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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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 Posted: 12/13/17 8:51 pm ::: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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This post from another thread:
| cthskzfn wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| It’s amazing how my expectations have been set so low over the past year that my faith in humanity can be buoyed by people crossing what has got to be one of the lowest conceivable bars of basic human decency: “don’t put the pedophiles in charge.” |
In a land where a pathological lying, racist, sexual predator grifter gets the oval office via russian propaganda bots, racist vote suppression, and fbi malfeasance, while losing the popular vote by 3,000,000+ votes. |
...and tonight's celebration of the Dem win in AL led me to think in a New Way:
May we allow ourselves to look at the senate win in Alabama to be a kind of Silver Lining to the Trump election?
I was thinking this way:
Trump's win set enough women on edge that they became emboldened to finally act out publicly against the sexual predation, especially by prominent, powerful men
(....leads to)
A groundswell of action across the country, in many fields of endeavor
(....leads to)
Women being brave enough to point fingers at a scumbag like Moore
(....leads to)
Alabamans picking a Democratic senator, as a referendum on the general idiocy that Republicans otherwise would railroad through in a place like Alabama.
I have long believed there are no mistakes in The Universe; I have decided that the Good Ol' USA will ultimately benefit from Trump's election in ways we cannot yet perceive....until now. I'd like to think this might be the first of those 'ways'. Silver Linings. (Please God!?)
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 12/13/17 10:23 pm ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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| Howee wrote: |
This post from another thread:
| cthskzfn wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| It’s amazing how my expectations have been set so low over the past year that my faith in humanity can be buoyed by people crossing what has got to be one of the lowest conceivable bars of basic human decency: “don’t put the pedophiles in charge.” |
In a land where a pathological lying, racist, sexual predator grifter gets the oval office via russian propaganda bots, racist vote suppression, and fbi malfeasance, while losing the popular vote by 3,000,000+ votes. |
...and tonight's celebration of the Dem win in AL led me to think in a New Way:
May we allow ourselves to look at the senate win in Alabama to be a kind of Silver Lining to the Trump election?
I was thinking this way:
Trump's win set enough women on edge that they became emboldened to finally act out publicly against the sexual predation, especially by prominent, powerful men
(....leads to)
A groundswell of action across the country, in many fields of endeavor
(....leads to)
Women being brave enough to point fingers at a scumbag like Moore
(....leads to)
Alabamans picking a Democratic senator, as a referendum on the general idiocy that Republicans otherwise would railroad through in a place like Alabama.
I have long believed there are no mistakes in The Universe; I have decided that the Good Ol' USA will ultimately benefit from Trump's election in ways we cannot yet perceive....until now. I'd like to think this might be the first of those 'ways'. Silver Linings. (Please God!?) |
Or, as one commentator put it last night, the Republicans could have nominated a potted plant and won by 20 pts last night. Instead they nominated the one person on the planet capable of losing to a Democrat - an old clown who had scraped by in his own elections, had been thrown out of office not once but twice, was an avowed biggot and strident anti-homosexual, who had no respect for women, and who believed that pre-emancipation 1850s were the good ol days. Even with all of that he probably would have won anyhow had it not become public that he stalked the malls trying to pick up 8th grade girls and force them into various sex acts.
And even with all of that, 48% of voters chose him anyhow.
That doesn't really reassure me of anything good or decent.
First, I don't think this had anything to do with Jones, anti-Trump feelings, a women's uprising, a populist uprising, a Democratic uprising, or any other favorable trend transferable to other elections. This isn't like the Virginia legislature and governor election.
This was about a typically unrepresentative primary process selecting probably the most flawed candidate for anything in my lifetime. In the end, a tiny plurality of Bamans just couldn't stomach voting for him.
And it should be remembered that a group larger than the margin of victory still refused to vote for the Democrat and instead voted for Jeff Sessions or Nick Saban or somebody else. Those people were making it clear that they were still reliable GOP votes, but just would not vote for Moore, as recommended by Sen Shelby. And that means a majority still voted Republican. And by the way, this was a special election. There was no reason for those people to go to the polls except to have their Republican but non-Moore vote counted. They were making a statement that they were not voting for Jones either. I assume most conservatives who wouldn't vote for Moore simply didn't vote, but that block cared enough to drive to the polls and get their non-Moore and non-Democrat vote recorded.
