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The Gabby Delusion and Nurse Dilution

 
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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 01/17/18 9:29 pm    ::: The Gabby Delusion and Nurse Dilution Reply Reply with quote

The WNBA forum seems pretty settled that this year's senior class will be a very strong one, Gabby Williams will go in the first four, maybe even #1, and that Kia Nurse will be somewhere far behind in the draft order.

Just as a matter of their college performances, which are still ongoing, I don't quite understand this. I think Williams has been over-hyped by illusions if not delusions about her skill set, while Nurse's contributions have been diluted in the public mind. Let's just focus on what these two have done in college. I'm not going to make any draft predictions; others may.

Let's start with the fact that the 6-0 Nurse is one inch taller than the 5-11 Williams and just as solidly built. Nurse has been much less injury prone. Williams had two ACL tears and repairs in high school; Nurse, as far as I recall, has been injury free.

Williams can jump higher and is a better rebounder. No doubt. But after that, the illusions and dilutions begin to blur.

Let's get to the most important skill point: Nurse is an excellent outside shooter and Williams stinks. For their careers to date, Nurse on 3pt shots is 215-505 for 42.6%, whereas Williams is a pathetic 1-11 for 9.1%. Right now, Nurse is #4 in all of D1 in 3pt% at 48.1%. As to current year overall shooting on UConn, Nurse is leading UConn in eFG% at 69.7 while Williams is fifth at 58.1. Nurse is again first in TS% at 72.2 while Williams is again fifth at 60.5.

How about scoring? Nurse has scored 1413 points in her UConn career to date; Williams, somewhat less at 1353. In their careers they have drawn about the same number of fouls, Nurse 293 and Williams 305, but Nurse has shot FT's at a much higher percentage, 78% to 65%. Currently on the team, Nurse is second in scoring at 15.0 PPG; Williams is sixth at 10.8 PPG.

Frankly, much of Williams scoring and high FG% numbers are simply due to the fact that 90% of her makes are layups against short and nonathletic players -- an illusion. She not only has no shot from outside the 3pt arc, she has has very little touch from 15-21 feet either. Most of the jumpers she makes are from 12 feet or less. Nurse can shoot and score at high percentages from anywhere on the court.

What about Williams' vaunted defense? I think that again is a somewhat hyped delusion while Nurse's skills are relatively diluted in public perception. But not in Geno's; he often puts Nurse on the opponent's top scorer.

Blocks as defense? No difference this season: Williams has eight and Nurse has seven -- compared to UConn's real shot blockers, 34 and 32 for Stevens and Collier.

Steals as defense? Yes, Williams has the most on UConn this season at 41 compared to Nurse's 16. Williams gets a lot of these by cheating off her inside man or zone position to steal interior passes from sloppy guards. But Williams' off-ball risk-taking defense has downsides: she's out of position if she doesn't steal the ball, gets back-doored, and leads the team in turnovers with 47 to Nurse's 24.

What about Williams' vaunted passing? Nurse has more assists for their careers, 382 to 360, and with a higher A/TO, 2.03 to 1.65.

So what can Nurse play in the WNBA? 1 yes; 2 yes; 3 yes; 4 no; 5 no. She's a steady producer, not often having a great or a horrible game. I think she'd produce a regular 8-10 points, 3-4 rebounds, and 2-3 assists as a SG/W who can also cover the point.

What can Williams play? 1 no; 2 no; 3 only of you can use a SF who has no shot from outside 12 feet; 4 yes, but at 5-11, repeat 5-11; 5 no. Some say she could be the next Alyssa Thomas, another outside brickster, but Thomas is three inches taller.
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PostPosted: 01/18/18 12:39 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I read in the WNBA thread people proposing comparisons between Gabby Williams and Alyssa Thomas or Tamika Catchings. Since the purpose of the game of basketball is to put the ball into the basket, I looked at how the college careers of those three players compare as to three-point shooting.

The 6-1 Catchings was 122-366 for 33.3%.

The 6-2 Thomas was 19-71 for 26.8%.

The 5-11 Williams (after 3.4 seasons) is 1-11 for 9.1%.

