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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Ladyvol777
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012 Posts: 4053
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Posted: 01/08/18 11:37 am ::: |
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Wow, Baylor is a 7-seed. They need a tougher schedule.
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012 Posts: 4053
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8234 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 01/08/18 11:38 am ::: Re: The Field of 64 |
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pilight wrote: |
Last In: Virginia, Utah, Michigan State, Ball State
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Yet, they are seeded 10th or 11th. Does that mean every team seeded equal to or below them is a conference winner? |
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/08/18 11:51 am ::: Re: The Field of 64 |
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GlennMacGrady wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
Last In: Virginia, Utah, Michigan State, Ball State
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Yet, they are seeded 10th or 11th. Does that mean every team seeded equal to or below them is a conference winner? |
A projected conference winner, yes
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63831
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Posted: 01/08/18 12:48 pm ::: |
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If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?
In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them?
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/08/18 12:55 pm ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?
In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them? |
It's generally difficult to get a high seed with no top 25 wins and an SOS outside the top 100, especially coming from a conference outside the top five in CRPI.
However, you're correct that the committee is likely to be influenced by hype over substance.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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ucbart
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 2819 Location: New York
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Posted: 01/08/18 2:05 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?
In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them? |
It's generally difficult to get a high seed with no top 25 wins and an SOS outside the top 100, especially coming from a conference outside the top five in CRPI.
However, you're correct that the committee is likely to be influenced by hype over substance. |
WOW! Baylor has 0 Top 25 wins and a SOS outside of 100? That is just irresponsible scheduling, Kim.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/08/18 2:43 pm ::: |
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ucbart wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?
In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them? |
It's generally difficult to get a high seed with no top 25 wins and an SOS outside the top 100, especially coming from a conference outside the top five in CRPI.
However, you're correct that the committee is likely to be influenced by hype over substance. |
WOW! Baylor has 0 Top 25 wins and a SOS outside of 100? That is just irresponsible scheduling, Kim. |
Their only top 50 win is the one over Stanford. That and the UCLA loss are Baylor's only games against the RPI top 50.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012 Posts: 4241 Location: Minnesota
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Posted: 01/08/18 5:02 pm ::: |
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The SpaceJunkie 64 Algorithm says:
Code: |
1. UConn Notre Dame Miss St Oregon
2. Louisville South Carolina Texas Ohio St
3. Rutgers Florida St Tennessee Missouri
4. UCLA Green Bay Arizona St Iowa
5. Marquette Maryland Texas A&M Villanova
6. Syracuse South Flordia Duke Stanford
7. Baylor West Virginia Quinnipiac FGCU
8. DePaul Ball St California Michigan
9. Western Kentucky Oklahoma St LSU Georgia
10. South Dakota St Princeton Virginia Michigan St
11. Central Michigan Creighton NC State Northern Colorado
12. New Mexico Houston St. John's Belmont
13. UC Davis Mercer Gonzaga IUPUI
14. Duquesne American Central Arkansas Hartford
15. James Madison Drake High Point Little Rock
16. Robert Morris Bethune-Cookman Jackson St CSU Bakersfield
Last Four In: St. John's, Houston, NC State, Creighton
First Four Out: Georgia Tech, Buffalo, USC, Butler |
Last edited by SpaceJunkie on 01/09/18 7:54 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012 Posts: 4241 Location: Minnesota
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Posted: 01/08/18 5:04 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?
In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them? |
It's generally difficult to get a high seed with no top 25 wins and an SOS outside the top 100, especially coming from a conference outside the top five in CRPI.
However, you're correct that the committee is likely to be influenced by hype over substance. |
If Baylor gets treated like Maryland was last year, they are probably at best a 3-seed or at worst a 4-seed as of right now.
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012 Posts: 4241 Location: Minnesota
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Posted: 01/08/18 5:09 pm ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team? |
According to my formula (which predicts bubble teams well as is it had Cal and UNI in last year) right now Minnesota is approximately my 16th team out.
If Minnesota didn't lose to Nebraska, they'd probably be my 8th or 9th team out
If Minnesota didn't lose to both San Diego and Nebraska, they'd probably be in my last four in.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/08/18 6:05 pm ::: |
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SpaceJunkie wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?
