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Randy



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PostPosted: 02/13/18 7:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I hope you are right and I am wrong and that the Dream can beat them 3 times this summer. I'm just not counting on it.


Nerd2



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PostPosted: 02/13/18 8:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
I hope you are right and I am wrong and that the Dream can beat them 3 times this summer. I'm just not counting on it.


Well, maybe not 3 times. Atlanta got Angel back and hopefully Nicki Collen will be an better coach than Cooper seemed to be. I couldn't get over how disengaged he seemed to be on the bench.


NYL_WNBA_FAN



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PostPosted: 02/13/18 8:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
Hartley/Boyd/L. Allen
Prince/Rodgers
Zelous/R. Allen
Charles/Zahui B
Stokes/Vaughn

This looks at best like a middle of the pack lineup to me. Charles is great of course but needs some help. I love Zellous but she's undersized for the SF and doesn't have an outside shot and is starting to age. Stokes and Vaughn are both kind of place holders. Prince and Rodgers both have shining moments followed by OMG moments. Hartley was better than I expected last year based on what she did (or didn't) in Washington but still not a top PG. Boyd coming back from injuries had lots of ??? before the injuries but now even more. I think I would try to move Sugar and one of Stokes/Vaughn for a more solid piece or a higher draft pick but not sure what/where they would find that piece.


I basically agree that last year’s lineup isn’t going to cut it. I’m assuming/hoping there will be one or two moves because I don’t think Piph and Sugar splitting two-guard time is going to cut it. And playing together, they had very little success. I don’t see that changing this year either.



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Bob Lamm



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PostPosted: 02/13/18 9:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I feel the same way about our 2018 prospects that I have for the last few seasons. Good team, will win plenty of regular-season games, some very obvious flaws, not a championship contender.

Barring any unexpected trades, barring much more from a #10 first-round pick than one would reasonably expect, I see the season riding on various players (mainly younger) who may or may not improve. If quite a few of them do, or if one or two of them improve dramatically, then this could be a much better team than anyone would expect. It's possible. Is it likely? Probably not.

The other big "maybe" for me is the coaching change. Katie Smith will be a head coach for the first time. That's a major challenge. Does she see things in certain players that Bill Laimbeer didn't? Were there suggestions she made that he didn't go for? Can she solve some of the riddles of this roster? I certainly don't know. Is it possible that she can do a much better job with the team than Laimbeer did? It's possible. Is it likely? Probably not.


ClayK



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PostPosted: 02/14/18 10:23 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I agree that Katie Smith as head coach could have an impact on the Liberty.

It's a lot easier to move from assistant to head coach if you're also moving to a new team. But the relationships with players as an assistant can be markedly different than the relationships as a head coach, and can be tough on both sides. (Often, the assistant is the good cop ...)

The other issue is that the team is one year older, and not necessarily one year better. There was an article in ESPN the Magazine about USOC research that showed that women decline at an earlier age in power and speed events than men, and some key basketball skills fit in both categories.

Charles is 29, Rodgers is 28, Prince is 30, Vaughn is 31 -- though none are ancient, the chances of improvement are probably less than the chances of decline.



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Bob Lamm



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PostPosted: 02/14/18 10:29 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
I agree that Katie Smith as head coach could have an impact on the Liberty.

It's a lot easier to move from assistant to head coach if you're also moving to a new team. But the relationships with players as an assistant can be markedly different than the relationships as a head coach, and can be tough on both sides. (Often, the assistant is the good cop ...)

The other issue is that the team is one year older, and not necessarily one year better. There was an article in ESPN the Magazine about USOC research that showed that women decline at an earlier age in power and speed events than men, and some key basketball skills fit in both categories.

Charles is 29, Rodgers is 28, Prince is 30, Vaughn is 31 -- though none are ancient, the chances of improvement are probably less than the chances of decline.


I wrote a detailed post earlier about this. I won't repeat all of it. The team's older players are certainly unlikely to improve. (Though Rodgers could. She had a terrible shooting season in 2017, a real step back.) There are various younger players on the Liberty who could improve. Among them Stokes, Boyd, Hartley, Raincock-Ekunwe (if she's back), and Lindsay Allen.

I'm not saying anyone *will* improve, but it's certainly possible for those I've mentioned.


ClayK



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PostPosted: 02/14/18 12:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Bob Lamm wrote:
ClayK wrote:
I agree that Katie Smith as head coach could have an impact on the Liberty.

It's a lot easier to move from assistant to head coach if you're also moving to a new team. But the relationships with players as an assistant can be markedly different than the relationships as a head coach, and can be tough on both sides. (Often, the assistant is the good cop ...)