I leave it to the reader to determine whether these comparisons, at least as to three-point shooting, are illusion, delusion, allusion, confusion, effusion or collusion.
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PostPosted: 01/18/18 2:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


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PostPosted: 01/18/18 12:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I’d take Nurse for the Sun in a second. The Sun needs better guard rotation. They have two excellent starting guards (Jasmine Thomas and Courtney Williams), a 1 great game outta 10 Alex Bentley and a practically useless Rachel Banham.
Nurse would be a big upgrade over either Bentley or Banham. And I don’t see last years draft pick Leticia Romero even making it all the way through training camp before she gets cut.


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PostPosted: 01/18/18 12:19 pm    ::: Re: The Gabby Delusion and Nurse Dilution Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
The WNBA forum seems pretty settled that this year's senior class will be a very strong one, Gabby Williams will go in the first four, maybe even #1, and that Kia Nurse will be somewhere far behind in the draft order.

Just as a matter of their college performances, which are still ongoing, I don't quite understand this. I think Williams has been over-hyped by illusions if not delusions about her skill set, while Nurse's contributions have been diluted in the public mind. Let's just focus on what these two have done in college. I'm not going to make any draft predictions; others may.

Let's start with the fact that the 6-0 Nurse is one inch taller than the 5-11 Williams and just as solidly built. Nurse has been much less injury prone. Williams had two ACL tears and repairs in high school; Nurse, as far as I recall, has been injury free.

Williams can jump higher and is a better rebounder. No doubt. But after that, the illusions and dilutions begin to blur.

Let's get to the most important skill point: Nurse is an excellent outside shooter and Williams stinks. For their careers to date, Nurse on 3pt shots is 215-505 for 42.6%, whereas Williams is a pathetic 1-11 for 9.1%. Right now, Nurse is #4 in all of D1 in 3pt% at 48.1%. As to current year overall shooting on UConn, Nurse is leading UConn in eFG% at 69.7 while Williams is fifth at 58.1. Nurse is again first in TS% at 72.2 while Williams is again fifth at 60.5.

How about scoring? Nurse has scored 1413 points in her UConn career to date; Williams, somewhat less at 1353. In their careers they have drawn about the same number of fouls, Nurse 293 and Williams 305, but Nurse has shot FT's at a much higher percentage, 78% to 65%. Currently on the team, Nurse is second in scoring at 15.0 PPG; Williams is sixth at 10.8 PPG.

Frankly, much of Williams scoring and high FG% numbers are simply due to the fact that 90% of her makes are layups against short and nonathletic players -- an illusion. She not only has no shot from outside the 3pt arc, she has has very little touch from 15-21 feet either. Most of the jumpers she makes are from 12 feet or less. Nurse can shoot and score at high percentages from anywhere on the court.

What about Williams' vaunted defense? I think that again is a somewhat hyped delusion while Nurse's skills are relatively diluted in public perception. But not in Geno's; he often puts Nurse on the opponent's top scorer.

Blocks as defense? No difference this season: Williams has eight and Nurse has seven -- compared to UConn's real shot blockers, 34 and 32 for Stevens and Collier.

Steals as defense? Yes, Williams has the most on UConn this season at 41 compared to Nurse's 16. Williams gets a lot of these by cheating off her inside man or zone position to steal interior passes from sloppy guards. But Williams' off-ball risk-taking defense has downsides: she's out of position if she doesn't steal the ball, gets back-doored, and leads the team in turnovers with 47 to Nurse's 24.

What about Williams' vaunted passing? Nurse has more assists for their careers, 382 to 360, and with a higher A/TO, 2.03 to 1.65.

So what can Nurse play in the WNBA? 1 yes; 2 yes; 3 yes; 4 no; 5 no. She's a steady producer, not often having a great or a horrible game. I think she'd produce a regular 8-10 points, 3-4 rebounds, and 2-3 assists as a SG/W who can also cover the point.

What can Williams play? 1 no; 2 no; 3 only of you can use a SF who has no shot from outside 12 feet; 4 yes, but at 5-11, repeat 5-11; 5 no. Some say she could be the next Alyssa Thomas, another outside brickster, but Thomas is three inches taller.


