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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012
Posts: 8407
Location: Northfield, MN
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 Posted: 11/07/17 11:52 pm ::: Elections 2017 |
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So the Daily Kos put up a "scorecard" of swing elections to watch and the Democrats won or are leading in literally every single one of them.
This election was disastrous for the Republicans, and highlights just how difficult of a position they are in entering the midterms unless something dramatically changes. The GOP base loves Trump and will force primary candidates to embrace him, while the swing voters despise him and will make them pay the price in the general elections.
Based upon tonight's results, right now there is a high probability that the House will flip in 2018.
Also, the Washington senate looks like it is going to flip to Democratic control, which means that the Democrats will control every legislative body and every governorship on the West Coast.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 5155
Location: Carson City
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| Posted: 11/08/17 2:09 am ::: |
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I wish I could be as confident as you. Certainly today was a good day for the Dems, and would wind up even better if they get control of the Virginia House of Delegates, but we are still a year away from the midterms. There is still a strong inherent advantage for the Republicans due to the gerrymandered districts. Right now I still see it as just about a coin flip, maybe a slight advantage for the democrats, but certainly not a high probability.
Also remember that it will be very difficult for the Democrats to win the Senate. They would have to sweep the board, including Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee.
I guess what I'm saying is celebrate tonight's results but don't make more of it than it is. And my no means, DON'T GET COMPLACENT. The next 3 years will be difficult and we can't let our guard down.
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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012
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Location: Northfield, MN
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| Posted: 11/08/17 2:40 am ::: |
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Yeah, "high probability" was definitely me overselling it in my exuberance.
I would say that right now the Democrats are slight favorites to flip the House.
The Senate really isn't up for grabs this midterm election (barring some historically bad showings from the GOP), so the House is really where it is at. I just hope the Supreme Court justices can all hold on for a few more years until after 2020. Another Gorsuch or two could really destory our country for years to come.
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jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 21045
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| Posted: 11/08/17 3:18 am ::: |
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| lol. Good old Democrats. I know, I know. They're better than other people.
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Queenie
Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Posts: 18029
Location: Queens
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| Posted: 11/08/17 7:58 am ::: |
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It was fascinating to watch some of the local races. And it was nice to see the people using blatantly racist flyers go down in flames, too.
The City Council district next to mine has a margin of about 130 votes now. There's apparently a Virginia state district that's at a 12-vote margin. If y'all needed proof that your vote matters, at least on the local level, here it is.
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Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009
Posts: 8939
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12851
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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| Posted: 11/08/17 9:57 am ::: |
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| Ex-Ref wrote: |
This might be my favorite. I mean, it's one thing to lose, but to lose to a person that is the embodiment of everything your career has been against? I'm thinking that Pence's blood must be boiling about now. That gives me some pleasure. 
| Quote: |
Democrat Danica Roem, defeated incumbent Republican candidate Del. Bob Marshall Tuesday to become the first openly transgender elected official in Virginia.
Marshall, 73, is a staunch social conservative who has served in Virginia's House of Delegates since 1992. He once referred to himself as the state's "chief homophobe" and introduced a "bathroom bill" earlier this year that would have required people to use the restroom that matches the gender listed on their birth certificate. The bill never made it out of a Republican-led committee.
Marshall also authored Virginia's constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman, and sponsored a bill banning homosexuals from the Virginia National Guard. |
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/11/07/virginia-elects-its-first-openly-transgender-delegate-state-house/842585001/ |
Agreed. Comeuppance personified.
As for the 2018s, it all depends on voter suppression, white women getting their collective shit together, and black turnout.
If we can dump Trumpism onto the ash heap of history next year, then we can get back to ground zero and battling the centrist, Corporate Democratic party.
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stever
Joined: 16 Nov 2004
Posts: 6916
Location: https://womensbasketballdaily.net
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| Posted: 11/08/17 10:14 am ::: |
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| Ex-Ref wrote: |
This might be my favorite. I mean, it's one thing to lose, but to lose to a person that is the embodiment of everything your career has been against? I'm thinking that Pence's blood must be boiling about now. That gives me some pleasure.
| Quote: |
Democrat Danica Roem, defeated incumbent Republican candidate Del. Bob Marshall Tuesday to become the first openly transgender elected official in Virginia.
Marshall, 73, is a staunch social conservative who has served in Virginia's House of Delegates since 1992. He once referred to himself as the state's "chief homophobe" and introduced a "bathroom bill" earlier this year that would have required people to use the restroom that matches the gender listed on their birth certificate. The bill never made it out of a Republican-led committee.
Marshall also authored Virginia's constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman, and sponsored a bill banning homosexuals from the Virginia National Guard. |
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/11/07/virginia-elects-its-first-openly-transgender-delegate-state-house/842585001/ |
Yeah, she rocks
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Queenie
Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Posts: 18029
Location: Queens
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| Posted: 11/08/17 4:07 pm ::: |
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| Someone asked her about him, and she said that she doesn't speak badly of her constituents, and Bob is one of her constituents now, which is the perfect combination of grace and "Ha-ha, fuck you".
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Luuuc
#NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
Posts: 16355
Location: Chicago
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| Posted: 11/08/17 7:56 pm ::: |
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| Queenie wrote: |
| Someone asked her about him, and she said that she doesn't speak badly of her constituents, and Bob is one of her constituents now, which is the perfect combination of grace and "Ha-ha, fuck you". |
That is amazing.
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stever
Joined: 16 Nov 2004
Posts: 6916
Location: https://womensbasketballdaily.net
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| Posted: 11/08/17 11:10 pm ::: |
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Ex-Ref
Joined: 04 Oct 2009
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| Posted: 11/09/17 7:13 am ::: |
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| Queenie wrote: |
| Someone asked her about him, and she said that she doesn't speak badly of her constituents, and Bob is one of her constituents now, which is the perfect combination of grace and "Ha-ha, fuck you". |
Love it!!!!!!!
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sambista
Joined: 25 Sep 2004
Posts: 16951
Location: way station of life
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| Posted: 11/09/17 10:35 am ::: |
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| the new york times wrote: |
A black transgender activist, Andrea Jenkins, was elected to the Minneapolis City Council. A Hispanic woman won the mayor’s race in Topeka, Kan. A Sikh man was elected mayor in Hoboken, N.J. Latina, Vietnamese and transgender female candidates won state legislative races. Black candidates were elected lieutenant governor in New Jersey and Virginia. A Liberian refugee in Helena, Mont., was elected mayor.
Mark Keam, a Korean-American Democrat who was re-elected on Tuesday to his seat in Virginia’s House of Delegates, said the wave of first-time minority candidates was a direct response to feeling snipped out of the American picture by Mr. Trump’s policies and divisive language.
“In Trump’s America, people are getting screwed and those getting screwed more than others are people who’ve never had a voice in the government,” Mr. Keam said. “Those are motivations a white guy wouldn’t have.” |
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/08/us/politics/democrats-women-minorities.html
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