The other issue is that the team is one year older, and not necessarily one year better. There was an article in ESPN the Magazine about USOC research that showed that women decline at an earlier age in power and speed events than men, and some key basketball skills fit in both categories.

Charles is 29, Rodgers is 28, Prince is 30, Vaughn is 31 -- though none are ancient, the chances of improvement are probably less than the chances of decline.


I wrote a detailed post earlier about this. I won't repeat all of it. The team's older players are certainly unlikely to improve. (Though Rodgers could. She had a terrible shooting season in 2017, a real step back.) There are various younger players on the Liberty who could improve. Among them Stokes, Boyd, Hartley, Raincock-Ekunwe (if she's back), and Lindsay Allen.

I'm not saying anyone *will* improve, but it's certainly possible for those I've mentioned.


Agreed ... but the key players are probably Charles, Rodgers and Prince, in the sense that they are the best players on the team. Now if Stokes suddenly starts scoring 10-12 a game, that changes, or if Boyd has mastered a three-pointer during her time off. But it seems to me improving roleplayers are less important than declining stars. (Though the older players could get better and the younger ones regress ... you just never know.)



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root_thing



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PostPosted: 02/14/18 2:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Charles and Rodgers are December babies, so they will stay 29 and 28 for the whole season. Prince just turned 30. They're not that far from the supposed peak age of 27, which no one has convincingly proven is true anyway. None of these players have known chronic conditions that can impair performance. None of them showed a decline in effectiveness based on physical issues last season. Rodgers and Prince were mostly hampered by having to share the SG position. Both are much better as starters, while their production falls off dramatically coming off the bench. So let's be real. Any suggestion that Tina, Sugar, and Piph are subject to imminent decline based on age is simply overthinking. The most likely outcome is that these players stay more or less the same. The wildcard is how the players will be affected if Katie Smith uses different systems or assigns them new roles. Since we have no way of knowing this, any such discussion is a waste of time.

The reality is that every year people (including Liberty fans) expect New York to suck or be mediocre and most years they exceed expectations. Why? Because fans primarily look at offense, and they tend to value individual play. The Liberty in recent years have been defense-oriented and they manage to be more than the sum of their parts based on scheme, strategy, and execution. Now, whether Katie Smith can keep this going without Laimbeer is something we'll have to wait and see.



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PostPosted: 02/14/18 4:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
Charles and Rodgers are December babies, so they will stay 29 and 28 for the whole season. Prince just turned 30. They're not that far from the supposed peak age of 27, which no one has convincingly proven is true anyway. None of these players have known chronic conditions that can impair performance. None of them showed a decline in effectiveness based on physical issues last season. Rodgers and Prince were mostly hampered by having to share the SG position. Both are much better as starters, while their production falls off dramatically coming off the bench. So let's be real. Any suggestion that Tina, Sugar, and Piph are subject to imminent decline based on age is simply overthinking. The most likely outcome is that these players stay more or less the same. The wildcard is how the players will be affected if Katie Smith uses different systems or assigns them new roles. Since we have no way of knowing this, any such discussion is a waste of time.

The reality is that every year people (including Liberty fans) expect New York to suck or be mediocre and most years they exceed expectations. Why? Because fans primarily look at offense, and they tend to value individual play. The Liberty in recent years have been defense-oriented and they manage to be more than the sum of their parts based on scheme, strategy, and execution. Now, whether Katie Smith can keep this going without Laimbeer is something we'll have to wait and see.


I agree with all of this. Excellent observations.


Happycappie25



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PostPosted: 02/14/18 9:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
Charles and Rodgers are December babies, so they will stay 29 and 28 for the whole season. Prince just turned 30. They're not that far from the supposed peak age of 27, which no one has convincingly proven is true anyway. None of these players have known chronic conditions that can impair performance. None of them showed a decline in effectiveness based on physical issues last season. Rodgers and Prince were mostly hampered by having to share the SG position. Both are much better as starters, while their production falls off dramatically coming off the bench. So let's be real. Any suggestion that Tina, Sugar, and Piph are subject to imminent decline based on age is simply overthinking. The most likely outcome is that these players stay more or less the same. The wildcard is how the players will be affected if Katie Smith uses different systems or assigns them new roles. Since we have no way of knowing this, any such discussion is a waste of time.