Ive yet to hear one person say Gabby will go #1 in the WNBA forum . The consensus has slipped her out of the lottery to somewhere between 4-7 at this time . But i agree your analysis is spot on , Delusion & Dilution .



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PostPosted: 01/18/18 12:19 pm    ::: Re: The Gabby Delusion and Nurse Dilution Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
The WNBA forum seems pretty settled that this year's senior class will be a very strong one, Gabby Williams will go in the first four, maybe even #1, and that Kia Nurse will be somewhere far behind in the draft order.

Just as a matter of their college performances, which are still ongoing, I don't quite understand this. I think Williams has been over-hyped by illusions if not delusions about her skill set, while Nurse's contributions have been diluted in the public mind. Let's just focus on what these two have done in college. I'm not going to make any draft predictions; others may.

Let's start with the fact that the 6-0 Nurse is one inch taller than the 5-11 Williams and just as solidly built. Nurse has been much less injury prone. Williams had two ACL tears and repairs in high school; Nurse, as far as I recall, has been injury free.

Williams can jump higher and is a better rebounder. No doubt. But after that, the illusions and dilutions begin to blur.

Let's get to the most important skill point: Nurse is an excellent outside shooter and Williams stinks. For their careers to date, Nurse on 3pt shots is 215-505 for 42.6%, whereas Williams is a pathetic 1-11 for 9.1%. Right now, Nurse is #4 in all of D1 in 3pt% at 48.1%. As to current year overall shooting on UConn, Nurse is leading UConn in eFG% at 69.7 while Williams is fifth at 58.1. Nurse is again first in TS% at 72.2 while Williams is again fifth at 60.5.

How about scoring? Nurse has scored 1413 points in her UConn career to date; Williams, somewhat less at 1353. In their careers they have drawn about the same number of fouls, Nurse 293 and Williams 305, but Nurse has shot FT's at a much higher percentage, 78% to 65%. Currently on the team, Nurse is second in scoring at 15.0 PPG; Williams is sixth at 10.8 PPG.

Frankly, much of Williams scoring and high FG% numbers are simply due to the fact that 90% of her makes are layups against short and nonathletic players -- an illusion. She not only has no shot from outside the 3pt arc, she has has very little touch from 15-21 feet either. Most of the jumpers she makes are from 12 feet or less. Nurse can shoot and score at high percentages from anywhere on the court.

What about Williams' vaunted defense? I think that again is a somewhat hyped delusion while Nurse's skills are relatively diluted in public perception. But not in Geno's; he often puts Nurse on the opponent's top scorer.

Blocks as defense? No difference this season: Williams has eight and Nurse has seven -- compared to UConn's real shot blockers, 34 and 32 for Stevens and Collier.

Steals as defense? Yes, Williams has the most on UConn this season at 41 compared to Nurse's 16. Williams gets a lot of these by cheating off her inside man or zone position to steal interior passes from sloppy guards. But Williams' off-ball risk-taking defense has downsides: she's out of position if she doesn't steal the ball, gets back-doored, and leads the team in turnovers with 47 to Nurse's 24.

What about Williams' vaunted passing? Nurse has more assists for their careers, 382 to 360, and with a higher A/TO, 2.03 to 1.65.

So what can Nurse play in the WNBA? 1 yes; 2 yes; 3 yes; 4 no; 5 no. She's a steady producer, not often having a great or a horrible game. I think she'd produce a regular 8-10 points, 3-4 rebounds, and 2-3 assists as a SG/W who can also cover the point.

What can Williams play? 1 no; 2 no; 3 only of you can use a SF who has no shot from outside 12 feet; 4 yes, but at 5-11, repeat 5-11; 5 no. Some say she could be the next Alyssa Thomas, another outside brickster, but Thomas is three inches taller.




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PostPosted: 01/18/18 12:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

One reason to keep this conversation at this level is that it highlights the difference between being a good/exceptional college player and having the same success in the WNBA.

I have doubts about Nurse being able to defend quicker wings in the WNBA, and I have doubts about Williams finding a way to score -- but both are very, very good in college, and in a way, it's unfair to throw shade on what they're doing now by pointing out their potential weaknesses at the next level.