The change in vote count in the Senate is a good thing for three years. But I don't see any encouraging broader trend in yesterday's results.
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Howee
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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| Posted: 12/14/17 9:38 am ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
Reply |
|
| Howee wrote: |
This post from another thread:
| cthskzfn wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| It’s amazing how my expectations have been set so low over the past year that my faith in humanity can be buoyed by people crossing what has got to be one of the lowest conceivable bars of basic human decency: “don’t put the pedophiles in charge.” |
In a land where a pathological lying, racist, sexual predator grifter gets the oval office via russian propaganda bots, racist vote suppression, and fbi malfeasance, while losing the popular vote by 3,000,000+ votes. |
...and tonight's celebration of the Dem win in AL led me to think in a New Way:
May we allow ourselves to look at the senate win in Alabama to be a kind of Silver Lining to the Trump election?
I was thinking this way:
Trump's win set enough women on edge that they became emboldened to finally act out publicly against the sexual predation, especially by prominent, powerful men
(....leads to)
A groundswell of action across the country, in many fields of endeavor
(....leads to)
Women being brave enough to point fingers at a scumbag like Moore
(....leads to)
Alabamans picking a Democratic senator, as a referendum on the general idiocy that Republicans otherwise would railroad through in a place like Alabama.
I have long believed there are no mistakes in The Universe; I have decided that the Good Ol' USA will ultimately benefit from Trump's election in ways we cannot yet perceive....until now. I'd like to think this might be the first of those 'ways'. Silver Linings. (Please God!?) |
"whatever gets you through the night...." 
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Stonington_QB
Joined: 05 Jul 2013
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Location: Siege Perilous
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| Posted: 12/14/17 10:03 am ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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| Howee wrote: |
I was thinking this way:
Trump's win set enough women on edge that they became emboldened to finally act out publicly against the sexual predation, especially by prominent, powerful men |
So Franken's sexual assault, Conyers' use of taxpayer money to silence his accusers, Lauer's use of an electric lock wired to his desk (by NBC) to lock women in the room with him, and generally unacceptable behavior by several other people isn't what emboldened these victims, it's Trump being elected that set these women off. You know, as if he got 0% of the vote from women in the first place. Sure, let's go with that.
| Howee wrote: |
(....leads to)
A groundswell of action across the country, in many fields of endeavor
(....leads to)
Women being brave enough to point fingers at a scumbag like Moore
(....leads to)
Alabamans picking a Democratic senator, as a referendum on the general idiocy that Republicans otherwise would railroad through in a place like Alabama. |
Or... could have something to do with the fact that Moore had a track record of questionable behavior, regardless of the fact that some of his accusers may not have been completely honest. Combine that with his ridiculous political grandstanding, like riding in on a horse to vote, or by telling people that God was on his side, and you have a candidate so unlikeable that he would have been a toxic asset at best. Maybe that's why they picked Jones? Do you REALLY think he's going to get re-elected?
| Howee wrote: |
| I have long believed there are no mistakes in The Universe; I have decided that the Good Ol' USA will ultimately benefit from Trump's election in ways we cannot yet perceive....until now. I'd like to think this might be the first of those 'ways'. Silver Linings. (Please God!?) |
There you go... use God for your political aspirations. How'd that work out for Roy Moore?
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: 12/14/17 11:09 am ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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| Stonington_QB wrote: |
| Lauer's use of an electric lock wired to his desk (by NBC) to lock women in the room with him, |
I think that was to keep people from interrupting from outside the office.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
Posts: 16355
Location: Chicago
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| Posted: 12/14/17 11:34 am ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
Reply |
|
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| Howee wrote: |
This post from another thread:
| cthskzfn wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| It’s amazing how my expectations have been set so low over the past year that my faith in humanity can be buoyed by people crossing what has got to be one of the lowest conceivable bars of basic human decency: “don’t put the pedophiles in charge.” |
In a land where a pathological lying, racist, sexual predator grifter gets the oval office via russian propaganda bots, racist vote suppression, and fbi malfeasance, while losing the popular vote by 3,000,000+ votes. |
...and tonight's celebration of the Dem win in AL led me to think in a New Way:
May we allow ourselves to look at the senate win in Alabama to be a kind of Silver Lining to the Trump election?
