits in eighth. All 8 teams have a good opportunity to make the NCAA tournament if they are able to finish at .500. or perhaps 8-10.
This weekend's games in southern California between Cal, Stanford, USC and UCLA and the home and home series between the Oregon schools will go a long way toward determining which teams will be competing for the title, which teams will be fighting for a first round bye in the Pac 12 tourney and which teams might be left fighting for an NCAA bid.
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5163 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 01/27/18 3:04 am ::: |
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Midway point of the Pac 12 season
Oregon -------- 8-1 (RPI - 6)
UCLA ---------- 7-2 (8)
Stanford ------ 7-2 (22)
Oregon St ---- 6-3 (41)
California ------6-3 (24)
Arizona St -----5-4 (34)
Utah ---------- 5-4 (78)
USC ----------- 4-5 (47)
Colorado ------ 2-7 (139)
Washington St 2-7 (76)
Washington --- 1-8 (136)
Arizona -------- 1-8 (280)
The problem with just looking at the standings is that the schedule is not balanced. The next breakdown shows the win - loss - games remaining against the top 3, 4-8, and bottom 4.
School ---------Top 3___ 4-8 ___ Bottom 4
Oregon -------- 1-0-2___ 3-1-4 ___ 4-0-3
UCLA ---------- 1-2-1___ 4-0-5 ___ 2-0-3
Stanford ------ 1-1-1___ 3-1-4 ___ 3-0.4
Oregon St ---- 1-2-2___ 2-1-3____ 3-0-4
California ------ 0-2-3___ 2-1-3 ___ 4-0-3
Arizona St ----- 1-2-2___ 2-2-3 ___ 2-0-4
Utah ---------- 0-1-3___ 1-3-2 ____ 4-0-4
USC ----------- 0-3-3___ 2-2-3 ___ 2-0-3
Colorado ------ 0-2-2___ 0-3-4 ___ 2-2-2
Washington St 0-2-3___ 0-4-4 ___ 2-1-2
Washington --- 0-3-2___ 0-3-5 ___ 1-2-2
Arizona -------- 0-2-3 ___ 0-5-4 ___ 1-1-2
Breaking down the standings this way better shows the relative quality of the records. UCLA has the toughest schedule of the top 3 because Oregon doesn't play at Stanford. Cal is the only team in the top 6 that hasn't beaten a top 3 team yet. No team in the bottom 4 has beaten one of the top 8 teams.
Oregon and UCLA both look destined to host the first 2 rounds of the NCAA tournament, and Stanford could join them with a Pac 12 Tourney victory. OSU, ASU and Cal all look likely to make the NCAA, but could be seeded anywhere from 5 to 10 depending on how they finish. Even though Utah is a game ahead of USC, the Trojans are definitely in better position to get a seventh bid. The Utes will need get to at least 10 wins, or make a run in the Pac 12 tourney to get a look; USC can probably get in at 8-10.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5163 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 02/25/18 11:04 pm ::: |
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The Pac 12 regular season finished up today
Final Standings
Oregon 16-2
Stanford 14-3
Oregon St 14-4
UCLA 14-4
California 11-7
Arizona St 10-8
USC 9-9
Utah 8-10
Colorado 5-13
Washington St 3-15
Arizona 2-16
Washington 1-17
Notes:1) The final game between Stanford and Washington St was cancelled
2) Oregon St wins the tiebreaker to get the #3 seed in the conference tournament
The league went remarkably according to form with only three games all season where a team beat someone that was more than 2 spots higher in the standings. USC beat Oregon St and both ASU and Cal beat Stanford, all with the benefit of a home crowd.
The Pac 12 Tournament will start Thursday March 1 at 11:30am. If anyone is going to be in Seattle please drop me a PM if you would like to meet up.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9673
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LitePal
Joined: 08 Sep 2005 Posts: 613
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Posted: 02/26/18 11:04 am ::: |
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Oregon St's tiebreaker means a potential rematch with USC after the ugly allegations against the fans.
