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Pac 12 2017-18

 
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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 1662
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 11/02/17 9:17 pm    ::: Pac 12 2017-18 Reply Reply with quote

Cal opens its season tonight with an exhibition game against Vanguard (#4 ranked NAIA team who will play UCLA Sunday.)

Kristen Anigwe will not be playing due to a minor injury, but should be back before Cal plays UConn on November 17. My biggest interests for this game are the improvements of sophomores CJ West and Jaelyn Brown as well as transfer Sara Anastasieska. West looked good at the end of last season and will get big minutes tonight without Anigwe. Brown should battle with Penina Davidson to be a starter after Courtney Range's graduation. Brown showed some flashes last season but needs to play more under control to reach her full potential. Sara A. is an Australian who sat out last year after transferring from UTSA. Last year Cal's biggest weakness was 3pt shooting. They made less than 5 3pt shots per game and, aside from Asha Thomas and Range, were a combined 62-234 (26.5%). The lack of outside shooting allowed teams to collapse down on Anigwe and limit her effectiveness. If Sara A. can be an outside threat she will get meaningful minutes for the Bears.

Cal's top freshman appears to be Kianna Smith. She should battle with M'Cole Cayton for playing time at the big guard position. Cayton was a strong defensive player as a freshman and started the last 12 games of the season, but showed little offense. Smith appears to be a stronger offensive player. Mikayla Cowling and Asha Thomas will be the other starters.

Overall the Bears appear to be at least as good as last year, and could be significantly better. I expect the Bears to finish with 10 or 11 wins in the Pac 12, good enough for 4th or 5th.


stever



Joined: 16 Nov 2004
Posts: 6295
Location: Ann Arbor


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PostPosted: 11/06/17 1:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Quote:
Pac-12 Preview: Will 7 teams make the NCAA tournament again?


https://summitthoops.com/2017/11/06/pac-12-preview-will-7-teams-get-tournament-bids-again/



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elsie



Joined: 08 Apr 2016
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PostPosted: 11/06/17 1:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I understand that Gonzaga beat them in their unofficial scrimmage a couple of weeks ago..


myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 11/06/17 2:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

stever wrote:
Quote:
Pac-12 Preview: Will 7 teams make the NCAA tournament again?


https://summitthoops.com/2017/11/06/pac-12-preview-will-7-teams-get-tournament-bids-again/


I think six max, and more likely only five. Lots of teams are 'down' from last year and then when they start beating each other up in league it will be hard for those who haven't already proven themselves in OOC. JMO.



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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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PostPosted: 12/01/17 5:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The month of November has shown that the Pac 12 is once again a good conference, going about 9 deep, but has few real quality wins. This is my ranking on December 1:

1) UCLA (6-1, Best Win - Baylor, Worst Loss - UConn)
2) Oregon (6-1, Texas A&M, Louisville)


3) Stanford (5-3, Belmont, Ohio St.)
4) Oregon St. (3-2, North Dakota, Duke)
5) Arizona St. (5-2, Fresno St., Green Bay)
6) California (4-2, St Mary's, Missouri)
7) USC (7-0, Purdue, None)
8) Colorado (6-1, Miami, North Carolina)
9) Utah (5-1, Purdue, Alabama)
10) Washington St. (3-4, Rutgers, UC Davis)
11) Washington (2-3, Creighton, Idaho St.)

12) Arizona (2-4, Iona, CS Northridge)

Outside of the top 2 teams there isn't a signature win in the conference, but there isn't a loss to an unrated team among the top 7 teams. UCLA and Oregon have separated themselves from the field and look like top 10 teams. Stanford took Ohio St to overtime without Brittany McPhee. Alanna Smith and DiJonai Carrington have emerged as stars and the team is best positioned to move closer to the top two. Oregon St is very young. they have played two tough games and lost both, by 5 at home to Notre Dame and by 7 on the road to Duke. The rest of their non-conference schedule is weak so they won't really get tested until the new year.

Arizona State lost twice in Cancun to Mississippi St and Green Bay. They have one more tough non-conference game at Florida St. So far they look like a top 50, but not a top 25 team. The same can be said of Cal. They lost by 3 at home to Missouri, but more importantly they lost starting guard to a season ending injury. Freshman Kianna Smith has filled in well, but it once again leaves the Bears with no backcourt depth. They also have one more chance for a big non-conference win at Kentucky. USC is a wild card. They are the only undefeated team but they have not played a ranked team. The Trojans next three games are at Loyola Marymount, at Texas A&M and a neutral site game with Middle Tennessee. If they can win all three they could move into the top half of the conference.

Colorado blew a large lead at North Carolina or they would also be undefeated. I expect the Buffaloes will upset at least one top team in Boulder, but I doubt they play well enough on the road to climb into the top half. Utah is also much better at home than on the road (altitude helps) but they don't seem to be as good as Colorado. Washington St has been disappointing so far, but their win over Rutgers gives hope that they may be better than they initially showed. Washington is not as bad as feared. New coach Jodi Wynn has the team playing hard and they will win some games. On the other hand Arizona once again looks bad, and while I have no doubt they will pull an upset or two, I see them still residing in the cellar.

The conference should get at least 5 teams into the NCAA tournament. Whether it gets more will depend on how the teams separate themselves during the conference schedule. Over .500 gives you a very good chance, at .500 you may need a win over UCLA or Oregon, and below .500 will be tough. There won't be a 6-12 team making it like Cal did last season.


myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 12/03/17 2:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pretty accurate I'd say. I'm kinda disappointed in the level of play. Still we haven't lost too many that we should have won except for the bottomish teams. But also not much in the way of signature wins other than UCLA - Baylor...and that one a lot of people are putting an asterisk by. Stanford came close but no cigar. I suspect A&M isn't as good as some thought so maybe that win by Oregon isn't as outstanding as it looks either. Looking forward to what conference play will bring. I think it'll be pretty competitive from top to close to bottom.



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patsweetpat



Joined: 14 Jul 2010
Posts: 1959
Location: Culver City, CA


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PostPosted: 12/04/17 9:04 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
But also not much in the way of signature wins other than UCLA - Baylor...and that one a lot of people are putting an asterisk by.


Sigh. None of those people better be on the flippin' tournament selection committee.


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