The reality is that every year people (including Liberty fans) expect New York to suck or be mediocre and most years they exceed expectations. Why? Because fans primarily look at offense, and they tend to value individual play. The Liberty in recent years have been defense-oriented and they manage to be more than the sum of their parts based on scheme, strategy, and execution. Now, whether Katie Smith can keep this going without Laimbeer is something we'll have to wait and see.


I agree...but also for that reason I think there is addition by subtraction by breaking up prince and Rodgers...they tried prince at the 1...disaster...hell if the 2 were together more than 10 minutes...disaster...

team was different when Rodgers came off the bench and Hartley held down the 1 and the results showed that...night and day...the record with and without are scary...I don't want to see either go but that looks like that may be for the better.



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J-Spoon



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PostPosted: 02/14/18 10:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think/hope Rodgers will have a better 18 than 17, she was on upward trajectory the last few season, and stumbled in 17, in 18 she will be better IMO whether she is the starter or coming off the bench.

It was discussed in the Minny thread would you do Prince for #12? I like Prince but I would do it. Yes Prince is better than a 12 pick but I think solving the Prince/Rodgers SG spot allowing Rodgers to start where she excelled in 16 and the parts of 17, and Hartley and Zelous to play more at the 2, giving Boyd and L. Allen more time to play at the 1 creates better balance.

Than we can get two decent young players at #10 and #12 to fill out the roster.


UK1996



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PostPosted: 02/14/18 10:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This is completely random, but isn’t Shoni Schimmel still technically under contract? Has she retired officially?



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LibFan25



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PostPosted: 02/14/18 10:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

J-Spoon wrote:
I think/hope Rodgers will have a better 18 than 17, she was on upward trajectory the last few season, and stumbled in 17, in 18 she will be better IMO whether she is the starter or coming off the bench.

It was discussed in the Minny thread would you do Prince for #12? I like Prince but I would do it. Yes Prince is better than a 12 pick but I think solving the Prince/Rodgers SG spot allowing Rodgers to start where she excelled in 16 and the parts of 17, and Hartley and Zelous to play more at the 2, giving Boyd and L. Allen more time to play at the 1 creates better balance.

Than we can get two decent young players at #10 and #12 to fill out the roster.



Rodgers has been inconsistent her whole career, every year i say to myself i think she's gonna be a star, because of her talent. we all know she can shoot and play Defense

maybe it's got to do with everything of what's been going on but im gonna stay optimistic/positive and hope for the best.

my future idea starting lineup this year i would like to see

Boyd
Rodgers
Vivians/Nared
Charles
Stokes

yes i would put the rookie in the fire right away, see how they handle it. if we draft Nurse i would put her at the 2 and Rodgers at the 3. Prince and Zellous will come off the bench to make our bench strong. now i doubt Katie will do that but just an idea to bring up to maximize our team.


Luuuc



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PostPosted: 02/14/18 11:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

UK1996 wrote:
This is completely random, but isn’t Shoni Schimmel still technically under contract? Has she retired officially?

Assuming NY made a qualifying offer I think she would at least have reservationed status



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J-Spoon



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PostPosted: 02/15/18 1:33 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
UK1996 wrote:
This is completely random, but isn’t Shoni Schimmel still technically under contract? Has she retired officially?

Assuming NY made a qualifying offer I think she would at least have reservationed status


If I remember the rules correctly she was suspended last year for the whole season which means

she is technically in the 4th year of her rookie contract, and therefor still under contract with the Liberty if she returns to the W.

I would love a redemption story, and her skill set offers a nice variation on what we already have, but I'm not counting on it, and if she did return she would still have to beat someone out to get an actual roster spot.


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PostPosted: 02/15/18 2:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

toad455 wrote:
At #10 I'd prefer Billings or even Vivians to get a legit SF. I'm still holding out hope we get a post FA.

PG: Boyd/L. Allen
SG: Prince/Rodgers/Hartley
SF: Zellous/draft pick
PF: Charles/Raincock/FA
C: Vaughn/Stokes
Gone: R. Allen/Zahui B.


Raincock-Ekunwe should try and transition to 3 if she primarily plays power forward. She is undersized for a power forward and seems athletic enough for 3. Unless I am being overly influenced by the way she runs the floor with such speed.


Luuuc



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PostPosted: 02/15/18 3:28 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
toad455 wrote:
At #10 I'd prefer Billings or even Vivians to get a legit SF. I'm still holding out hope we get a post FA.

PG: Boyd/L. Allen
SG: Prince/Rodgers/Hartley
SF: Zellous/draft pick
PF: Charles/Raincock/FA
C: Vaughn/Stokes
Gone: R. Allen/Zahui B.