The same is true going from high school to college. Often girls who are high school stars are considered disappointments if they don't do the same in college, but they are much different environments and success in one does not necessarily predict success in the other.

For example, a few years ago we named Ali Patberg as the MaxPreps High School Player of the Year over, among others, Katie Lou Samuelson. I heard indirectly that a lot of influential people were upset at the choice and thought it was dumb, but my rationale was that Patberg had a better senior year in high school than Samuelson did. It wasn't about potential or international play or whatever, but about that season of sport. Of course Samuelson was likely to have the better future, but the award wasn't about that.

This year, the team I coach played a very good high school team from Alaska (Dimond). The post player, Alissa Pili, is about 5-11, but she's a monster at the high school level; she won't be the same threat if she goes Power 5 in college because she'll be undersized, but unless she's facing a Power 5 post in high school, she's pretty much unstoppable. Their point guard is a very good high school guard, but too small to be really effective in college, and their shooter is tall enough to be a problem in high school but likely not at the next level.

So should we judge those three players by what they do now, and what their team is, or by what they might or might not do at the next level?

Should we focus on Nurse and Williams as WNBA prospects or enjoy their college careers?

Of course we can do both, but I think sometimes the pendulum swings too far in the direction of worrying about potential and the future rather than giving credit for what's happening in front of our eyes.



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PostPosted: 01/18/18 12:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
I read in the WNBA thread people proposing comparisons between Gabby Williams and Alyssa Thomas or Tamika Catchings.


lmfao



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PostPosted: 01/18/18 2:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:


I have doubts about Nurse being able to defend quicker wings in the WNBA, and I have doubts about Williams finding a way to score -- but both are very, very good in college, and in a way, it's unfair to throw shade on what they're doing now by pointing out their potential weaknesses at the next level.



agree on both these. I know Kia is a really good defender at the college level, but I'm not convinced she has the quickness to do so in the W. Still I see her as a solid rotation player because of her all-around game and she plays so 'smart'. I also think Gabby will find a good home in the W because of her instincts and athleticism, which are truly off the charts. I also agree we should enjoy them as college players because they are fun to watch, even for us non-UConn fans. At the same time I do look forward to seeing how they progress as they go into the W. It's a big step up and will likely take some time, but I think both will be there.



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PostPosted: 01/18/18 3:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

IMO all of this missing on one thing which is harder to measure but both of Nurse and Williams got more of than other players and it's called heart and effort levels. While by itself it is note nought without certain skills, hight, etc both Williams and Nurse have an abundance of skills and yes, they are coming from UConn which is the closest to a pro team in demands and preparations. Will they be stars at the WNBA? Probably not but I can see both as a 6-7 player in a rotation of a title contender.


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PostPosted: 01/18/18 5:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

My guess is both are destined to be W reserves, w/ Nurse having more value and probably the longer, albeit non-distinguished, career.



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PostPosted: 01/19/18 1:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


I saw Nurse and Williams stand near each other during the recent Texas game and my thought was that Nurse didn't look taller than Williams. Then there's wingspan, which I think Williams wins.

But I would put Williams as too small to play WNBA 4, and she's probably gonna have to pick up an outside shot real fast if she wants to make it as a three. I say probably because Tamera Young went a number of years without taking any significant number of threes. She was [13-40, 3-13, 13-47] her first 3 years, then for the next 6 years combined she was 1 for 11, before going 25 for 73 last yar.


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 1:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
linkster wrote:
I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


I saw Nurse and Williams stand near each other during the recent Texas game and my thought was that Nurse didn't look taller than Williams. Then there's wingspan, which I think Williams wins.

But I would put Williams as too small to play WNBA 4, and she's probably gonna have to pick up an outside shot real fast if she wants to make it as a three. I say probably because Tamera Young went a number of years without taking any significant number of threes. She was [13-40, 3-13, 13-47] her first 3 years, then for the next 6 years combined she was 1 for 11, before going 25 for 73 last yar.