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bcdawg04
Joined: 12 Apr 2016 Posts: 569 Location: Seattle
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Posted: 02/26/18 11:08 am ::: |
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You know what would be really cool to see? I would love to see the conference do something to recognize the WSU seniors before their game on Thursday.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5163 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 02/26/18 2:09 pm ::: |
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bcdawg04 wrote: |
You know what would be really cool to see? I would love to see the conference do something to recognize the WSU seniors before their game on Thursday. |
That is a very good idea. The Pac 12 does have a short tribute to each senior at the end of their last game, which I have always enjoyed, but since they missed their Senior Day they should get more. Let me recognize the diverse group here:
KRYSTLE McKENZIE G 5-8 GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA
CAILA HAILEY G 5-10 INGLEWOOD, CA
PINELOPI PAVLOPOULOU G 5-9 ATHENS, GREECE
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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Posted: 02/26/18 2:23 pm ::: |
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bcdawg04 wrote: |
You know what would be really cool to see? I would love to see the conference do something to recognize the WSU seniors before their game on Thursday. |
Thanks for the idea. I'm passing it on to the Stanford coaches as I assume they would know the right people to make it happen. Hopefully it will.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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Coyotes
Joined: 28 Jan 2018 Posts: 1467
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010 Posts: 9673
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Posted: 02/28/18 1:03 am ::: |
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calbearman76 wrote: |
Let me recognize the diverse group here:
KRYSTLE McKENZIE G 5-8 GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA
CAILA HAILEY G 5-10 INGLEWOOD, CA
PINELOPI PAVLOPOULOU G 5-9 ATHENS, GREECE |
Krystle McKenzie is listed on their roster, but they only showed pictures of the other two seniors announcing senior night (and the statistics page doesn't show McKenzie playing any minutes this year). She may have left the team in the pre-season. Maybe she red-shirted this year due to injury, but I don't know if that is possible as she red-shirted already her freshman year.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5163 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 03/01/18 11:39 am ::: |
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tfan wrote: |
calbearman76 wrote: |
Let me recognize the diverse group here:
KRYSTLE McKENZIE G 5-8 GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA
CAILA HAILEY G 5-10 INGLEWOOD, CA
PINELOPI PAVLOPOULOU G 5-9 ATHENS, GREECE |
Krystle McKenzie is listed on their roster, but they only showed pictures of the other two seniors announcing senior night (and the statistics page doesn't show McKenzie playing any minutes this year). She may have left the team in the pre-season. Maybe she red-shirted this year due to injury, but I don't know if that is possible as she red-shirted already her freshman year. |
I didn't realize she hadn't played. I remember from last year that she was supposed to be a big part of the team and then did very little.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5163 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 03/02/18 1:21 am ::: |
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The Pac 12 did a small ceremony for the Washington St seniors, including Krystle McKenzie who was in attendance, before their game with USC. She was injured the whole year.
On a side note, the Pac 12 discontinued their practice of recognizing the seniors after their final game on the video screen in the Arena. Several people mentioned it to me and like me wondered why.
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bcdawg04
Joined: 12 Apr 2016 Posts: 569 Location: Seattle
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Posted: 03/02/18 11:44 am ::: |
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I am also disappointed that they are no longer doing the Senior Send-offs. It was nice, though, that we were able to recognize the WSU seniors. WSU junior Nike McClure made it happen:
A 47-44 Pac-12 tournament loss to USC ends a tough week for the WSU women’s basketball team
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McClure contacted the Pac-12 office this week to ask if the Cougars could honor their senior class before their first round Pac-12 tournament game.
“I really appreciate everything they’ve done for us, and they really deserved that night,” McClure said. “Tragically, we had a moment where they couldn’t celebrate it. And I felt like they really deserved to be recognized for all they’ve done for our university and our program.” |
Hailey, Pavlopoulou, and McKenzie very much deserved that moment. And best wishes to June Daugherty for a speedy recovery.
Boy, that first day can produce some interesting games--who would have thought that the closest game would be the 5-12 matchup? With Collier unavailable due to injury, we basically had Melgoza playing the 1 and the 2. If Wynn can recruit a forward or two...or if we could get Strother off the crutches, look out. Nice to see the Dawgs come out to enjoy yesterday's evening session and playing around for the Simba Cam.