I was thinking this way:
Trump's win set enough women on edge that they became emboldened to finally act out publicly against the sexual predation, especially by prominent, powerful men
(....leads to)
A groundswell of action across the country, in many fields of endeavor
(....leads to)
Women being brave enough to point fingers at a scumbag like Moore
(....leads to)
Alabamans picking a Democratic senator, as a referendum on the general idiocy that Republicans otherwise would railroad through in a place like Alabama.
I have long believed there are no mistakes in The Universe; I have decided that the Good Ol' USA will ultimately benefit from Trump's election in ways we cannot yet perceive....until now. I'd like to think this might be the first of those 'ways'. Silver Linings. (Please God!?) |
Or, as one commentator put it last night, the Republicans could have nominated a potted plant and won by 20 pts last night. Instead they nominated the one person on the planet capable of losing to a Democrat - an old clown who had scraped by in his own elections, had been thrown out of office not once but twice, was an avowed biggot and strident anti-homosexual, who had no respect for women, and who believed that pre-emancipation 1850s were the good ol days. Even with all of that he probably would have won anyhow had it not become public that he stalked the malls trying to pick up 8th grade girls and force them into various sex acts.
And even with all of that, 48% of voters chose him anyhow.
That doesn't really reassure me of anything good or decent.
First, I don't think this had anything to do with Jones, anti-Trump feelings, a women's uprising, a populist uprising, a Democratic uprising, or any other favorable trend transferable to other elections. This isn't like the Virginia legislature and governor election.
This was about a typically unrepresentative primary process selecting probably the most flawed candidate for anything in my lifetime. In the end, a tiny plurality of Bamans just couldn't stomach voting for him.
And it should be remembered that a group larger than the margin of victory still refused to vote for the Democrat and instead voted for Jeff Sessions or Nick Saban or somebody else. Those people were making it clear that they were still reliable GOP votes, but just would not vote for Moore, as recommended by Sen Shelby. And that means a majority still voted Republican. And by the way, this was a special election. There was no reason for those people to go to the polls except to have their Republican but non-Moore vote counted. They were making a statement that they were not voting for Jones either. I assume most conservatives who wouldn't vote for Moore simply didn't vote, but that block cared enough to drive to the polls and get their non-Moore and non-Democrat vote recorded.
The change in vote count in the Senate is a good thing for three years. But I don't see any encouraging broader trend in yesterday's results. |
Two things can be true at once. It can be both that Moore is just a stunningly unelectable candidate (who had been elected multiple times) and that it fits a nationwide trend.
538 had an interesting breakdown showing that the results in Alabama are partially specific to this race, and partially of a piece of the shifts in Virginia, New Jersey, Montana, Georgia, Oklahoma, etc. The cratering of GOP support in well-off suburban areas continued, for example.
The piece there has more data, and suggested that the 30-point swing between 2016 and 2018 in Alabama can be about equally attributed (as in about 10 points from each of these) to overall shift away from the GOP, Moore's pre-accusation unelectability, and the accusations themselves. If any of these hadn't been true, he wins, but this election was the perfect storm.
But if that 10-point shift away from the GOP that we have also seen in other data points remains true, that is pretty huge. It doesn't win you other races in Alabama, but it could win you a lot of races in other place. Then, if you add on the likelihood that the forces that nominated Moore mean that a few other terrible candidates get nominated (maybe not Moore level bad, but remember Sharron Angle, Todd Akin, and Carl Paladino? Christine O'Donnell?) you might be looking at 15-point or higher shifts.
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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 12/14/17 11:38 am ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
And even with all of that, 48% of voters chose him anyhow.