In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them? |
It's generally difficult to get a high seed with no top 25 wins and an SOS outside the top 100, especially coming from a conference outside the top five in CRPI.
However, you're correct that the committee is likely to be influenced by hype over substance. |
If Baylor gets treated like Maryland was last year, they are probably at best a 3-seed or at worst a 4-seed as of right now. |
Maryland had nine top 50 wins last season. Baylor could win out and not have that many. Baylor's non-con SOS is even worse than Maryland's was last year, and the B12 is rated worse than last year's B10.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5160 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 01/09/18 4:50 am ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?
In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them? |
It's generally difficult to get a high seed with no top 25 wins and an SOS outside the top 100, especially coming from a conference outside the top five in CRPI.
However, you're correct that the committee is likely to be influenced by hype over substance. |
The real issue for Baylor is how they do from here on out. They have two games each with Texas. West Virginia, Oklahoma St and Oklahoma, all currently top 50 teams (I believe OK St was 53 when these numbers were calculated, but I show them now at #50). They will also likely play two more in the Big 12 Conference tournament. If they go 8-2 in those games no one will care about their weak schedule and they will get at least a 3 seed, maybe a 2. If they win the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament they will get at least a 2. The weak schedule will only hurt Baylor if they slide to third or fourth in the Big 12. In that case the schedule will become a problem and Baylor could get a lower seed than their poll ranking would suggest.
I would also note that the resumes of Baylor and Oklahoma St are nearly identical, and yet OK St is a 4 and Baylor is a 7. Based on the calculation, I believe these are the differences : OK St beat Oklahoma and lost to Texas, Baylor hasn't played either yet (+.25), OK St beat #16 UCLA, Baylor beat #27 Stanford (+1), Baylor and OK St haven't played yet (+1). The last one is because Baylor is #20 and OK St is #53. This is not a criticism of the formula; just an acknowledgement that any numerical calculation at this point in time is bound to have anomalies.
Finally a question. Looking at Quinnipiac, they are shown as a 9 seed which would indicate they have a positive score, but when I look at there record they seem to have no wins over top 25 teams, no losses against sub-50 teams and are 2-2 vs. teams that are 26-50. They also have no more games against teams in the top 100. Is this just a calculation problem or am I missing something?
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/09/18 10:49 pm ::: |
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calbearman76 wrote: |
Finally a question. Looking at Quinnipiac, they are shown as a 9 seed which would indicate they have a positive score, but when I look at there record they seem to have no wins over top 25 teams, no losses against sub-50 teams and are 2-2 vs. teams that are 26-50. They also have no more games against teams in the top 100. Is this just a calculation problem or am I missing something? |
For some reason my parser picked up two schedule points for them. They should be at zero, which is a #11 seed.
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I ain't got a home
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/15/18 8:27 pm ::: |
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The NCAA elected not to publish the women's nitty gritty report today, so no projection. The men's report is available, of course.
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I ain't got a home
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012 Posts: 4241 Location: Minnesota
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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pilight
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63831
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Posted: 01/22/18 12:59 pm ::: |
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Welcome to the real world.... as far as Baylor goes. ND a one seed.... how long will that notion last? They don't have the feel of a credible #1 seed.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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Posted: 01/22/18 1:02 pm ::: |
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Unfortunately not many do.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66993 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/22/18 1:06 pm ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
Welcome to the real world.... as far as Baylor goes. ND a one seed.... how long will that notion last? They don't have the feel of a credible #1 seed. |
Who would you put there ahead of them?
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I ain't got a home
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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Posted: 01/22/18 1:30 pm ::: |
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I think SC should be higher. It seems they get pushed down more than other teams. BTW I was talking about recent rankings not above.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63831
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Posted: 01/22/18 1:35 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
Welcome to the real world.... as far as Baylor goes. ND a one seed.... how long will that notion last? They don't have the feel of a credible #1 seed. |
Who would you put there ahead of them? |
I'm not sure of that either. Seems like there's a separation between the Top 3 seeds and the next 9 seeds.
Baylor's only loss is on the road in a game when they didn't have their second best player and their coach. That's something you can't program into a simple algorithm. If Baylor was undefeated, would anybody be doubting them as a #1 seed?
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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