Looking forward to watching Ionescu zipping passes through lanes nobody else can see.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5163 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 03/23/18 11:20 pm ::: |
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Time for one more look at the Pac 12. The conference got 6 teams in the NCAA tournament. USC got left out despite a .500 conference season with a tough schedule (home-and-home against both the Northern California and Oregon teams), no losses to teams seeded lower than 7, and wins over both Oregon St and Arizona St.
As for the 6 teams that made the tournament, only California lost in the first round. Playing without Kristine Anigwe they lost by 6 in a game they were in until the final minute. Arizona St had a comfortable win over Nebraska in the first round and played Texas tough for a half, but eventually fell by 20.
Four teams made the Sweet Sixteen for the third year in a row. Only the ACC, which had 8 teams in the Tourney, also had 4. That included Oregon St who became the first team to ever beat Tennessee at home in an NCAA game (57-0).
So far in the round of 16, the Pac 12 are 2-1. Stanford lost to number 1 seed Louisville in a game where the Cardinal trailed from the middle of the first quarter. Stanford was 6-6 at one point so finishing second in the Pac 12 and reaching the second weekend of the NCAA marked a very successful turnaround. Oregon St backed up its Tennessee upset with an upset of the number 2 team in the country, Baylor. Marie Gulich has shown herself to be the top center in the nation with her play over the past 6 weeks, and outplayed the duo of Kalani Brown and Lauren Cox to get the win. Next up is Louisville.
UCLA also beat a Big 12 team outlasting Texas. The Bruins led most of the game, although the Longhorns took the lead with a quick start in the second half. This was a big win for the senior class who had been so hyped but had been unable to get to the Elite 8. Oregon will play Central Michigan tomorrow to try to get a third team to the final 8.
For the third year in a row the Pac 12 has played much better than their seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Their play makes leaving USC out an even more glaring oversight. Whether they can get a team into the Final Four or not the conference has once again shown its talent and depth.
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PickledGinger
Joined: 04 Oct 2013 Posts: 1370
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Posted: 03/24/18 12:04 am ::: |
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So basically what you’re saying is PAC-12 haters can sit the fuck down.
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patsweetpat
Joined: 14 Jul 2010 Posts: 2313 Location: Culver City, CA
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Posted: 03/24/18 5:49 am ::: |
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calbearman76 wrote: |
Time for one more look at the Pac 12. The conference got 6 teams in the NCAA tournament. USC got left out despite a .500 conference season with a tough schedule (home-and-home against both the Northern California and Oregon teams), no losses to teams seeded lower than 7, and wins over both Oregon St and Arizona St.
As for the 6 teams that made the tournament, only California lost in the first round. Playing without Kristine Anigwe they lost by 6 in a game they were in until the final minute. Arizona St had a comfortable win over Nebraska in the first round and played Texas tough for a half, but eventually fell by 20.
Four teams made the Sweet Sixteen for the third year in a row. Only the ACC, which had 8 teams in the Tourney, also had 4. That included Oregon St who became the first team to ever beat Tennessee at home in an NCAA game (57-0).
So far in the round of 16, the Pac 12 are 2-1. Stanford lost to number 1 seed Louisville in a game where the Cardinal trailed from the middle of the first quarter. Stanford was 6-6 at one point so finishing second in the Pac 12 and reaching the second weekend of the NCAA marked a very successful turnaround. Oregon St backed up its Tennessee upset with an upset of the number 2 team in the country, Baylor. Marie Gulich has shown herself to be the top center in the nation with her play over the past 6 weeks, and outplayed the duo of Kalani Brown and Lauren Cox to get the win. Next up is Louisville.
UCLA also beat a Big 12 team outlasting Texas. The Bruins led most of the game, although the Longhorns took the lead with a quick start in the second half. This was a big win for the senior class who had been so hyped but had been unable to get to the Elite 8. Oregon will play Central Michigan tomorrow to try to get a third team to the final 8.
For the third year in a row the Pac 12 has played much better than their seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Their play makes leaving USC out an even more glaring oversight. Whether they can get a team into the Final Four or not the conference has once again shown its talent and depth. |
Word. The P12 has a ton to be proud of.
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