That doesn't really reassure me of anything good or decent. |
Agree with ArtBest23. "Reassure" is not the word. Frankly, "relief" is more appropriate, to describe my feelings.
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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012
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| Posted: 12/14/17 12:10 pm ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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| PUmatty wrote: |
Two things can be true at once. It can be both that Moore is just a stunningly unelectable candidate (who had been elected multiple times) and that it fits a nationwide trend.
538 had an interesting breakdown showing that the results in Alabama are partially specific to this race, and partially of a piece of the shifts in Virginia, New Jersey, Montana, Georgia, Oklahoma, etc. The cratering of GOP support in well-off suburban areas continued, for example.
The piece there has more data, and suggested that the 30-point swing between 2016 and 2018 in Alabama can be about equally attributed (as in about 10 points from each of these) to overall shift away from the GOP, Moore's pre-accusation unelectability, and the accusations themselves. If any of these hadn't been true, he wins, but this election was the perfect storm.
But if that 10-point shift away from the GOP that we have also seen in other data points remains true, that is pretty huge. It doesn't win you other races in Alabama, but it could win you a lot of races in other place. Then, if you add on the likelihood that the forces that nominated Moore mean that a few other terrible candidates get nominated (maybe not Moore level bad, but remember Sharron Angle, Todd Akin, and Carl Paladino? Christine O'Donnell?) you might be looking at 15-point or higher shifts. |
I've been following their analysis fo a while now and tend to agree. This would be consistent with what we have seen in polls and elections over the last year.
It highlights the importance of Democrats finding credible candidates to run in these elections as they are likely to be competitive in a lot of districts that they haven't been recently.
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PUmatty
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| Posted: 12/14/17 12:17 pm ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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| justintyme wrote: |
It highlights the importance of Democrats finding credible candidates to run in these elections as they are likely to be competitive in a lot of districts that they haven't been recently. |
Absolutely. In Virginia, Democrats won in districts where they typically don't even run candidates.
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Howee
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Stonington_QB
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GlennMacGrady
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| Posted: 12/14/17 4:33 pm ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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| Howee wrote: |
May we allow ourselves to look at the senate win in Alabama to be a kind of Silver Lining to the Trump election?
I was thinking this way:
Trump's win set enough women on edge that they became emboldened to finally act out publicly against the sexual predation, especially by prominent, powerful men
(....leads to)
|
The lining may have some silver in it but, in my opinion, also a lot of junk and even poisonous metal. That's not what I want to discuss, however.
It's the assumption, which I've seen elsewhere, that the Trump election was the initial spark that lit Pervnado. While the election, featuring sexual opportunist Trump and sexual predation enabler Hillary, fanned the flames, I think the better view of the initial spark is that it was the Obama administration's DOJ/DOE "Dear Colleague" letter to universities in 2010.
There have been threads on both Area 51 and the WCBB forum discussing this letter and its recent repeal. To crudely summarize, the 2010 letter, based on now debunked data that 1 in 6 women on college campuses are victims of sexual assaults, threatened to withdraw all Title IX money from universities unless they took swift and severe action against accused men, including faculty kangaroo courts that gave the accused men no due process rights whatsoever and no right of review or appeal. There were so many disciplinary actions taken against accused male students based on flimsy or completely bogus evidence that much of academia itself finally rebelled against the one-sided and unfair procedures.
This Jacobin atmosphere of sexual "assault" allegations on university campuses then seeped slowly but inexorably over into the business and political spheres, where it was accelerated by media outlets desperately seeking ratings and political agendas. |
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 12/14/17 5:42 pm ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
| This Jacobin atmosphere of sexual "assault" allegations on university campuses then seeped slowly but inexorably over into the business and political spheres, where it was accelerated by media outlets desperately seeking ratings and political agendas. |
Please, Glenn. Say something to make me believe you DO understand that sexual assault 'allegations' are MOST OFTEN based on real experience. (I'm thinking you've never known a person that was sexually assaulted, maybe?)
