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pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 57578
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PostPosted: 01/08/18 11:13 am    ::: The Field of 64 Reply Reply with quote



Multiple Bid Conferences
8 P12
7 ACC
7 SEC
6 B10
4 B12
3 BEast
2 AAC
2 MAC
2 Horizon

Just Missed: Creghton, Miami (FL), Butler, Houston
Last In: Virginia, Utah, Michigan State, Ball State

How did I arrive at this?

First, I gave two points for a win over a top 25 RPI team and one for a win over a 26-50 RPI team.

Then, I subtracted one point for a loss to a 26-50 team, and two for a loss against a sub-50 team.

I then added points based on the remaining schedule: .5 for a game remaining against a top 25 RPI team and .25 for a game against a 26-50 RPI team.

Teams more than one game under .500 in conference are not allowed in.

Many teams were moved within the same seed to prevent teams in the same conference from meeting before the conference finals or to meet the new rules about conferences with top four seeds.

Ties went in favor of the team with the most points on current wins and losses. If still tied then better RPI.

The cut off for getting in as an at large was 0.25 points. It took 11.75 points to get a #1 seed.



_________________
Make lots of noise
Kiss lots of boys
Or kiss lots of girls
If that's something you're into
When the straight and narrow
Gets a little too straight
Roll up a joint, or don't
Just follow your arrow
Wherever it points, yeah
Follow your arrow
Wherever it points
Ladyvol777



Joined: 02 Jul 2013
Posts: 228



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PostPosted: 01/08/18 11:23 am    ::: Re: The Field of 64 Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:


Multiple Bid Conferences
8 P12
7 ACC
7 SEC
6 B10
4 B12
3 BEast
2 AAC
2 MAC
2 Horizon

Just Missed: Creghton, Miami (FL), Butler, Houston
Last In: Virginia, Utah, Michigan State, Ball State

How did I arrive at this?

First, I gave two points for a win over a top 25 RPI team and one for a win over a 26-50 RPI team.

Then, I subtracted one point for a loss to a 26-50 team, and two for a loss against a sub-50 team.

I then added points based on the remaining schedule: .5 for a game remaining against a top 25 RPI team and .25 for a game against a 26-50 RPI team.

Teams more than one game under .500 in conference are not allowed in.

Many teams were moved within the same seed to prevent teams in the same conference from meeting before the conference finals or to meet the new rules about conferences with top four seeds.

Ties went in favor of the team with the most points on current wins and losses. If still tied then better RPI.

The cut off for getting in as an at large was 0.25 points. It took 11.75 points to get a #1 seed.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish will not be a # 1


Fighting Artichoke



Joined: 12 Dec 2012
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PostPosted: 01/08/18 11:37 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wow, Baylor is a 7-seed. They need a tougher schedule.


Fighting Artichoke



Joined: 12 Dec 2012
Posts: 3603



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PostPosted: 01/08/18 11:37 am    ::: Re: The Field of 64 Reply Reply with quote

Ladyvol777 wrote:
pilight wrote:


Multiple Bid Conferences
8 P12
7 ACC
7 SEC
6 B10
4 B12
3 BEast
2 AAC
2 MAC
2 Horizon

Just Missed: Creghton, Miami (FL), Butler, Houston
Last In: Virginia, Utah, Michigan State, Ball State

How did I arrive at this?

First, I gave two points for a win over a top 25 RPI team and one for a win over a 26-50 RPI team.

Then, I subtracted one point for a loss to a 26-50 team, and two for a loss against a sub-50 team.

I then added points based on the remaining schedule: .5 for a game remaining against a top 25 RPI team and .25 for a game against a 26-50 RPI team.

Teams more than one game under .500 in conference are not allowed in.

Many teams were moved within the same seed to prevent teams in the same conference from meeting before the conference finals or to meet the new rules about conferences with top four seeds.

Ties went in favor of the team with the most points on current wins and losses. If still tied then better RPI.

The cut off for getting in as an at large was 0.25 points. It took 11.75 points to get a #1 seed.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish will not be a # 1


Who do you have replacing them?