Williams has a pretty good mid range shot and can elevate enough to shoot it over 4's & 5's. Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand. And most discussing Williams jere seem to think that players only play offense. Now I'll admit that no one is going to be getting lots of minutes as a defensive player but Williams has dominated against some of the best players in college the last 3 years and last I looked that's where the WNBA gets it's players.

Williams likely will have a fine WNBA career and her style of play will put asses in seats. And the bottom line is that the WNBA needs asses in seats more than it needs arc shooters.


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 1:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

double post


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 9:06 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
tfan wrote:
linkster wrote:
I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


I saw Nurse and Williams stand near each other during the recent Texas game and my thought was that Nurse didn't look taller than Williams. Then there's wingspan, which I think Williams wins.

But I would put Williams as too small to play WNBA 4, and she's probably gonna have to pick up an outside shot real fast if she wants to make it as a three. I say probably because Tamera Young went a number of years without taking any significant number of threes. She was [13-40, 3-13, 13-47] her first 3 years, then for the next 6 years combined she was 1 for 11, before going 25 for 73 last yar.


Williams has a pretty good mid range shot and can elevate enough to shoot it over 4's & 5's. Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand. And most discussing Williams jere seem to think that players only play offense. Now I'll admit that no one is going to be getting lots of minutes as a defensive player but Williams has dominated against some of the best players in college the last 3 years and last I looked that's where the WNBA gets it's players.

Williams likely will have a fine WNBA career and her style of play will put asses in seats. And the bottom line is that the WNBA needs asses in seats more than it needs arc shooters.


Define fine.



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PostPosted: 01/20/18 9:57 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
tfan wrote:
linkster wrote:
I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


I saw Nurse and Williams stand near each other during the recent Texas game and my thought was that Nurse didn't look taller than Williams. Then there's wingspan, which I think Williams wins.

But I would put Williams as too small to play WNBA 4, and she's probably gonna have to pick up an outside shot real fast if she wants to make it as a three. I say probably because Tamera Young went a number of years without taking any significant number of threes. She was [13-40, 3-13, 13-47] her first 3 years, then for the next 6 years combined she was 1 for 11, before going 25 for 73 last yar.


Williams has a pretty good mid range shot and can elevate enough to shoot it over 4's & 5's. Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand. And most discussing Williams jere seem to think that players only play offense. Now I'll admit that no one is going to be getting lots of minutes as a defensive player but Williams has dominated against some of the best players in college the last 3 years and last I looked that's where the WNBA gets it's players.

Williams likely will have a fine WNBA career and her style of play will put asses in seats. And the bottom line is that the WNBA needs asses in seats more than it needs arc shooters.


So are you suggesting people will fill seats to watch players play defense instead of hitting shots ? Shocked



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PostPosted: 01/20/18 11:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Anyone else got this flu? Its not fun. I think they will both be fine, just as I think Wilson will be fine. All these players will have a learning curve. There is so much verbiage about some players over other players but really, which have been consistent against top competition for most of their careers. A lot of teams play a lot of cupcakes and don't measure themselves frequently enough against the top teams. I would be more inclined to worry about a player who has not played with much discipline. As with all, it will come down to need, fit and getting lucky enough to be in a good situation.


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 12:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I don't see Williams going till the 2nd round, and it may be late then.


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 12:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ladyvol777 wrote:
I don't see Williams going till the 2nd round, and it may be late then.


A disastrous injury is the only way she approaches that depth.



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PostPosted: 01/20/18 7:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand.


It seems like most of them can do both.

Possible starting small forwards 2018:

Maya Moore - Lynx - 464 - 1200 38.7% from three
Elena Della Donne - Mystics - 180 - 471 38.2%
Kahleah Copper - Sky - 24 - 64 37.5%
Shekinna Stricklen - Sun - 287 - 788 36.4%
Alysha Clark - Storm - 121 - 346 35%
Aerial Powers - Wings - 45 - 129 34.9%
Marissa Coleman - Fever - 303 - 879 34.5
Monique Curry - Mercury - 267 - 783 34.1%
Alex Montgomery - Aces - 94 - 276 34.1%
Karima Christmas-Kelly - Wings - 174 - 540 32.2%
Essence Carson - Sparks - 158 - 499 31.7%
Shavonte Zellous - Liberty - 143 - 470 30.4%
Tamera Young - Dream - 55 - 184 29.9%


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 9:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
linkster wrote:
tfan wrote:
linkster wrote:
I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


I saw Nurse and Williams stand near each other during the recent Texas game and my thought was that Nurse didn't look taller than Williams. Then there's wingspan, which I think Williams wins.