Raincock-Ekunwe should try and transition to 3 if she primarily plays power forward. She is undersized for a power forward and seems athletic enough for 3. Unless I am being overly influenced by the way she runs the floor with such speed.


She's definitely athletic enough. Drawback is lack of an effective jump shot, which becomes quite an issue when one plays away from the paint.



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Happycappie25



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PostPosted: 02/15/18 7:00 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

J-Spoon wrote:
I think/hope Rodgers will have a better 18 than 17, she was on upward trajectory the last few season, and stumbled in 17, in 18 she will be better IMO whether she is the starter or coming off the bench.

It was discussed in the Minny thread would you do Prince for #12? I like Prince but I would do it. Yes Prince is better than a 12 pick but I think solving the Prince/Rodgers SG spot allowing Rodgers to start where she excelled in 16 and the parts of 17, and Hartley and Zelous to play more at the 2, giving Boyd and L. Allen more time to play at the 1 creates better balance.

Than we can get two decent young players at #10 and #12 to fill out the roster.


Personally I'd rather package prince or Rodgers with 10 and try to move up a spot or two to have more of a pick of the litter...But that's just me...Prince for 12 straight is an undersell but between EuroBasket and Injuries Prince's GP is a question mark...so its not a terrible deal...would like a TCC or a token lower round future pick just to balance it more but I too would give prince up for the 12

EXCEPT the optics would be horrible...(fans would yell FIRE SALE in a crowded STH meeting) so would have to be done after the draft when a name is tagged with the pick.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 02/15/18 8:00 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How about Clarendon+16 for L. Allen and No. 10?


ClayK



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PostPosted: 02/15/18 10:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I would agree that the Liberty stars are very likely to continue to perform at a high level -- my point was, however, to expect improvement is probably expecting too much.

So the question would be what has to happen for the Liberty to make the jump from pretty good team to title contender, and I think the answer would have to come from a roleplayer like Boyd taking a huge leap forward, or a draft pick turning into a star.

And lurking in the background is the hard truth that the older a player, the more likely an injury.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 02/15/18 10:53 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
They're not that far from the supposed peak age of 27, which no one has convincingly proven is true anyway


It's been pretty convincingly shown that on average players peak at age 27. However, individuals can vary greatly. Nikki Teasley was washed up by age 28. Sheryl Swoopes won the first of her three MVP awards at age 29. Trying to apply a general theory to a specific individual is a crime against statistics.



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PostPosted: 02/15/18 11:13 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
root_thing wrote:
They're not that far from the supposed peak age of 27, which no one has convincingly proven is true anyway


It's been pretty convincingly shown that on average players peak at age 27. However, individuals can vary greatly. Nikki Teasley was washed up by age 28. Sheryl Swoopes won the first of her three MVP awards at age 29. Trying to apply a general theory to a specific individual is a crime against statistics.


Agreed.

To note one relevant example, I feel that Shavonte Zellous (who is currently about 31 1/2 years old) gave the Liberty much more in 2017 than in 2016. She was on the court for more minutes so her stats are generally better, but I'm not making this argument based on stats. In 2017, she provided far more leadership on the court as New York struggled all season to figure out who should play point guard. I'd call that "improvement."


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PostPosted: 02/15/18 11:48 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
How about Clarendon+16 for L. Allen and No. 10?


You don’t like Clarendon? She’s one of Voepel’s top candidates to take Whalen’s spot on Team USA. What are you wanting at #10 that you’d be willing to dispose of Clarendon to move up 6 spots?



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Randy



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PostPosted: 02/15/18 12:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
Randy wrote:
How about Clarendon+16 for L. Allen and No. 10?


You don’t like Clarendon? She’s one of Voepel’s top candidates to take Whalen’s spot on Team USA. What are you wanting at #10 that you’d be willing to dispose of Clarendon to move up 6 spots?


I like Clarendon just fine, but we may not be able to keep her, Tip, Angel, Elizabeth and Dantas next season due to the salary cap. Not sure whose contract ends when but I would not be surprised if Tip and or Laysia are FA's next year, along with Angel, while Williams and Dantas will be RFA's. Plus, her name has come up a few times as a trade candidate.

As far as Team USA goes, I don't really care much who makes the team.


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PostPosted: 02/15/18 12:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

You may not care for the fanfare of Team USA, but she wouldn’t make the team unless she had that level of merit. It did look like she was going hard in practice.

I think Whalen’s spot is Diggins’ to lose, but you never know.

ATL doesn’t strike me as a team that would have cap issues, not enough so to worry about Clarendon. Let’s worry about winning instead.



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