Notre Dame will play Tennessee soon and Louisville on Thursday.


GlennMacGrady



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 5101
Location: Heisenberg


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PostPosted: 01/08/18 11:38 am    ::: Re: The Field of 64 Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:

Last In: Virginia, Utah, Michigan State, Ball State


Yet, they are seeded 10th or 11th. Does that mean every team seeded equal to or below them is a conference winner?
pilight



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Posts: 57578
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PostPosted: 01/08/18 11:51 am    ::: Re: The Field of 64 Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
pilight wrote:

Last In: Virginia, Utah, Michigan State, Ball State


Yet, they are seeded 10th or 11th. Does that mean every team seeded equal to or below them is a conference winner?


A projected conference winner, yes



_________________
Make lots of noise
Kiss lots of boys
Or kiss lots of girls
If that's something you're into
When the straight and narrow
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Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: 01/08/18 12:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?

In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them?



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pilight



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PostPosted: 01/08/18 12:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?

In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them?


It's generally difficult to get a high seed with no top 25 wins and an SOS outside the top 100, especially coming from a conference outside the top five in CRPI.

However, you're correct that the committee is likely to be influenced by hype over substance.



_________________
Make lots of noise
Kiss lots of boys
Or kiss lots of girls
If that's something you're into
When the straight and narrow
Gets a little too straight
Roll up a joint, or don't
Just follow your arrow
Wherever it points, yeah
Follow your arrow
Wherever it points
ucbart



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 1356
Location: New York


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PostPosted: 01/08/18 2:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?

In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them?


It's generally difficult to get a high seed with no top 25 wins and an SOS outside the top 100, especially coming from a conference outside the top five in CRPI.

However, you're correct that the committee is likely to be influenced by hype over substance.


WOW! Baylor has 0 Top 25 wins and a SOS outside of 100? That is just irresponsible scheduling, Kim.


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 57578
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PostPosted: 01/08/18 2:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ucbart wrote:
pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?

In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them?


It's generally difficult to get a high seed with no top 25 wins and an SOS outside the top 100, especially coming from a conference outside the top five in CRPI.

However, you're correct that the committee is likely to be influenced by hype over substance.


WOW! Baylor has 0 Top 25 wins and a SOS outside of 100? That is just irresponsible scheduling, Kim.


Their only top 50 win is the one over Stanford. That and the UCLA loss are Baylor's only games against the RPI top 50.



_________________
Make lots of noise
Kiss lots of boys
Or kiss lots of girls
If that's something you're into
When the straight and narrow
Gets a little too straight
Roll up a joint, or don't
Just follow your arrow
Wherever it points, yeah
Follow your arrow
Wherever it points
SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 3531
Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 01/08/18 5:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The SpaceJunkie 64 Algorithm says:

Code:
 1. UConn             Notre Dame       Miss St           Oregon
 2. Louisville        South Carolina   Texas             Ohio St
 3. Rutgers           Florida St       Tennessee         Missouri
 4. UCLA              Green Bay        Arizona St        Iowa
 5. Marquette         Maryland         Texas A&M         Villanova
 6. Syracuse          South Flordia    Duke              Stanford
 7. Baylor            West Virginia    Quinnipiac        FGCU
 8. DePaul            Ball St          California        Michigan
 9. Western Kentucky  Oklahoma St      LSU               Georgia
10. South Dakota St   Princeton        Virginia          Michigan St
11. Central Michigan  Creighton        NC State          Northern Colorado
12. New Mexico        Houston          St. John's        Belmont
13. UC Davis          Mercer           Gonzaga           IUPUI
14. Duquesne          American         Central Arkansas  Hartford     
15. James Madison     Drake            High Point        Little Rock
16. Robert Morris     Bethune-Cookman  Jackson St        CSU Bakersfield

Last Four In:   St. John's, Houston, NC State, Creighton
First Four Out: Georgia Tech, Buffalo, USC, Butler




Last edited by SpaceJunkie on 01/09/18 7:54 pm; edited 1 time in total
SpaceJunkie



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Posts: 3531
Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 01/08/18 5:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?