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 12/14/17 8:02 pm ::: |
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I looked at the exit polling data and was surprised that there was not as much of a gender gap among whites as I had expected. Approximately 73% of white men and 63% of white women voted for Moore. I'm not sure what to make of that. Is it that if you get your news solely from Fox News or even further right wing media you were able to truly don't believe any of the allegations against Moore?
If one thing is clear from this election it is the importance of fighting any type of voter suppression acts and doing everything possible to ensure that people register to vote and then follow through and actually vote in 2018 to at the very least win back the House as well as governorships. And even though it is 3 years out, to start making people realize how important it is to vote in 2020 for state legislatures so we don't need to win 54% of the vote just to get 50% of the representatives. That would be more than a silver lining, it would be a full-fledged rainbow.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 12/15/17 10:09 am ::: |
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| calbearman76 wrote: |
| I looked at the exit polling data and was surprised that there was not as much of a gender gap among whites as I had expected. |
What I think stands out from the exit polling data is that the final vote basically matches Trump's approval rating by this who voted. If that is true everywhere, keep in mind that Trump's approval rating has not hit 40% in months.
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Howee
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pilight
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| Posted: 12/15/17 3:58 pm ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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| Howee wrote: |
| At the very least, one can deduce that white voters in Alabama value The GOP label over Real Morals and Values. And that (thankfully) the non-white voters are stepping up to the plate to counteract that entrenched reality. |
The non-white voters are even more attached to the Democrat label.
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justintyme
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| Posted: 12/15/17 4:06 pm ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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| pilight wrote: |
| Howee wrote: |
| At the very least, one can deduce that white voters in Alabama value The GOP label over Real Morals and Values. And that (thankfully) the non-white voters are stepping up to the plate to counteract that entrenched reality. |
The non-white voters are even more attached to the Democrat label. |
There is no evidence of this at work. Doug Jones was not an accused child molester so it was not a case of valuing label over morals and values.
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pilight
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| Posted: 12/15/17 4:11 pm ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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| justintyme wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
| Howee wrote: |
| At the very least, one can deduce that white voters in Alabama value The GOP label over Real Morals and Values. And that (thankfully) the non-white voters are stepping up to the plate to counteract that entrenched reality. |
The non-white voters are even more attached to the Democrat label. |
There is no evidence of this at work. Doug Jones was not an accused child molester so it was not a case of valuing label over morals and values. |
We don't really know what the voters valued. Everyone's decision rule is different.
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justintyme
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| Posted: 12/15/17 4:26 pm ::: Re: Definition of a 'Silver Lining'? |
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| pilight wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
| Howee wrote: |
| At the very least, one can deduce that white voters in Alabama value The GOP label over Real Morals and Values. And that (thankfully) the non-white voters are stepping up to the plate to counteract that entrenched reality. |
The non-white voters are even more attached to the Democrat label. |
There is no evidence of this at work. Doug Jones was not an accused child molester so it was not a case of valuing label over morals and values. |
We don't really know what the voters valued. Everyone's decision rule is different. |
Now you are just debating in philosophical circles which deconstruct into meaninglessness.
Of course there are no such thing as universal values as they are ultimately subjective. But that wasn't what Howee was suggesting. Written in another way, these voters "valued" their GOP alliance and all it represented over "not putting a child molesting pedophile in office".
Howee was pointing out that this prioritization is fucked up. Hell, as I wrote to begin most of this, "don't put the pedophiles in charge" has got to be one of the lowest conceivable bars of human decency out there. It may not be a universal value, but it sure as hell has to be about as close as you can get to one...
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tfan
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| Posted: 12/15/17 5:08 pm ::: |
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I think Trump/Entertainment Tonight deserve most, if not all of the credit for the sexual harassment landslide, but I have talked to people who think it started with the 10/2017 Weinstein article (which the writer had tried to publish "months" earlier and which he said he had worked on for 10 months which could put the start of his writing before the Trump tape).
But the black lining to Trump's election is that now illegal immigration has become a sacred cow on the left. Whereas in the past, icons of the sanctity party like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have made statements against illegal immigration, nowadays they would want to wave to the crowd from a float in a ticker tape parade for them. Although I think they would probably fight having the people who employ illegal aliens in the parade as well.
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