But I would put Williams as too small to play WNBA 4, and she's probably gonna have to pick up an outside shot real fast if she wants to make it as a three. I say probably because Tamera Young went a number of years without taking any significant number of threes. She was [13-40, 3-13, 13-47] her first 3 years, then for the next 6 years combined she was 1 for 11, before going 25 for 73 last yar.


Williams has a pretty good mid range shot and can elevate enough to shoot it over 4's & 5's. Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand. And most discussing Williams jere seem to think that players only play offense. Now I'll admit that no one is going to be getting lots of minutes as a defensive player but Williams has dominated against some of the best players in college the last 3 years and last I looked that's where the WNBA gets it's players.

Williams likely will have a fine WNBA career and her style of play will put asses in seats. And the bottom line is that the WNBA needs asses in seats more than it needs arc shooters.


So are you suggesting people will fill seats to watch players play defense instead of hitting shots ? Shocked


No,


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PostPosted: 01/20/18 9:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
linkster wrote:
Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand.


It seems like most of them can do both.

Possible starting small forwards 2018:

Maya Moore - Lynx - 464 - 1200 38.7% from three
Elena Della Donne - Mystics - 180 - 471 38.2%
Kahleah Copper - Sky - 24 - 64 37.5%
Shekinna Stricklen - Sun - 287 - 788 36.4%
Alysha Clark - Storm - 121 - 346 35%
Aerial Powers - Wings - 45 - 129 34.9%
Marissa Coleman - Fever - 303 - 879 34.5
Monique Curry - Mercury - 267 - 783 34.1%
Alex Montgomery - Aces - 94 - 276 34.1%
Karima Christmas-Kelly - Wings - 174 - 540 32.2%
Essence Carson - Sparks - 158 - 499 31.7%
Shavonte Zellous - Liberty - 143 - 470 30.4%
Tamera Young - Dream - 55 - 184 29.9%


Here's the reality from last year

In 34 games Kaleah Copper made 10 three's
In 33 games Alysha Clark made 22 three's
In 34 games Marissa Coleman made 28 three's
In 22 games Monique Curry made 25 three's
In 34 games Alex Montgomery made 23 three's
In 34 games Christmas-Kelly made 26 three's
In 24 games Essense Carson made 9 three's
In 34 Games Zellous made 15 three's
In 11 games Young made 3 three's

Not exactly adding much to their teams' scoring. So outside of Moore and Della Donne none of the other teams would lose much in the way of 3 pt scoring if Williams started in the place of those you listed and never shot a three all season.


tfan



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PostPosted: 01/21/18 5:17 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:


Not exactly adding much to their teams' scoring. So outside of Moore and Della Donne none of the other teams would lose much in the way of 3 pt scoring if Williams started in the place of those you listed and never shot a three all season.


If someone can't hit threes - or can only hit jump shots from 15 feet or less, the defender can sag off them and be available to help on other players.


#Occasionalwnbafan



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PostPosted: 01/21/18 9:06 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
linkster wrote:
tfan wrote:
linkster wrote:
I think this topic should be taken back to the W forum. Where and if players belong in the W has nothing to do with NCAA basketball.

I challenge your statement that Nurse is taller than Williams. I have no idea what their heights are but for 3 years I have watched them line up for the national anthem. UConn's players line up by height and Williams has always lined up on the taller side of Nurse. Listed heights are notoriously wrong. The anthem evidence is much more reliable evidence.


I saw Nurse and Williams stand near each other during the recent Texas game and my thought was that Nurse didn't look taller than Williams. Then there's wingspan, which I think Williams wins.

But I would put Williams as too small to play WNBA 4, and she's probably gonna have to pick up an outside shot real fast if she wants to make it as a three. I say probably because Tamera Young went a number of years without taking any significant number of threes. She was [13-40, 3-13, 13-47] her first 3 years, then for the next 6 years combined she was 1 for 11, before going 25 for 73 last yar.