In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them?


It's generally difficult to get a high seed with no top 25 wins and an SOS outside the top 100, especially coming from a conference outside the top five in CRPI.

However, you're correct that the committee is likely to be influenced by hype over substance.


If Baylor gets treated like Maryland was last year, they are probably at best a 3-seed or at worst a 4-seed as of right now.


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 3531
Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 01/08/18 5:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?


According to my formula (which predicts bubble teams well as is it had Cal and UNI in last year) right now Minnesota is approximately my 16th team out.
If Minnesota didn't lose to Nebraska, they'd probably be my 8th or 9th team out
If Minnesota didn't lose to both San Diego and Nebraska, they'd probably be in my last four in.


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 57578
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PostPosted: 01/08/18 6:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?

In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them?


It's generally difficult to get a high seed with no top 25 wins and an SOS outside the top 100, especially coming from a conference outside the top five in CRPI.

However, you're correct that the committee is likely to be influenced by hype over substance.


If Baylor gets treated like Maryland was last year, they are probably at best a 3-seed or at worst a 4-seed as of right now.


Maryland had nine top 50 wins last season. Baylor could win out and not have that many. Baylor's non-con SOS is even worse than Maryland's was last year, and the B12 is rated worse than last year's B10.



_________________
Make lots of noise
Kiss lots of boys
Or kiss lots of girls
If that's something you're into
When the straight and narrow
Gets a little too straight
Roll up a joint, or don't
Just follow your arrow
Wherever it points, yeah
Follow your arrow
Wherever it points
calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3124
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 01/09/18 4:50 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
If Michigan St is a #10 seed, where is my team?

In the real world, Baylor is a top seed. In the clunky algorithm world, I guess they're a #7 seed. Where does Charlie put them?


It's generally difficult to get a high seed with no top 25 wins and an SOS outside the top 100, especially coming from a conference outside the top five in CRPI.

However, you're correct that the committee is likely to be influenced by hype over substance.


The real issue for Baylor is how they do from here on out. They have two games each with Texas. West Virginia, Oklahoma St and Oklahoma, all currently top 50 teams (I believe OK St was 53 when these numbers were calculated, but I show them now at #50). They will also likely play two more in the Big 12 Conference tournament. If they go 8-2 in those games no one will care about their weak schedule and they will get at least a 3 seed, maybe a 2. If they win the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament they will get at least a 2. The weak schedule will only hurt Baylor if they slide to third or fourth in the Big 12. In that case the schedule will become a problem and Baylor could get a lower seed than their poll ranking would suggest.

I would also note that the resumes of Baylor and Oklahoma St are nearly identical, and yet OK St is a 4 and Baylor is a 7. Based on the calculation, I believe these are the differences : OK St beat Oklahoma and lost to Texas, Baylor hasn't played either yet (+.25), OK St beat #16 UCLA, Baylor beat #27 Stanford (+1), Baylor and OK St haven't played yet (+1). The last one is because Baylor is #20 and OK St is #53. This is not a criticism of the formula; just an acknowledgement that any numerical calculation at this point in time is bound to have anomalies.

Finally a question. Looking at Quinnipiac, they are shown as a 9 seed which would indicate they have a positive score, but when I look at there record they seem to have no wins over top 25 teams, no losses against sub-50 teams and are 2-2 vs. teams that are 26-50. They also have no more games against teams in the top 100. Is this just a calculation problem or am I missing something?


pilight



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PostPosted: 01/09/18 10:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Finally a question. Looking at Quinnipiac, they are shown as a 9 seed which would indicate they have a positive score, but when I look at there record they seem to have no wins over top 25 teams, no losses against sub-50 teams and are 2-2 vs. teams that are 26-50. They also have no more games against teams in the top 100. Is this just a calculation problem or am I missing something?


For some reason my parser picked up two schedule points for them. They should be at zero, which is a #11 seed.



_________________
Make lots of noise
Kiss lots of boys
Or kiss lots of girls
If that's something you're into
When the straight and narrow
Gets a little too straight
Roll up a joint, or don't
Just follow your arrow
Wherever it points, yeah
Follow your arrow
Wherever it points
pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 01/15/18 8:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The NCAA elected not to publish the women's nitty gritty report today, so no projection. The men's report is available, of course.



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Make lots of noise
Kiss lots of boys
Or kiss lots of girls
If that's something you're into
When the straight and narrow
Gets a little too straight
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SpaceJunkie



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PostPosted: 01/15/18 9:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

They must've given the WBB reports the holiday off. Confused
How do you parse the Nitty Gritty pdf? I don't know how to do it, and me doing it manually for my formula takes too much time. Smile


pilight



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PostPosted: 01/15/18 9:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
They must've given the WBB reports the holiday off. Confused
How do you parse the Nitty Gritty pdf? I don't know how to do it, and me doing it manually for my formula takes too much time. Smile


I do it with excel. This site: https://pdftables.com/ does a marvelous job of converting pdf tables.



_________________
Make lots of noise
Kiss lots of boys
Or kiss lots of girls
If that's something you're into
When the straight and narrow
Gets a little too straight
Roll up a joint, or don't
Just follow your arrow
Wherever it points, yeah
Follow your arrow
Wherever it points
pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 01/22/18 12:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote



Multiple Bid Conferences
8 ACC
7 P12
7 SEC
6 B12
5 B10
2 BEast
2 AAC
2 MAC
2 A10

Just Missed: Alabama, Brown, Nebraska, Villanova
Last In: Michigan State, Kansas State, Duquesne, TCU

How did I arrive at this?

First, I gave two points for a win over a top 25 RPI team and one for a win over a 26-50 RPI team.

Then, I subtracted one point for a loss to a 26-50 team, and two for a loss against a sub-50 team.

I then added points based on the remaining schedule: .5 for a game remaining against a top 25 RPI team and .25 for a game against a 26-50 RPI team.

Teams more than one game under .500 in conference are not allowed in.

Many teams were moved within the same seed to prevent teams in the same conference from meeting before the conference finals or to meet the new rules about conferences with top four seeds. In this instance four teams swapped seeds to avoid this. LSU moved up one and Virginia moved down one.

Ties went in favor of the team with the most points on current wins and losses. If still tied then better RPI.

The cut off for getting in as an at large was -1.25 points. It took 13.75 points to get a #1 seed.



_________________
Make lots of noise
Kiss lots of boys
Or kiss lots of girls
If that's something you're into
When the straight and narrow
Gets a little too straight
Roll up a joint, or don't
Just follow your arrow
Wherever it points, yeah
Follow your arrow
Wherever it points
Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 49467



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 12:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Welcome to the real world.... as far as Baylor goes. ND a one seed.... how long will that notion last? They don't have the feel of a credible #1 seed.



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Nixtreefan



Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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PostPosted: 01/22/18 1:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Unfortunately not many do.


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 57578
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PostPosted: 01/22/18 1:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
Welcome to the real world.... as far as Baylor goes. ND a one seed.... how long will that notion last? They don't have the feel of a credible #1 seed.


Who would you put there ahead of them?



_________________
Make lots of noise
Kiss lots of boys
Or kiss lots of girls
If that's something you're into
When the straight and narrow
Gets a little too straight
Roll up a joint, or don't
Just follow your arrow
Wherever it points, yeah
Follow your arrow
Wherever it points
Nixtreefan



Joined: 14 Nov 2012
Posts: 2145



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 1:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think SC should be higher. It seems they get pushed down more than other teams. BTW I was talking about recent rankings not above.


Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 49467



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 1:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Shades wrote:
Welcome to the real world.... as far as Baylor goes. ND a one seed.... how long will that notion last? They don't have the feel of a credible #1 seed.


Who would you put there ahead of them?


I'm not sure of that either. Seems like there's a separation between the Top 3 seeds and the next 9 seeds.

Baylor's only loss is on the road in a game when they didn't have their second best player and their coach. That's something you can't program into a simple algorithm. If Baylor was undefeated, would anybody be doubting them as a #1 seed?



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