Williams has a pretty good mid range shot and can elevate enough to shoot it over 4's & 5's. Most wings can either hit 3's or else are slashing drivers. I'd bet that those who can do both can be counted on one hand. And most discussing Williams jere seem to think that players only play offense. Now I'll admit that no one is going to be getting lots of minutes as a defensive player but Williams has dominated against some of the best players in college the last 3 years and last I looked that's where the WNBA gets it's players.

Williams likely will have a fine WNBA career and her style of play will put asses in seats. And the bottom line is that the WNBA needs asses in seats more than it needs arc shooters.


So are you suggesting people will fill seats to watch players play defense instead of hitting shots ? Shocked


I would say her style of play is exciting, she plays with effort, she's fast and can jump, and always has a few jaw dropping moments. I'm not sure where Williams will play at the next level, if she's an undersized post I think she'll have a fine career, if she can move to the wing, I think she'll be a future All Star, All WNBA team type of player, and a future WNBA DPOY.
GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 7:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I posted this topic in the NCAA forum because I am primarily interested in comparing the supposed "gap" between Williams and Nurse as college players, who also happen to be on the same team. Secondarily, this alleged gap may influence WNBA draft positions, but they are also influenced by individual WNBA team needs.

My hypothesis is that the gap is not nearly what a lot of people seem to assume, when you look at actual data without being influenced by what I consider to be over-hyped hyperbole about Williams' unique if not supernatural "athleticism". In fact, the statistical and performance gap is arguably in Nurse's favor.

Since posting my analysis in the OP, UConn has had two games, against over-matched AAC opponents Tulsa and Temple. In those games:

-- Williams took 17 shots, 16 layup attempts and one eight foot float shot. She made eight of these shots for a two game average of 8 PPG and a FG% of 47%. This lowered her season scoring average to 10.7 PPG, still sixth on the team.

-- Nurse took 24 shots, 15 of them three-point shots. She made 15-24 overall and 9-15 on the threes, for a two game average of 20.5 PPG and a FG% of 64%. This raised her season scoring average to 15.6 PPG, second to KLS's 16.8. As of today, Nurse is #1 in all of D1 in 3FG% at 50.0%.

In those two games, Williams had 8 rebounds, 16 assists and 8 steals; Nurse had 6, 8 and 2.

Compared to last season, Williams' scoring average has dropped from 14.3 PPG to 10.7, while Nurse's has increased from 12.7 PPG to 15.6.

On the injury front, Williams has been removed from games because of migraine headaches and hip flexor pain; Nurse has been healthy.

Finally, as to height -- the original fake news subject in the world -- these two players are close, but it's interesting that no one has ever claimed that Williams is 6-0, when there must be a great marketing temptation to do so. Here is the UConn roster photo, in which the front row players are clearly seated in order of increasing height away from Geno in the center. Williams is sitting between the 5-8 Coombs and Nurse:



I think Nurse has a "taller" torso, neck and head, while Williams has longer legs and arms. I've been right next to both on the court, and they are very close in height, but I did think Nurse was a smidge taller.

Which player has a statistical gap in her favor? If it's Nurse, and you wanted a SF or wing kind of player, does Williams really have some sort of "athleticism" that is so rare and so unique that it catapults Williams not merely ahead of Nurse, but so far ahead of Nurse that there is a big gap in Williams' favor? I dissent.
Nixtreefan



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 7:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I like this discussion and makes one think about verbiage. I have never thought there was much difference, they just bring different attributes. Nurse is getting some wide open 3s and she is knocking them down which is what will be expected of her in the W. Williams creates havoc and a primary distributor at the high post, which is also an asset. What I noticed from this is Walker cannot be 6' 1" if Gordon is 6' Laughing


Conway Gamecock



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PostPosted: 01/28/18 12:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:

I leave it to the reader to determine whether these comparisons, at least as to three-point shooting, are illusion, delusion, allusion, confusion, effusion or collusion.



I prefer to consider them extrusion: it came out of their rears......


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